Have the Patriots been uncommonly lucky?
- Thread starter InstaFace
- Start date
Someone did this but every winning record team intra-division record over time is generally materially worse than out of division. Except NE. Rivalries and playing teams twice tend to bring teams closer to norm. The BEST QB the Pats have faced since Brady was there in division is Chad Pennington. After that it’s either Vinnie Testaverde or Ryan tannehill.
The only division where only two teams have advanced past wild card round over that time is afc east.
The pats have played two games in last two weeks December that mattered as to division title. They’ve only had a couple more that mattered for determining a bye or not. This has to help with regards to health and game planning.
So while the Pats are totally dominant, they’ve been incredibly lucky that they play in the AFC East over the past 18 years.
The only division where only two teams have advanced past wild card round over that time is afc east.
The pats have played two games in last two weeks December that mattered as to division title. They’ve only had a couple more that mattered for determining a bye or not. This has to help with regards to health and game planning.
So while the Pats are totally dominant, they’ve been incredibly lucky that they play in the AFC East over the past 18 years.
I'm not aware of any video of this, but if you have a link that would be dope.
I did find Belichick's press conference comments: http://www.patriots.com/news/2016/04/16/flashback-bill-belichick-drafting-patriots-qb-tom-brady
My guess is they had like a third round grade on Brady. If they had a first-round grade they would have presumably taken him earlier, and if they had a four or a five on him it seems like they wouldn't have bothered with the QB room they already had.
We can disagree Rev. But there is no Way I can buy that BB was that good of poker player to let a guy who he thought could be an NFL Starter Fall and Fall and Fall. He knows how valuable that is and He has NEVER done that again and driven many of us insane because of it.
Basically he picks you where he believes you should go. After these qoutes and expressions did he trade up to snag this falling gem?
This is the same guy who year in year out takes guys way "out of slot" because he like them and sees things others dont.
It simply doesnt make sense that he gambled that Martin (Pit 163), Bulger (NO 168) and Wynn (Cle 183) gets picked before a guy he REALLY likes.
(Ok betting against Cleveland usually does make sense
)
Smart that he DID take him around that 200 mark as 4 of the next 14 picks were QBs. (202,205,212, 214).
I will try to find the video when i get home to see if that changes my mind (work firewalls). But I suspect that the quote in question is from like pick 180+ (or 160 ) which kinda supports my point that we were lucky that other QB desperate teams didnt reach for him sooner or didnt take him between 180-199.
Basically at 199 BB felt the gamble was worth it, and not sooner.
I will go to my grave believing we were Very Lucky with a bit of great talent assessment.
Basically he picks you where he believes you should go. After these qoutes and expressions did he trade up to snag this falling gem?
This is the same guy who year in year out takes guys way "out of slot" because he like them and sees things others dont.
It simply doesnt make sense that he gambled that Martin (Pit 163), Bulger (NO 168) and Wynn (Cle 183) gets picked before a guy he REALLY likes.
(Ok betting against Cleveland usually does make sense
)Smart that he DID take him around that 200 mark as 4 of the next 14 picks were QBs. (202,205,212, 214).
I will try to find the video when i get home to see if that changes my mind (work firewalls). But I suspect that the quote in question is from like pick 180+ (or 160 ) which kinda supports my point that we were lucky that other QB desperate teams didnt reach for him sooner or didnt take him between 180-199.
Basically at 199 BB felt the gamble was worth it, and not sooner.
I will go to my grave believing we were Very Lucky with a bit of great talent assessment.
Oh, I agree—I don’t mean to overstate the case at all.We can disagree Rev. But there is no Way I can buy that BB was that good of poker player to let a guy who he thought could be an NFL Starter Fall and Fall and Fall. He knows how valuable that is and He has NEVER done that again and driven many of us insane because of it.
Basically he picks you where he believes you should go. After these qoutes and expressions did he trade up to snag this falling gem?
This is the same guy who year in year out takes guys way "out of slot" because he like them and sees things others dont.
It simply doesnt make sense that he gambled that Martin (Pit 163), Bulger (NO 168) and Wynn (Cle 183) gets picked before a guy he REALLY likes.
(Ok betting against Cleveland usually does make sense
Smart that he DID take him around that 200 mark as 4 of the next 14 picks were QBs. (202,205,212, 214).
I will try to find the video when i get home to see if that changes my mind (work firewalls). But I suspect that the quote in question is from like pick 180+ (or 160 ) which kinda supports my point that we were lucky that other QB desperate teams didnt reach for him sooner or didnt take him between 180-199.
Basically at 199 BB felt the gamble was worth it, and not sooner.
I will go to my grave believing we were Very Lucky with a bit of great talent assessment.
But once BB got ahold of him, there is reason to believe he quickly came to understand he had something special, even if it is impossible he could have understood what—
I mean, how could he? There’s never been a Tom Brady before.
Do you have a source for this? The statistical record seems to bear out the opposite. Of the top 10 teams by W/L since 2001, only Atlanta (which is 10th) has a worse record in division than outside. The Colts, Packers, and Seahawks all have far better records in divisional games than outside, and the Steelers have a significantly better record in divisional games. The Patriots, Eagles, Broncos, Ravens, and Saints are all very close inside and out.
Ugh, I thought you guys would have seen it.
I have it somewhere in my hard drive... please send for Ariadne...
Good lord this an atrocious post.Which may have said more about Micheal Bishop then Tom Brady.
Plus Bledsoe had played 122 of the previous 128 regular season games. (missed 2 in 98, 1 in 95 and 3 his rookie year).
I am not saying they didnt see promise in Brady. Its the level of that promise that I question. I have to assume that at 199, with Bishop and Bledsoe (and a tail end of his career Friesz) that they had to be thinking "He could become an adequate backup to Drew, And we need a Backup".
I think timing is also important. Drafting him 199 was very lucky. After having him in house for a few months they may have realized what a real steal they had. But no way they knew he was starter material and a possible usurper to (at the time "Future HOFer") Bledsoe on Draft night and yet wait till 199 to secure him.
Even if you buy the idea that Belicheck was unhappy with Bledsoe and looking to move on, if he felt Brady was that guy he drafts him earlier then 199. Remember 199 wasn't their only Pick around there. They had 127,141,161 and 187 as well.
If your BB and you think "This guy could replace Bledsoe" he has proven time and time again that he takes him at 127 (or whatever) and lets all the pundits sit there mouth open and aghast.
They also had 201 which they used on David Nugent (DE). In Between were the Saints who picked Sherrod Gideon (wr, Never played). The Saints had also picked a QB (Bulger) at 168 so the odds of doubling up for Brady at 200 Was very low especially when they also had the 195 pick bypassed him again and took a DB (Mike Hawthorn).
So actually it was terrible use of resources by Belicheck. He should have waited and taken him 201. Imagine how pissed off and "out to prove everyone wrong" he would have been then.
So your point is they didn’t know Brady would be a HOFer and that taking him at 199 was terrible because it could have been 201?
Yikes.
There's one place they're succeeded where they haven't had great luck and that's in acquiring hall of fame/first team pro bowl level players. Brady and Gronk obviously, Vinatieri maybe although I'm not sure a kicker is as important, and some short terms who were here for a spell late in their careers (like Moss and Seau) but who else makes the hall from what is now a 17 year run? There are a few terrific players who are notch below in talent (Mankins, Wilfork, DMC, Seymour, Light) but for a team that was great for a long period of time there weren't a lot of superlative individual talents.
Drafting is part luck and part skill obviously but usually when you see teams that have long periods of success you see that they've built around three or four or even more hall of famers who were on the teams for long periods of times (I'm thinking of Lott/Rice/Montana/Haley, Kelly/Reed/Thomas/B.Smith, Aikman/Irvin/Smith/Larry Allen, the entire 1970s Steelers, and maybe even the Ravens with Ogden/Lewis/Reed/maybe Suggs).
Drafting two hall of famers in 17 years is nothing to sneeze at but winning like the Pats have won without having better luck with top end talent in the draft is rare.
Drafting is part luck and part skill obviously but usually when you see teams that have long periods of success you see that they've built around three or four or even more hall of famers who were on the teams for long periods of times (I'm thinking of Lott/Rice/Montana/Haley, Kelly/Reed/Thomas/B.Smith, Aikman/Irvin/Smith/Larry Allen, the entire 1970s Steelers, and maybe even the Ravens with Ogden/Lewis/Reed/maybe Suggs).
Drafting two hall of famers in 17 years is nothing to sneeze at but winning like the Pats have won without having better luck with top end talent in the draft is rare.
Kind of hard when you are always drafting at the end of the first round.
Also, their entire dynasty (outside of BB/TB12) has been built around the mid-level players, the guys who specifically aren't top tier talent but play the system well and Do Their Job
Not at all.
Jezus Check your Sarcasm detector.
No he didnt know Brady would be a HOFer. He was probably unsure (on Draft night) that he would be a Average Starter. They probably had Hope he could be a backup if need be.
Hence they took him 199. Nothing indicated to them he could be special. If there had been he would have been picked earlier by BB (or someone else).
We were lucky (the point of this thread) they did take him, and that he and his work ethic was anything but average.
The 199/201 thing was a humorous throwaway line that i noticed while researching the post.
So you admit to not knowing if B.B. secretly knew someone was going to draft Brady at 200, eh?
Checkmate.
This could only ever occur in a Moriarty-master criminal style video released after his death.Until I see the Video of BB laughing maniacally and saying " All part of my Plan to Draft the GOAT" then I admit nothing!
Assuming he’s actually mortal.
Getting back on topic, I seem to recall Alan Branch giving credit to the Patriots coaching staff for spending a lot of time doing fumble recovery drills similar to the Hightower strip sack play in the Super Bowl. Given Belichick's unusually high attention to detail in preparation for various scenarios, it wouldn't shock me if this could account for some of the fumble recovery "luck", at least on the defensive side of the ball.
Most of those teams were pre-cap, and I think you can argue the exceptions prove the rule - the Cowboys petered out post-cap, and the Ravens have struggled to put together offenses to match their Ds, in part because of cap issues. Could you keep Rice / Lott / Montana / Haley all under the cap nowadays? Probably not without seriously compromising the rest of the roster.
I think part of the Patriots strategy has been to target and build around these "notch below" guys, in part because they can sign them long-term at lower cost. They've basically always had interior defensive linemen who were first-round picks (Seymour, Warren, Wilfork, Brown) but Chandler Jones is the only top-50 pick they've used on a pure edge guy, and they traded him before he got expensive. They've used a lot of draft capital on less glamorous positions like tight end, safety, and off-ball linebacker.
It is amazing that few Pats from this run outside of Brady get mentioned as viable candidates for the Hall. Moss should get in or they should close the place, but who knows . I'd like to think Vinateri and Law get in, but they are admittedly longer shots. Gronk's got a good case for tight end, but may need to pitch in one more season.
Anyway, whenever I see the bolded listed in the same sentence, I realize it's time to revive the most famous draft day prediction quote of all time:
Sorry, but it never, ever gets old.
Couple of other lucky moments from the Steelers AFCG. Oh, sorry, not that one. Oh, yeah right, not that one either. 2001:
The spot (hash mark)on the repunt that led to Brown's return touchdown was screwed up, leading to the Steelers taking wrong lanes and opening up the return.
Bledsoe almost threw a horrific pick to a defensive lineman, similar to the one that cost them in the 97 regular season loss against the Steelers. Mercifully, this one was dropped.
Also, god bless the time keeper who bled the last second off the clock after Adam's fg in XXXVI.
The spot (hash mark)on the repunt that led to Brown's return touchdown was screwed up, leading to the Steelers taking wrong lanes and opening up the return.
Bledsoe almost threw a horrific pick to a defensive lineman, similar to the one that cost them in the 97 regular season loss against the Steelers. Mercifully, this one was dropped.
Also, god bless the time keeper who bled the last second off the clock after Adam's fg in XXXVI.
I kicked in a closet door in my apartment over that. I was an angry young man, in retrospect.
Last edited:
And technically the Pats are going for it every year, or at least end up in the AFCCGWell, technically, it is always now...
[
Not that I'm still bitter ten years out.
Agreed on all of this. If the Pats had been the Colts and spend more resources on top young talent at skill positions you could see them having more pro bowlers or even hall of famers but fewer wins.
Superbowl victories seem to help players make the hall of fame--and the timing of the Pats SB victories doesn't really track the careers of a lot of the Pats near great players. If the Superbowls wins were closer together- particularly if you had the 19-0 season--there are a bunch of players you could imagine getting a "Stallworth/Swann" special and making the hall for having multiple rings without ever having been a perennial all pro (I'm thinking of players like Mankins (no rings), Welker, (no rings), Wilfork (two but at the beginning and the end of his career when he wasn't as much of a factor) or even Seymour (three rings) and Light (three rings)). Add a 19-0 seasons and a lot of those guys make it.
Not that I'm still bitter ten years out.
As that play is seared into my brain, unfortunately it was a legal lateral. [/annoyed Steelers fan]
And the guy that authored that quote is the one making the argument for the Pats players in the HOF room.
Though with Seymour (if he ever gets to the region writer presents case) maybe will belong to the Raiders guy as that was where he last played. Not sure how that works
...and your smug, aloof mockery of the thread rather than participation in it was the third lock of the century.
Well that's the thing, they didn't just have Bledsoe and Bishop, they also had Friesz. It's absolutely unheard-of for a team to carry 4 QBs on their roster, especially the entire year. They're playing one body down for every other position, it just doesn't make sense. They could have cut him and put him on the practice squad, but Belichick just didn't want even the possibility of losing him. That's not how you think about "maybe could become a backup one day". You don't go that far against the conventional wisdom, and cost yourself not just 1 more but 2 more roster spots than usual, if you haven't developed a strong belief about Brady's potential future as a starter.
And of course, Brady fell to them because Dick Rehbein was the only guy who believed in his potential (and Belichick the only GM who would listen to such an opinion about a guy who didn't look the part). It's absolutely a case of "luck is the residue of design". Not every late-round pick they make pans out, but they're taking them seriously and, importantly, they're damn sure not following conventional wisdom when they make them.
Likewise a FG make or miss. That's a matter of execution by the other team's players. If there were a lot of wind that day, and a sudden gust (or lack thereof) gave the Pats or their opponents an unexpected make or miss, I might call that luck. Where a bouncing ball lands or rolls is luck. Oakland players falling down in the snow on those last 2 drives in the Snow Bowl trying to cover Redmond and Brown, sure. Injury luck, absolutely. But on a FG try? It's about as contained a scientific experiment as can happen on a sports field - the player lines up and he makes or misses.
Agreed Instaface.
But the point is you might would be lucky to find a Penny. But you would besmart to pickup the penny, pocket it. Invest time in researching it and discover its the rarest Penny ever and is worth Millions.
THE NIGHT OF THE DRAFT I am convinced BB and company had no idea that Brady could be much more then a Backup or even a Camp body. They had plenty of QBs and had made plenty of depth picks before him. They took a flyer and luckily that flyer payed off as never imagined.
By the time the Roster cutdown came along they realized they might actually have something and went to extreme lengths to keep him. Some time after that they probably realized that he WAS something. After that Bledsoe went down and they realized he was something special.
To think that BB and Co thought that they were drafting Bledsoes replacement is silly to me. The fact they did is entirely what you said "Luck is residue of design" but it was still luck.
But the point is you might would be lucky to find a Penny. But you would besmart to pickup the penny, pocket it. Invest time in researching it and discover its the rarest Penny ever and is worth Millions.
THE NIGHT OF THE DRAFT I am convinced BB and company had no idea that Brady could be much more then a Backup or even a Camp body. They had plenty of QBs and had made plenty of depth picks before him. They took a flyer and luckily that flyer payed off as never imagined.
By the time the Roster cutdown came along they realized they might actually have something and went to extreme lengths to keep him. Some time after that they probably realized that he WAS something. After that Bledsoe went down and they realized he was something special.
To think that BB and Co thought that they were drafting Bledsoes replacement is silly to me. The fact they did is entirely what you said "Luck is residue of design" but it was still luck.
"Absolutely unheard-of" is definitely too strong - the Jets carried four QBs last year, for instance, and it was probably more common in the old CBA when you had the emergency QB and just about everybody carried three. But the thrust of your point is right - it was an unusual move for the Patriots, who had an established starter in his prime.
I found this video:
A couple quotes from Scott Pioli are illustrative:
"Part of the reason he lasted for us as long as he did was we had fewer than 40 players on our roster and we were $10.5 MM over the cap. One of the positions that we did have filled was quarterback. So even though Tom's name was higher up on our draft board, we kept on passing his name, until we got to a point where he was so much higher than so many of the other players, we couldn't pass him up any longer."
"If we were smart, we would have drafted him a lot sooner than 199th overall."
I agree that it showed a little something that they kept four QBs in 2000, but I think I've heard Belichick say, or heard him quoted as saying, that they didn't feel they had 53 (or whatever the number was then) legit NFL PLAYERS to fill the team roster. So that helped, too.
Edit: clarity
Edit: clarity
Last edited:
Back when I was a young man in my 20s, around when Tom Brady was in high school, I remember reading about how Johnny Unitas went undrafted until the 9th round. I thought at the time: with scouting and drafting so sophisticated these days, something like that could NEVER happen again with a QB of that caliber.
I was wrong.
EDIT with Unitas info. Eerily similar to Brady, with one big difference (at least for the Steelers):
After his collegiate career, the Pittsburgh Steelers of the NFL drafted Unitas in the ninth round. However, Unitas was released before the season began as the odd man out among four quarterbacks trying to fill three spots. Steelers Head Coach Walt Kiesling had made up his mind about Unitas; he thought he was not smart enough to quarterback an NFL team, and Unitas was not given any snaps in practice with the Steelers.
I was wrong.
EDIT with Unitas info. Eerily similar to Brady, with one big difference (at least for the Steelers):
After his collegiate career, the Pittsburgh Steelers of the NFL drafted Unitas in the ninth round. However, Unitas was released before the season began as the odd man out among four quarterbacks trying to fill three spots. Steelers Head Coach Walt Kiesling had made up his mind about Unitas; he thought he was not smart enough to quarterback an NFL team, and Unitas was not given any snaps in practice with the Steelers.
I never heard of Kiesling, and didn’t know the Steelers and Eagles merged during the war because of loss of players to service, becoming the “Steagles”. I did know that the Steelers released Unitas. Imagine if someone said something today like: "Unitas is too dumb. He can't remember plays."