As with Kull's misunderstanding earlier, the maximum WPA for a last-second game-tying play (i.e. even if you were at effectively 0% beforehand) is 50%, because you then go to overtime which has to be regarded as a 50-50 outcome. Same is true for a game-winning play from a tied position, because the status quo from before the play was still a >=50% chance of victory. The only way you get over 50% is by seizing last-minute victory from the jaws of defeat, or vice-versa.The tackle to prevent the Titans from getting that TD that would have tied the game with no time remaining?
As linked earlier in this thread, Hal Smith's 3-run HR to re-re-take the lead in 1960 Game 7 is the highest championship-probability-added play in MLB history, it had a 64% WPA within the game. Came in the 8th inning. Mazeroski's walk-off came from a tied position, so its WPA was only 37%. Speaking of which, just reading about that game is as intense an experience as any game I've ever watched live, just like reading the play-by-play still makes my jaw drop. 2004 ALCS Game 5 is still the biggest heart-pounding sports experience of my lifetime. But nearly 70 years later that 1960 game looks an absurd heavyweight slugfest on paper, so I can only imagine how it must have felt watching it live.
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