FO's Playoff odds through week 15:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds
Pats earn a bye in 95% of the simulations and the #1 seed 68% of the time. They make the AFCCG in 67% of the sims (2nd highest percentage), win the AFCCG in 40% of the sims (highest percentage) and bring home the Lombardi 22% of the time (highest percentage). They are now in the #1 spot for weighted DVOA.
[tablegrid= FO playoff odds ]
AFC East | | | | | | | |
Team | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
NE | 35.10% | 12.4 | 100% | 95% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
BUF | 14.00% | 9 | 0% | 0% | 6% | 6% | 1% |
MIA | 7.00% | 8.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -21% |
NYJ | -22.30% | 3.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| | | | | | | |
AFC North | | | | | | | |
Team | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
BAL | 28.60% | 10.5 | 26% | 0% | 62% | 88% | 7% |
PIT | 10.40% | 10.2 | 47% | 3% | 34% | 82% | 16% |
CIN | -1.90% | 10.2 | 27% | 2% | 52% | 78% | 28% |
CLE | -11.30% | 7.6 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -4% |
| | | | | | | |
AFC South | | | | | | | |
Team | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
IND | 8.90% | 11 | 100% | 3% | 0% | 100% | 2% |
HOU | -10.20% | 8.1 | 0% | 0% | 2% | 2% | -11% |
JAC | -26.10% | 3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
TEN | -35.90% | 2.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| | | | | | | |
AFC West | | | | | | | |
Team | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
DEN | 30.00% | 12.5 | 100% | 98% | 0% | 100% | 0% |
KC | 19.90% | 9.1 | 0% | 0% | 34% | 34% | -2% |
SD | 3.60% | 8.7 | 0% | 0% | 10% | 10% | -16% |
OAK | -28.20% | 2.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| | | | | | | |
NFC East | | | | | | | |
Team | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
DAL | 8.90% | 11.2 | 71% | 31% | 16% | 86% | 29% |
PHI | 14.90% | 10.2 | 29% | 0% | 6% | 35% | -44% |
NYG | -5.30% | 5.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
WAS | -36.40% | 3.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| | | | | | | |
NFC North | | | | | | | |
Team | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
GB | 22.20% | 11.4 | 57% | 44% | 36% | 93% | -4% |
DET | 4.30% | 10.8 | 43% | 30% | 46% | 89% | 12% |
MIN | -5.70% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
CHI | -22.90% | 5.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| | | | | | | |
NFC South | | | | | | | |
Team | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
NO | 3.80% | 7.2 | 65% | 0% | 0% | 65% | 16% |
CAR | -16.70% | 6.4 | 14% | 0% | 0% | 14% | 1% |
ATL | -6.70% | 6 | 21% | 0% | 0% | 21% | -17% |
TB | -24.60% | 2.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| | | | | | | |
NFC West | | | | | | | |
Team | WEI DVOA | Mean Wins | DIV | BYE | WC | TOT | CHANGE |
ARI | -8.00% | 11.7 | 46% | 46% | 54% | 100% | 6% |
SEA | 23.10% | 11.3 | 54% | 49% | 43% | 97% | 9% |
SF | 1.10% | 8.3 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | -8% |
STL | 7.20% | 7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
|
[/tablegrid]
Probabilities to earn a seed (cutoff 10%):
AFC
1) NE (67.6%), Den (32.2%)
2) Den (65.8%), NE (27.0%)
3) Indy (45.7%), Pit (29.7%), Cincy (12.0%), Balt (6.7% -- including because of the #4 probabilities)
4) Indy (51.6%), Balt (19.3%), Pit (14.4%), Cincy (13.2%)
5) Balt (37.3%), Cincy (24.7%), KC (21.9%), Pit (10.7%)
6) Cincy (26.8%), Balt (26.0%), Pit (23.4%), KC (12.2%)
NFC
1) Ari (36.2%), Sea (28%), Dal (18.1%), GB (15.6%)
2) GB (28.9%), Det (27.6%), Sea (20.6%), Dal (13.2%)
3) Dal (39.2%), Phi (29.4%), Det (13.1%), GB (12.8%)
4) NO (65.0%), Atl (21.0%), Car (14.0%)
5) Ari (43.1%), Sea (30.8%), GB (14.9%)
6) Det (43.0%), GB (20.7%), Sea (12.0%), Ari (11.0%)