Do the Yankees Moves Rekindle the Rivalry?

Rasputin

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The same used to be said of about Torre and a some sabermaticians supported the theory that Torre's overperformance was all Mo.

Plus the Sox terrible pen would explain why JF is under.
Pythag doesn't take into account how high or low leverage a situation might be so it will naturally discount runs scored in high leverage situations relative to those scored in low leverage situations.

If someone wanted to redo a pythag formula while accounting for the situational leverage when each run was scored, I suspect it would be much more accurate than what we use today.

Of course, using a leveraged pythag would mean categorizing each run every time you do it and that sounds tedious.
 

benhogan

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Pythag doesn't take into account how high or low leverage a situation might be so it will naturally discount runs scored in high leverage situations relative to those scored in low leverage situations.

If someone wanted to redo a pythag formula while accounting for the situational leverage when each run was scored, I suspect it would be much more accurate than what we use today.

Of course, using a leveraged pythag would mean categorizing each run every time you do it and that sounds tedious.
Yes tedious, but it may help in Farrell's defense.

You know what would also help? If John stopped using Taz and Barnes in high leverage situations.

It drives a few of you nuts with the mere mention of 'Buck Showalter or Joe Girardi being better in game mangers' then Farrell... BUT those guys put relief pitchers in defined roles, in situations where they can succeed (L/R), and Joe/Buck do develop decent bullpens.

Obviously the GMs cop some of the praise/blame here: signing Miller, trading for Chapman and Clippard were all shrewd moves by Cash that DD/Ben could have executed.

The rivalry is building up not only with the Yanks over the next few weeks, but the entire AL East.
 

Rasputin

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Yes tedious, but it may help in Farrell's defense.
I don't really give a shit about Farrell's defense.

It drives a few of you nuts with the mere mention of 'Buck Showalter or Joe Girardi being better in game mangers' then Farrell... BUT those guys put relief pitchers in defined roles, in situations where they can succeed (L/R), and Joe/Buck do develop decent bullpens.
There hasn't been a single member of this bullpen that hasn't imploded in his assigned role. Do you really want or expect a manager to continue to keep a guy in his assigned role after implosions?

Obviously the GMs cop some of the praise/blame here: signing Miller, trading for Chapman and Clippard were all shrewd moves by Cash that DD/Ben could have executed.
Signing Miller wasn't particularly shrewd. A lot of GMs wanted to sign Miller, the Yankees just don't care about money as much as other teams so they could offer more. The Chapman move was I guess a little bit shrewd in the sense that Cashman knew he'd likely be selling at the deadline and could get him for less than they could sell him for months later and yet the reason they could get him cheap is the reason the Sox didn't want him at all.
 

TheoShmeo

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Signing Miller wasn't particularly shrewd. A lot of GMs wanted to sign Miller, the Yankees just don't care about money as much as other teams so they could offer more. The Chapman move was I guess a little bit shrewd in the sense that Cashman knew he'd likely be selling at the deadline and could get him for less than they could sell him for months later and yet the reason they could get him cheap is the reason the Sox didn't want him at all.
I think you're selling Cashman quite short on the Chapman move. This wasn't just buying the player because you have more rubles than everyone else. I'll give you that with Miller. It was acquiring him in the face of a possible PR hit and suspension for domestic violence. It was realizing that the trade, if successful, could result in the Yankees having unprecedented closer experience and the chance for an impossibly strong back end of the pen. With a better team earlier in the year, the Yankees would have been in a position to win a lot of games when they were ahead going into the last three innings.

So it was not just that Cashman knew he was acquiring an asset that he could move at the trade deadline. That itself was shrewd but just getting someone of Chapman's caliber for the 2016 season and the chance that the Yankees would be in it was smart. Hell, I wish that DD had done that. Chapman, Koji and Kimbrell would have been nasty around now.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Care to clarify or disown this comment after this weekend?
Hanley being on an insane hot streak in an otherwise fairly close series has nothing to do with the opposing managers on the bench?

I know, "cite my source" about Hanley being hot...
 

Adrian's Dome

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I think you're selling Cashman quite short on the Chapman move. This wasn't just buying the player because you have more rubles than everyone else. I'll give you that with Miller. It was acquiring him in the face of a possible PR hit and suspension for domestic violence. It was realizing that the trade, if successful, could result in the Yankees having unprecedented closer experience and the chance for an impossibly strong back end of the pen. With a better team earlier in the year, the Yankees would have been in a position to win a lot of games when they were ahead going into the last three innings.

So it was not just that Cashman knew he was acquiring an asset that he could move at the trade deadline. That itself was shrewd but just getting someone of Chapman's caliber for the 2016 season and the chance that the Yankees would be in it was smart. Hell, I wish that DD had done that. Chapman, Koji and Kimbrell would have been nasty around now.
DD did do that. He got Kimbrel and Smith to pair with Koji/Taz. One got hurt right away, the others wore down. Only now with relative health and depth is the unit looking better as a whole.

Imagine the Yankee pen if Miller had gone down in ST and Betances had a down year. That's a lot more pressure on Chapman, less defined roles for everyone, and a lot more innings in higher leverage spots for lesser pitchers. That's essentially what happened to the Sox, and it was out of everyone's control.
 

soxfan121

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Hanley being on an insane hot streak in an otherwise fairly close series has nothing to do with the opposing managers on the bench?

I know, "cite my source" about Hanley being hot...
What are you talking about?

Do you think "Joe Girardi is 3-4 wins better than John Farrell"? I would love to hear a case, any case. The floor is yours.
 

rembrat

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Girardi had a terrible weekend and I'm still waiting on Plympy to back up his boy.

- Left Betances in to die on Thursday even though he didn't want to use him because Betances had gone back to back days already.
- Slow with the hook with Mitchell on Saturday, pulling him AFTER the homerun.
- Letting CC start the 6th last night that created the situation where Ortiz PH with men on 1B & 2B & 0 outs that could have been disastrous.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm not claiming here to be speaking for Plypton ( not ever!) but I have said that I felt Girardi was a superior manager to Farrell (although I don't think he's far superior) and would be able to get 2-3 extra wins out of a season based on Pythag than Farrell and I still believe that.
But.... wow. There was some clear bad managing there that possibly cost the Yankees- on Thursday an opportunity to be part of the fight for the AL East championship..... and on other nights he helped manage them out of a shot at a WC slot even.
So there's the rub (or is it actually a rub... I dunno).... that we can't watch every game managed throughout a season to get specific but we can still reference Pythag formula for expected W/L record over a season or even over several and in this regard, Girardi still has Farrell beat and there's nothing really else to argue pro or con against.
 

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Hanley being on an insane hot streak in an otherwise fairly close series has nothing to do with the opposing managers on the bench?

I know, "cite my source" about Hanley being hot...
After what you said about Chris Young earlier in the year, you have zero credibility on this board. Funny you show up now. Anyways we are now seeing playoff John. He is much quicker with the hook than he was earlier in the year. Of course it helps that he has the expanded rosters and a bullpen that he can trust. As we can see, everyone including Taz seems to br clicking on all cylinders . In all honesty the manager is never as bad the team looks during a losing streak and not as great as he looks during a winning streak.
 

uk_sox_fan

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And yet with either Miller or Chapman (let alone both) still on the roster the whole complexion of the series could have easily been very different. Give the man a semblance of his pre-August bullpen and I don't think the miracle of Thursday night happens. Beyond that who knows but they'd have been in better shape on Sat and Sunday as well.

Don't get me wrong, I actually like Farrell and think he gets waaay to much BS from the 2nd guessers here. The man is made out to be a Grady Little equivalent or (shudder) in John McNamara's league. I just don't see it. But Girardi had a bad weekend to be sure but he did have the deck stacked against him.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm not claiming here to be speaking for Plypton ( not ever!) but I have said that I felt Girardi was a superior manager to Farrell (although I don't think he's far superior) and would be able to get 2-3 extra wins out of a season based on Pythag than Farrell and I still believe that.
But.... wow. There was some clear bad managing there that possibly cost the Yankees- on Thursday an opportunity to be part of the fight for the AL East championship..... and on other nights he helped manage them out of a shot at a WC slot even.
So there's the rub (or is it actually a rub... I dunno).... that we can't watch every game managed throughout a season to get specific but we can still reference Pythag formula for expected W/L record over a season or even over several and in this regard, Girardi still has Farrell beat and there's nothing really else to argue pro or con against.
And replying to my own post.... and if those 2-3 wins don't matter over the course of a season then I'm not sure about "playoff management". Girardi has a WS ring and Farrell has one. Farrell outmanaged Girardi this last series but I'm not even slightly clued in to how to compare "playoff management" of managers. Seems pythag method there wouldn't apply
 

TheoShmeo

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DD did do that. He got Kimbrel and Smith to pair with Koji/Taz. One got hurt right away, the others wore down. Only now with relative health and depth is the unit looking better as a whole.

Imagine the Yankee pen if Miller had gone down in ST and Betances had a down year. That's a lot more pressure on Chapman, less defined roles for everyone, and a lot more innings in higher leverage spots for lesser pitchers. That's essentially what happened to the Sox, and it was out of everyone's control.
I thought that Chapman was different in kind -- both with respect to his potential dominance and the risks surrounding him -- than Smith (and Koji/ Taz) before the season and I think that now.

To me, the beauty of Cashman's Champman move was that after he made it, every other executive was probably kicking himself for not having the guts to do it, too. To be fair, the word "every" there is undoubtedly an overstatement in that some would never have traded for Champman given the allegations against him. But for those whose principles would not preclude acquiring Chapman in the face of those allegations, I bet the overwhelming majority was saying "damn, I should have done that." Sure, some may have wished they had traded for Carson Smith. But not as many.
 

Adrian's Dome

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After what you said about Chris Young earlier in the year, you have zero credibility on this board. Funny you show up now. Anyways we are now seeing playoff John. He is much quicker with the hook than he was earlier in the year. Of course it helps that he has the expanded rosters and a bullpen that he can trust. As we can see, everyone including Taz seems to br clicking on all cylinders . In all honesty the manager is never as bad the team looks during a losing streak and not as great as he looks during a winning streak.
If being wrong once (in a manner that was completely unpredictable from any logical standpoint, since I still wasn't incorrect about his platoon splits and he did cost us several games early on,) puts someone in "zero credibility" status, this entire board (and every baseball writer/fan/enthusiast ever) deserves a cold glass of shut the fuck up. Nobody, not even his biggest supporters and/or mother, expected this kind of performance out of Young.

Lastly, "playoff Farrell" might not've had to show up at this point if he'd managed a bit differently earlier in the season and the race wasn't so tight.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Girardi had a terrible weekend and I'm still waiting on Plympy to back up his boy.

- Left Betances in to die on Thursday even though he didn't want to use him because Betances had gone back to back days already.
- Slow with the hook with Mitchell on Saturday, pulling him AFTER the homerun.
- Letting CC start the 6th last night that created the situation where Ortiz PH with men on 1B & 2B & 0 outs that could have been disastrous.
I think his most egregious mistake over the weekend was pitching to Hanley last night with first base open and two outs, with Chris Young on deck.
 

Adrian's Dome

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What are you talking about?

Do you think "Joe Girardi is 3-4 wins better than John Farrell"? I would love to hear a case, any case. The floor is yours.
I didn't say that. You're the one that's bringing up managerial differences in a series that was decided over a single player's hot streak. Nothing Farrell or Girardi did over the course of the last four games should influence the greater samples we've been working with over the past few seasons.
 

joe dokes

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I didn't say that. You're the one that's bringing up managerial differences in a series that was decided over a single player's hot streak. Nothing Farrell or Girardi did over the course of the last four games should influence the greater samples we've been working with over the past few seasons.
If you believe that Hanley's hot streak was the only decider this weekend -- and not Girardi's decision, for example, to use a cooked Betances on Thursday, and thereby absent Betances from the rest of the Series, or to twice pull Butler for a defensive replacement in the 5th inning for a sub-200 hitter when Butler was one of the few guys actually hitting (just to cite two obvious examples of shittyness) -- then most any comparison that you make of Farrell to anyone else is suspect.
 

Cesar Crespo

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What are you talking about?

Do you think "Joe Girardi is 3-4 wins better than John Farrell"? I would love to hear a case, any case. The floor is yours.
Pretty much of all the difference can be attributed to the bullpen the Yankees have had and the sox have had. Baltimore, NYY, Texas, KC are all overperforming. Modern bullpens are screwing with expected W/L records.
 

Adrian's Dome

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If you believe that Hanley's hot streak was the only decider this weekend -- and not Girardi's decision, for example, to use a cooked Betances on Thursday, and thereby absent Betances from the rest of the Series, or to twice pull Butler for a defensive replacement in the 5th inning for a sub-200 hitter when Butler was one of the few guys actually hitting (just to cite two obvious examples of shittyness) -- then most any comparison that you make of Farrell to anyone else is suspect.
Because outlier decisions with the benefit of retrospect (calling Betances "cooked") matter more than big sample sizes? Butler is a historically bad defender and the Yankees played majority of those games with a lead.

If you think Hanley didn't win those games, we didn't watch the same series.
 

SpaceMan37

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Pretty much of all the difference can be attributed to the bullpen the Yankees have had and the sox have had. Baltimore, NYY, Texas, KC are all overperforming. Modern bullpens are screwing with expected W/L records.
So does using your best bullpen arms in the highest leverage situations and worst bullpen arms in the lowest leverage situations. Those games where Tazawa was clearly not himself but was still getting the 8th inning hurts a lot more than moving him to lower leverage would. Also, the 3 high leverage appearances that Abad got when we first got him and he blew every one of them. And things like using Hembree vs. LHB and going weeks between seeing Robbie Ross pitch, etc.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So does using your best bullpen arms in the highest leverage situations and worst bullpen arms in the lowest leverage situations. Those games where Tazawa was clearly not himself but was still getting the 8th inning hurts a lot more than moving him to lower leverage would. Also, the 3 high leverage appearances that Abad got when we first got him and he blew every one of them. And things like using Hembree vs. LHB and going weeks between seeing Robbie Ross pitch, etc.
When your bullpen options are death by bleach or death by grease fire it doesn't really matter what you are throwing out there. Not a fan of Farrell, but this team's bullpen was a mess.
 

SpaceMan37

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When your bullpen options are death by bleach or death by grease fire it doesn't really matter what you are throwing out there. Not a fan of Farrell, but this team's bullpen was a mess.
Well yes, except there is pretty much always a quality difference between your worst and best options no matter how bad they are so you still want to match up your best arms for highest leverage and worst ones for lowest leverage. That will still help the team be better than they would have been doing it the opposite way. The only time the manager doesn't mater in bullpen usage is when every relief pitcher is identical. Then I would agree that there is nothing the manager can do. Sometimes that is the case but not often.
 

joe dokes

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Because outlier decisions with the benefit of retrospect (calling Betances "cooked") matter more than big sample sizes? Butler is a historically bad defender and the Yankees played majority of those games with a lead.

If you think Hanley didn't win those games, we didn't watch the same series.

Ahhhh, so suddenly the players do matter. It was Hanley who did that stuff, not that fact that dumb as a box of rocks Farrell Girardi let him hit against Betances and Sabathia. Girardi acknowledged Betances was cooked *before* the game when he said he didn't want to use him a third day in a row (the second of which was not terribly effective and the first of which was for 4 outs). And by doing so, made him unavailable for the next 3 games.

We've both watched baseball a long time. How many times have you seen a guy pulled after 4 innings for defense? People treat Farrell like a pedophile if he pinch-runs for Ortiz in the 7th inning.

You've actually paid close enough attention to Girardi's *every* move and can make the statement about "big sample sizes." Its possible, but I doubt it.

SpaceMan37 said:
Also, the 3 high leverage appearances that Abad got when we first got him and he blew every one of them.
This is the stupidest thing ever said in the history of the intertubes. They got Abad to be a situational lefty. He got three tries. And then none. You -- or the perfect manager of your dreams -- would have given him how many chances? 1? 2? 1.43671? Zero?
 

Adrian's Dome

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Ahhhh, so suddenly the players do matter. It was Hanley who did that stuff, not that fact that dumb as a box of rocks Farrell Girardi let him hit against Betances and Sabathia. Girardi acknowledged Betances was cooked *before* the game when he said he didn't want to use him a third day in a row (the second of which was not terribly effective and the first of which was for 4 outs). And by doing so, made him unavailable for the next 3 games.

We've both watched baseball a long time. How many times have you seen a guy pulled after 4 innings for defense? People treat Farrell like a pedophile if he pinch-runs for Ortiz in the 7th inning.

You've actually paid close enough attention to Girardi's *every* move and can make the statement about "big sample sizes." Its possible, but I doubt it.



This is the stupidest thing ever said in the history of the intertubes. They got Abad to be a situational lefty. He got three tries. And then none. You -- or the perfect manager of your dreams -- would have given him how many chances? 1? 2? 1.43671? Zero?
Rhetoric is fun, isn't it?

When a player is unavailable, he's unavailable. There's a big difference between that and "I'd rather not use this guy today, but this is a big game and we're in a pennant race, so if I have to, I will." It's best to use your best pitchers in the highest leverage situations. Sometimes it doesn't work out, that doesn't make it a terrible decision. You don't evaluate every move on results alone (as I said earlier, with the benefit of retrospect,) but on the motivation behind them.

If we had any defensive players of Butler's "caliber", they'd get pulled in the middle innings. Often. Luckily, we don't.

And yes, if we're speaking subjectively here, I feel as if I've watched enough Yankee games over his tenure to have a decent grasp on Girardi as a whole, and I do believe, while not a great manager, he is more effective at in-game management than Farrell is. Radical stance, I know.
 

Bigpupp

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Because outlier decisions with the benefit of retrospect (calling Betances "cooked") matter more than big sample sizes? Butler is a historically bad defender and the Yankees played majority of those games with a lead.

If you think Hanley didn't win those games, we didn't watch the same series.
One week ago Betances pitched on his third consecutive day and couldn't get through the inning (against the Blue Jays). On Thursday, he was again pitching on the third consecutive day and it was very easy to see he had nothing. It's not retrospect to say Girardi should have know better than leave Betances out to dry that night.
 

Adrian's Dome

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One week ago Betances pitched on his third consecutive day and couldn't get through the inning (against the Blue Jays). On Thursday, he was again pitching on the third consecutive day and it was very easy to see he had nothing. It's not retrospect to say Girardi should have know better than leave Betances out to dry that night.
What were his other options? What would you have done alternatively in that situation?
 

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One week ago Betances pitched on his third consecutive day and couldn't get through the inning (against the Blue Jays). On Thursday, he was again pitching on the third consecutive day and it was very easy to see he had nothing. It's not retrospect to say Girardi should have know better than leave Betances out to dry that night.
He couldn't get through the inning against the Blue Jays but still threw 40 high stress pitches. On his third consecutive day of work. His use of Betances has been managerial malpractice.
 

SpaceMan37

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This is the stupidest thing ever said in the history of the intertubes. They got Abad to be a situational lefty. He got three tries. And then none. You -- or the perfect manager of your dreams -- would have given him how many chances? 1? 2? 1.43671? Zero?
I would use just about any pitcher like Abad in lower leverage first until he proved himself in Boston. Ross was always better but Abad just jumped him from day one. But I wouldn't give Farrell a LOOGY to use anyway because he can't resist trying to use them vs. RHB. Farrell even said when he first got here that Abad wasn't a LOOGY when it's clear he is.

Furthermore, Abad has never been good in high leverage situations in his career when you look at the numbers. I never liked the trade and always thought Layne was just as good. Now I think Robbie Scott is better. Thankfully, it seems that Farrell got the memo from the analytics department on that point and actually listened for a change.
 

joe dokes

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I would use just about any pitcher like Abad in lower leverage first until he proved himself in Boston.
And if Abad succeeded in low-leverage situations against the Ruppert Mundys while the Sox were up by 10, then it would be OK to give him a shot at the hi-lev they got him for? That makes no sense at all. Other than injury, what does success at lo-lev tell you when 2/3 of the season has already run?
 

Adrian's Dome

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And if Abad succeeded in low-leverage situations against the Ruppert Mundys while the Sox were up by 10, then it would be OK to give him a shot at the hi-lev they got him for? That makes no sense at all. Other than injury, what does success at lo-lev tell you when 2/3 of the season has already run?
Low-lev gives you an idea of what you have without risking winnable games in pressure situations. I mean, seriously? Of course you want to try to ease new players in if you can.
 

Bigpupp

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What were his other options? What would you have done alternatively in that situation?
Stop moving the goalposts. First you said it was retrospect that Betances was cooked. It wasn't.

But to answer your question....
Girardi took out Tanaka when he was cruising and had a low pitch count. Besides leaving him in for longer (which he should have done) the Yankees had 10 other relief pitchers not named Betances that he could have mixed and matched with to get the final 3 outs. If he can't find a way to get through the inning without just leaving his obviously cooked closer then he isn't the smart manager you think he is.
 

Byrdbrain

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Sorry the people saying Abad should have been eased in are simply engaging in the type of retroactive criticism that we have seen too much of around here. Saying it is the stupidest thing ever is a smidge over the top but it's not bright.

He was acquired has a high lev lefty and that is how he was used. He was awful and he was demoted, then he had a bunch of good games and then he was worse than ever the other day. I now expect we will only see him in the lowest of leverage situations.
 

uk_sox_fan

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So does using your best bullpen arms in the highest leverage situations and worst bullpen arms in the lowest leverage situations. Those games where Tazawa was clearly not himself but was still getting the 8th inning hurts a lot more than moving him to lower leverage would. Also, the 3 high leverage appearances that Abad got when we first got him and he blew every one of them. And things like using Hembree vs. LHB and going weeks between seeing Robbie Ross pitch, etc.
See, it's this kind of revisionist BS to blast a manager that I can't stand. Should we look at Abad's pitching log to see what really happened?

2 Aug @Sea: Price is dominating for once through 7 innings but in the 8th he falls apart. After a lead-off HR to Zunino he gets burned for a flare single to left and a seeing-eye ground ball between 1st and 2nd. JF gives him one more batter but it's clear he's gassed when Heredia hits a sharp liner to right to score the 2nd run and cut the Sox lead to 4-2. Barnes comes in to face Gutierrez but Servais counters by inserting the left-handed Seth Smith - Barnes strikes him out anyway for the 1st out of the inning. Now it's Robi Cano and so Farrell brings in his new toy, lefty specialist Fernando Abad who was acquired just for these situations. Abad gets ahead quickly 0-2 and throws a FB just outside but Cano lays off for a ball and then disaster: Abad leaves one down the middle and Cano crushes it out for a 3-run homer and a 5-4 lead. Abad recovers to get Nelson Cruz (on a worryingly deep fly) and Dae-Ho Lee but the damage has been done and the Sox lose 5-4.
Verdict: Abad failed in his 1st outing but Farrell used him as he was supposed to be used.

4 Aug @Sea: Pomeranz' 4th start for Boston still looking for his 1st win. The starter looks sharp through 4 but runs into trouble in the 5th and gives up 2, tying up the score 2-2. Ross and Tazawa are effective in the 7th and 8th and Abad is handed the ball to start the 9th with the game still tied. He starts off getting LH'er Leonys Martin on a weak nubber which Sandy scoops up to throw him out but then gives a single to switch-hitter Shawn O'Malley (his 3rd hit of the game). Abad rallies by bearing down on lead-off hitter Heredia to get the righty to pop out to Shaw at 1B but is too fine with Gutierrez and walks him. Farrell has seen enough as Cano is up and he doesn't want to be burned in the same way in 3 days. Kimberly comes in and gets Cano to ground out to end the threat and the Sox go on to win in 11.
Verdict: Abad was ok but gave up a hit and a walk in 2/3 of an inning and Farrell couldn't trust him to face Cano. Manager was cautious after the earlier disaster and made what was likely the right call. Sox win.

7 Aug @LAD: Price's last bad start for a long while, giving up 6 runs (3 earned) in 5IP. Abad comes in for the 6th to face Utley (L), Kendrick (R) and Seager (L) and retires them 1-2-3 (Utley by K) on 11 pitches. In the 7th Tazawa gives up back-to-back HRs and the Sox lose 8-5.
Verdict: Abad did his job. Our knuckleballer was lost for most of the rest of the year in a pinch running mishap but as far as Abad's usage goes JF was flawless.

10 Aug v NYY: Not a pretty 7th inning. Pomeranz started again and pitched well but got into trouble in the 6th. Clay came in to relieve him and got a DP with just 3 pitches. Posters were incensed later that JF didn't leave Clay in but the manager knew he'd be starting for Wright on the Saturday and so had to bring out Barnes for the 7th to protect the 4-1 lead. Barnes was, shall we say, ineffective. Single, single, single until Girardi let ARod pinch hit and Barnes retired him on a deep fly ball. With Gardner and Ellsbury due up he brings in Abad. The lefty dutifully gets Gardner swinging and gets ahead of Ellsbury but then surrenders an RBI single past a diving Hanley. Then the pitch that sticks in the craw. A change-up, almost eephus pitch to Hedley and it's another RBI single - this one past Hill at 3B - and the lead is gone 4-4. Farrell takes Abad out but replaces him with Tazawa and bad becomes worse and the Sox lose 9-4.
Verdict: The eephus was ugly - this is the game that convinced me that Abad wasn't to be trusted (and that Tazawa was gassed) but it also had a similar effect on JF.

12 Aug v Ari: Mop up duty in the 9th after Price left with a 9-3 lead. Got the 1st 2 outs quickly but then gave up a double, RBI single and a walk before closing out the win.
Verdict: Not clean but harmless.

15 Aug @Cle: After Pomeranz' best start to date for the Sox JF brought Abad in with 2 outs, a run in and the tying runner on 2nd in the 8th inning of a 3-2 game to face switch-hitting Jose Ramirez. I wouldn't have done that but it worked out as Abad got Ramirez to fly out harmlessly to short left-centre. Sox win 3-2.
Verdict: Ok, more trust than I would have shown but it worked.

The next 5 appearances were all low-leverage mop-up duty type outings. The point of all this is to show that as bad as the memory tells you Abad was when he joined, the managerial decisions to use him were rational. When he was first inserted to face Cano, that was exactly what he'd been acquired to do - face the opponents' top lefty threats. The 2nd outing he did ok but Farrell rightly had him on a short leash. Then he did well in his 3rd outing with a 1-2-3 inning (rather than "blowing every one" of his first 3 outings as SpaceMan asserts). The 4th outing was awful but it was 2 batters and he'd been pretty good his last time out so I find it hard to fault Farrell for using him there. I only found the 6th appearance questionable and it actually worked out so I think this altogether this shows pretty well how hindsight and mis-remembering makes people think much worse of the managers than is fair.

If you found the post long and tedious I apologise - it's just one of those things that is hard to prove unless you go into the detail and it's something I feel is important to do.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Sorry the people saying Abad should have been eased in are simply engaging in the type of retroactive criticism that we have seen too much of around here. Saying it is the stupidest thing ever is a smidge over the top but it's not bright.

He was acquired has a high lev lefty and that is how he was used. He was awful and he was demoted, then he had a bunch of good games and then he was worse than ever the other day. I now expect we will only see him in the lowest of leverage situations.
Or I could have summed it up succinctly like you did!
 

Rovin Romine

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Ahhhh, so suddenly the players do matter. It was Hanley who did that stuff, not that fact that dumb as a box of rocks Farrell Girardi let him hit against Betances and Sabathia. Girardi acknowledged Betances was cooked *before* the game when he said he didn't want to use him a third day in a row (the second of which was not terribly effective and the first of which was for 4 outs). And by doing so, made him unavailable for the next 3 games.

We've both watched baseball a long time. How many times have you seen a guy pulled after 4 innings for defense? People treat Farrell like a pedophile if he pinch-runs for Ortiz in the 7th inning.

You've actually paid close enough attention to Girardi's *every* move and can make the statement about "big sample sizes." Its possible, but I doubt it.



This is the stupidest thing ever said in the history of the intertubes. They got Abad to be a situational lefty. He got three tries. And then none. You -- or the perfect manager of your dreams -- would have given him how many chances? 1? 2? 1.43671? Zero?
Giardi made some bad choices. I don't think that takes away from the fact that Hanley is on fire or basically won 3 of the 4 games for us. Neither has anything to do with Farrell making boneheaded decisions.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Sorry the people saying Abad should have been eased in are simply engaging in the type of retroactive criticism that we have seen too much of around here. Saying it is the stupidest thing ever is a smidge over the top but it's not bright.

He was acquired has a high lev lefty and that is how he was used. He was awful and he was demoted, then he had a bunch of good games and then he was worse than ever the other day. I now expect we will only see him in the lowest of leverage situations.
And saying he should be tried or tested in low-leverage situations before being given a high-lev spot ignores the fact that he was already a high-lev guy based on his usage with his former team.

The average leverage index when Abad was brought into games by the Twins this year was 1.36 (1.00 being average pressure situation). To put it in perspective, this year Koji's appearances rate at 1.26, Matt Barnes is at 1.22, and Heath Hembree is at 0.98.

Basically, Abad had already proven himself in high leverage situations this season. That's why they threw him right into the fire as soon as he arrived...they acquired him to be that guy. Putting him at the back of the line and making him prove himself from scratch defeats the whole purpose of trading for him at the deadline.

That he failed his first few times out is unfortunate, but the cost of doing business.
 

SpaceMan37

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Dec 30, 2013
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Sorry the people saying Abad should have been eased in are simply engaging in the type of retroactive criticism that we have seen too much of around here. Saying it is the stupidest thing ever is a smidge over the top but it's not bright.

He was acquired has a high lev lefty and that is how he was used. He was awful and he was demoted, then he had a bunch of good games and then he was worse than ever the other day. I now expect we will only see him in the lowest of leverage situations.
Well that's wrong then because he has never been a good high leverage lefty in his career.

Have fun with the split tool at Fangraphs - http://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=4994&position=P&splitArr=72,6&strgroup=season&type=2&startDate=all&endDate=all
 

SpaceMan37

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Dec 30, 2013
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And saying he should be tried or tested in low-leverage situations before being given a high-lev spot ignores the fact that he was already a high-lev guy based on his usage with his former team.

The average leverage index when Abad was brought into games by the Twins this year was 1.36 (1.00 being average pressure situation). To put it in perspective, this year Koji's appearances rate at 1.26, Matt Barnes is at 1.22, and Heath Hembree is at 0.98.

Basically, Abad had already proven himself in high leverage situations this season. That's why they threw him right into the fire as soon as he arrived...they acquired him to be that guy. Putting him at the back of the line and making him prove himself from scratch defeats the whole purpose of trading for him at the deadline.

That he failed his first few times out is unfortunate, but the cost of doing business.
Abad has a 7.26 FIP in high leverage situations this year and a 6.63 last year.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Well that's wrong then because he has never been a good high leverage lefty in his career.

Have fun with the split tool at Fangraphs - http://www.fangraphs.com/splitstool.aspx?playerid=4994&position=P&splitArr=72,6&strgroup=season&type=2&startDate=all&endDate=all
So Cano had been 1 for 11 in his career against Abad before Farrell used him in his Sox debut but a "smart" manager would have known that it was going to end badly this time and refused to use his new lefty specialist?

Or maybe - just maybe - Cano is a really good hitter and sh@t happens?
 

SpaceMan37

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So Cano had been 1 for 11 in his career against Abad before Farrell used him in his Sox debut but a "smart" manager would have known that it was going to end badly this time and refused to use his new lefty specialist?

Or maybe - just maybe - Cano is a really good hitter and sh@t happens?
I won't blame that one on anyone. But still, Farrell left him in against RH batters Nelson Cruz and Dae-Ho Lee after that in a 1 run game. That worked out that time because they didn't blow the game worse than that, but that's not how to use a LOOGY.
 

Plympton91

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Oct 19, 2008
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Care to clarify or disown this comment after this weekend?
Not really. Though Girardi did not cover himself in glory. I can't believe he sent Sabathia out there for the 6th inning last night. And back to the 9th inning on Thursday, I was comparing it to the game where Kimbrell clearly had nothing and Farrell took him out instead of sticking with the closer.


Overall though that was a fantastic weekend of baseball. And I just kept think that it was 4 more games worth of the karma and luck evening out after the first 34 years of my life.

If the Yankees hadn't traded Miller, they might have been the ones who swept. But they did. They really did.
 

Adrian's Dome

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Stop moving the goalposts. First you said it was retrospect that Betances was cooked. It wasn't.

But to answer your question....
Girardi took out Tanaka when he was cruising and had a low pitch count. Besides leaving him in for longer (which he should have done) the Yankees had 10 other relief pitchers not named Betances that he could have mixed and matched with to get the final 3 outs. If he can't find a way to get through the inning without just leaving his obviously cooked closer then he isn't the smart manager you think he is.
So your answer is "literally any other pitcher".

Good to know.
 

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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What were his other options? What would you have done alternatively in that situation?
Girardi doesn't trust young relievers enough, the main example being when Betances first came up late in the season and couldn't get into a game, before making the All-Star team the next three seasons as a set up guy. This year's example is Heller and Holder, neither of whom he has given a great chance to, even though he wanted Holder up enough that Cashman burned a 40 man roster spot on him a year early.

So that was the main mistake Girardi made, ignoring these guys enough so that when he did finally call on them, they were out of rhythm and ineffective. That wasn't a mistake he necessarily made in this series (although if you pull Tanaka after 7 on Thursday, I think it has to be Holder and then Warren there with the 4 run lead), but it's an ongoing mistake that weakened the pen and led to at least some of the issues this weekend.
 

benhogan

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Nov 2, 2007
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Going back on topic: "do the Yankees moves rekindle the rivalry?"

Have we ever witnessed such a divergence in talent between the Red Sox and the Yankees?

Looking at the Yankee's line-up and position players, what an utter mess.

Lets compare talent:
1st Base: Ramirez vs Texeira..... Ramirez in a landslide
2nd Base: Pedroia vs Castro..... Pedroia in a landslide
Shortstop: Xander vs Didi... Xander much better
3rd Base: Shaw vs Headley.....draw
Catcher: Leon vs Sanchez....Sanchez much better
RF: Betts vs Hicks....Betts in a landslide
CF: JBJ vs Ellsbury...JBJ in a landslide
LF: Beni/Young vs Gardener ....Beni/Young better
DH: Ortiz vs McCann....Ortiz in a landslide

Sox position bench > Yanks position bench

Sox starting pitching > Yanks starting pitching
Tanaka is the only starting pitcher that cracks our group. I'd take Porcello, Price, Pomeranz, Wright over the rest of the Yankee starters.

Sox pen > Yanks pen
Betances and maybe Clippard would crack our 7 RP right now.

The Sox hold an advantage at every position except catcher, one starter, and a reliever or two.

My verdict: this is a hammer and nail rivalry, and right now the Sox are the hammer.
 
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joe dokes

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Jul 18, 2005
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Giardi made some bad choices. I don't think that takes away from the fact that Hanley is on fire or basically won 3 of the 4 games for us. Neither has anything to do with Farrell making boneheaded decisions.

For the 10 hundred billionth time, the issue (for me, anyway) isn't that Farrell makes bad decisions. We can debate which ones are bad and how bad they are, and whether they were defensible in real time, but there is no doubt that he does it. The point is that other managers make bad decisions, too, as several of Girardi's decisions this weekend demonstrate. And if we watched 162 games of any other manager, we'd see a lot of the same stuff. The question, as it is when we compare players -- as benhogan did above - is how it falls in among his peers and whether his strengths outweigh them. Maybe Farrell's in game strategy is akin to David Ortiz's ability to play shortstop . I doubt it, but even if it is, maybe the response is "so what."