Greened Illusion: Lebron to the Celtics

cheech13

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The moment LeBron tells Cleveland he ain’t coming back and opts out, he holds 80% of the leverage with Cleveland. It would take nowhere near Jayson Tatum to complete a deal - Kyrie/salary filler and the Sac pick alone might do it. LeBron can always threaten to leave for LA or Philly for nothing (though he’d lose some money doing so).
But Kyrie isn't going back to Cleveland. You'd have to engineer a three-team deal and hope that whatever team you find is going to be pleasing to Irving (and more importantly, Irving's agent) and give you the picks and players that Cleveland desires. Sure it's doable but it's complicated.

On the money front, he loses if he leaves Cleveland. Philly, Boston and LA are all going to offer the same contract.
 

Ed Hillel

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But Kyrie isn't going back to Cleveland. You'd have to engineer a three-team deal and hope that whatever team you find is going to be pleasing to Irving (and more importantly, Irving's agent) and give you the picks and players that Cleveland desires. Sure it's doable but it's complicated.

On the money front, he loses if he leaves Cleveland. Philly, Boston and LA are all going to offer the same contract.
Is Kyrie going to quit and leave 22 million on the table? He’d play there for a year and then try to work a sign and trade, which would net Cleveland more assets. So Cleveland gets at a minimum the Sac pick, whatever they get for Kyrie when he leaves in a sign and trade, plus probably a few other assets (maybe Memphis, maybe Rozier to move). That’s a great get for a sign and trade.

Cleveland really needs lottery ticket picks, because the only way they’re going to compete down the road is with a young superstar they draft. Nobody’s going there otherwise. I actually wonder if a sign and trade to Philly for Fultz/Covington/Saric would interest both sides. Philly could then add another max in free agency.
 

DannyDarwinism

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From what I remember, the original source of the Lebron to Philly rumors was old friend Alaa Abdelnaby saying he heard that Lebron was looking at Philly area schools for his kids. Lebron denied it. I don’t know if there’s been anything more since that, but clearly Vegas thinks there’s a decent enough (i.e. 30% or so) chance, and that’s a good enough reason for me to believe there’s one too. Sure would be fun to watch the Cs take down a Lebron-led Sixers superteam though.
 

cheech13

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Is Kyrie going to quit and leave 22 million on the table? He’d play there for a year and then try to work a sign and trade, which would net Cleveland more assets. So Cleveland gets at a minimum the Sac pick, whatever they get for Kyrie when he leaves in a sign and trade, plus probably a few other assets (maybe Memphis, maybe Rozier to move). That’s a great get for a sign and trade.

Cleveland really needs lottery ticket picks, because the only way they’re going to compete down the road is with a young superstar they draft. Nobody’s going there otherwise. I actually wonder if a sign and trade to Philly for Fultz/Covington/Saric would interest both sides. Philly could then add another max in free agency.
Kyrie broke up a championship-level team in Cleveland because he hated the organization. He literally threatened to get surgery and miss the season if he they didn't trade him and they settled for what became pennies on the dollar. You think Cleveland is just going to welcome him back now? You think Kryie goes back willingly? Also, Kyrie shares an agent with Jayson Tatum. You're going to tell Tatum's agent that they are shipping Kyrie back to the team he demanded a trade from to bring in a player that is going to steal his other client's minutes? That's not how any of this works in real life.
 
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BigSoxFan

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That’s a far worse return than Kyrie and next years Sacramento pick. Which is why the Celtics aren’t trading Tatum.
Yeah, there is no way we'd need to include Tatum and we clearly wouldn't. Capela is a nice player but what exactly does he do for a team like Cleveland that is rebuilding and which already has a no-offense big man in Tristan Thompson clogging the paint for another 2 years? A team like Cleveland will want young players and valuable picks and Houston has a lot less to offer in this department than other teams.

I think the Kyrie dynamic would prove to be problematic to compete a deal since he would have to either agree to go back to Cleveland or agree to go to another team that he might re-sign with the following summer. The Knicks are certainly one option and they make sense because they desperately need star power and Kyrie has expressed interest in them. Hard to say where else he might consider. The Spurs are another team he might go to but they have nothing to offer a rebuilding team. Of course, Ainge has the ability to sweeten the deal (e.g., Memphis pick) to get it to the finish line, which would basically mean that whichever team gets Kyrie in this scenario would be getting a great bargain.
 

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Kyrie broke up a championship-level team in Cleveland because he hated the organization. He literally threatened to get surgery and miss the season if he they didn't trade him and they settled for what became pennies on the dollar. You think Cleveland is just going to welcome him back now? You think Kryie goes back willingly? Also, Kyrie shares an agent with Jayson Tatum. You're going to tell Tatum's agent that they are shipping Kyrie back to the team he demand a trade from to bring in a player that is going to steal his other client's minutes? That's not how any of this works in real life.
Plus, in Kyrie, Horford, and Hayward, we have three stars who chose to come here.

The sense that something is being built here has become and should continue to be big plus in drawing talent here--especially since the weather is cold. ;)
 

Captaincoop

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This is not happening. LeBron is stirring the pot and messing with Kyrie by mentioning Boston. And maybe encouraging Houston to feel some additional urgency.
 

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And yet we heard that Hayward was given a ton of on-court stuff about how they will unlock even more of his potential. Lesson learned?
Maybe. I think the off-field stuff might have made more of an impact if he wasn't going to a guaranteed championship team, though.

The reason for that pitch from Boston is, "Winning in Boston would be better than winning with GS." (a.k.a. The Schilling Pitch.) The downside is that winning in Boston was more of a conditional, whereas winning with GS was all but given. I can see how it might still move the needle with a player in a different situation.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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This is not happening. LeBron is stirring the pot and messing with Kyrie by mentioning Boston. And maybe encouraging Houston to feel some additional urgency.
Kind of a shame* the Celtics are so good already. Ainge would be the one GM who could squeeze 3 distant future unprotected 1sts (just in time for Houston to be terrible) for taking the contracts Houston needs to unload, and would be comfortable enough in his job to do it.

*Obviously joking here
 

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Kind of a shame* the Celtics are so good already. Ainge would be the one GM who could squeeze 3 distant future unprotected 1sts (just in time for Houston to be terrible) for taking the contracts Houston needs to unload, and would be comfortable enough in his job to do it.

*Obviously joking here
83-0!!
 

BigSoxFan

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This is not happening. LeBron is stirring the pot and messing with Kyrie by mentioning Boston. And maybe encouraging Houston to feel some additional urgency.
Hey buddy, this is the dreamer thread. Rational thinking doesn't belong here. And I don't think Houston needs any additional urgency on the LeBron front. They will be collectively hyperventilating trying to land him.

Ultimately, the spots that he can sign outright with (Philly, LA) will be easier for him to re-make a team in his image and those should be the favorites for now.
 

snowmanny

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I do find the irony of you constantly tooling on me for being thin skinned and a homer delicious

And I haven't brought up anything to do with Philly at any point, except to say that the SAS report was neither the first nor only report of his potential interest re Philly. There is a whole other thread about that. So I am unclear why people keep bringing it up here.

Obviously the Celtics would be better with LeBron, but it seems a very high hurdle which would require his commitment before finding out if ainge could even make it happen.
But I'm sure SAS thought of that before his notoriously well sourced nonsense aired.

Yawn
OK. Point made. You're on record that SAS is making stuff up and LeBron absolutely won't have a conversation with the Celtics. I guess we will find out for sure soon.
 

LondonSox

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OK. Point made. You're on record that SAS is making stuff up and LeBron absolutely won't have a conversation with the Celtics. I guess we will find out for sure soon.
No I said getting excited because SAS dropped a comment is silly.
It is silly. I never said he wouldn't look at Boston or that he wouldn't have a conversation.
I said getting all filled up because that giant douche dropped it in a comment out of the blue is laughable.

But please continue getting upset about that. It really isn't a controversial point
 

snowmanny

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I'm pretty sure I'm not upset or excited or filled up. I just have no clue what you're arguing in this thread. Although I am quite sure of your motivations. I'm pretty sure folks had started this conversation, mostly for fun, before Smith made his comments.
 

Ed Hillel

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Kyrie broke up a championship-level team in Cleveland because he hated the organization. He literally threatened to get surgery and miss the season if he they didn't trade him and they settled for what became pennies on the dollar. You think Cleveland is just going to welcome him back now? You think Kryie goes back willingly? Also, Kyrie shares an agent with Jayson Tatum. You're going to tell Tatum's agent that they are shipping Kyrie back to the team he demanded a trade from to bring in a player that is going to steal his other client's minutes? That's not how any of this works in real life.
Fine, whatever, you add a third team. Either way, this is ridiculous. LeBron is going to end up where he wants, period. If he wants to come to Boston, there is a 100% chance Kyrie is traded to Cleveland or somewhere else in a 3-way deal to make it happen. Kyrie is not the piece the Cavs will be getting to facilitate it (that’s the draft picks), he’s just a salary match and potential asset. One hundred percent.
Plus, in Kyrie, Horford, and Hayward, we have three stars who chose to come here.

The sense that something is being built here has become and should continue to be big plus in drawing talent here--especially since the weather is cold. ;)
Kyrie didn’t really choose to come here at all. He was traded and got lucky. I’d love for him to remain healthy and sign a max next offseason, but if LeBron says “pick me,” Danny’s pushing Kyrie all the way to Logan.

Now if you told me 100% LeBron goes to LA or stays in Cleveland, I’m cool with that. But the absolute nightmare scenarios are him in Golden State or Philly. Danny would be crazy to risk that happening and not take LeBron up on an offer.
 
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LondonSox

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I'm pretty sure I'm not upset or excited or filled up. I just have no clue what you're arguing in this thread. Although I am quite sure of your motivations. I'm pretty sure folks had started this conversation, mostly for fun, before Smith made his comments.
What are my motivations then? Because it was tooling on people for listening to SAS, I was pretty fucking clear about it.
And it was split out from another thread as a result.

Since you know so good damned much about every post and everyone who ever posts and their motivation I'm sure you knew that and we're just acting like an ass?

Why do people insist on assigning me other motivations for wanting to talk about basketball with the people on here who also want to. That's what this is for no?
 

southshoresoxfan

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What are my motivations then? Because it was tooling on people for listening to SAS, I was pretty fucking clear about it.
And it was split out from another thread as a result.

Since you know so good damned much about every post and everyone who ever posts and their motivation I'm sure you knew that and we're just acting like an ass?

Why do people insist on assigning me other motivations for wanting to talk about basketball with the people on here who also want to. That's what this is for no?
Because you poke and prod and then when you’re called out on it you play the “you guys started it card”

Your team got smoked by our B squad. I know that’s a tough pill to swallow. Maybe with LeBron you can take the Cs to 6. Maybe.
 

snowmanny

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Since you know so good damned much about every post and everyone who ever posts and their motivation I'm sure you knew that and we're just acting like an ass?

[\QUOTE]



I don't really know so much about most posters' motivations.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hey buddy, this is the dreamer thread. Rational thinking doesn't belong here. And I don't think Houston needs any additional urgency on the LeBron front. They will be collectively hyperventilating trying to land him.

Ultimately, the spots that he can sign outright with (Philly, LA) will be easier for him to re-make a team in his image and those should be the favorites for now.
While I think LeBron and all parties involved would love to have him in Houston they have a lot of work to do to make numbers work especially with Chris Paul as President of the Players Union which essentially means that he cannot take a discount or be involved in facilitating a discount being in his position. Dumping Eric Gordon's salary will be easy and you can always renounce Nene but finding a taker for Ryan Anderson's remaining 2/$41m will be quite a bit more challenging without much else to sweeten the pot.

I'm a firm believer in agents controlling player movement in this league and when the parties want to go someplace there are creative ways to make it happen.......but the Rockets situation will certainly test my belief here.
 

Devizier

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While I think LeBron and all parties involved would love to have him in Houston they have a lot of work to do to make numbers work especially with Chris Paul as President of the Players Union which essentially means that he cannot take a discount or be involved in facilitating a discount being in his position. Dumping Eric Gordon's salary will be easy and you can always renounce Nene but finding a taker for Ryan Anderson's remaining 2/$41m will be quite a bit more challenging without much else to sweeten the pot.

I'm a firm believer in agents controlling player movement in this league and when the parties want to go someplace there are creative ways to make it happen.......but the Rockets situation will certainly test my belief here.
If you're Cleveland, why not just ask for the Brooklyn haul?
 

cheech13

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Portland would still probably do Anderson for Harkless and Leonard, especially if there was a pick attached. Then it's just Harkless/Gordon/Nene or something like that for Lebron. It's a long shot but Morey is a hell of lot more creative than I am.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Yea, you can do a Anderson + Gordon + 2020 + 2022 + a pick swap or something. Anderson is pretty useless but Gordon could be flipped and fetch them an asset as well.
Yuck, that's a pretty brutal return taking back $70m in contracts for role players and only getting a couple picks likely in the mid to high 20's.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Yuck, that's a pretty brutal return taking back $70m in contracts for role players and only getting a couple picks likely in the mid to high 20's.
I'm not sure....I don't think anyone has any real idea what the 2022 pick will be, do they? I guess you have to assume Harden re-signs and thus it's not a great pick but that far out, you're post everyone else and Harden has FA in between so there's some upside (as there was wtih Brooklyn). Maybe the owner will decide to get cheap in the interim too?

I feel like we had this exact discussion in a different thread already!
 

cheech13

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I'm not sure....I don't think anyone has any real idea what the 2022 pick will be, do they? I guess you have to assume Harden re-signs and thus it's not a great pick but that far out, you're post everyone else and Harden has FA in between so there's some upside (as there was wtih Brooklyn). Maybe the owner will decide to get cheap in the interim too?

I feel like we had this exact discussion in a different thread already!
Harden is under contract through 2023.
 

HomeRunBaker

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I'm not sure....I don't think anyone has any real idea what the 2022 pick will be, do they? I guess you have to assume Harden re-signs and thus it's not a great pick but that far out, you're post everyone else and Harden has FA in between so there's some upside (as there was wtih Brooklyn). Maybe the owner will decide to get cheap in the interim too?

I feel like we had this exact discussion in a different thread already!
Assuming Houston has Harden and LeBron, along with Capela, in 3-4 years this isn't remotely close to the Brooklyn scenario when we knew Garnett and Pierce would retired and the team would be rebuilding when these picks came due.
 

BigSoxFan

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RedOctober3829

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Russillo doubling down on LeBron not coming to Boston.


LeBron is not going to Boston. The list of potential teams may be long to not rule anyone out but I have talked to sources all year on this. I believe the list of REAL landing spots is much shorter.
 

TripleOT

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From a pure basketball standpoint, it does make sense. But we’ll see what LeBron wants. I would love to see what Ainge would do if LeBron said that he’ll come to Boston only if Horford and Kyrie stay, which would mean Hayward. I think he would ultimately do it but that would be a tough one PR-wise.
As the writer in The Ringer article points out, Ainge moved IT after the guy jeopardized his career playing with an injury. DA has proven that he will do any deal to make his team better. Ainge owes nothing to Hayward, loyalty-wise. How does this move look to NBA players? It looks cold, calculated, and exactly how a player looking for a title would want their GM to act.

Hayward, Yabusele, (and flotsam, if necessary for salary matching) and the 27th pick for LeBron is the best deal to make next year's Celtics team. I like the idea of having Morris as another body to throw at Durant, so I'd prefer him not to be in the deal, if possible.

The "LeBron to Boston as his best chance for titles" talk is heating up, and will continue after the Cavs get swept tonight. I hope LeBron puts up a 50 point triple double, and his team still loses.
 

BigSoxFan

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Russillo doubling down on LeBron not coming to Boston.


LeBron is not going to Boston. The list of potential teams may be long to not rule anyone out but I have talked to sources all year on this. I believe the list of REAL landing spots is much shorter.
I mean, he's probably right. It's probably LA, CLE, HOU, and maybe PHI.
 

Eddie Jurak

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From a pure basketball standpoint, it does make sense. But we’ll see what LeBron wants. I would love to see what Ainge would do if LeBron said that he’ll come to Boston only if Horford and Kyrie stay, which would mean Hayward. I think he would ultimately do it but that would be a tough one PR-wise.
I think the one thing we can be absolutely certain of is that Hayward won’t be shipped out in a Lebron trade. Yes, indeed, all things equal, Danny would do it. All things are not equal though - Danny probably does not want to antagonize his coach.

I think it’s a deal around Kyrie going to a third team or (and far more likely) Lebron going somewhere else.

The one (and there is only one) reason the Celtics get a mention here is because Lebron just saw how the Celtics’ up and coming young supporting cast, minus its stars, came within 6 minutes of sending him him early for the first time in nearly a decade. That means if he came here in a deal that didn’t strip mine the roster to make room for him (which is possible) he would come in knowing that he had the supporting cast he needed to win it.

That’s a compelling reason. All other things equal, Boston would be a front runner. But of course they aren’t.

I’d peg Boston’s chances at between 1% and 5%. There will be several teams out there whose chances are multiples of that.
 

cheech13

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Russillo is plugged in so I trust his opinion, but I doubt even LeBron knows exactly what he’ll do. A lot can change between now and July 1.
 

Koufax

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That would be wonderful. It could revive the Celtics Lakers rivalry.
 

BigSoxFan

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My feeling all along has been that it's the Lakers, period. But that's a boring story.
I’m with you. Have long felt that Magic will reel in his guy. He has the cap space and the necessary young players to tweak the roster.

Bron going to Lakers would be good for us and great for the NBA.
 

TheRooster

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Well, I believe LeBron knows exactly what he's going to do. There won't be any truly new data between now and the time he signs and after all this time in the league he knows all the relevant people. I expect him to end up in LA and sincerely hope he doesn't' land in Philly.

I won't read the Ringer piece as I despise Tjarks and don't value his opinion at all.
 

the moops

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Only way I can see Lebron going LAL is if it is with George and Kawhi. Or something along those lines. A lineup of Lebron/George plus Laker young dudes isn't winning a title.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Assuming Houston has Harden and LeBron, along with Capela, in 3-4 years this isn't remotely close to the Brooklyn scenario when we knew Garnett and Pierce would retired and the team would be rebuilding when these picks came due.
Right, I forgot Harden's second extension which does make the pick a lot less interesting.
 

Royal Reader

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I was considering possible outside shot landing spots for LeBron that I haven't seen mentioned anywhere- could Chicago work? They have the second-most cap space, and the seventh overall pick could be turned into someone pretty flippable. Robin Lopez' expiring contract also looks moveable. The advantages over LA would be the pick and getting to stay in the East, the disadvantages the relatively lesser upside of the roster and... well, it not being LA. The Jordan legacy thing I guess could go either way. I'm not saying they'd be a favorite, but if he doesn't fit with what's already on the Sixers, and doesn't want to have to go through both Houston and Golden State just to make the finals... that seems a better fit than Boston.
 

the moops

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CHI has a terrible roster. They would need to move so many pieces in order to put a playoff team around Lebron. Not even sure they have enough young assets to make it work though
 

BigSoxFan

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CHI has a terrible roster. They would need to move so many pieces in order to put a playoff team around Lebron. Not even sure they have enough young assets to make it work though
Yeah, I'm not seeing it. As of right now, their top assets are:

Markkannen
Dunn
#7

Even if LeBron brings George with him, that team is not nearly good enough.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Well, I believe LeBron knows exactly what he's going to do. There won't be any truly new data between now and the time he signs and after all this time in the league he knows all the relevant people. I expect him to end up in LA and sincerely hope he doesn't' land in Philly.

I won't read the Ringer piece as I despise Tjarks and don't value his opinion at all.
Absolutely. James, Bosh, and Wade were in talks for months (if not longer) about playing together. He knows the players he wants to play with, and most likely the place he'd like to do it. Going to be an exciting summer, because pretty much any place he chooses is going to be involved in multiple major deals to bring in the player(s) he wants. This stuff isn't decided at one 4 hour glorified powerpoint or whatever. Hell, the Lakers laid the groundwork last summer by doing Rich Paul a favor with the KCP bailout.

That's part of why I'm discounting Philly's chances more than others may be. Simmons is a complicating factor. The move, pretty clearly, is to trade him for that other star, whoever it would be, but maybe the Philly braintrust (whoever it is) isn't down with that plan on the same level that Rich Paul and LeBron would be. Philly isn't Cleveland, who 100% NEEDED LBJ and would have made any move he wanted to lock him down.
 

JakeRae

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Well, I believe LeBron knows exactly what he's going to do. There won't be any truly new data between now and the time he signs and after all this time in the league he knows all the relevant people. I expect him to end up in LA and sincerely hope he doesn't' land in Philly.

I won't read the Ringer piece as I despise Tjarks and don't value his opinion at all.
That's the right choice. Tjarks piece is awful, in significant part because he doesn't understand the salary cap at all. For example, he operates from the premise that salaries need to match when the Celtics actually only need to get to 80% of Lebron's salary. He also, as a smaller issue, is proposing the Chris Paul pick up option and trade move but is using Lebron's salary next season as the target when that trade would happen this season because the whole point is to preserve his Bird rights by trading him not in his final contract year. I can forgive the latter mistake as it is pretty nuanced and new, but the matching issue is pathetic as that rule has existed in relatively similar form for a long time.

The upshot of all this is that his trade packages are wrong. The Hayward deal can be straight up. There is no reason Morris would be involved unless Cleveland wanted him. The Kyrie proposal doesn't need to stripmine the roster. Kyrie, Morris, Yabu, and Nader is enough salary. You can swap in various versions with Theis, Semi, or Rozier replacing some of the latter two and still make it work.

In the end, I don't see Lebron wanting to come to Boston, but if he did, I think a trade based around Kyrie getting shipped out to a third team and Cleveland netting whatever Kyrie returns plus the above filler is a pretty great return for a departing free agent.
 

Ed Hillel

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Other than all the mistakes, this article is objective FACT. Outside of Golden State, there is no better choice to build a winner than Boston for the next 5 years or so. And there are a multitude of ways to get it done pretty easily. Danny doesn’t give a shit about loyalty, this is a business and nobody’s better at separating emotion from logic in it than Danny Ainge.

I’d be surprised if LeBron didn’t at least talk with Danny, but we’ll see. He might have his mind made up 3 months ago.