Assuming the Cubs finish off the Giants in 4 (since Bumgarner is apparently Kong), the winners of the gimmick games will be 5-5 in the Division Series round.
If one assumes that the point of the gimmick game is to further disadvantage the team that did not win a division, and also the plausible assumption that the team with the best record (TWBR) in the league is at least somewhat better than the wild card team, shouldn't we assume a better than 5-5 record? (Could, of course, be small sample size noise).
It is obviously a disadvantage to the team that loses the gimmick game. However, I am starting to wonder whether the gimmick game is a net benefit to the winner. This is for two reasons. First, the TWBR gets 3 or 4 days off, losing the day-to-day edge that is crucial for baseball, especially on offense. Whereas the gimmick game allows the winner to keep sharper, with no more than 2 days off in a row. Second, and less importantly, the gimmick game win generates some momentum, which can be carried over, while the TWBR often played out the string after clinching, and hasn't played a meaningful game in sometimes over a week.
If my theory that the time off affects offense disproportionately is correct, it could be tested with something like runs scored vs. expected runs scored for the TWBR, especially in the first two games of the series. Maybe I'll do that at some point, but it's probably not straightforward to control for park, starting pitchers, weather, etc. Might have to wait for a larger sample size too. Still, at 5-5, it has, to date, been no worse than a coin flip once you win the gimmick.
If one assumes that the point of the gimmick game is to further disadvantage the team that did not win a division, and also the plausible assumption that the team with the best record (TWBR) in the league is at least somewhat better than the wild card team, shouldn't we assume a better than 5-5 record? (Could, of course, be small sample size noise).
It is obviously a disadvantage to the team that loses the gimmick game. However, I am starting to wonder whether the gimmick game is a net benefit to the winner. This is for two reasons. First, the TWBR gets 3 or 4 days off, losing the day-to-day edge that is crucial for baseball, especially on offense. Whereas the gimmick game allows the winner to keep sharper, with no more than 2 days off in a row. Second, and less importantly, the gimmick game win generates some momentum, which can be carried over, while the TWBR often played out the string after clinching, and hasn't played a meaningful game in sometimes over a week.
If my theory that the time off affects offense disproportionately is correct, it could be tested with something like runs scored vs. expected runs scored for the TWBR, especially in the first two games of the series. Maybe I'll do that at some point, but it's probably not straightforward to control for park, starting pitchers, weather, etc. Might have to wait for a larger sample size too. Still, at 5-5, it has, to date, been no worse than a coin flip once you win the gimmick.