Decision Time?

[JM3]

What would Jansen and $20 million be worth in prospects? We aren't trading him at full value, especially when we're already below the salary cap.

Eating the rest of this year makes sense... wouldn't be thrilled about the idea of eating next season because it would reduce your flexibility to do stuff & you're already paying a closer to not play for you, plus paying tax on that since they should be well over next year.

If you want to up your prospect haul, pay his salary this year & kick in something else the acquiring team may need that doesn't involve limiting yourself next season (prospects you're down on and need to be protected, expiring deals like Hernandez/Duvall which you could also pay for, whatever).

 

[nvalvo]

Eating the rest of this year makes sense... wouldn't be thrilled about the idea of eating next season because it would reduce your flexibility to do stuff & you're already paying a closer to not play for you, plus paying tax on that since they should be well over next year.

If you want to up your prospect haul, pay his salary this year & kick in something else the acquiring team may need that doesn't involve limiting yourself next season (prospects you're down on and need to be protected, expiring deals like Hernandez/Duvall which you could also pay for, whatever).

Why does it matter if we’re going over the first threshold anyway? By my read of the rules, it is optimal to GO OVER when you go over.

 

[chawson]

The Sox have kind of a soft-ish schedule between now and the trade deadline. If we're gonna go on a run, that nine-game stretch against OAK/CHC/OAK could be a pretty light lift.

We've got 20 games against what I'd call bad teams: CLE (2), COL (3), CWS (3) MIA (3), OAK (6), CHC (3). Let's say they go 14-6 in those, like this.

@ CLE 1-1
v. COL 2-1
@ CWS 2-1
v. MIA 2-1 (I know Miami's pretty good this year but I don't buy it)
v OAK 2-1
@ OAK 3-0
@ CHC 2-1

Winning 14 of 20 is tough against anyone, but none of the above series outcomes would shock me.

They also have 25 games against good teams: NYY (6), MIN (4), TOR (3), TEX (3), NYM (3), ATL (2), SFG (3), SEA (1). Let's say they go 13-12 in those, like so:

@ NYY 1-2
v. NYY 2-1
@ MIN 2-2
@ TOR 1-2
v. TEX 2-1
v. NYM 2-1 (Story could be activated around here)
v. ATL 1-1
@ SFG 1-2
July 31 @ SEA W

Anyway, that seems doable. That team is 57-49 heading into August, and I'd think not sellers.

 

[JM3]

Why does it matter if we’re going over the first threshold anyway? By my read of the rules, it is optimal to GO OVER when you go over.

I mean, yes, it's not my money so wtf do I care, but FSG probably doesn't want to pay ~$20m (salary + tax) to have Jansen not pitch for them next year & I would expect that to impact the budget.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Can anyone explain to me how this rotation looks anything like a team that could make a run in the playoffs?

Isn't this the exact same analysis that will determine if they're within striking distance of the post-season in the first place?

Sale - if his shoulder responds to rest (as it has in the past), and if he's pitches like he has in his past 5 starts, he's a legit post season starter.​

​

Paxton - currently healthy, but the same.​

​

Bello - currently healthy, the same - his May and June have been really good. Maybe he takes another step forward.​

​

Whitlock - inconsistent. When he's on, he's also a legit starter.​

​

Houck - lights out till the 4th/5th inning. Maybe he solves it. Maybe he does not. But you don't need a 5 man in the post-season.​

***
Yes, they could all crater.

Yes, Sale/Paxton/Bello and one of Whitlock/Houck/Crawford might get them there.

We're just going to have to wait and see.

As frustrating as that might be for some.

 

[YTF]

What would Jansen and $20 million be worth in prospects? We aren't trading him at full value, especially when we're already below the salary cap.

I've no clue. So much depends on what he does over the next 5-7 weeks, what teams have a need, what they are willing to give in return, how much money the Sox are willing to eat and whether or not the Sox even have any interest at all in moving him. If the team looks to be more competitive next season, they're going to need a closer.

 

[Niastri]

I've no clue. So much depends on what he does over the next 5-7 weeks, what teams have a need, what they are willing to give in return, how much money the Sox are willing to eat and whether or not the Sox even have any interest at all in moving him. If the team looks to be more competitive next season, they're going to need a closer.

I'm sorry, I should have been more obvious the question was rhetorical... Obviously there is a sliding scale in Jansen's value (or any players) depending on how much money is safety pinned to their uniform when they arrive at their new home.

Because the Sox have so little money committed next year, paying his whole salary this year and next for the right prospect would be worth it if they think he's fading and won't be valuable to us next year.

 

[TheYellowDart5]

The Red Sox trail the Yankees, Orioles, Blue Jays and Astros in the wild card race. Does anyone here think that Boston is better or will be better than two of those four? I have a really hard time seeing it given how bad this team is at run prevention. The playoffs aren't quite a pipe dream, but it's close: FanGraphs puts their odds at 17%, or fifth-lowest in the AL (and for what it's worth, they haven't broken 40% all season).

 

[Sin Duda]

Well, Heathcliff Slocumb, on July 31, 1997, had just blown a save and sported an 0-5 record, 5.79 ERA, and gravity-defying 1.97 WHIP, got us Derek Lowe (2-4, 6.96 ERA, 1.491 WHIP in SEA) and Jason Varitek (.254/.329/.443/.772 at AAA Tacoma).

 

[streeter88]

I think a realistic goal for this easy stretch would be 12-8. Then the hard stretch try not to go backward. Reinforcements are coming in Story and Duvall. Let’s see where we are at end of June.

 

[Archer1979]

To me, the question is when this team is fully loaded, what is their ceiling? Right now, with the injuries taking their toll, they're a last place team battling to stay a little over .500. When Sale, Story, and Duvall all return, hopefuly they'll get better... but we'll need to see how effective each are and whether they don't experience complications once they're back in the line-up.

I still don't see this team getting better than anything other than the second or third wild-card spot (of which they are currently five games out). And, any acquisitions that the Sox may potentially make would probably help them keep up with the rest of Joneses in contention as they are also probably making deadline deals. So the next next question is there a deal out there that makes them competive with the Rays (1 - 6 record head to head). If not, why not get something for players not in the team's immediate future?

 

[Max Power]

The Red Sox are playing the role of the Blue Jays this year. They're the team you don't want to play if they make the playoffs, because it means their hitting and pitching came together in a best case scenario. But it's also very likely they miss entirely.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

To me, the question is when this team is fully loaded, what is their ceiling? Right now, with the injuries taking their toll, they're a last place team battling to stay a little over .500. When Sale, Story, and Duvall all return, hopefuly they'll get better... but we'll need to see how effective each are and whether they don't experience complications once they're back in the line-up.

I still don't see this team getting better than anything other than the second or third wild-card spot (of which they are currently five games out). And, any acquisitions that the Sox may potentially make would probably help them keep up with the rest of Joneses in contention as they are also probably making deadline deals. So the next next question is there a deal out there that makes them competive with the Rays (1 - 6 record head to head). If not, why not get something for players not in the team's immediate future?

I don't think that the Red Sox will ever be back to full health, because most baseball teams are never truly at full health for an extended amount of time. It's why roster depth and not taking too many chances on the Wheel of Health is so important. I agree with your overall point that any acquisitions that they make between now and the trade deadline is not going to vault them over the number of teams that they need to.

This is a very good hitting team and it's tough to count them out of any game, but their pitching and defense. Woof. That's what needs to be addressed.

 

[Archer1979]

I don't think that the Red Sox will ever be back to full health, because most baseball teams are never truly at full health for an extended amount of time. It's why roster depth and not taking too many chances on the Wheel of Health is so important. I agree with your overall point that any acquisitions that they make between now and the trade deadline is not going to vault them over the number of teams that they need to.

This is a very good hitting team and it's tough to count them out of any game, but their pitching and defense. Woof. That's what needs to be addressed.

Agreed. The 162 game grind can make the smartest predictions in April seem like the dumbest things in October.

The pitching is what it is. Sale and Paxton had been pleasant surprises until Sale went down again. Hopefully, Sale's issues are just fatigue-based as it's been a while since he's pitched this regularly deep into games.

The biggest problem with the defense is that you have players playing out of position at shortstop.

At this point, Kike is really a center-fielder playing shortstop. When Story gets back, he's really a second baseman playing shortstop. With X gone and Mayer in AA, they're not going to invest too much in a SS, so they're somewhat hog-tied. I think the best assessment that I read on Casas is that he might not seem at bad at first if he could count on the throws not being in the dirt as much as they are.

I'm still trying to figure out if Yoshida is really that bad in left or is it something at which he can get better. If not, there's really nowhere else to put him.

In other words, the defense isn't going to get much better unless you want to sacrifice offense.

But with all that said, they are a better team than last year. They're winning games that they probably wouldn't have won last year. They're more competitive and it's not a surprise when they win even the most winnable games. I just think the cost of making them full-fledge contenders is too high just to buy a lottery ticket to the playoffs.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Why can’t we go with a defense like this?

LF- Duvall
CF- Kike
RF- Verdugo
3B- Devers
SS- Reyes
2B- Arroyo
1B- Turner / Casas
DH- Yoshida
C- Wong / McGuire

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Why can’t we go with a defense like this?

LF- Duvall
CF- Kike
RF- Verdugo
3B- Devers
SS- Reyes
2B- Arroyo
1B- Turner / Casas
DH- Yoshida
C- Wong / McGuire

I think that’s ideal with Duran in the CF mix and Yoshida getting LF at home

 

[grimshaw]

I took a healthy look at Steamer and Zips projections.

Based on them, overall it seems as though the playoffs will hinge on Casas and Devers being major contributors, Whitlock taking a huge step forward ,the remaining rotation remaining stitched together (most importantly Paxton) and Cora managing the shit out of the outfield. I'm bullish on Devers and Whitlock, but very dubious about the rotation. I still see them as 82 to 84 wins unless they buy.

The two pitchers the projections were most down on was Crawford and by far Winckowski. The highest was Whitlock. With the offense, it was definitely a net positive with only some mild regressions, but good bounce backs from Hernandez (particularly on D), and Raffy, with Casas taking a big step forward.

 

[jteders1]

Why can’t we go with a defense like this?

LF- Duvall
CF- Kike
RF- Verdugo
3B- Devers
SS- Reyes
2B- Arroyo
1B- Turner / Casas
DH- Yoshida
C- Wong / McGuire

Love this lineup both offensively and defensively. When Story returns, you also have a nice bench there with Duran, Ryfsnyder, and Valdez. That being said, the Casas thing really needs to be addressed. His underlying stats aren't terrible but aren't great either. He's been pretty average and unlucky which leads to your first baseman with a .682 OPS. The question is what do you do with him? If this team is really trying to make the playoffs, they should probably send him down, and go with what you suggest. We're 200 PA's into the season, how much longer can you ride with a black hole offensively at first base? If this is about next year, and the year after, you let him take his lumps. It's a fascinating situation.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I think the best assessment that I read on Casas is that he might not seem at bad at first if he could count on the throws not being in the dirt as much as they are.

I've seen a lot of this recently, even from second base, and I can't understand why the infielders are doing this. Are they being instructed by the club to it this way (maybe to stave off injuries? IDK)? Is this something that has sprouted up organically? Is this just a team coincidence or collective subconscious thing? Maybe it's a hazing ritual for Casas or maybe his infielders don't like him walking around the outfield without any shoes.

I'm not an old guy who's always yelling at clouds, but this seems very strange to me and it must be driving Casas and Turner nuts.

 

[AB in DC]

Love this lineup both offensively and defensively. When Story returns, you also have a nice bench there with Duran, Ryfsnyder, and Valdez. That being said, the Casas thing really needs to be addressed. His underlying stats aren't terrible but aren't great either. He's been pretty average and unlucky which leads to your first baseman with a .682 OPS. The question is what do you do with him? If this team is really trying to make the playoffs, they should probably send him down, and go with what you suggest. We're 200 PA's into the season, how much longer can you ride with a black hole offensively at first base? If this is about next year, and the year after, you let him take his lumps. It's a fascinating situation.

Arroyo-Reyes-Kike up the middle is solid on defense, but those are three bats I don't want to see in the lineup once Story/Duvall are back.

 

[Sin Duda]

Agreed. The 162 game grind can make the smartest predictions in April seem like the dumbest things in October.

The pitching is what it is. Sale and Paxton had been pleasant surprises until Sale went down again. Hopefully, Sale's issues are just fatigue-based as it's been a while since he's pitched this regularly deep into games.

The biggest problem with the defense is that you have players playing out of position at shortstop.

At this point, Kike is really a center-fielder playing shortstop. When Story gets back, he's really a second baseman playing shortstop. With X gone and Mayer in AA, they're not going to invest too much in a SS, so they're somewhat hog-tied. I think the best assessment that I read on Casas is that he might not seem at bad at first if he could count on the throws not being in the dirt as much as they are.

I'm still trying to figure out if Yoshida is really that bad in left or is it something at which he can get better. If not, there's really nowhere else to put him.

In other words, the defense isn't going to get much better unless you want to sacrifice offense.

But with all that said, they are a better team than last year. They're winning games that they probably wouldn't have won last year. They're more competitive and it's not a surprise when they win even the most winnable games. I just think the cost of making them full-fledge contenders is too high just to buy a lottery ticket to the playoffs.

One quibble; Story was a really good shortstop playing second base until he had arm trouble. If the surgery fixed the arm trouble (and it does for pitchers, so why not a SS?), then Story is your shortstop. And the leftfielder at Fenway will never be a defensive metrics darling until the metrics figure out how to account for the wall. Yoshida, to my eye, is competent but below average in LF.

 

[soxhop411]

The problem here is this team will sink or swim on how Devers preforms the rest of the season... He has hit 2 Home runs in the past 28 days. Hopefully he is not battling another injury and trying to play thru it

 

[E5 Yaz]

The problem here is this team will sink or swim on how Devers preforms the rest of the season

Unless Devers suddenly became a pitcher, this isn't true.

 

[soxhop411]

Unless Devers suddenly became a pitcher, this isn't true.

while true, Since 5/1 the sox have averaged 4 runs a game. that 4 runs per game includes a 12 run game and an 11 run game.. We have also allowed an average of 4 runs a game over that same time

View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tHle3ZZAJzwx5wYh2JFoQeWrDifVONuLZLf6iMCJMOU/edit#gid=1787138092

 

[LogansDad]

I've seen a lot of this recently, even from second base, and I can't understand why the infielders are doing this. Are they being instructed by the club to it this way (maybe to stave off injuries? IDK)? Is this something that has sprouted up organically? Is this just a team coincidence or collective subconscious thing? Maybe it's a hazing ritual for Casas or maybe his infielders don't like him walking around the outfield without any shoes.

I'm not an old guy who's always yelling at clouds, but this seems very strange to me and it must be driving Casas and Turner nuts.

I think maybe they just stink defensively, to be honest. Kiké has bad footwork and bad decision making on throws at SS, and Valdez is a known negative defender at this point. Devers has shown a lot of improvement and seems mostly fine, but I think his footwork on throws sometimes seems really rushed as well, though it's 3B so sometimes you have to be.

Overall, I think it's guys playing in positions they shouldn't be in, though.

But man, watch a team like Arizona or Seattle that has really good defense up the middle, and it is like night and day. I know the Braves got cited here or in another thread as having made more errors than the Sox, but it isn't even really just about errors, and if you watch a lot of them you see a team that gets to balls and makes plays happen. They turned a 1-6-3 double play in the 9th inning the other night that I don't think the Sox would even be in the realm of making happen.

The Red Sox are a really bad defensive team. I don't think it is "encouraged" by the coaching, it just is what it is at this point.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The problem here is this team will sink or swim on how Devers preforms the rest of the season... He has hit 2 Home runs in the past 28 days. Hopefully he is not battling another injury and trying to play thru it

Even more interesting to see Casas in a tight cluster with Turner and Verdugo. If you had asked me how Casas was doing, my subjective impression would have been much worse than Turner or Verdugo.

 

[Coachster]

The problem here is this team will sink or swim on how Devers preforms the rest of the season... He has hit 2 Home runs in the past 28 days. Hopefully he is not battling another injury and trying to play thru it

It passes the eye test that Duran has been awful and the guy they DFA'd was the 3rd best hitter the past month.

 

[RS2004foreever]

So the question to begin with is what is realistic from this team?
Assume the offense is at least as good as last year - a top-10 offense that has struggled recently but will likely get better.
Assume the bullpen is good enough (maybe it is though Jensen looks a bit shaky).
The starting pitching is the real question mark. So what is the rotation?
Paxton
Bello
Whitlock
Houck
?
It is hard to be optimistic about that rotation, and even if you assume the offense returns to something close to what it was in April it becomes really difficult to see them going 10 games over .500 over the next 56 games. It could happen. It if doesn't you have some really interesting pieces to sell. Paxton for starters. Jansen and Martin. You might deal Duvall and hand center to Duran.

The good news is that there are a couple of young pitchers with good stuff, and some younger players to develop (Wong/Duran/Casas/Valdez). But the state of the starting rotation is inexcusable at this point as is the number of games where Kike started at short.

 

[soxhop411]

Even more interesting to see Casas in a tight cluster with Turner and Verdugo. If you had asked me how Casas was doing, my subjective impression would have been much worse than Turner or Verdugo.

Adding on to the above post over the last month or so the Red Sox offense has completely collapsed.. According to MLB.com over the last 30 days the Red Sox offense ranks (in all of MLB)
17th in BA
15th in OBP
21st in SLG
18th in OPS

In the counting stats department

17th in Hits
5th in 2B's
13th in 3B's
28th(!!!) in HR's (only better then DET & COL)
22nd in RBI
24th in GDIP
20th in total bases
29th in AB/HR
and as I mentioned upthread adding up our runs scored cover the past month or so we have scored around 4 runs a game. that 4 runs per game includes a 12 run game and an 11 run game.. We have also allowed an average of 4 runs a game over that same time...


View: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1jPwwnN4I8YqJ0Vi8hG9m9fOCy0xYRdLvJRi_hqS4q1Q/edit?usp=sharing


Did anyone here going into the season expect our offense (or Devers) to be this putrid Offensively?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Sure, that’s bad….but for the entire season, the Sox are giving up over 5 runs a game. Only KC, Oakland, Cincy, and Colorado are giving up more runs a game. The Sox are a top five team in runs scored season to date.

The offense has not been great lately, but they can’t compete with a pitching staff / defense this bad.

 

[mauf]

In one sense, it's far too soon. The trade deadline is August 1, 56 calendar days from now.

The Sox have played 60 games and will play their 106th the day before the deadline. So that's 46 games, 9 turns through a 5 man rotation.

If they acquire around the deadline, they'll have 55-57 games or so to actually use those players before the season closes. (10 or 11 starts for a starter.)

It's worth remembering there are 3 wild card teams this year. Those 3 will play the worst (by record) division leader in two 3-game wild card series. The winner of WC1 and WC2 will play the best Division winner (D1). The winner of WC3 and D3 will play D2.

Right now the WC3 team (NYY) has a .590 WP. To get in couple-games-out striking range of that at the trade deadline, the Sox would have to go 30-15 or so.

But is .590 reasonable for the #6 team in the AL by the end of the season?
In 2022, the Rays held that spot at .531.
In 2021, the Jays held that spot at .562.

So the Sox going 26-19 or 28-17 seems far more doable. Not guaranteed, but doable.

The Yankees are on pace for 95-96 wins. I’m confident that the cutoff for the playoffs won’t be that high. But with 9-10 of the 15 AL teams outscoring their opponents (it has been 10 most of the season, but Seattle just dropped to -1), I think the cut will be closer to 91 wins (the 2021 cut) than to last year’s 86-win cut. The Sox need to go 59-40 the rest of the way — a 95-win pace — to finish with 90 wins.

As @chawson outlined upthread, there’s a path for the Sox to hit that pace from here to the deadline. To state the obvious, however, that would require them to play a lot better, starting right now. I’m in accord with the mildly pessimistic consensus in this thread — it’s not time to hang a “for sale” sign (and it’s not clear what we’d sell anyway), but it sure feels like it’s getting late early.

 

[j44thor]

When your season hinges on two oft injured 34 year old pitchers, neither of whom have thrown more than 60IP since 2019, you were never a serious contender.
I'd be looking to move Paxton asap before he inevitably breaks down again. Now I wouldn't move him for pennies on the dollar but as soon as I get a serious offer say B+ prospect I'd send him out. He has way more value to a contender who can manage his innings and keep him healthy for the post-season than he does BOS who needs him to throw 100 pitches because they have a bullpen that is completely fried.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

When your season hinges on two oft injured 34 year old pitchers, neither of whom have thrown more than 60IP since 2019, you were never a serious contender.
I'd be looking to move Paxton asap before he inevitably breaks down again. Now I wouldn't move him for pennies on the dollar but as soon as I get a serious offer say B+ prospect I'd send him out. He has way more value to a contender who can manage his innings and keep him healthy for the post-season than he does BOS who needs him to throw 100 pitches because they have a bullpen that is completely fried.

Agree that Paxton is a trade asset... .Turner also....possibly along with Kiké. I'd be looking to package Yorke up in a deal too if it could bring back a good pitcher ready for '24. But... it still hinges to me on the health of Sale. The Sox can make the playoffs with a healthy Sale and do some damage there... but if it's a serious injury I think it'd be time to start making some deals.
That said... I don't really pay much attention to any other teams (especially other teams mL players) that could be a trading partner. FWIW, I think the middle infield is good (after Mayer moves up) for the foreseeable future, along with the OF and I think Wong may end up being the biggest net in the Mookie trade. There's depth in the mL's at middle infield and it's where Bloom should dip into to address the pitching weakness.

 

[Ghost of Todd Benzinger]

Chang had a 78 wRC+ last year. Iglesias had an 85. Chang is 6 years younger & a better & more versatile defender.

Chang has 0.2 fWAR this season. Iglesias has 0.0...because he hasn't made a major league roster. Chang makes $850k & is under team control for 2 more years.

Why would giving Iglesias or someone similar $2m be better? Because Chang had a fluke broken bone?

Hernandez had actually been a decent SS in the past. Now... not so much.

Like there are so many things one can actually criticize at least somewhat fairly... but not signing a 33 y/o minor league SS is not one of them. Batting .250 is not a meaningful thing because BA is not a meaningful stat.

Our 3B isn't hitting .250.

Of course, if you want a mediocre SS who is hitting .279, may I introduce you to Pablo Reyes?

Batting average is not a meaningful stat? Interesting. And 0.2 fWAR is. lol Yet another bad take from The Land of Bad Takes.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Cross-posting: McAdam with the salient point

But even before the deadline arrives, there are bigger issues at play here. Namely, how much leeway will Chaim Bloom have from ownership?
It’s believed that Bloom’s contract runs through the 2024 season, but if the Sox are barely in the playoff race after the All-Star break, will John Henry, Tom Werner and Mike Gordon feel good about allowing him to make moves that could impact the team well past his own deal?

https://www.masslive.com/redsox/2023/06/mlb-notebook-trade-deadline-may-put-red-sox-in-uncomfortable-place-mcadam.html

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Batting average is not a meaningful stat? Interesting. And 0.2 fWAR is. lol Yet another bad take from The Land of Bad Takes.

So you decided that it would be a good idea to reply to a post that had substance in it with a drive-by troll job? Not a good move on your part.

 

[grepal]

That's called playing 6-D chess while the other GMs are playing checkers.

Too bad we let Dermody go for nothing. He could have put us over the top in that deal.

 

[E5 Yaz]

So you decided that it would be a good idea to reply to a post that had substance in it with a drive-by troll job? Not a good move on your part.

I know a gamethread cross-posting possibility when I see it

 

[absintheofmalaise]

I would have, but no one had started one. Too late now.

 

[JM3]

Batting average is not a meaningful stat? Interesting. And 0.2 fWAR is. lol Yet another bad take from The Land of Bad Takes.

If you were going to use 1 # to describe how good a hitter is, with all the stats available right now, I couldn't imagine batting average being in the top 10. It's a relevant portion of several of the far more telling statistics, but in isolation it's not particularly germane. If you want to show your work to prove otherwise you're welcome to.

Who said 0.2 fWAR is a relevant stat? I mean it's nice that it's not negative like Hernandez, & fWAR in general is a relevant stat. Much more useful than, for example, batting average.

But go off.

 

[chawson]

The two extra-inning losses to Colorado really felt like the low point of the season.
Still, we are only one game off this sunny pace.

The Sox have kind of a soft-ish schedule between now and the trade deadline. If we're gonna go on a run, that nine-game stretch against OAK/CHC/OAK could be a pretty light lift.

We've got 20 games against what I'd call bad teams: CLE (2), COL (3), CWS (3) MIA (3), OAK (6), CHC (3). Let's say they go 14-6 in those, like this.

@ CLE 1-1 | Actual 0-2
v. COL 2-1 | Actual 1-2
@ CWS 2-1
v. MIA 2-1 (I know Miami's pretty good this year but I don't buy it)
v OAK 2-1
@ OAK 3-0
@ CHC 2-1

Winning 14 of 20 is tough against anyone, but none of the above series outcomes would shock me.

They also have 25 games against good teams: NYY (6), MIN (4), TOR (3), TEX (3), NYM (3), ATL (2), SFG (3), SEA (1). Let's say they go 13-12 in those, like so:

@ NYY 1-2 | Actual 2-1
v. NYY 2-1
@ MIN 2-2
@ TOR 1-2
v. TEX 2-1
v. NYM 2-1 (Story could be activated around here)
v. ATL 1-1
@ SFG 1-2
July 31 @ SEA W

Anyway, that seems doable. That team is 57-49 heading into August, and I'd think not sellers.

The Yankees' starters this series are Germán, Schmidt, and a not-quite-the-same Severino (7.12 FIP), and they've got an outfield of Billy McKinney, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jake Bauers. Time to beat the Yankees.

 

[jon abbey]

The Yankees' starters this series are Germán, Schmidt, and a not-quite-the-same Severino (7.12 FIP), and they've got an outfield of Billy McKinney, Isiah Kiner-Falefa and Jake Bauers. Time to beat the Yankees.

They should have Bader back for this series, but they do still stink, your point is valid.

 

[chawson]

They should have Bader back for this series, but they do still stink, your point is valid.

Missed that, thanks.

The injuries have been bad over there but at least you're not the New York team paying $129 million for five starters to put up a total of 200 innings at a 4.66 FIP.

 

[chrisfont9]

Seems to me the biggest decision is Paxton, for whom they could probably get a meaningful return. He's pitching like a guy who might be a rotation mainstay for a little while, fingers crossed, albeit with a track record that says he misses time every year for small stuff. If we just keep him all year, he almost certainly walks for nothing (QO seems a bit much). I'd love one more season on a reasonable contract, but that won't be on the table.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

The Syndergaard deal last year seems like a pretty good comp; Angels got Moniak and a lottery ticket. Meh.

 

[chrisfont9]

The Syndergaard deal last year seems like a pretty good comp; Angels got Moniak and a lottery ticket. Meh.

Hm, yeah I'd just keep him if the return didn't have much potential.

 

[JM3]

Seems to me the biggest decision is Paxton, for whom they could probably get a meaningful return. He's pitching like a guy who might be a rotation mainstay for a little while, fingers crossed, albeit with a track record that says he misses time every year for small stuff. If we just keep him all year, he almost certainly walks for nothing (QO seems a bit much). I'd love one more season on a reasonable contract, but that won't be on the table.

Offer him an extension you're comfortable with. If he doesn't take it, trade him & reconvene in off season.

 

[chrisfont9]

Offer him an extension you're comfortable with. If he doesn't take it, trade him & reconvene in off season.

Makes sense.

 

[grimshaw]

The Syndergaard deal last year seems like a pretty good comp; Angels got Moniak and a lottery ticket. Meh.

I think he'd fetch a whole lot more. Syndergaard was a completely different pitcher last season who had the worst looking stuff he'd ever had. Paxton has turned the clock back.

Here are the top names potentially available aside from Paxton. These are teams that are 5 or more out of the WC.
Marcus Stroman
Jordan Montgomery
Shane Bieber (not FA until 2025 though)
Lucas Giolito
Jack Flaherty
Nola could also potentially be available if the Phillies drop out.

There are 15 teams either in playoff spots or within 4 games. This is a seller's market for sure. Teams like the Reds or Pirates could be really aggressive given the low salary.

 

[walt in maryland]

Agreed. The 162 game grind can make the smartest predictions in April seem like the dumbest things in October.

The pitching is what it is. Sale and Paxton had been pleasant surprises until Sale went down again. Hopefully, Sale's issues are just fatigue-based as it's been a while since he's pitched this regularly deep into games.

The biggest problem with the defense is that you have players playing out of position at shortstop.

At this point, Kike is really a center-fielder playing shortstop. When Story gets back, he's really a second baseman playing shortstop. With X gone and Mayer in AA, they're not going to invest too much in a SS, so they're somewhat hog-tied. I think the best assessment that I read on Casas is that he might not seem at bad at first if he could count on the throws not being in the dirt as much as they are.

I'm still trying to figure out if Yoshida is really that bad in left or is it something at which he can get better. If not, there's really nowhere else to put him.

In other words, the defense isn't going to get much better unless you want to sacrifice offense.

But with all that said, they are a better team than last year. They're winning games that they probably wouldn't have won last year. They're more competitive and it's not a surprise when they win even the most winnable games. I just think the cost of making them full-fledge contenders is too high just to buy a lottery ticket to the playoffs.

Disagree. Story is a shortstop