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Alex Smith had a fine career overall. You don't think Mac could grow into a middle to late career Alex Smith?
Is he willing to do that for $16M/year, which is where Smith topped out? If so, sure. Otheriwse, the customary salary for a starting QB on his second contract will hamper the team from finding the very pieces Jones would need to make it worth it for the team.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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Burrow isn't far off from Mac's physical profile. Rivers and Brees weren't far off either from him physically. Manning didn't have a cannon even in his earlier days. All of these guys had success because they all had strong supporting casts. There is this myth that a QB can elevate his team to some fictional zenith. It's bullshit. All of it. The cabinet minister, the... Oops hey who doesn't quote Predator at least once a day?

Look at the best passing offenses last year in order:
Mahomes - Kelce and a bunch of WRs like the Pats have.
Herbert - he had Williams and Allen for most of the year + Ekeler who is one of the few great RB pass catchers.
Brady - Evans and Godwin
Cousins - JJ and Hock
Burrow - Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and good enough TEs who could also block well.
Goff - Amon-Ra
Allen - Diggs
Geno - Lockett, DK
Lawrence - Kirk, Engram, and Zay Jones is decent too - also they have HCDP. He's a top offensive mind. Kirk is better than anyone they have. Lawrence is also 10th on this list.

All of these teams have better pass catchers than the Pats. Let's at least see what he can do with decent support before saying you can't afford him and weapons. Most of these teams are paying or drafted a top shelf or multiple top shelf pass catchers. Oh and that doesn't even get into OL this year. You can't, imo anyway, think he needs more than the average top 10 offensive QB to succeed if he has nowhere near their offensive supports.

Also the list is missing Tua who if healthy will be up there. Even freaking Sam Howell has Dotson and Scary Terry! Can we give Mac anyone like that?
Any one of those QBs on this Patriots team as currently constructed and we're looking at 2-0. An elite pass catcher doesn't matter if the ball can't get there.
Looking at that list, Herbert, Burrow and Cousins are currently 0-2 with their elite receivers.
Baker Mayfield is 2-0 with Evans/Godwin.
Tampa would be 0-2 with Mac.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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Any one of those QBs on this Patriots team as currently constructed and we're looking at 2-0. An elite pass catcher doesn't matter if the ball can't get there.
Looking at that list, Herbert, Burrow and Cousins are currently 0-2 with their elite receivers.
Baker Mayfield is 2-0 with Evans/Godwin.
Tampa would be 0-2 with Mac.
You think Mac is that bad that Baker Mayfield is 2-0 but Mac would be 0-2? And you think that the Pats other than QB are so much better than the Bengals that Burrow would be 2-0 here despite being 0-2 with Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Mixon? I’m not disagreeing, I just don’t understand the logic in this post
 

Cellar-Door

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I love sneaking Amon
Any one of those QBs on this Patriots team as currently constructed and we're looking at 2-0. An elite pass catcher doesn't matter if the ball can't get there.
Looking at that list, Herbert, Burrow and Cousins are currently 0-2 with their elite receivers.
Baker Mayfield is 2-0 with Evans/Godwin.
Tampa would be 0-2 with Mac.
Not Goff, his resurgence has nothing to do with weapons (love me some Amon Ra, but he's a 4th round pick) and everything to do with an absolute monster O-line, he'd be 0-2 or 1-1 here and Mac would probably be 2-0.

But yeah it's all interelated. good QBs have top weapons in part because they make those guys better and let them show off their skills and both depend to an extent on the line.

I will say, I have watched by chance both Rams games... that is a team being elevated by their pocket QB. Their line isn't good, their passcatchers are flotsam and Jetsam. And yes he only has 1 TD, but Stafford is absolutely dealing, he is just putting the ball through keyholes on a ton of dropbacks.
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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You think Mac is that bad that Baker Mayfield is 2-0 but Mac would be 0-2? And you think that the Pats other than QB are so much better than the Bengals that Burrow would be 2-0 here despite being 0-2 with Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Mixon? I’m not disagreeing, I just don’t understand the logic in this post
Question 1 yes. Unfortunately anyway. I think they are essentially the same QB and Baker, this year, finds a way to win. Mac has completely lost that killer instinct. Question 2 yeah actually. The Pats are a good QB away from being a complete team. Mac Jones does not inspire confidence in anyone and it shows all over the offense and the opposing defense. Kid poops himself when rattled. Never going to win in this league if you can’t get that under wraps.
 

NomarsFool

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The Patriots offense just isn't good enough. Let me just state that up front.

But, there seems to be a lot of discussion that the Patriots' apparent philosophy of slow and steady vs. swing for the fences can't succeed. I'm not really sure that's true. If you can reliably get ~5 yards each play vs. get 15 yards every third play the average outcome is obviously about the same. The big difference, however, is that the second strategy would yield more variance, and most likely fewer possessions because in football, it's critically important to get 1st downs every 4 plays. Getting 30 yards on one play isn't useful if you have to punt it away a few plays later.

So, in my view, it's not necessarily a problem of approach, more a problem of the players just not being good enough.
 

luckiestman

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Question 1 yes. Unfortunately anyway. I think they are essentially the same QB and Baker, this year, finds a way to win. Mac has completely lost that killer instinct. Question 2 yeah actually. The Pats are a good QB away from being a complete team. Mac Jones does not inspire confidence in anyone and it shows all over the offense and the opposing defense. Kid poops himself when rattled. Never going to win in this league if you can’t get that under wraps.
I don’t really buy this, his stats against the blitz are pretty good. I don’t think he is a good quarterback but he doesn’t play like a coward.
 

lexrageorge

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I saw a game in which the Miami defenders were in Mac's face within a second of the snap literally all game. And despite that he completed over 70% of his passes on a night when the running game was non-existent. And Mac is being called a coward???? Seriously, we lost the plot. Anyone calling that OL decent or good enough for a QB like Mike Stafford did not watch the game. It was one of the worst performances I've seen from a Patriots OL since that game when they were shut out by Nick Saban's Dolphins.

Maybe Mac is not the answer, but anyone thinking this team would be 2-0 behind Mayfield or Stafford really needs to rewatch the tape from Sunday night.
 

8slim

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I think you can make a case that a better QB would have won the Eagles game. Assuming that better QB didn’t have the lousy 1st quarter that Mac did.

But last night? With that OL and lousy WR performance? Nope. No way.
 

Cellar-Door

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I saw a game in which the Miami defenders were in Mac's face within a second of the snap literally all game. And despite that he completed over 70% of his passes on a night when the running game was non-existent. And Mac is being called a coward???? Seriously, we lost the plot. Anyone calling that OL decent or good enough for a QB like Mike Stafford did not watch the game. It was one of the worst performances I've seen from a Patriots OL since that game when they were shut out by Nick Saban's Dolphins.

Maybe Mac is not the answer, but anyone thinking this team would be 2-0 behind Mayfield or Stafford really needs to rewatch the tape from Sunday night.
Mayfield sure.... Matt Stafford is a legit elite QB, very good chance we win last night's game with him, and that's not even a real knock on Mac, Stafford was a no doubt #1 pick and a perennial top QB for years. I mentioned him as an example of how you don't need great athleticsm to carry bad WRs and a subpar line, if you're smart and can make insane throws both deep and short. It wasn't meant to say "we need Stafford" but rather to note that guys with the traits to make tiny window throws anywhere on the field have incredible value, especially without top WR talent.

THe line was terrible last night, and that's why they are listed #1 on everyone's goat list, but.... the defense and ST were really good, that game could have been won by an elite QB performance, and Stafford might give you that. Also, just having a better QB that teams are scared of changes how they play you. Teams don't respect Mac's ability to make boundary throws downfield, and it shapes how they play us.
 

Seels

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The Patriots offense just isn't good enough. Let me just state that up front.

But, there seems to be a lot of discussion that the Patriots' apparent philosophy of slow and steady vs. swing for the fences can't succeed. I'm not really sure that's true. If you can reliably get ~5 yards each play vs. get 15 yards every third play the average outcome is obviously about the same. The big difference, however, is that the second strategy would yield more variance, and most likely fewer possessions because in football, it's critically important to get 1st downs every 4 plays. Getting 30 yards on one play isn't useful if you have to punt it away a few plays later.

So, in my view, it's not necessarily a problem of approach, more a problem of the players just not being good enough.
I wish the Pats just swung big for a player. The highest drafted offensive players in the BB era are Maroney and Graham at 21. You need elite talent to win in the NFL. Having a bunch of C+ players isn't going to get there.
 

wilked

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I wish the Pats just swung big for a player. The highest drafted offensive players in the BB era are Maroney and Graham at 21. You need elite talent to win in the NFL. Having a bunch of C+ players isn't going to get there.
 

Shelterdog

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I wish the Pats just swung big for a player. The highest drafted offensive players in the BB era are Maroney and Graham at 21. You need elite talent to win in the NFL. Having a bunch of C+ players isn't going to get there.
Sadly even in these past five down years they’ve simply won too many games to be able to draft the kind of elite talent you need to win in the NFL
 

j44thor

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Sadly even in these past five down years they’ve simply won too many games to be able to draft the kind of elite talent you need to win in the NFL
Not really, they just haven't picked the right groceries at the skill position, tonight notwithstanding they chose Michel over Chubb despite Chubb being the starter at GA. They chose Harry over Deebo and AJ Brown. The worst miss might be Thornton over Pickens who is exactly what Mac needs. If you hit on just one or two of those the offense is significantly better.
 

Shelterdog

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Not really, they just haven't picked the right groceries at the skill position, tonight notwithstanding they chose Michel over Chubb despite Chubb being the starter at GA. They chose Harry over Deebo and AJ Brown. The worst miss might be Thornton over Pickens who is exactly what Mac needs. If you hit on just one or two of those the offense is significantly better.
I agree with everything you wrote. Take another look at the post I was responding to again
 

Marciano490

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Is it possible the order of operations is backwards and our system just isn’t great at developing skill players? Like maybe Chubb and Pickens are middling with us?
 

Deathofthebambino

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The point is that every deal has costs and benefits and the benefits of the Brown and Hill deals are frontloaded--you're getting a top five receivers in the NFL for two years relatively cheap-and the costs are backloaded because the salaries go way up, the picks you traded away might be getting better and you'll wish you had them more, etc. You get to and win a superbowl, maybe it doesn't matter what the cost is. But I guaranty you if in three years a slow bad Hill is on the books for 30 million bucks they'll be flipping tables at Sons of Jim Jensen.
How are we defining relatively cheap? Hills cap hits for 2024 and 2025 totals over 65mil. I agree he prob doesn't see the last year of that deal without a restructuring, but his and AJ Browns contracts guarantee they see big money because the dead cap hits are enormous. And both of those teams went and made those deals after using top 10 picks at WR the previous year. That is the definition of giving your young qb players around them.

And Hurts is already got his second deal, although the big cap hits for him don't kick in until 2025.

With 85mil available next season, there's no reason the Pats can't bring in legit weapons on offense, play Mac another year and then resign him if it works.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Any one of those QBs on this Patriots team as currently constructed and we're looking at 2-0. An elite pass catcher doesn't matter if the ball can't get there.
Looking at that list, Herbert, Burrow and Cousins are currently 0-2 with their elite receivers.
Baker Mayfield is 2-0 with Evans/Godwin.
Tampa would be 0-2 with Mac.
Are we just ignoring that Mayfield played Minnesota and Chicago, while Mac played Philly and Miami? Let's see how Baker looks this week when Philly comes to town before penciling him in for a successful season.
 

SMU_Sox

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Is it possible the order of operations is backwards and our system just isn’t great at developing skill players? Like maybe Chubb and Pickens are middling with us?
Chubb worked best in zone but he was also great at running gap/power concepts. No. Pickens was a much more highly regarded prospect coming out. Thornton was a reach by 2 rounds going against the big board. They can develop guys. Meyers was a QB convert who had a year or two of WR experience, was a UDFA, and they developed him. It’s not like the WRs or TEs they don’t develop are going to success with other teams. Berrios as a role player is the exception.
 

Garshaparra

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Because it's the NFL you need to keep filling up holes (like, safety is an issue next year if you don't re-sign Dugger, for example; center is becoming an issue fast; you need more good DTs).
I think Mapu was a luxury they didn't need
IMHO, Mapu was drafted to replace Dugger next season, as there's going to be a solid market for him as a free agent. Dugger's play is puts him on the Minkah Fitzpatrick level, AAV nearing $20M for 4 years. The Pats could definitely pay him, but I think they'll try to splurge on Tee Higgins and Devin White in 2024 instead.
 

SMU_Sox

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I love sneaking Amon

Not Goff, his resurgence has nothing to do with weapons (love me some Amon Ra, but he's a 4th round pick) and everything to do with an absolute monster O-line, he'd be 0-2 or 1-1 here and Mac would probably be 2-0.

But yeah it's all interelated. good QBs have top weapons in part because they make those guys better and let them show off their skills and both depend to an extent on the line.

I will say, I have watched by chance both Rams games... that is a team being elevated by their pocket QB. Their line isn't good, their passcatchers are flotsam and Jetsam. And yes he only has 1 TD, but Stafford is absolutely dealing, he is just putting the ball through keyholes on a ton of dropbacks.
His draft status is irrelevant to how well he is performing. He's had 912 yards in year 1 and 1,161 yards last year. That was 10th best of all the WRs. He is really good. Once you prove you can play it doesn't matter where you were picked. He also made the pro bowl last year. You might want to reevaluate your stance on him. And Goff also is benefiting from Ben Johnson's scheme who easily could have been a HC if he had wanted last year.

You're right that he didn't have much help after Hock left but they also ran for 2,100 yards. So sure the OL helped and the scheme helped but without Amon-Ra St. Brown it doesn't happen. And discounting the guy because of where he was picked vs what he actually does on the field isn't fair imo.
 

Justthetippett

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IMHO, Mapu was drafted to replace Dugger next season, as there's going to be a solid market for him as a free agent. Dugger's play is puts him on the Minkah Fitzpatrick level, AAV nearing $20M for 4 years. The Pats could definitely pay him, but I think they'll try to splurge on Tee Higgins and Devin White in 2024 instead.
Dugger is going to have to make a lot more plays to get that contract. There's will be a market but I don't think it's near that level of $ right now.
 

Justthetippett

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Chubb worked best in zone but he was also great at running gap/power concepts. No. Pickens was a much more highly regarded prospect coming out. Thornton was a reach by 2 rounds going against the big board. They can develop guys. Meyers was a QB convert who had a year or two of WR experience, was a UDFA, and they developed him. It’s not like the WRs or TEs they don’t develop are going to success with other teams. Berrios as a role player is the exception.
With Pickens wasn't it the injury concern coming out?
 

Shelterdog

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How are we defining relatively cheap? Hills cap hits for 2024 and 2025 totals over 65mil. I agree he prob doesn't see the last year of that deal without a restructuring, but his and AJ Browns contracts guarantee they see big money because the dead cap hits are enormous. And both of those teams went and made those deals after using top 10 picks at WR the previous year. That is the definition of giving your young qb players around them.

And Hurts is already got his second deal, although the big cap hits for him don't kick in until 2025.

With 85mil available next season, there's no reason the Pats can't bring in legit weapons on offense, play Mac another year and then resign him if it works.
The Pats can afford big weapons for Mac next year if they want to. I’m guessing I wasn’t clear on Hill and Brown having cheap contracts now-Hill and Brown both have contracts that are cheap in the early years and very expensive-like starting QB expensive-in later years so figuring out if those deals are good deals for the time requires thinking about how good those deals are going to look in 24 and 25 when they do constrain the teams a lot.

it’s actually interesting, there’s a perception that the eagles and dolphins are using the savings at QB to buy great receivers to help their young QBs but that’s not accurate-they both backloaded the WR contracts to they are super cheap when the QBs are still
Cheap and expensive when the QBs get expensive
 

Eck'sSneakyCheese

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I don’t really buy this, his stats against the blitz are pretty good. I don’t think he is a good quarterback but he doesn’t play like a coward.
Watch him in big situations. He’s like a squirrel. There’s no calm in this kid and it affects his decision making under pressure. I think the NFL got too fast too quick for him. Can’t play under center because he can’t process. He doesn’t come across as resilient or someone that behaves well when things are down. He behaves kind of like an entitled brat and, for me anyway, it’s a big reason why I can’t get behind him.

The numbers under pressure are inflated because they’re play calls designed to get the ball out quickly. Kids under pressure constantly so he needs plays that are one step and release. We happen to have some people who are ok at drawing those up.

There are and have been QBs who can overcome horrendous line play for a game.

Also, just having a better QB that teams are scared of changes how they play you. Teams don't respect Mac's ability to make boundary throws downfield, and it shapes how they play us.
This is part of the problem with Mac. I tried to overlook the arm but it’s bad. All of his throws over 25 yards have enough hang time for half the secondary to make a play.

Game on the line, do I trust Mac to make the throw?

No.

How many do here? On the team? It wears you down.
 

BaseballJones

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Looking at various QBs and I came across what's left on Stafford's deal.

71088

At age 37, he's going to be a $50.5 million cap hit. Holy cow.
 

Traut

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This board has been having variations on the same discussion since half way through the 2019 season:

Is it the QB, the receivers, the line, or the coaching?

When all Brady had was a double covered Edelman he didn’t look very good.

People were calling for McDaniel’s head and then Patricia’s. Patricia deserved it.

The root of the problem is Bill the GM.

They haven’t invested in the kind of offensive talent that wins football games.

Setting that aside the problems here are:

1. the offensive line;
2. skilled position players; and….
3. Mac Jones.

The gulf between 1-2 and Mac Jones is a wide one. He may not be the solution but he’s not the problem.

He gets rid of the ball, generally makes good decisions, and can tuck and run when needed.

His pocket presence seems improved from his rookie year as does his footwork. His arm isn’t the strongest but it hardly strikes me anywhere near the biggest problem on this offense or with this team.
 

BaseballJones

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Arm strength has never been the most important thing in being an NFL quarterback. Far from it. Montana had an arm of modest strength. Of course it helps to have a strong arm, but it's far more important to be accurate, to "throw guys open", to process both pre- and post- snap, to make good decisions, and to be elusive in the pocket (even if you're not a "running" QB).

The big problem WITH MAC that I see is that he is prone to the really dumb play. He makes fewer mistakes than some other guys, but man, he just seems to make some bad plays in big situations. I think the Pats have bigger issues than Mac, and I've no doubt that if he was in SF or even Miami, he'd be doing great and the team would be doing great. They definitely need to build a better team around him, and I agree with others that it seems like he's not quite (at least not yet) the guy who will be able to raise the level of the team. Maybe he'll get there. He was solid as a rookie, was obviously handicapped last year by the coaches, and is just in year 3.

The problem with this from a team perspective is: what to do about his contract? They'll need to make a call about picking up that fifth year. Then they'll have to decide about his long term future. That's why THIS year is so important. I think Mac is definitely good enough to be a legit starter in the NFL, and so SOMEONE will pay him big money. I'm not positive it should be the Patriots. I'm not sure it shouldn't be, but I'm not sure it should be, if that makes sense.
 

Traut

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I think the Pats have bigger issues than Mac, and I've no doubt that if he was in SF or even Miami, he'd be doing great and the team would be doing great. They definitely need to build a better team around him, and I agree with others that it seems like he's not quite (at least not yet) the guy who will be able to raise the level of the team. Maybe he'll get there.
I sat in the last row of Gillette for Brady's last home game. It was against the Dolphins. The offense looked much the same as it does now. They kept throwing short screens and using quick routes to try and get something going. Edelman who at that time had lost a step was constantly double-covered. Brady was under constant pressure. And he threw an incredibly boneheaded pick 6 that cost them the game.

Looking around the league, you could do a lot worse than Mac Jones at QB.
 

BaseballJones

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I sat in the last row of Gillette for Brady's last home game. It was against the Dolphins. The offense looked much the same as it does now. They kept throwing short screens and using quick routes to try and get something going. Edelman who at that time had lost a step was constantly double-covered. Brady was under constant pressure. And he threw an incredibly boneheaded pick 6 that cost them the game.

Looking around the league, you could do a lot worse than Mac Jones at QB.
In the AFCCG following the 2015 season, the Pats were in Denver. Brady was besieged and even though he had prime Gronk and Edelman (and had Amendola and a great receiving RB in James White), he completed only 48% of his passes, had 2 int (to just 1 TD), and averaged 5.5 y/a. Now, to be fair, I've never, ever seen a QB under THAT much pressure in a game, but still. He had a good OL, top skill guys, and the pressure just ate his lunch.

Same thing happened to Mahomes in the Super Bowl against Tampa. Prime Kelce, prime Tyreek, and he only completed 53% of his passes, had 2 int (and zero TD), and averaged just 5.5 y/a.

When the QB is under constant pressure, the performance goes way, WAY down. Even for the elite, all-time great, quarterbacks.

Not that Mac is anywhere close to an elite, all-time great, QB, but the point stands. When the OL sucks, it's really, really hard to look good as a QB and get much offense going.

I still can't believe the 3rd and short run where they pitched to Stevenson, and the right guard literally just watched a defender run by him (as the guard sought out someone to block) and Stevenson was dropped for a 4-yard loss. That kind of OL play makes it extremely difficult to do anything positive on offense. I do think they found something, though, in a spread formation, with a fast tempo. Made it easier for Mac to identify things.
 

SMU_Sox

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What's crazy to me @BaseballJones is he has had one of the quickest releases in the NFL these past two weeks and yet has been under pressure on 31% and then 36% of dropbacks.

It's also Mac's third system in 3 years and with a bunch of new faces to throw to.

They are the worst graded run blocking unit per PFF - and while PFF individual grades stink their unit grades are more accurate. Want to know why they aren't running more under-center play action? Well you have to be able to run block and not give up internal pressure! They can't do that.

We talk about how to ruin young QBs and what exactly have they done to help him? Offensive line has been bad since 2022 and isn't looking better so far this year. Pass catchers are a bottom 6-7 group in the NFL. They can't run-block well and haven't since 2021. New OC each year for his first 3 years. Part of this is on BB the GM. He's an early goat this year. Offensively he signed Jonnu and Agholor to big deals which busted. Henry is fine he isn't a discount. Bourne is also fine but he's a role-player. And then they take 1 guy on day 2 or 3, Thornton. You can explain why each individual event happened but when you look at what he's given Mac to succeed vs what other teams have done with their young QB it's mismanagement. I love BB too but this isn't the way to succeed. And I am not even saying Mac is the answer either just that the situation sucks and that is on BB the GM, the pro-personnel staff, and their decisions in the draft to ignore WRs or select... Tyquan fucking Thornton. Bill hasn't lost his fastball he just is striking out too much with skill-players. So yeah, he's a goat for what has been happening early so far.
 

BaseballJones

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Team building is hard though, right? I mean, they only have so much money. They only have so many draft picks. So people are screaming for them to draft WRs high in the draft, and keep doing it like some other franchises do. Ok, but then they miss on some and it's like, oh they just suck at this. And also, every first round pick that goes to position X does not go to position Y. I think they have good enough skill players - you really don't see me complaining much about them (and if Mahomes had this group, they'd be seen as a group of really good, really solid receivers). I've always felt like the OL was what this team needed. I'd have liked to see them get a premium OT in the draft.

But then.... they wouldn't have Gonzalez, or maybe even White or Mapu, if they spent high draft capital on the OL.
 

8slim

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Team building is hard though, right? I mean, they only have so much money. They only have so many draft picks. So people are screaming for them to draft WRs high in the draft, and keep doing it like some other franchises do. Ok, but then they miss on some and it's like, oh they just suck at this. And also, every first round pick that goes to position X does not go to position Y. I think they have good enough skill players - you really don't see me complaining much about them (and if Mahomes had this group, they'd be seen as a group of really good, really solid receivers). I've always felt like the OL was what this team needed. I'd have liked to see them get a premium OT in the draft.

But then.... they wouldn't have Gonzalez, or maybe even White or Mapu, if they spent high draft capital on the OL.
A huge part of the problem is that Bill's notable failures in the draft, particularly at the WR and TE positions, forced him to spend substantial money on free agents to address those holes. Needless to say, that then hamstrings him from spending more on other areas of need, like OL.

Putting the O together has been a mess since the day Gronkowski announced his retirement in the spring of 2019. At varying times every offensive unit has had major issues that were either not addressed, or not solved. You can't say that about the D. This is specifically an offensive problem that Bill has really struggled to fix.
 

BaseballJones

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A huge part of the problem is that Bill's notable failures in the draft, particularly at the WR and TE positions, forced him to spend substantial money on free agents to address those holes. Needless to say, that then hamstrings him from spending more on other areas of need, like OL.

Putting the O together has been a mess since the day Gronkowski announced his retirement in the spring of 2019. At varying times every offensive unit has had major issues that were either not addressed, or not solved. You can't say that about the D. This is specifically an offensive problem that Bill has really struggled to fix.
I agree it's been a struggle. Every team has misses - here's the WR/TE that KC has picked since 2017:

2017
WR Jehu Chesson - who?

2018
WR Tremon Smith - who?

2019
WR Mecole Hardman - he's been OK, but he was a 2nd round pick so it's fair to say he's been a pretty big disappointment

2021
WR Cornell Powell - zero receptions in the NFL, has only played in 3 NFL games his entire career
TE Noah Gray - he's been ok for a late pick, but clearly nothing special

2022
WR Skyy Moore - seems like he has talent, but just 25 receptions in his career, and a 42.9% catch rate this season. 2nd round pick

2023
WR Rasheed Rice - another 2nd rounder...seems like he has ability - has 5 rec for 49 yards in two games this year as a rookie

So even a team as good at this as KC hasn't exactly lit it up drafting WR and TE since they last drafted a stud (Tyreek in 2016). If this was NE, we'd all be bashing them for this constant wave of bad or - at best - "meh" picks at these positions. They're able to cover it up because of Mahomes. But even then I think they're starting to see the impact of it.
 

Bowser

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Sep 27, 2019
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What's crazy to me @BaseballJones is he has had one of the quickest releases in the NFL these past two weeks and yet has been under pressure on 31% and then 36% of dropbacks.
Curious as to how many starting QBs you'd prefer Mac over? Not Z Wilson or Minshew ... the QBs who started in Week 1. And not factoring in contract status. Maybe 6-7?
 

rodderick

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I sat in the last row of Gillette for Brady's last home game. It was against the Dolphins. The offense looked much the same as it does now. They kept throwing short screens and using quick routes to try and get something going. Edelman who at that time had lost a step was constantly double-covered. Brady was under constant pressure. And he threw an incredibly boneheaded pick 6 that cost them the game.

Looking around the league, you could do a lot worse than Mac Jones at QB.
Elandon Roberts had 38 yards receiving that game. This offense lacks top tier talent, it's been a consistent failure in roster building, it's also miles better than what they had to end the year in 2019. Mike Gesicki is their 5th option in the passing game now, he'd be number 2 with a bullet on that team.

I want to push back a bit on the "oh my god, he has nothing around him, this is impossible" discourse. Yeah, they 100% lack elite talent at receiving, they don't have a game breaking player or someone you'd rotate coverage to in order to take away from the game. They don't have the guy who can win one on one consistently and be an option in do or die situations. I also think they go 5 deep in "accomplished, competent NFL receivers", and that does hold some value, even though I'd rather they have one elite guy, one really good guy and 3 JAGs. But it's not as awful a group as some believe it to be, in my opinion. I can't really square the fact that people were screaming for Kendrick Bourne to get snaps last year, liked the Juju pick up, loved the Henry and Gesicki acquisitions, with the belief that now all of a sudden none of these guys can play a lick.

Just as an example, is this group meaningfully different from Christian Kirk/Zay Jones/Evan Engram/Marvin Jones/Jamal Agnew? I don't really think it is. And the Jaguars had a top 8 passing offense with that crew.
 
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Cellar-Door

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His draft status is irrelevant to how well he is performing. He's had 912 yards in year 1 and 1,161 yards last year. That was 10th best of all the WRs. He is really good. Once you prove you can play it doesn't matter where you were picked. He also made the pro bowl last year. You might want to reevaluate your stance on him. And Goff also is benefiting from Ben Johnson's scheme who easily could have been a HC if he had wanted last year.

You're right that he didn't have much help after Hock left but they also ran for 2,100 yards. So sure the OL helped and the scheme helped but without Amon-Ra St. Brown it doesn't happen. And discounting the guy because of where he was picked vs what he actually does on the field isn't fair imo.
Oh I like Brown a lot, wanted him in that draft, my point was more, he isn't the no doubt stud draftee or FA people are calling for. We invested more in WRs than him and got nothing.
Juju had 933 yards last year for example, Agholor got 900 yards in LV the year before we signed him.

I think the question in part is... do we really have much worse weapons than some of these other teams, or do we not maximize our skill players (coaching and QB).
 

SMU_Sox

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Juju was coming off his best year since 2018 though and hasn't been much more than a contributor since 2018.

711051695134425228.png

He's also looked like he has none of his explosion.

Agholor meanwhile was coming off his best season ever when they signed him. One of the reasons it was not a great signing tbh:
1695134625334.png

For JJSS in KC it helps to get better looks behind Kelce. His best years were behind AB. Is it surprising he has a rebound when on KC with Andy Reid, Kelce, and Pat Mahomes?


Brown wasn't a no-doubt stud true. He is now though. :)

They invested in 2 guys so SSS. But yeah they bet on the wrong horses. They have also invested less and got more with Meyers! So it does cut both ways.
 

leftfieldlegacy

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In the AFCCG following the 2015 season, the Pats were in Denver. Brady was besieged and even though he had prime Gronk and Edelman (and had Amendola and a great receiving RB in James White), he completed only 48% of his passes, had 2 int (to just 1 TD), and averaged 5.5 y/a. Now, to be fair, I've never, ever seen a QB under THAT much pressure in a game, but still. He had a good OL, top skill guys, and the pressure just ate his lunch.
I think this was the game where the Denver D line or coaches picked up a "tell" on the Patriot center who was bobbing his head just before the snap so that the Denver DL actually was getting off the ball before the OL. Brady is lucky he didn't get killed that game.
 

tims4wins

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I think this was the game where the Denver D line or coaches picked up a "tell" on the Patriot center who was bobbing his head just before the snap so that the Denver DL actually was getting off the ball before the OL. Brady is lucky he didn't get killed that game.
Stork.

Edit: I never understood why they went back to Stork at C that year after they went like 10-0 with Andrews to start the year.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Oh I like Brown a lot, wanted him in that draft, my point was more, he isn't the no doubt stud draftee or FA people are calling for. We invested more in WRs than him and got nothing.
Juju had 933 yards last year for example, Agholor got 900 yards in LV the year before we signed him.

I think the question in part is... do we really have much worse weapons than some of these other teams, or do we not maximize our skill players (coaching and QB).
In addition to Brown and Deebo, the guy below was also in that draft. Also in the draft was Marquise Brown, Terry MacLaurin, Dawson Knox (after we just lost Gronk), Tony Pollard, Miles Sanders, etc. We wouldn't have even had to reach to get one of those guys. Fuck, Foster Moreau, Scotty Miller, Ty Johnson, Slayton, Hardman, Parris Campbell, Irv Smith Jr. All of them have literally had more production in the NFL than fucking N'Keal Harry.

Fuck me, I hate that draft:

71118
 

BaseballJones

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Thinking about N'Keal... how does a guy with his size, strength, ability to high point a pass, and who has pretty good hands (look at his ASU highlights - he makes some incredible catches) be so bad in the NFL? He's huge and strong and can go up and get it but....just never produced at all. And his speed wasn't bad - 4.53 - for a guy his size. For comparison to other big WRs:

Anquan Boldin: 4.71
Hines Ward: 4.55
Larry Fitzgerald: 4.63
Mike Evans: 4.53
Mike Williams: 4.51
Brandon Marshall: 4.52
Tee Higgins: 4.54
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Thinking about N'Keal... how does a guy with his size, strength, ability to high point a pass, and who has pretty good hands (look at his ASU highlights - he makes some incredible catches) be so bad in the NFL? He's huge and strong and can go up and get it but....just never produced at all.
Some guys can't adjust to the speed of the NFL. Look at Justin Fields, who I wanted over Mac in that draft. He can't process the game quickly enough.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Curious as to how many starting QBs you'd prefer Mac over? Not Z Wilson or Minshew ... the QBs who started in Week 1. And not factoring in contract status. Maybe 6-7?
Kind of impossible to not factor in contract status, but I'd take Mac over the following:

Fields
Mayfield
Tannehill
Watson
Stroud
Pickett
Howell
Ridder
Purdy
Dobbs

Factoring in contracts, I'd rather have Mac over:

Watson again (just because fuck him, I want him on this list twice)
R. Wilson
D. Jones
Probably a few others off the top of my head, but can't think of them


Quarterbacks I think would be successful (ie. possibility of winning a game or two in the playoffs with the Pats roster)

Mahomes
 

SMU_Sox

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Curious as to how many starting QBs you'd prefer Mac over? Not Z Wilson or Minshew ... the QBs who started in Week 1. And not factoring in contract status. Maybe 6-7?
Long term? Mahomes, Herbert, Lawrence, Burrow, Lamar, Allen, Richardson, Stroud, Hurts?, Dak?, Young?. So 9-11 guys. The guys I don't want are either aging or will be a lot pricier than Mac for the next two years. Short term though? Like if I got to pick a QB for just this year: Stafford, Rodgers if he was healthy, Tannehill maybe. That puts Mac around the middle of the pack. Cost of QB should be a factor. Mac would be in a group of a bunch of guys who start at QB15 and end somewhere around QB 22.

Elandon Roberts had 38 yards receiving that game. This offense lacks top tier talent, it's been a consistent failure in roster building, it's also miles better than what they had to end the year in 2019. Mike Gesicki is their 5th option in the passing game now, he'd be number 2 with a bullet on that team.

I want to push back a bit on the "oh my god, he has nothing around him, this is impossible" discourse. Yeah, they 100% lack elite talent at receiving, they don't have a game breaking player or someone you'd rotate coverage to in order to take away from the game. They don't have the guy who can win one on one consistently and be an option in do or die situations. I also think they go 5 deep in "accomplished, competent NFL receivers", and that does hold some value, even though I'd rather they have one elite guy, one really good guy and 3 JAGs. But it's not as awful a group as some believe it to be, in my opinion. I can't really square the fact that people were screaming for Kendrick Bourne to get snaps last year, liked the Juju pick up, loved the Henry and Gesicki acquisitions, with the belief that now all of a sudden none of these guys can play a lick.

Just as an example, is this group meaningfully different from Christian Kirk/Zay Jones/Evan Engram/Marvin Jones/Jamal Agnew? I don't really think it is. And the Jaguars had a top 8 passing offense with that crew.
That is interesting. I pushed back on KB last year, I liked the Juju pick-up because I thought he was a different guy with explosiveness and RAC ability. I was skeptical about Gesicki. I was skeptical along with Super Nomario on what they would be good at this year. I was hoping it would be pass and run blocking.

Christian Kirk is better than anyone on this roster at WR. Engram is a better pass-catcher at TE but individually Henry is fine. Jones and KB are comparable. Meaningfully different though, absolutely. Kirk and Engram are much more explosive and faster guys. Kirk was an ascending player and busted out from 900 yards to over 1,100 last year.

You can't just look at the 3 guys, think they all are ok WR3s and go with that though. You have to look imo deeper. What can we do scheme wise with these guys? If you have Bourne, Juju, Henry, and Parker on the field you are slow. Defenses don't have to respect them as vertical threats minus maybe Parker who can still make 50/50 catches. With the Fins they were leaving the checkdowns with a ton of space because they respected their speed and didn't want to give up big plays. When you don't have guys with the juice to threaten big plays defenses can play closer down to the LOS. They can sit on your underneath stuff. They can take away RAC from checkdowns. None of these guys are bad individually - it's just that they don't do much together as a unit. They also aren't the kind of guys who play well getting early separation. It would be one thing if these were your guys but you could pass block/run-block and have play-action or give you time for guys to get open.

OL wise though this is ridiculous. Having a run game would help. They can't run-block or pass-block so no play-action, lots of quick game with slow players. All these little issues compound on each other.

And a friendly reminder that the Jags had an easy schedule on offense and one of the easiest schedules in the league last year period last year.

Compare the their team-speed too. Engram, Jones, and Kirk are all 4.45 or faster runners. Combine 3 guys who are all twitched up and you can create space a lot easier.

You want a team of guys who can get open, right? Engram, Jones, and Kirk are faster, more explosive, better pass catchers, and can get open much easier than an over the hill Parker, a sapped Juju, and Bourne who isn't a speedy player - more a horizontal guy but his attention to details in routes is not great.

So yes, in a lot of ways it isn't like bottom 3-4 in the league but EPA and efficiency stats are bottom 3rd right now.

EPA rate is around 24th-26th per play total. I think they have a bottom 6-7 set of pass catchers. Passing impacts EPA much more significantly than running. So yeah, they are right where I thought they would be EPA wise.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Apr 12, 2005
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Thinking about N'Keal... how does a guy with his size, strength, ability to high point a pass, and who has pretty good hands (look at his ASU highlights - he makes some incredible catches) be so bad in the NFL? He's huge and strong and can go up and get it but....just never produced at all. And his speed wasn't bad - 4.53 - for a guy his size. For comparison to other big WRs:

Anquan Boldin: 4.71
Hines Ward: 4.55
Larry Fitzgerald: 4.63
Mike Evans: 4.53
Mike Williams: 4.51
Brandon Marshall: 4.52
Tee Higgins: 4.54
I've said this more than a few times.

The competition that N'Keal Harry played in college, both in practice and games, was nothing compared to what other guys played in. There's always going to be outliers (like Brandon Marshall from your list, or Randy Moss or Tyreek), but LSU is consistently producing guys like OBJ, JJ, Chase, etc. Waddle, DaVonta Smith coming from Bama...Metcalf from Ole Miss, Deebo from South Carolina, Tee Higgins/Williams from Clemson, MacLaurin, or Olave/MacLaurin from OSU, etc.

Then you reach on a PAC-12 guy like Harry (and I thought it was a reach) and you get what you get....Fucking PAC-12 even a conference anymore?