Defensive Indifference: the Sox's current and future(?) struggles in the field

[nighthob]

I'm hopeful the defensive issues will be resolved over the next couple years as prospects graduate to Boston.
As you say, keeping Verdugo as a plus defender in Fenway's RF seems imperative. I can see keeping him on a 3-4 year deal (through his age 30 season).

Honestly I think that Verdugo is going to end up traded this winter and replaced in the lineup by Little Raffi. Verdugo as an above average player might have some real value for a small market team, while in the other direction Little Raffi might be a defensive upgrade with more offensive upside.

I would love Duran to be good enough to hold down CF and Rafaela to hit enough to play RF. In Fenway you really need a right fielder with the ability of a center fielder.

Rafaela can hit, he’s pillaging AAA pitching. Still swings too freely, but it’s probably time to let him develop at the MLB level because minor league pitching hasn’t challenged him enough.

Maybe you consider trading Casas while his value is high for starting pitching and move Devers to 1B and DH?

That’s a real possibility, he has years of control that makes him insanely valuable. You could certainly make him part of a package for a real ace (not that I’m advocating the path)
.

I love what he's added this year, but I'm not sure Duran is here in 2026. Do you have great confidence he will be?

Yeah, Duran’s the kind of guy that you trade if/when you have a replacement. If Anthony or Bleis can really play CF long term you don’t hesitate to move Duran for upgrades elsewhere.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Honestly I think that Verdugo is going to end up traded this winter and replaced in the lineup by Little Raffi. Verdugo as an above average player might have some real value for a small market team, while in the other direction Little Raffi might be a defensive upgrade with more offensive upside.

Rafaela can hit, he’s pillaging AAA pitching. Still swings too freely, but it’s probably time to let him develop at the MLB level because minor league pitching hasn’t challenged him enough.

I have no doubt C Note (Little Raffi) will be a defensive upgrade wherever he plays. But I can't see the Sox completely turning right field over to him before he shows something offensively at the major league level. Yes, he's pillaging AAA. So is Bobby D. Don't get me wrong, I have huge hopes for Rafaela. Wish they'd traded Duvall at the deadline to bring him up. Two years ago, when he started breaking out, I was comparing him to Mookie. But the difference between him and Mookie is the plate discipline. And that can be the difference between being a AAAA guy like Bobby D and a solid MLB regular.

If and when Rafaela shows he can put up a .750 OPS in The Show, then the Sox can make Duran or Verdugo available. Or keep them both until Anthony or Bleis or another outfield prospect is ready.

'24
LF Yoshida / Duran / Refsnyder
CF Rafaela / Duran / Refsnyder
RF Verdugo / Rafaela / Refsnyder (only on the road)
* If all goes well, Anthony starts the season in AA and finishes strong in AAA.

Yeah, Duran’s the kind of guy that you trade if/when you have a replacement. If Anthony or Bleis can really play CF long term you don’t hesitate to move Duran for upgrades elsewhere.

Agree

 

[nighthob]

Anthony is destroying A+ pitching so badly that I expect him to be in Boston's OF by 2025.

 

[beautokyo]

Raffy doesn't look it, but he's pretty quick at third and has good range. His problem is missing balls or bad throws. I feel like there's more hope for improvement when it comes to things you can practice, like catching and throwing, rather than hoping someone can improve on their reaction time.

If my memory serves me well, Wade Boggs was a so so defender but worked hard and got a GG if I'm not mistaken.

 

[zenax]

Yeah, Duran’s the kind of guy that you trade if/when you have a replacement. If Anthony or Bleis can really play CF long term you don’t hesitate to move Duran for upgrades elsewhere.

Why not trade Yoshida?

 

[Sin Duda]

Did Duvall give an explanation for why he nonchalanted the throw on the double? NESN guys hypothesized he thought it was foul because it kicked off the tarp.

 

[simplicio]

Did Duvall give an explanation for why he nonchalanted the throw on the double? NESN guys hypothesized he thought it was foul because it kicked off the tarp.

Watching the replay it's pretty clear he thought it was foul.

 

[Sin Duda]

Watching the replay it's pretty clear he thought it was foul.

Unerstand the mistake, but he can't assume like that in a close game. I wish he had played it as though it was fair, then eased up if the MI told him so. That's on Bloom for signing a guy who had no defensive reputation (kidding, he won a GG in 2021).

 

[Benj4ever]

I wish people would stop with this. Yorke is not a bad defensive 2B. The problem with him, defensively, is that he can only play 2B, 1B, or DH (i.e. no flexibility). He's looked entirely average at 2B every time I've watched him.

EDIT: Also, when Yorke and Mayer are ready, you can move Story to 3B and Devers to DH. There's also the reality of Rafaela arriving in Boston next year that opens up the opportunity to turn Verdugo into a defensive upgrade elsewhere. But, medium term, they'll need an OF spot for Roman Anthony. But that's a question for 2025.

Small sample size, but he looked like he knew what he was doing at Bowie on Saturday.

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

Is it really a problem if a guy can only play 2b? Dustin Pedroia only played 2b.

 

[jwbasham84]

I know the current front office likes positional flexibility, but I agree with Petagine in a Bottle. Why does every player have to have two or three other positions that they can play. Sure it's nice to have, but certainly hasn't been a necessity for past teams. I feel it is more important to have a utility player or two that cover several positions rather than worry our starters with maintaining skills of various positions versus focusing on a single one. Now I know Yorke may never be a starter, but he has been touted highly and I would certainly hope he can focus on being the best 2B he can be.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

want

I know the current front office likes positional flexibility, but I agree with Petagine in a Bottle. Why does every player have to have two or three other positions that they can play. Sure it's nice to have, but certainly hasn't been a necessity for past teams. I feel it is more important to have a utility player or two that cover several positions rather than worry our starters with maintaining skills of various positions versus focusing on a single one. Now I know Yorke may never be a starter, but he has been touted highly and I would certainly hope he can focus on being the best 2B he can be.

Pedroia could in emergency play SS though. I think it’s Bloom’s MO more to have players that CAN play multiple positions if they have to due to injuries or rest for regulars

 

[jwbasham84]

Pedey played exactly 6 games at shortstop all in 2006... I am sure most 2B can play short in an emergency... but let's focus on whether they should be coached at multiple positions or if they should focus on one exact position to hone their talents... I can see the wisdom in both strategies, but I prefer being the best at your one position.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pedrodu01.shtml#appearances

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Pedey played exactly 6 games at shortstop all in 2006... I am sure most 2B can play short in an emergency... but let's focus on whether they should be coached at multiple positions or if they should focus on one exact position to hone their talents... I can see the wisdom in both strategies, but I prefer being the best at your one position.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/pedrodu01.shtml#appearances

Sure... but honestly, if you have a regular starter that can play a good variety of positions, doesn't it make sense in case of injury to not have to trade? And for resting regulars to be able to shift guys around so you're covering for weaknesses. In theory it's a great idea... I just don't know if the personnel currently on the roster are good enough there. A lot of the future hopeful players all fit that mold a little better where athletic MI types seem like they could be assets at any of the up-the-middle spots while the corner guys with more focus on power are being tried at 1B, 3B and corner OF spots

 

[nighthob]

Is it really a problem if a guy can only play 2b? Dustin Pedroia only played 2b.

In this day and age teams have begun to value defensive flexibility. Chase Meidroth might very well beat out Yorke as the 2B of the near future (it's likely that Boston views Cespedes as the long term answer at 2B), but he doesn't need to be a 2B, Boston has used him all over the place in the minors. Due to a shoulder injury Yorke's available positions are limited to the right side of the IF and he's not suited to 1B. So it makes him limited defensively. But not a butcher with the glove.

 

[derekson]

Sure... but honestly, if you have a regular starter that can play a good variety of positions, doesn't it make sense in case of injury to not have to trade? And for resting regulars to be able to shift guys around so you're covering for weaknesses. In theory it's a great idea... I just don't know if the personnel currently on the roster are good enough there. A lot of the future hopeful players all fit that mold a little better where athletic MI types seem like they could be assets at any of the up-the-middle spots while the corner guys with more focus on power are being tried at 1B, 3B and corner OF spots

Rafaela seems like a perfect guy to play this role for the next few seasons. If he can play good defense all around the IF and OF 4-5 games per week while other guys DH or get a day off that's a massive roster upgrade.

 

[nighthob]

Why not trade Yoshida?

A variety of reasons, starting with the fact that he's a better hitter and Duran has a lot more trade value due to cost control. My guess would be that Roman Anthony is the starting LF in 2025 with Yoshi sliding into the DH role.

 

[Salem's Lot]

A variety of reasons, starting with the fact that he's a better hitter and Duran has a lot more trade value due to cost control. My guess would be that Roman Anthony is the starting LF in 2025 with Yoshi sliding into the DH role.

The front office should probably wait to see if Roman Anthony can even hit AA pitching before they start worrying about making moves to free up a spot for him on the MLB roster.

 

[nighthob]

The front office should probably wait to see if Roman Anthony can even hit AA pitching before they start worrying about making moves to free up a spot for him on the MLB roster.

Could you point me to the place where I said that they should make moves today based on theoretical future rosters? Because I’m pretty sure that I’m not the one advocating dealing A ball players or MLB players to alleviate possible future logjams. I’ve pretty much always said that you wait until the players below force the issue before making any moves. Bleis could well be the CF of the future, but until he’s the CF of the present you don’t trade guys ahead of him.

 

[kazuneko]

If my memory serves me well, Wade Boggs was a so so defender but worked hard and got a GG if I'm not mistaken.

This is the type of narrative we're all attracted to - especially when it's a home grown player that we've all been rooting for his whole career. But it's also allows for a level of subjectivity that few of us would ever have with an opposing player. While it's true that Raffy has had stretches where he has seemed better and others when he's been worse, his body of work is approaching 7 seasons and nearly 7000 innings and the numbers suggest he should not be playing the field. Since entering the league in 2017 he is second worst in the league (among all positions to Nick Castellanos) in DRS (-51) and far and away the worst in the league (among all positions) with 124 errors. His Fangraphs Def WAR during that time is dead last for 3rd basemen. Where is he in 23' with that stat? Dead last again. For errors, he's second worst in the league - among all fielders. Gotta wonder if the Sox should have shifted him to DH a while ago - and how if they had if that might have saved them a ton of money when they decided to sign him long-term. Instead he was signed, presumably, to be their long-term 3rd baseman and ended up paid accordingly, with a contract that was 2 years longer and $55 million more valuable than perennial gold glover Nolan Arenado's deal.
I worry about this same type of cognitive bias with the analysis of Duran's fielding. Sure, he's an exciting player and it's great to see him turn it around this season, but CF is a crucial position, and it shouldn't be filled by a guy who is prone to huge mistakes in the field. I can appreciate that some of his numbers look better than his near bottom of the league (for CF) DRS numbers, but he has never looked strong out there and I'd much rather see Rafaela's glove replacing him in the field than Verdugo, who remarkably has put up some of the best defensive numbers in all of baseball. By DHing Yoshida you could potentially upgrade two positions (CF and LF), though that still leaves the team's worst fielder butchering balls at the hot corner.

 

[bosockboy]

A variety of reasons, starting with the fact that he's a better hitter and Duran has a lot more trade value due to cost control. My guess would be that Roman Anthony is the starting LF in 2025 with Yoshi sliding into the DH role.

Plausible, but yesterday you had Devers sliding to DH to open up 3B for Story. We can’t have everybody.

 

[strek1]

If my memory serves me well, Wade Boggs was a so so defender but worked hard and got a GG if I'm not mistaken.

I f Raffy were capable of Boggs type improvement we would have started seeing some of it by now.

 

[nighthob]

Plausible, but yesterday you had Devers sliding to DH to open up 3B for Story. We can’t have everybody.

There are going to be a lot of moves in the next few years. Boston has a lot of options. Devers is so bad defensively at third that they will need to make a decision on him.

 

[jbupstate]

Devers defense is much more acceptable if his bat is carrying the way.

Really looking forward to Bloom taking bullets for the Devers contract that was universally applauded and a still a good bet to be worth it.

 

[bosockboy]

There are going to be a lot of moves in the next few years. Boston has a lot of options. Devers is so bad defensively at third that they will need to make a decision on him.

One of Yorke or Anthony isn’t long for the organization (or both).

 

[Rovin Romine]

There are going to be a lot of moves in the next few years. Boston has a lot of options. Devers is so bad defensively at third that they will need to make a decision on him.

He just signed a 10 year $300M+ contract. So they'll probably just decide what coach will work best with him on his fielding.

 

[plucy]

One of Yorke or Anthony isn’t long for the organization (or both).

Can you explain?

 

[bosockboy]

Can you explain?

One of Devers and Yoshida is a future DH.

If it’s Devers, Yorke is likely at 2B with Story at 3B. Meaning Yoshida stays in LF and there isn’t room for him, Duran, Rafaela and Anthony.

If Yoshida is DH, reverse that and there’s no room for Yorke.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Can you explain?

If one of them is being traded in the offseason, it really should be Yorke. The Sox mL system has a lot of good MI guys, not so much good defensive OF types. Either way, I do suspect Bloom is going to pull a big trade this offseason with a lot of mL depth going away.
I think they need to hold on to Winkelman as he's the closest of the good pitchers (Drohan's ceiling is lower) to being ML ready IMO

 

[JM3]

Neither Yorke or Anthony requires 40-man protection this off season, so not much point in moving either right now.

 

[nighthob]

Neither Yorke or Anthony requires 40-man protection this off season, so not much point in moving either right now.

Yeah, and neither has accumulated sufficient trade value yet to be worth moving.

One of Yorke or Anthony isn’t long for the organization (or both).

I mean it's almost certainly Yorke. Cespedes has looked like an elite RHH so far (DSL to be sure, but the underlying batted ball profile bodes well) and if Mayer is the SS of the immediate future then Cespedes will be moving to 2B or 3B. Yorke or Meidroth are just the potential 2B of the short future. Anthony's bat is too potentially valuable to give away now in trade. But, again, as I always say, these are problems for the '25 and '26 seasons as these guys force their way into the lineup.

He just signed a 10 year $300M+ contract. So they'll probably just decide what coach will work best with him on his fielding.

Almost certainly this. Unless they decide that moving him to 1B is the way to go. But this is going to be he approach for the next 2-3 years. You don't move players down the defensive spectrum until you have to.

 

[beautokyo]

I f Raffy were capable of Boggs type improvement we would have started seeing some of it by now.

So you're stating that RD has been putting in the extra work fielding on a daily basis? Mr Boggs didn't get his 1st GG until he became a MFY in 1994 which would have made him.....maybe 34-35.

 

[kazuneko]

So you're stating that RD has been putting in the extra work fielding on a daily basis? Mr Boggs didn't get his 1st GG until he became a MFY in 1994 which would have made him.....maybe 34-35.

I don’t think the Sox should have any interest in waiting. Since coming into the league Raffy’s been a strong candidate for the title of worst fielder in the Majors - pretty consistently year by year- and even more convincingly across his seven year tenure in the league.
Granted there are probably similarly bad fielders who have long since had their fielding gloves taken from them, but the Sox haven’t chosen to go that route, presumably because they have been chronically hopeful about his potential to improve, or perhaps overly deferential to his desire to stay on the field. That said, I don’t think the Sox should wait till he’s retired and in the bad fielder Hall of Fame before they encourage him be a full-time DH.

 

[dhappy42]

Most, but not all, of Devers’s poor fielding is throwing. He might be an average first baseman. But then where Casas play?

 

[nighthob]

Most, but not all, of Devers’s poor fielding is throwing. He might be an average first baseman. But then where Casas play?

If Boston chose to go that route (which they absolutely wouldn't until guys in the system forced their way onto the roster) then Casas would be insanely valuable as a cost controlled slugger.

 

[dhappy42]

If Boston chose to go that route (which they absolutely wouldn't until guys in the system forced their way onto the roster) then Casas would be insanely valuable as a cost controlled slugger.

Do you mean as a DH or a trade chip?

 

[jbupstate]

Doesn’t Duran have a decent amount of trade value this offseason? I would think he’s the Guy other teams might ask about. I think his defense is very shaky and his best spot on the Sox is LF. Trading Duran as part of a package for a RH outfielder would be a consideration.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Doesn’t Duran have a decent amount of trade value this offseason? I would think he’s the Guy other teams might ask about. I think his defense is very shaky and his best spot on the Sox is LF. Trading Duran as part of a package for a RH outfielder would be a consideration.

He does bring something to the table though that has been lacking over the past 10 years- and wasn’t valued prior.
The Sox retain him through his most productive seasons…. I’d rather plug him in LF/CF but Cedanne in CF mostly for the next two cost-controlled years to see what Roman, Bleis, etc have going.

 

[dhappy42]

Doesn’t Duran have a decent amount of trade value this offseason? I would think he’s the Guy other teams might ask about. I think his defense is very shaky and his best spot on the Sox is LF. Trading Duran as part of a package for a RH outfielder would be a consideration.

BTV rates Duran as almost as valuable as Casas and Bello.

 

[jbupstate]

BTV rates Duran as almost as valuable as Casas and Bello.

Not directed at you but… but how can Duran based on a half season be close in value to Casas (young with great hitting approach and power) and Bello (young with top end SP ability)?

To be clear, I really like Duran but I’m not sold that this is the real Duran. Seems like a great sell high candidate.

 

[dhappy42]

Not directed at you but… but how can Duran based on a half season be close in value to Casas (young with great hitting approach and power) and Bello (young with top end SP ability)?

To be clear, I really like Duran but I’m not sold that this is the real Duran. Seems like a great sell high candidate.

Dunno how BTV’s valuation algorithm works, so just sayin’.

 

[chrisfont9]

I know the current front office likes positional flexibility, but I agree with Petagine in a Bottle. Why does every player have to have two or three other positions that they can play. Sure it's nice to have, but certainly hasn't been a necessity for past teams. I feel it is more important to have a utility player or two that cover several positions rather than worry our starters with maintaining skills of various positions versus focusing on a single one. Now I know Yorke may never be a starter, but he has been touted highly and I would certainly hope he can focus on being the best 2B he can be.

Hoping that this is more a bridge-year strategy while they try to get true regulars in place across the lineup. This would all be so much easier in a market where you could just say "hey, we are rebuilding" and people would just respond "oh, OK" instead of calling for everyone to be put to death. [kidding! sort of]

Possibly questionable opinion: is it really that big a deal to be at -7 DRS? Or -6 for all of 2022? Statistically speaking, Devers' offense overwhelms his defensive issues. There can be a force multiplier for bad defense up the middle, but at the corners it kinda just is what it is. Maybe moving him opens up a spot for another great two-way player but I suspect you are getting downgraded offense somewhere if you stick Devers at DH.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Not directed at you but… but how can Duran based on a half season be close in value to Casas (young with great hitting approach and power) and Bello (young with top end SP ability)?

To be clear, I really like Duran but I’m not sold that this is the real Duran. Seems like a great sell high candidate.

I think BTV puts a lot of value on low dollar contracts and years of control. Duran is just as cheap as the other two and only has one less year of control. That they're all fairly close in productivity (by bWAR: Bello 3.2, Duran 2.0, Casas 0.9...by fWAR: Duran 2.7, Bello 1.3, Casas 0.9) makes the gap close.

 

[moondog80]

Doesn’t Duran have a decent amount of trade value this offseason? I would think he’s the Guy other teams might ask about. I think his defense is very shaky and his best spot on the Sox is LF. Trading Duran as part of a package for a RH outfielder would be a consideration.

I agree in theory but the problem is...who?

Duran is a 2.7 WAR player this year (per fangraphs). There are only 15 OF in MLB with a WAR of 3 or over:

Ron Acuna
Mookie Betts
Luis Robert
Juan Soto
Aroldis Garcia
Corbin Carroll
Christian Yelich
Cody Belinger (FA)
Kyle Tucker
Julio Rodrgiuez
Fernando Tatis
Aaron Judge
Mike Trout
Chas McCormick
James Outman

Who on that list are we trading for?

I should note that everyone's other favrorite candidate for an upgrade -- Verdugo -- is 29th in WAR among all OF.

My guess is that one of Druan/Verdugo get moved, but it will be for SP and not an OF. Next year's OF is Yoshida, Rafaella, and one of Doogie/Duran, with another Turner type (or perhaps Turner himself) as the full time DH.

 

[dhappy42]

I can’t see keeping Verdugo over Duran, unless some team wants to drastically overpay for Duran. So next year’s OF is almost certainly Yoshida, Duran and Rafaela, with Refsnyder as backup.

 

[moondog80]

I can’t see keeping Verdugo over Duran, unless some team wants to drastically overpay for Duran. So next year’s OF is almost certainly Yoshida, Duran and Rafaela, with Refsnyder as backup.

Devil is in the details. I'd pick Duran over Verdugo in a vacuum. But even with a non-overpay return, Duran brings back a much a better pitcher.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I can’t see keeping Verdugo over Duran, unless some team wants to drastically overpay for Duran. So next year’s OF is almost certainly Yoshida, Duran and Rafaela, with Refsnyder as backup.

“Almost certainly” is way overstating the odds. The only certainty in that group is Yoshida.

 

[nighthob]

Do you mean as a DH or a trade chip?

If Yorke or Meidroth forced the issue sufficiently by seizing the 2B spot, and Boston decided to move Devers to 1B, then Casas is an insanely valuable trade chip.

 

[bosockboy]

Verdugo probably gets moved in a Benintendi type deal, to a small market contender like Milwaukee for some pitching depth.

 

[Heating up in the bullpen]

Verdugo probably gets moved in a Benintendi type deal, to a small market contender like Milwaukee for some pitching depth.

I don't see it. Sox need two strong defensive outfielders to cover CF and RF in Fenway. Duran isn't one of those. Verdugo is. Rafaela is, if he can hit MLB pitching. My guess is they keep Dugie, start '24 with Rafaela and Duran splitting CF, and if Rafaela is hitting, they shop Duran at the '24 deadline. Maybe shop Duran this off-season if they're feeling super-confident about Rafaela, but I don't see that happening. Or even shop Yoshida at the '24 deadline if they think Duran will keep hitting. But I think they need to keep Dugie until Anthony or another good-fielding prospect is ready (or they trade for/sign another strong defensive OF).