Collins traded to Cleveland per Schefter

[Mooch]

I wonder if Belichick felt that Collins's hip problem would linger throughout the season just enough to allow him to play, but not be the explosive athlete that could overcome some of his freelancing mistakes. Combine that with an unwillingness to overspend to re-sign him in the offseason and BB simply cut bait on JC to give the rest of the defense time to gel during the bye week.

 

[tims4wins]

Interesting - here is the question that prompted the BB quote about Lombardi

“Most people seem to be taking Mike Lombardi’s comments regarding the trade as being the opinion of the organization. What are your thoughts on that?”

He certainly didn't deny it.

 

[DJnVa]

I thought comments from the Pats linebackers coach, Brian Flores, in the Globe were interesting:


http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2016/11/01/patriots-locker-room-mixed-reaction-trade/n3BSt47qHLJV6FuBh19U5L/story.html

It almost makes you wonder whether the team at this point, including the coaches other than BB, aren't entirely sure what this was about. Which would suggest that Collins would be less of a locker room problem or bad example and that this was more about contract stuff.

Not sure how much they practice over this next week, but perhaps we'll know more after the bye.

Eh, I'd read that as a guy simply not trashing the guy that was traded away.

 

[DJnVa]

View attachment 13091

Oh, it certainly is.

 

[bakahump]

Evidently he learned about and has embraced this family atmosphere in single day he has spent with the organization.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I don't know about Collins' family, but mine would get steamrolled if we tried to play football together

 

[joe dokes]

I don't know about Collins' family, but mine would get steamrolled if we tried to play football together

Now that I think about it, do you ever hear anyone on the Patriots, or any former Patriots, referring to the team as "family"?

 

[E5 Yaz]

Now that I think about it, do you ever hear anyone on the Patriots, or any former Patriots, referring to the team as "family"?

Just Bob Kraft

 

[Leather]

Coupled with the remarks yesterday by the LB coach and many of the defensive players, I'm coming to the conclusion that this was solely a BB decision, and that there must have been some specific incident that set BB off. Because there doesn't seem to be any history of Collins having an attitude problem, and freelancer or not, he's one of the more talented guys on the defense. I don't buy that BB belives this will make the team better on the field, or that it was necessary as a business decision.

This seems personal.

Couple of things:

It only seems personal if you start with the premise that it was a rash decision. There's nothing to indicate that it was. And, of course it was solely a BB decision. They all are. Finally, if there were problems between BB and Collins, we probably wouldn't be hearing about them, because we seldom do. We never heard what happened between the team and Jones after his little police parking lot freak-out, for instance.

History indicates that this was a purely rational decision, that BB decided he wanted Collins gone, and once that decision was made he jettisoned him ASAP to avoid any potential locker room issues and to make sure everyone knew what their roles were, moving forward.

EDIT: I agree with Posnanski's take.

 

[soxfan121]

But..the point is to the contrary: DMAC did speak ot the press .He didn't just speak in bland terms, he went out of his way to praise JC. That would be ordinary for other teams, but in this case he wasn't just spouting a line/not saying anything negative...he was praising in very high terms.

I remember the glowing, loving things said by teammates about Lawyer Milloy, both before and after he led Buffalo to that 31-0 win that had Tom Jackson opining about how they felt about their coach.

You surely remember those teammates praising Milloy, right? So what's the point?

This seems personal.

 

[joe dokes]

History indicates that this was a purely rational decision, that BB decided he wanted Collins gone, and once that decision was made he jettisoned him ASAP to avoid any potential locker room issues and to make sure everyone knew what their roles were, moving forward.

And to get the draft pick for next year when TB is 40, not the year after, when he's 41.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Evidently he learned about and has embraced this family atmosphere in single day he has spent with the organization.

That dinner at the Olive Garden must have been spectacular.

 

[SeoulSoxFan]

Love CHB trying to goad Collins on this piece:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2016/11/02/jamie-collins-was-surprised-trade-but-won-pout-about/nLrabN59ZhzxJJCJHgkfoM/story.html

Collins comes off well:

“I aint’ got no problems with coming here and doing what I got to do. I’m a player and I’m a grown man. I know my job and that’s to do what I got to do. I’m going to come in here and do what’s best for the team. That’s what I always do. This ain’t my first rodeo. Coming out of college (Southern Mississippi) I was 0-12 and they still took me. I’m good in this position. I’m good. Trust me.’’​

 

[Stitch01]

Collins is just trying to say nice things about his new team, Im not going to get hung up on specifics.

 

[tims4wins]

Thought this was interesting - hadn't seen it reported anywhere

Q: Why did you feel like it was better to trade Jamie Collins now rather than let him walk in free agency and receive an equally valuable compensatory pick through that route?

BB: Yeah, well I don't agree with that assessment but regardless, we did what we did.

 

[Shelterdog]

Collins is just trying to say nice things about his new team, Im not going to get hung up on specifics.

And you know what--it probably does seem a lot more like a family or whatever in Cleveland than in New England. Hugh Jackson seems like a nice guy. BB apparently walks by players in the hallway and doesn't say helllo.

Thought this was interesting - hadn't seen it reported anywhere

Q: Why did you feel like it was better to trade Jamie Collins now rather than let him walk in free agency and receive an equally valuable compensatory pick through that route?

BB: Yeah, well I don't agree with that assessment but regardless, we did what we did.

SN and I go back and forth on the "blimpies" trades every now and then but I think it seems pretty clear that BB thinks a 2017 compensatory third round pick is better than a 2018 compensatory third round pick, and there's also the chance that Collins only ends up being worth a 2018 4th round pick.

 

[edmunddantes]

Or it's not 100% certain what the Pats will need to add in the off-season or who might actually be available, so there is no guarantee Collins is getting them a comp pick in 2018 depending on who gets signed, etc.

 

[DourDoerr]

I'd bet BB came to the trade JC decision as a number of factors came to a head.

1. JC wanted a lot of money in 2017 and that would hurt team's chances of signing other valuable players.
2. He'd seen Roberts on the field and liked what he saw. Perhaps even preferred ER.
3. Roberts would be much cheaper in 2017 and that would help team's chances of signing other valuable players.
4. Playing ER more might mean less playing time for JC in a contract year and that'd be a pain in the ass to manage and a distraction to the team (which BB doesn't take lightly).
5. Compensatory pick in 2017 is better than a pick in 2018.
6. By trading JC to a team of BB's choosing, BB keeps control and gets to send him to a non-contender who might then sign him and keep him out of a contender's reach.

All the stars lined up and he pulled the trigger. It was perhaps lucky that the Pats bye week came when it did with regards to the trade deadline. Gave BB enough time and tape to be convinced that ER could handle the workload and/or if JC would get with the program.

 

[tims4wins]

Here's a thought I just had. I would be very curious to see how Collins graded last year after he came back from his "injury". What if he wasn't very good, but the team gave him the benefit of the doubt, which led to trading Jones... and then Collins showed up for 2016 and still didn't play well during the first half of the season, so they decided to move on from him as well. It is entirely possible they planned on trying to sign 2 of the 3 (Collins, Jones, DH); prioritized Collins and DH (maybe because Jones could fetch the biggest trade return); and then Collins regressed and they decided not to keep him either. This could actually mesh with the idea that they offered Collins a contract in the spring; again, maybe they were giving him the benefit of the doubt that his poor play late last year was injury / "illness" related and he would bounce back this year. Just spitballing.

 

[DourDoerr]

SN and I go back and forth on the "blimpies" trades every now and then but I think it seems pretty clear that BB thinks a 2017 compensatory third round pick is better than a 2018 compensatory third round pick...

Given how BB in the past has been able to trade, say, a current year's 2nd rounder for the following year's 1st rounder, he clearly prefers draft picks for an upcoming draft. If he gets a 2017 3rd rounder in the Collins deal, then he's thinking he at least has a chance of flipping it for a 2018 2nd rounder.

 

[GregHarris]

I don't think its 100% certain that Collins will net a 3rd rounder. Playing time is a big factor in comp picks and would be key if Collins turned into a part time player for them, not to mention that the Pats don't get a pick if they acquire a play of Collins caliber in FA (or a lesser pick for a lesser signing). I can totally see why BB would disagree with any statement that declares a 3rd round comp pick a given.

https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/patriots/2016/11/01/how-compensatory-picks-work-nfl-draft/D5tBWzA4tYe9jGEbBxSI3M/story.html

 

[Byrdbrain]

Or it's not 100% certain what the Pats will need to add in the off-season or who might actually be available, so there is no guarantee Collins is getting them a comp pick in 2018 depending on who gets signed, etc.

For some reason people can't seem to grasp this. The trade locks in that there will be draft pick compensation. If Collins left via free agency that compensation could have been wiped out by another signing.
The return isn't great but it is better than you can be certain you would have gotten if it wasn't made.

 

[Super Nomario]

SN and I go back and forth on the "blimpies" trades every now and then but I think it seems pretty clear that BB thinks a 2017 compensatory third round pick is better than a 2018 compensatory third round pick, and there's also the chance that Collins only ends up being worth a 2018 4th round pick.

It seems strange to think about time value of money on a pick with such a low chance statistically of working out, but a few random ideas on why they might rather the 2017 pick than a 2018 one:

• They're not getting any comp picks in 2017, so a barer cupboard of picks than usual
• They have a bunch of pending FAs so they could get comp picks in 2018, and may see value in spreading those picks between 2017 and 2018 rather than having a bunch in 2018
• They lost a 2017 fourth-rounder for Deflategate (though they did pick one up in another trade)
• They are close enough to the draft to have a sense of the talent available, which as I understand it is supposed to be pretty good. They may feel that a pick in this range is more valuable in 2017 than in 2018 based on players (or even a specific player) they expect to be available, more so than the usual Year X / Year X+1 comparison. The Derby (why deal him to a conference rival for a fifth?) and Rowe (why a 2018 pick rather than a 2017?) trades fit with this idea as well

 

[joe dokes]

It seems strange to think about time value of money on a pick with such a low chance statistically of working out, but a few random ideas on why they might rather the 2017 pick than a 2018 one:

• They're not getting any comp picks in 2017, so a barer cupboard of picks than usual
• They have a bunch of pending FAs so they could get comp picks in 2018, and may see value in spreading those picks between 2017 and 2018 rather than having a bunch in 2018
• They lost a 2017 fourth-rounder for Deflategate (though they did pick one up in another trade)
• They are close enough to the draft to have a sense of the talent available, which as I understand it is supposed to be pretty good. They may feel that a pick in this range is more valuable in 2017 than in 2018 based on players (or even a specific player) they expect to be available, more so than the usual Year X / Year X+1 comparison. The Derby (why deal him to a conference rival for a fifth?) and Rowe (why a 2018 pick rather than a 2017?) trades fit with this idea as well

As Volin pointed out, trading Jones ended up netting them Thuney.

 

[tims4wins]

And Mitchell

 

[pappymojo]

Has anyone figured out what the hell happened in the game when the Bills were in the red zone and the Pats got called for 12 men on the field and then had to use a timeout after the penalty?

 

[Shelterdog]

It seems strange to think about time value of money on a pick with such a low chance statistically of working out, but a few random ideas on why they might rather the 2017 pick than a 2018 one:

• They're not getting any comp picks in 2017, so a barer cupboard of picks than usual
• They have a bunch of pending FAs so they could get comp picks in 2018, and may see value in spreading those picks between 2017 and 2018 rather than having a bunch in 2018
• They lost a 2017 fourth-rounder for Deflategate (though they did pick one up in another trade)
• They are close enough to the draft to have a sense of the talent available, which as I understand it is supposed to be pretty good. They may feel that a pick in this range is more valuable in 2017 than in 2018 based on players (or even a specific player) they expect to be available, more so than the usual Year X / Year X+1 comparison. The Derby (why deal him to a conference rival for a fifth?) and Rowe (why a 2018 pick rather than a 2017?) trades fit with this idea as well

The bolded is totally fair.

There are a bunch of reasons why you'd rather have the 2017 pick than whatever you get in comp picks for Collins in 2018 but at the end of the day I'm not sure thinking too much about them helps you. You have like a 90% chance of getting a 25% chance at a decent player (and a 10% chance at a 20% chance if the Browns don't get a third round pick) and you're comparing that with a, what, 70 chance of getting a 25% chance at a decent player in a year (and a 15% chance at a 20% chance?)? Quibble with the numbers, the 2017 pick has more certainity and is thus better but honestly the difference is small enough and uncertainity about the quality of the player, what happens in free agency, how good the 2018 draft is, etc. so great that it would be foolish to put too much weight into measuring the relative expected values of the picks.

 

[joe dokes]

The bolded is totally fair.

There are a bunch of reasons why you'd rather have the 2017 pick than whatever you get in comp picks for Collins in 2018 but at the end of the day I'm not sure thinking too much about them helps you. You have like a 90% chance of getting a 25% chance at a decent player (and a 10% chance at a 20% chance if the Browns don't get a third round pick) and you're comparing that with a, what, 70 chance of getting a 25% chance at a decent player in a year (and a 15% chance at a 20% chance?)? Quibble with the numbers, the 2017 pick has more certainity and is thus better but honestly the difference is small enough and uncertainity about the quality of the player, what happens in free agency, how good the 2018 draft is, etc. so great that it would be foolish to put too much weight into measuring the relative expected values of the picks.

Does the age of the team's most important player factor in?
,

 

[Rick Burlesons Yam Bag]

Randy Moss was in about the same situation, where following the program and not being a distraction was his best route to maximizing his next contract. How did he handle it?

Randy Moss had quit on the Raiders already before he came to the Patriots. Jamie Collins has not done anything other than play really good football and - seemingly - be a good soldier. It is not fair to compare the two of them at all.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Does the age of the team's most important player factor in?
,

No, because BB builds for long term. He's never 'gone for it now' and he likely never will.

 

[joe dokes]

No, because BB builds for long term. He's never 'gone for it now' and he likely never will.

That's true, and is indisputable in the big picture, but I was thinking only in terms of the difference between getting the pick in the 2017 draft or 2018 draft.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Randy Moss had quit on the Raiders already before he came to the Patriots. Jamie Collins has not done anything other than play really good football and - seemingly - be a good soldier. It is not fair to compare the two of them at all.

Nice job of inserting your own context rather than the post that I responded to.

Edit: Never mind, I think I see what you're saying.

 

[Tony C]

We may be taking past each other, but I think we are viewing it differently. They speak blandly about themselves. They often go out of their way to praise players that aren't on their team. I guess i don't see that as much difference as a player exiting.

Either way, if DMac thinks he was their best defensive player, I think he's delusional. Argue all day how much or little Collins fell off the last year and a half, but I don't think anyone is going to suggest he's been their best defender.

I mean did DMac seek out a reporter and make a point to gets his words on record? Or did someone ask him after practice or at a press conference and he answered? I'm not sure why we expect him to piss on his grave or not possibly be a bit over the top about a guy he probably had (and presumably would like to maintain) a personal relationship with.

No, you're right (and I mis-read your post a bit -- sorry about that, the "talking past each other" is on me). It becomes tea leaf reading as neither of us can claim to know what the players think or what DMac really meant to say. At the end of the day, I am in the blind faith in Bill camp and I definitely agree Collins isn't their best defender, it's just that DMac's words (and intonation?) gave me a bit of pause, is all.

 

[E5 Yaz]

This is going to be a long two weeks

 

[dbn]

This is going to be a long two weeks

Two weeks are two weeks; they can't be any longer or shorter, Einstein.

 

[joe dokes]

Two weeks are two weeks; they can't be any longer or shorter, Einstein.

What if we are approaching the speed of light?

 

[dbn]

This thread has derailed.

 

[Reverend]

I heard Phil Perry on T&R this morning talking about how surprised he was at the Collins trade. After the trade he spoke with Patricia, who was very complimentary of Collins, and said that its necessary to allow players to have leeway to make split second decisions on the field.

Perry also mentioned that Collins was well-liked by teammates and that he had never heard anything negative about Collins as a teammate. This is generally consistent with what most of the local guys are saying.

Coupled with the remarks yesterday by the LB coach and many of the defensive players, I'm coming to the conclusion that this was solely a BB decision, and that there must have been some specific incident that set BB off. Because there doesn't seem to be any history of Collins having an attitude problem, and freelancer or not, he's one of the more talented guys on the defense. I don't buy that BB belives this will make the team better on the field, or that it was necessary as a business decision.

This seems personal.

I think there is an argument to be made that, depending on how one defines the terms, that, based on the two bolded parts, that statement falls into self-contradiction.

In keeping with the physics theme, talent is only a potential, so it only matters in application.

Belichick may be a mad scientist, but he's also an engineer*.

And you know what--it probably does seem a lot more like a family or whatever in Cleveland than in New England. Hugh Jackson seems like a nice guy. BB apparently walks by players in the hallway and doesn't say helllo.

Totally. To build on SD's point here--are we sure everyone's in agreement on whether or not being a family is a good or a bad thing here?

I mean, I guess it's... nice?

Seriously though--follow the implications about family and consider it in the context of the JoePos piece linked to above. Family means listening to stupid ideas because they come from family. Family means tolerating behavior that would otherwise be unacceptable simply because they are family. Family means pretending that someone isn't being a fucking idiot simply because they are family.

There might be reasons to be restrained in the articulation of harsh truths for reasons related to team cohesion, but does it's worth parsing and considering if we think Belichick: 1) does; and 2) should run the team as family.

Unless you mean, well, a certain kind of family, which brings us back to the JoePos piece.




*You like THAT @dbn ?

 

[Stitch01]

Hard to say for sure, but Im about 75-80% confident the Jones move gets made anyways.

 

[DJnVa]

This thread has derailed.

IS THAT THE IDEAL GAS LAW??????

BRADY WAS FRAMED!!!

 

[dbn]

IS THAT THE IDEAL GAS LAW??????

BRADY WAS FRAMED!!!

That is a common misconception, but it's actually the Einstein equations. Let me explain.

* R_mu,nu is called the Ricci tensor, which is closely related to the RICO law. It allows for punishments to be made to members of a cheat-y organization even without direct evidence linking that member to an offense.

* Tau_mu,nu is the stress-energy tensor. It describes the flux density of energy and momentum. In layman's terms, that means once enough energy has been put into a hissy-fit, and the resulting story has gained enough momentum, railroading is a forgone conclusion.

* g_mu,nu is the metric tensor. As its name implies, it tells us how to measure out punishment. However, the key is that g_mu,nu is modified by...

* ... R, which is the scalar curvature. It allows the punishment metric to be meted out on a curve.

SCIENCE.

 

[joe dokes]

* Tau_mu,nu is the stress-energy tensor. It describes the flux density of energy and momentum. In layman's terms, that means once enough energy has been put into a hissy-fit, and the resulting story has gained enough momentum, railroading is a forgone conclusion.
SCIENCE.

I thought Tau was the bad news in Kevin Turner's brain?

 

[Dogman]

I split out part of this discussion to the new thread. I think it will be an interesting discussion.

 

[Dogman]

SJH, it won't let me move your post.

 

[pokey_reese]

That is a common misconception, but it's actually the Einstein equations. Let me explain.

* R_mu,nu is called the Ricci tensor, which is closely related to the RICO law. It allows for punishments to be made to members of a cheat-y organization even without direct evidence linking that member to an offense.

* Tau_mu,nu is the stress-energy tensor. It describes the flux density of energy and momentum. In layman's terms, that means once enough energy has been put into a hissy-fit, and the resulting story has gained enough momentum, railroading is a forgone conclusion.

* g_mu,nu is the metric tensor. As its name implies, it tells us how to measure out punishment. However, the key is that g_mu,nu is modified by...

* ... R, which is the scalar curvature. It allows the punishment metric to be meted out on a curve.

SCIENCE.

I unconditionally love this post, and wish it were short enough to go into my sig. Seems to really compliment the one I have now.

 

[Bellhorn]

That is a common misconception, but it's actually the Einstein equations. Let me explain.

So THAT'S where Mike Kensil got confused. It all makes sense now.