I didn't see any threads about Dave Cameron or a miscellaneous thread. Please move the post if needed.
Dave Cameron wrote an interesting post on fangraphs yesterday, asking why he was wrong about the Royals. He answers himself that he was right about the royals but wrong about good-mediocre teams in general:
Dave Cameron wrote an interesting post on fangraphs yesterday, asking why he was wrong about the Royals. He answers himself that he was right about the royals but wrong about good-mediocre teams in general:
At the very least, its one of the few times I can remember a journalist covering the MLB admit he/she made a mistake that changes his/her future outlook on the MLB.
But while I think I can defend my analysis of the Royals talent level, that doesn’t make the overall argument correct. Over the last couple of years, we’ve seen essentially unparalleled parity in MLB, and this year, we have a World Series match-up between two teams who made the playoffs via the Wild Card. In 2012, the Tigers got to the World Series with 88 regular season wins; in 2011, the Cardinals won it all after winning just 90 games. While better teams are still more likely to win out in the postseason, the structure of the playoffs gives a real chance to every team who simply qualifies, even if they sneak in via the Wild Card. So maybe I underestimated the potentially positive returns from being on the good side of mediocre.
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But I think there’s a pretty good chance that I’ve underestimated the positive returns on mediocrity in Major League Baseball. That isn’t a goal to be derided anymore. The sport rewards it, especially if a few things break your way. The Royals put themselves in a position to take advantage of a few lucky breaks. Their decision isn’t any smarter because it paid off, but perhaps the size of the payoff should cause us to reconsider the relative costs and benefits of a decent-but-not-great team going for it. While I think we’ve done a pretty decent job on the cost of side of things, perhaps we’ve underestimated the upside.