This is one of those "many things can be true at the same time," deals
- The start of the season has been frustrating
- It's way too early to know for sure what this team is.
On the first point, it has been frustrating and folks can and should be concerned about the overall quality of the team. The lack of offense, especially right-handed offense is something that could be a terminal flaw for the 2023 Red Sox. Beyond that, there are reasons to be concerned about Kluber and Sale (more on Sale in a moment).
Some of the issues are bad luck. Adam Duvall breaking his wrist is pretty brutal. Trevor Story getting hurt when he did, was also pretty awful, timing-wise. The offense looks a lot better with Story at 2B and Duvall in center with Hernandez and Arroyo splitting time on the bench and SS.
I was pleased with the Mondesi trade in terms of value; I never saw Taylor as a key piece for the team. That said, I think it's fair to critique that the team should have anticipated Mondesi missing significant time to start the season. He's a lotto ticket at this point. A guy who if he pans out can provide enough offense not to kill ya and is competent to good defense up the middle, while we wait for Mayer (a note on prospects later).
Kluber looking cooked can be attacked. I get it. I think it was an okay signing with limited upside, but in theory, he'd be a fine bulk IP option.
I feel like some of these problems are bad luck and some of them were avoidable. I think you can defend not re-signing Xander, but they needed to find another impact bat if they were going to do so. Being better offensively than 2022 is nice, but not likely enough to make a long post-season run (if you assume the premise that the team is improved over last year)
Okay, on to point 2.
The premise of the argument that Boston would be better than last year was as follows:
- The offense would be better with Casas replacing Dalbec, Yoshida, Turner, Mondesi and Duvall replacing Xander, Martinez, and the (1,100) plate appearances of Dalbec, Bradley, Duran, Pham, Hosmer, Sanchez and Shaw.
Obviously, the Duvall and Story injuries hurt this. But the rationale was sound. Casas is off to a slow start, but he has an excellent track record in the minors. If he washes out, that sucks for a variety of reasons. This team needs cost-controlled regular contributors so they can splurge elsewhere. We're sort of stuck with Casas trying to figure it out. Overall, I'm optimistic given his tack record.
Turner has been fine this year, he's just not started barrelling balls. If he corrects this, he'll be great. The K/BB rates are excellent. It's unlikely he went from a .160 ISO guy to a sub .100 ISO guy overnight. This was a shrewd acquisition which should look very good by year's end.
Yoshida has been fine thus far. Glad he's coming back. Small sample. Elite K/BB numbers. Power remains a question (small sample but he hits a lot of balls on the ground, thus far).
Mondesi is sort of an after thought in this plan, given when he was acquired. I like him as a speculative play, but let's be real, the guy is almost never healthy.
- The Starting Pitching would be better due to the possible returns of Chris Sale and James Paxton
The riskiest of the reasons to be optimistic. Thus far, Paxton is shoving in AAA and Sale has been awful in the majors.
Personally, I'm not too eager to pencil in any significant number of innings on Paxton. It's a nice scratch off lottery ticket, but it would be foolish to expect it to pay out. Sale has been dreadful, but he's managed to make it through the month healthy. His command is awful, but that can be forgiven due to the fact that he's pitched so little over the past 3 years. His stuff, while diminished still is drawing a good amount of whiffs, so I'm not completely panicked thus far.
Do I think he's likely to return to being a front-line starter? Absolutely not. But I do think one can be reasonably optimistic that he won't be useless this season.
- The entire pitching staff will benefit from Bello, Whitlock, and Houck being healthy and MLB ready. There are also a bunch of MLBish arms in the high minors or back end of the roster (Crawford, Kelly, Winkowski, Murphy, Mata, and Walter)
The theme of this whole post is that it's too early to tell, but thus far, Bello has looked great in the minors and is set to debut this week, Whitlock is back up (though looked rough hs first start) and Houck remains elite through 1 turn in the order, and garbage beyond (dude should be a bullpen ace).
In terms of depth, both Crawford and Kelly (before the injury) have looked the part in very small samples. Super small sample with the guys in AAA, though early returns have not been great from Murphy or Mata (Mata is intriguing still, but probably headed to pen by mid-season).
If either Bello and Whitlock emerge as a legit quality SP, the rotation is world's better. This is especially true if one of Sale or Paxton pan out.
If you accept the AL East is the class of the American League (it is, though the Astros remain dynasty-esque) the unbalanced schedule is probably the main reason Boston wasn't around .500 team last year. If we accept they "should" have won 5-7 more games last year, that's right outside the play-off picture.
The small changes made could in theory get them over the hump and into the play offs. Personally, I'm spoiled and limping into the postseason to get their asses kicked by a much better Yankees, Rays,Jays or Astros team doesn't do much for me but I understand what the plan was and I think you've got to let it ride until mid season before judging it too harshly.
A note on prospects:
Without picking on anyone, I've seen lot of prospects thrown around as potential assets for trade or potential big leaguers. On the subject of trades, I think teams have gotten savvy enough that they're not trading stars for prospects who aren't top-shelf. Further, when planning rosters for the future, it's probably not wise to assume a prospect will be a contributor unless they're performing in the high minors and well regarded.
I've seen folks refer to Blaze Jordan, who is an interesting prospect but not even in the org's top ten and Matthew Lugo, who has an interesting broad set of skills, but is solidly a 2nd or even third their prospect for this team.
In terms of prospects whom you can pencil in getting a regular major league starting shot, Boston really on has the following:
- Casas if he's still prospect eligible (he's graduating from SoxProspects this month)
- Yoshida (see above)
- Mayer (with the hedge that I'm slightly uncomfortable even assuming this, as he's not even in AA, yet. )
I'm actually high on the Sox System but generally you don't predict prospects will be major league caliber starting position players or Starting Pitchers.
Beyond those 3 a mix of types to track:
High Risk Potential Stars:
- Miguel Bleis
- Luis Perales
High Risk Potential Regulars:
- Cedanne Rafeala
- Mikey Romaro
- Nick Yorke
- Brandon Walter
- Roman Anthony
Guys who have some major league skills who could move into the above groups:
- Eddison Paulino
- Blaze Jordan
- Mathew Lugo
- Winkleman Gonzalez
- Emmanual Valdez
- Chris Murphey
- Niko Kavadas
- Luis Guerrero
- etc.
Generally, you're not trading people in that final group as the centerpiece in a trade. To get a significant asset, you're trading the likes of Mayer, Bleis, and Perales along with one of Rafeala, Romaro, York, Walter, or Anthony.