Cutting the Cord Early. How Have the Sox Done?

[Max Power]

I don’t necessarily miss what you’re describing, but what I do miss is the days when I could just be excited about getting a new player - like I was when they signed Manny - instead of immediately switching into hyper-analytical mode, which always leads to this “yeah, but look at all those years and dollars!!!” mindset.

I was going to say that people would be aghast at the Manny deal nowadays, and I think that is true, but I also remember a lot of people saying they were against it at the time. And I've also noticed a growing segment of baseball fans who are in favor of teams spending more of their money these days. But I still think people would savage the 2023 equivalent of a Manny deal. "He doesn't play defense, going to be ugly when he turns 35!"

It helps that there were no real payroll limits back then. There was a ton of talk about how much money Manny was getting, but never much concern about it having an effect on who else the team was able to sign. And the freely available steroids made the back years of long contracts less likely to be a total waste.

These days the contracts are so long, the CBT draft and IFA penalties so harsh, and aging curve so steep that every long contract looks terrible the moment it's signed.

 

[JM3]

If you predicted those two would still be good I will be your biggest supporter here for future predictions.

if you are posting hindsight Got Ya‘s in multiple threads, I withdraw my support.

Predicting that Wacha/Eovaldi would be better than Kluber/Pivetta this year wouldn't have been hard. The issue is what impact would locking Wacha/Eovaldi up for 3 or 4 years have on the Red Sox in '24-'26 when their window opens wider.

 

[voidfunkt]

Predicting that Wacha/Eovaldi would be better than Kluber/Pivetta this year wouldn't have been hard. The issue is what impact would locking Wacha/Eovaldi up for 3 or 4 years have on the Red Sox in '24-'26 when their window opens wider.

Wacha is signed for like 16 mil and Eovaldi is somewhere in that ballpark. These are not albatross contracts in 2023 and will not be in 2026.

The small market mindset folks have boxed themselves into over the last decade is really dumb. We're all having a ton of fun cheering for the last place Red Sox though I guess. Can't wait for 2026 when someone is justifying why we can't sign or extend someone because what about 2029 and 2030?!

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Wacha is signed for like 16 mil and Eovaldi is somewhere in that ballpark. These are not albatross contracts in 2023 and will not be in 2026.

The small market mindset folks have boxed themselves into over the last decade is really dumb. We're all having a ton of fun cheering for the last place Red Sox though I guess. Can't wait for 2026 when someone is justifying why we can't sign or extend someone because what about 2029 and 2030?!

Signing long term deals is almost never a good idea, even for the big budget teams. I don't think it would be hypocritical for someone to be hesitant to sign a big long deal in 2023 and 2026 and 2030. But it is a necessary part of doing business in MLB so they'll have to give them to somebody at some point. Questioning each of those along the lines of "is this the right one to extend?" isn't necessarily hypocrisy.

Regarding Wacha and Eovaldi, they misread their markets last winter and that is at least part of why they're no longer in Boston (and can't be ignored). We know the Sox made an offer to Eovaldi, supposedly in line with if not better than he got in Texas, and he turned it down in pursuit of more. So the Sox moved on. The alternatives would be they wait him out and potentially get left in the cold with possibly worse options than Kluber available, or they up their offer and increase the tail-end risk. I would guess that if you asked Bloom in November if he'd take those two guys (or at least one of them) on the deals they ended up signing, he'd say yes. But those guys weren't accepting those offers in November or early December. And rightly or wrongly, Bloom didn't want to wait until late December or February to get his pitching locked up. Timing matters and what the players themselves do matters. It's not all about the desires and wants of the front office.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

But Bloom did wait until January to get his pitching locked up- that’s when they signed Kluber, which officially ended their interest in Eovaldi. Of course, they couldn’t wait forever, I agree- and they likely thought the difference between the two pitchers likely production was minimal anyways, which was a reasonable enough perspective at the time, even if the first few months of it hasn’t played out. It’s not like Nate finished the season strong.

It’s unfortunate that they seem to have just missed out on several players- Eflin, Eovaldi- who could have really helped, or course the flip side is there’s an alternate world where they got Abreu instead of Yoshida or something and are worse off .

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Cross posting

Just wanted to point out that Wacha and Eovaldi are a combined 14-4, 2.67 ERA in 148.1 IP over 24 starts (nearly 6.1 IP per start).

Seems to me the 2023 Red Sox might be pretty good if they had that kind of performance at the top of the rotation.

But shouldn’t the FO stay away from signing injury prone players???

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

But Bloom did wait until January to get his pitching locked up- that’s when they signed Kluber, which officially ended their interest in Eovaldi. Of course, they couldn’t wait forever, I agree- and they likely thought the difference between the two pitchers likely production was minimal anyways, which was a reasonable enough perspective at the time, even if the first few months of it hasn’t played out. It’s not like Nate finished the season strong.

It’s unfortunate that they seem to have just missed out on several players- Eflin, Eovaldi- who could have really helped, or course the flip side is there’s an alternate world where they got Abreu instead of Yoshida or something and are worse off .

Reports that they came to terms with Kluber were abound shortly after Christmas. The deal was only made official in January. Presumably they'd been talking for a bit before the initial rumors began.

For what it's worth, there are numerous articles saying the Sox and Kluber came to terms published on December 28. Then a story on December 31 saying that Eovaldi came back asking if the offer to him was still available and was told no. So regardless of the exact dates, the timeline was that the Sox moved on to Kluber (and spent on Jansen and Martin and Yoshida) after Eovaldi turned down what they considered their best offer, and he came back to them too late.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

I hate to rehash 2008, but Manny being gone is not the reason they didn't win it all. I place that blame more on the shoulders of Schilling, who HAD to do it his way and basically stole a year of money from the team, and Bartolo Colón, who bailed on the team shortly after the deadline when they told him he didn't have a spot in the rotation (which was also a mistake). Had Fat Bart stayed, I would assume he'd have started over Wakefield or, if he had been a team player, could have provided better middle inning relief than Paul Byrd. But, had Schilling done what the FO wanted, MAYBE he pitches in the playoffs and they win it all again. They were certainly better than that Phillies team.

 

[Max Power]

Kluber was the biggest miss of the offseason for the front office, but he did fit into the mold of pitchers they were looking for. The priority was low walk rate pitchers and Kluber led the league in fewest walks per 9 last year. This year he's up to 3.8 from 1.2 and he's become totally unplayable.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

I hate to rehash 2008, but Manny being gone is not the reason they didn't win it all. I place that blame more on the shoulders of Schilling, who HAD to do it his way and basically stole a year of money from the team, and Bartolo Colón, who bailed on the team shortly after the deadline when they told him he didn't have a spot in the rotation (which was also a mistake). Had Fat Bart stayed, I would assume he'd have started over Wakefield or, if he had been a team player, could have provided better middle inning relief than Paul Byrd. But, had Schilling done what the FO wanted, MAYBE he pitches in the playoffs and they win it all again. They were certainly better than that Phillies team.

Isn’t this the opposite? I thought Schilling followed the teams plan and then threatened to sue them over it?

https://www.espn.com/mlb/spring2008/news/story?id=3251672

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Isn’t this the opposite? I thought Schilling followed the teams plan and then threatened to sue them over it?

https://www.espn.com/mlb/spring2008/news/story?id=3251672

Hmm, maybe I'm misrembering 15 years later, but I thought he refused to follow their plan at first, then finally caved and got the surgery they wanted him to get, far too late to get back and contribute that year, which ultimately ended his career?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Hmm, maybe I'm misrembering 15 years later, but I thought he refused to follow their plan at first, then finally caved and got the surgery they wanted him to get, far too late to get back and contribute that year, which ultimately ended his career?

Either way, screw him (and Colon, who completely quit on the team).

 

[greenmountains]

Either way, screw him (and Colon, who completely quit on the team).

Really? Curt Schilling? Really?
That's crazy revisionists history. This is a man that put it all on the line in 2004. No one...no one.... did more for his team when he could have packed it in.

I know it's easy to crap all over him today....but what CF'ing Schilling did in October 2004 is the stuff that makes you a Red Sox legend (and a baseball legend)

 

[BaseballJones]

Really? Curt Schilling? Really?
That's crazy revisionists history. This is a man that put it all on the line in 2004. No one...no one.... did more for his team when he could have packed it in.

I know it's easy to crap all over him today....but what CF'ing Schilling did in October 2004 is the stuff that makes you a Red Sox legend (and a baseball legend)

In 2007, at age 40, he went 9-8 with a 3.87 era and was went 3-0 in the playoffs with a 3.00 era. That included a must-win game 6 against Cleveland where he threw 7 great innings.

His post-baseball nonsense doesn't, in any way, cheapen or lessen what he did for the Red Sox.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Hmm, maybe I'm misrembering 15 years later, but I thought he refused to follow their plan at first, then finally caved and got the surgery they wanted him to get, far too late to get back and contribute that year, which ultimately ended his career?

Definitely the other way around. Sox doctors wanted rest/rehab. He got a second opinion from the doctor that had operated on his shoulder previously, who wanted to operate immediately. Pretty sure it was that doctor who operated when the team finally relented. Had he gotten surgery in the off-season when it was first recommended, he might have been back by August or so. Instead, he had the surgery in June and was lost for the year.

 

[trekfan55]

When it comes to free agents, teams don't "let players walk". Players sign wherever they choose.

I think this is very important to point out. That's why they are free agents after all.

Also, I think it's important the few free agents are available right after the first 6 years of team control. Many sign extensions with their teams, so that when they are available thet are already aging. Few exceptions to this are cases where the player is available and the contract is more pallatable. Manny was one of them. So was Arod. I think nowadays more teams are becoming more and more agressive in signing extensions for good money so that even Boras clients sign them (ie Xander).

Really? Curt Schilling? Really?
That's crazy revisionists history. This is a man that put it all on the line in 2004. No one...no one.... did more for his team when he could have packed it in.

I know it's easy to crap all over him today....but what CF'ing Schilling did in October 2004 is the stuff that makes you a Red Sox legend (and a baseball legend)

We seem to forget (or maybe not) that in 2008 the Sox were one game away from the WS (took it to game 7 vs the Rays). Yes ot took one of the most amazing comebacks anyone has ever seen in Game 5. A 41 year old Schilling may have helped, but that team had its share of "had this not happened" events. Baseball wise I never thought is was fair to blame Schilling (and we had ample discussion here back then too).

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

Either way, screw him (and Colon, who completely quit on the team).

Well, upon revisiting the history, Schilling is probably not to blame. But, yeah, fuck that fat, ugly fuck.

 

[lexrageorge]

I don't know why people are so insistent on rewriting Curt Schilling history. A simple search on Google will do wonders.

Schilling signed a one year contract offer from the Sox almost immediately after it was made. IIRC, it was around $8M. Later that winter, Schilling was diagnosed with a serious and essentially career threatening shoulder injury, one he had likely pitched through in 2007. Schilling wanted to undergo surgery immediately, which would have cost him the 2008 season and 90% chance of costing him his 2009 and all future seasons as well. The Sox instead suggested waiting and attempted a rest/rehab program, but his shoulder failed to respond, pretty much ending his career.

Schilling's absence hurt in the 2008 post season. So did Beckett's untimely lat injury (he got shelled in Game 2), an 0-14 slump by Ellsbury, poor hitting by Papi and Wake, and an unexpectedly ineffective Jon Lester in Game 3. And the Rays had a real solid team with the luxury of using David Price as a bullpen ace.

Not sure why we even need to be bitter about 2008. The 2007-08 seasons were a great run and a lot of fun to watch.

 

[TFisNEXT]

In 2007, at age 40, he went 9-8 with a 3.87 era and was went 3-0 in the playoffs with a 3.00 era. That included a must-win game 6 against Cleveland where he threw 7 great innings.

His post-baseball nonsense doesn't, in any way, cheapen or lessen what he did for the Red Sox.

Yep, whatever his post-career off-the-field nonsense has been, Schilling is the absolute last person I'd cast blame on about not doing whatever he could to help the team win on the field during his time with Boston. The Red Sox fucked up before 2008 in trying to have him rest instead of surgery. We have no idea if Schilling would have made a difference in the Rays ALCS series anyway, but I don't blame him for missing that season.

 

[JM3]

Wacha is signed for like 16 mil and Eovaldi is somewhere in that ballpark. These are not albatross contracts in 2023 and will not be in 2026.

The small market mindset folks have boxed themselves into over the last decade is really dumb. We're all having a ton of fun cheering for the last place Red Sox though I guess. Can't wait for 2026 when someone is justifying why we can't sign or extend someone because what about 2029 and 2030?!

Wacha's contract is a bit complicated, but it's more of a $26m contract & Eovaldi is 2/$34m plus incentives, plus a vesting $20m player option for '25.

While I think Wacha/Eo > Kluber/Pivetta was predictable, last year Kluber & Pivetta combined for 4.5 fWAR to Wacha/Eo's 2.5 fWAR.

I've had a version of this argument 100 times, & I always find it pretty hilarious to refer to understanding the financial realities of baseball as "dumb".

Even as awesome as Wacha/Eo have been this year (4.4 fWAR) & as awful as Kluber/Pivetta have been (-0.6 fWAR), with those 5 extra wins the Sox are basically where the Yankees are, 9 games behind the Rays & fighting for a wild card.

& as fans we may not care about FSG's bottom line, but basically all teams take the opportunity to reset the tax, & this is the year the Sox are doing it. Which means they are not all in this year.

What year is the best year on free agent contracts usually? Especially for older pitchers? The 1st year. By a lot. They are much better off making that larger investment next year when they aren't trying to stay under the tax on a guy who should be at his best while they are all in.

& as others have mentioned, they did offer on Eo - apparently more than he ended up signing for. But he thought he could do better & they moved on to plan B. They offered the same amount on Eflin as the Rays ended up matching (if they had an opportunity to up it, would have liked them to, but that's another story).

 

[Amos Otis regrets]

Schilling's absence hurt in the 2008 post season. So did Beckett's untimely lat injury (he got shelled in Game 2), an 0-14 slump by Ellsbury, poor hitting by Papi and Wake, and an unexpectedly ineffective Jon Lester in Game 3. And the Rays had a real solid team with the luxury of using David Price as a bullpen ace.

The loss of Mike Lowell for the ALCS was also a big blow. Watching that series, it felt like Mark Kotsay was always making outs in big situations.

 

[Seels]

That ALCS had some absolute dumpster umping as well. Remember Price getting a foot off either side of the plate despite having like 50 major league innings -- shades of Livan Hernandez.

 

[chrisfont9]

Wacha is signed for like 16 mil and Eovaldi is somewhere in that ballpark. These are not albatross contracts in 2023 and will not be in 2026.

The small market mindset folks have boxed themselves into over the last decade is really dumb. We're all having a ton of fun cheering for the last place Red Sox though I guess. Can't wait for 2026 when someone is justifying why we can't sign or extend someone because what about 2029 and 2030?!

Not as dumb as looking at contracts in a vacuum and pretending that taking $34m off the table for two starters whose production can be replicated by any number of options has no impact on the team's ability to sign the other 24 guys they need.

 

[Harry Hooper]

The loss of Mike Lowell for the ALCS was also a big blow. Watching that series, it felt like Mark Kotsay was always making outs in big situations.

IIRC, he had a whole bunch of deep drives that were all caught just in front of the warning track.

 

[Bernie Carbohydrate]

Manny? Schilling? Beckett? Ellsbury? Papi?Lester?

Look at all that high-priced talent, and all you got for it was a ring and some playoff appearances.

If I know SoSH, they’d rather see a well-run .500 team that stays below the cap than a bunch of ruffians wasting John Henry’s money on a pennant.

 

[scottyno]

Manny? Schilling? Beckett? Ellsbury? Papi?Lester?

Look at all that high-priced talent, and all you got for it was a ring and some playoff appearances.

If I know SoSH, they’d rather see a well-run .500 team that stays below the cap than a bunch of ruffians wasting John Henry’s money on a pennant.

Almost like the luxury tax rules have changed since they had any of those guys. Also several of those guys were not at all high priced talents while they were on the Sox.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Manny? Schilling? Beckett? Ellsbury? Papi?Lester?

Look at all that high-priced talent, and all you got for it was a ring and some playoff appearances.

If I know SoSH, they’d rather see a well-run .500 team that stays below the cap than a bunch of ruffians wasting John Henry’s money on a pennant.

Completely 100% not true.
If SOSH could convince Henry to spend whatever they collectively wanted the budget would be greater than the Mets. I don’t think we have his ear

 

[lexrageorge]

Completely 100% not true.
If SOSH could convince Henry to spend whatever they collectively wanted the budget would be greater than the Mets. I don’t think we have his ear

And the draft pick and bonus pool penalties would ensure that they would not have a Lester or Ellsbury coming up from AAA.

 

[GB5]

I seem to recall Colon throwing about 88-89 here and showing up for the Mets a few years later clocking at 93-94

 

[Quatchie]

The loss of Mike Lowell for the ALCS was also a big blow. Watching that series, it felt like Mark Kotsay was always making outs in big situations.

Go look at the amount of men Kotsay left on base in the 2008 ALCS. He in many ways cost the Red Sox the series.

 

[trekfan55]

Go look at the amount of men Kotsay left on base in the 2008 ALCS. He in many ways cost the Red Sox the series.

And yet it went to 7 games and the Sox had the lead early in Game 7.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Go look at the amount of men Kotsay left on base in the 2008 ALCS. He in many ways cost the Red Sox the series.

I looked at Kotsay in the four games the Sox lost (because how does him leaving runners on base in a win cost them the series?):

Game 2 (Rays win 9-8 in 11 innings) - One PA with runners on. He flew out to right field with runners on first and second and one out. The runner on second tagged and went to third. Technically not an LOB because he didn't make the third out.

Game 3 (Rays win 9-1) - Two PA with runners on. In the second inning, he doubled with a runner on first. Result was second and third and one out. In the sixth, he flew out with two outs and a runner on first. 1 LOB.

Game 4 (Rays win 13-4) - Two PA with runners on. In the second inning, he singled with a runner on second. Result was first and third and one out. In the seventh, he flew out to center with a runner on first. Technically not an LOB because he didn't make the third out.

Game 7 (Rays win 3-1) - Two PA with runners on. In the seventh, he flew out to right field with a runner on second and one out. Runner tagged and advanced to third. In the ninth, he struck out with a runner on first and no outs. Technically not LOB because he didn't make the third out.


In those four games, he was 2 for 7 with runners on. He advanced runners to third base in four of the seven instances. Officially, he stranded only one runner and that was in a game the team lost by EIGHT. How again did Mark Kotsay cost the Red Sox the series?

 

[Humphrey]

Jed Lowrie 2-18; Ellsbury 0-14; Varitek 1-20 (his "1" was a homer); Papi 4-26 (also a homer).

Think you're barking up the wrong tree w/Kotsay in terms of why that series was lost; Game 7 specifically.

 

[Ale Xander]

Manny would have hit HR’s in Game 7 that year
(Would have been after a suspension)

 

[jezza1918]

Feels like Adrian Beltre, who finished top 15 in mvp voting 6 straight years after Boston, had his cord cut a bit early here...Although his year here was his 2nd best in the majors in his age 31 season, so I kind of get it.

 

[Mueller's Twin Grannies]

They didn't want to pay Beltré to stay, in either money or years. Having Middlebrooks and X on the way helped justify that decision, even if Middlebrooks blew up in their face a couple years after being made the starter

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

They didn't want to pay Beltré to stay, in either money or years. Having Middlebrooks and X on the way helped justify that decision, even if Middlebrooks blew up in their face a couple years after being made the starter

They didn't want to pay Beltre what it would take and preferred Adrian Gonzalez. Not sure Middlebrooks or Bogaerts factored into the decision at all though. Middlebrooks was a 5th round pick who hadn't been above A-ball (he broke out in a huge way in 2011). Bogaerts was an 18 year old who had just finished his first professional season in the Dominican Summer League (not even A-ball). I think it was more that Theo honestly felt Youkilis could handle the transition back to 3B.

 

[jezza1918]

They didn't want to pay Beltré to stay, in either money or years. Having Middlebrooks and X on the way helped justify that decision, even if Middlebrooks blew up in their face a couple years after being made the starter

I mean dont get me wrong, as my post alluded to there were valid reasons for cutting the cord, but this entire thread is kind of hindsight based right? And hindsight would say we cut the cord too early on him.