Heyman: Ellsbury to sign seven-year deal with Yankees

[Reverend]

If  Ells' option vests he gets 8/$169-- and reportedly   7/170 is the offer on the table for Cano.
 
Yet over their last five full seasons Cano has an OPS of .905 and Ells .775. Cano over 25 HR every season--Ells over 9 HR once.
 
Cano may be looking a little sideways at his new agent right about now.

 
Does it even ever occur to you to link to the stuff that you reference?
 
I've held off posting this three times today. Seriously. The only rule here is don't suck. It's great that you share information that you read some place and can identify stuff that would be interest to others, but, hook the rest of us up, yeah? Post a link to your information and stuff.

 

[Bone Chips]

Does it even ever occur to you to link to the stuff that you reference?
 
I've held off posting this three times today. Seriously. The only rule here is don't suck. It's great that you share information that you read some place and can identify stuff that would be interest to others, but, hook the rest of us up, yeah? Post a link to your information and stuff.

I heard it twice today, once on ESPN and the second time during Francesa's interview with a Yankee beat writer from the Daily News (the name escapes me). I also Googled it and pulled this up in about 2 seconds. http://www.nj.com/yankees/index.ssf/2013/12/seattle_in_on_cano.html

 

[Plympton91]

DH3 has spoken ! Lower ticket prices ! Ths most recent championship sticks in your craw, doesn't it ?

 
The most recent championship was fantastic.  What's that got to do with 2014?  Did they make another rule change so that like in Amazing Race if you win the previous stage you get a head start on the next stage?
 
Last year ended with a celebration on November 2.  Now it's a new year.  New games to win.  Other teams have made significant improvements.  When will the Red Sox do so?

 

[Stitch01]

 
The most recent championship was fantastic.  What's that got to do with 2014?  Did they make another rule change so that like in Amazing Race if you win the previous stage you get a head start on the next stage?
 
Last year ended with a celebration on November 2.  Now it's a new year.  New games to win.  Other teams have made significant improvements.  When will the Red Sox do so?

No game tomorrow night AFAIK, and no December '13 championship to win.  Lets evaluate the offseason when its actually over.  No prize for being the fastest team to improve.
 
Also, its very possible to have a worse team next year and still have this offseason have been a success.  There are different ways to build a team, but trying to compete with the Yankees by copying their this year or bust, YOLO strategy despite having significantly fewer resources strikes me as a particularly poor approach.

 
They did just raise ticket prices by 5%; typically you get a better product when the price goes up, not a worse one.
 

 
This isnt really true either.  Its not like the Red Sox are competing in a free market and ticket prices are only changed once a year.  The fanbase certainly has a better perception of what '14 will look like than what they thought '13 would look like.
 

 

[JimBoSox9]

That's right.  You have to consider the entire Gestalt of the team's contracts.  You really can't give Ellsbury $20m per and not expect a whole lot of pushback and repercussions from the other players.  They seem to be looking for players who value winning a championship even though it might mean they leave a few bucks on the table in the interests of fielding a truly competitive team. 

 
There are many relevant variables to the Red Sox re-signing Ellsbury; I find it incredibly hard to believe that one of them was a concern that the clubhouse would shun a $20m/y player because of chemistryness.  IN THIS BUSINESS, the talent are businessmen too.  Your Gestalt is fantasyland.

 

[AbbyNoho]

 
If they've been planning for it, what steps are planned to offset the loss in 2014?  They did just raise ticket prices by 5%; typically you get a better product when the price goes up, not a worse one.

 
I doubt he'll have a better overall season, but would it shock anyone if Bradley Jr has a better-for-the-cost 2014 than Jacoby Ellsbury? And as far as flat production, you don't need to replace it 1-for-1 in the same position. There's plenty they can still do to potentially even improve upon last years team - the one that one a championship - and saving money in CF helps them do it in more creative ways. 
 
And I'm not sold on your premise that they're already much worse on paper. There is enough youthful upside that they might not even have a significant drop-off without making another move.
 
Besides, it's December 4th. There is a long time to go and a lot of moves to be made.
 
And I can't even begin to understand what ticket price re-arrangement has to do with anything, unless it's just something you want to bitch about. It certainly has nothing to do with Jacoby Ellsbury. 

 

[NWsoxophile]

Alex Castellanos and Burke Badenhop.....plus Alex Hassan waiting in the wings.....I'd say 5% isn't enough!

I hope you're attempting sarcasm. If not, you might try calming down. It's December 4. They've got plenty of time to work the roster.

 

[HurstSoGood]

I'm curious to know if there is some secret formula for calculating salary offers/expectations based on the specific player ages of which said contract encompasses. The Sox philosophy on signing players has certainly turned since the Punto deal and their subsequent approach to recent off-season moves. Any team offering premium contracts for more than 5 years are almost flipping a coin on whether or not they will get a solid return on investment.  
 
On one hand (as much as we talk about what Player "A" will be like in years 5-7, for example), there may also be a bean-counter in a Front Office who is pointing out the fact that the annual dollar value of years 5-7 can easily favor the club, since the trend for star player payments has been relatively bullish (plus normal inflation and new big revenue opportunities for the teams themselves). IOW, where will Jacoby's salary rank in 2019? Still Top 10? 20? 50? 
 
On the other hand, how many contractual disasters will it take before teams stop handing out premium money AND premium years to guys that are (arguably) not even the best at their position, due for a decline, 'roiding, mentally less-stable and/or prone to injury? The steroid era totally screwed projections of what great players could do in their mid to late 30's.
 
                             Average annual value (Contract Years) Contract oWAR/Contract dWAR/Contract Pitcher WAR
The highest-paid players in baseball history, by average annual value:      
1. Roger Clemens, $28,000,022 (2007)*      
2. Alex Rodriguez,  $27,500,000 (2008-17)*      
3. Justin Verlander, $25,714,286 (2013-19)     12.4 (1 yr)
4. Alex Rodriguez, $25,200,000 (2001-10)*      
5. Ryan Howard, $25,000,000 (2012-16) 0.3 -1.7   . .
6. Josh Hamilton, $25,000,000 (2013-17)  1.9 -1.2   . .
7. Felix Hernandez, $25,000,000 (2013-19)     5.2 (1 yr)
8. Zack Greinke, $24,500,000 (2013-18)     3.9 (1 yr)
9. CC Sabathia, $24,400,000 (2012-16)      3.8 (2 yrs)
10. Cliff Lee, $24,000,000 (2011-15)     11.8 (2 yrs) . . .
11. Albert Pujols, $24,000,000 (2012-21) 5.4 -0.8   . . .
12. Cole Hamels, $24,000,000 (2013-18)     4.6 (1 yr)
13. Prince Fielder, $23,777,778 (2012-20) 8.3 -3.8  
14. CC Sabathia, $23,000,000 (2009-15)     18.3 (3 yrs) . . .
15. Joe Mauer, $23,000,000 (2011-18)  11.2 0.2  
16. Johan Santana, $22,916,667 (2008-13)     15.2  (6 yrs)
17. Manny Ramirez, $22,500,000 (2009-10) 4.9 -2.8   . . .
18. Mark Teixeira, $22,500,000 (2009-16)  13.4 -0.8   . . .
19. Joey Votto, $22,500,000 (2014-23)      
20. Adrian Gonzalez, $22,000,000 (2012-18)  3.1 0.2  
21. Roger Clemens, $22,000,022 (2006)*      
22. Matt Cain, $21,250,000 (2012-17)       
23. Ryan Braun, $21,000,000 (2016-20)*      
24. Carl Crawford, $20,285,714 (2011-17)      
25. Tim Lincecum, $20,250,000 (2012-13)      
 
Even if you take out the guys accused of PED's, this is one UGLY list of overpays. And they have skewed the whole damn scale. Based on this insanity, and what is likely going to happen (contractually) in MLB over the next few years, the Yankees paying a non-All Star $21M per sounds just about horribly right.   
 
 
Edit: Sorry about the excel chart fail...It basically was supposed to include oWAR and dWAR for the batters and pitchers WAR for the pitchers, over the course of their respective (sometimes ongoing) player contracts.

 

[Sampo Gida]

I never for a moment entertained the notion that the Red Sox would actually resign Ellsbury (although I hoped he would), not with JBJ waiting in the wings and after winning a World Series,  which takes some pressure off of having to win next year.  I am sure they made an offer just short of being good enough to be accepted to drive his price up or show the fan base they tried to sign him and make him the bad guy for leaving.
 
I am a bit surprised Ellsbury got as much as he did given his injury history, lack of power in 2013 and in the aftermath of bad contracts like Crawford, but I guess that's why players love Boras.   Be interesting to see if he passes his physical.
 
How this deal plays out for the Yankees, assuming it gets done,  we simply don't know. Can he stay healthy? Will his power return?  How will he age?  The answers to these questions will determine if it is a good deal or an albatross.

 

[Drek717]

There are two ways this signing is less painful than it might have been. 1) The Red Sox just won the World Series and 2)Jacoby Ellsbury helped them do it. If a small-market team could only win next year, it would be very satisfying, filling in the time the Sox need to get their youngsters up to speed.

What time getting up to speed?
 
Bogaerts didn't look over his head in the playoffs against elite pitching.  He's a pretty good bet to out-hit Drew in 2014 and likely won't feature nearly the  home/road or pitcher handedness splits.
 
Middlebrooks was a significantly better player the second half than the first.  If he falls well short of his 2012 performance and is instead a .750 OPS guy with solid 3B defense he would represent a massive upgrade over the 2013 club's 3B defense.
 
Bradley by all accounts is more than ready to take Ellsbury's place defensively, which comprised a minimum of 1/3rd of Ells' entire value in his best seasons, frequently being the driving factor for his WAR.  If Bradley can simply be league average offensively he would greatly mitigate the loss of 2013 Ellsbury, when there's a good chance that 2013 Ellsbury wasn't coming back even if the Sox had outbid the Yankees.  He had a BABIP of .341 last year, well above his career average.  Even in 2011 his BABIP was only .336, and now he's entering an age when even the best base stealers began to see major drops in SBs per year.  If Ellsbury is a .275/.330/.400 hitter with 20-30 SBs instead of 50 he's not exactly setting the bar too high for Bradley to clear.
 
Meanwhile the 2014 Sox also get to look forward to some nice potential SP upgrades in a full season of Jake Peavy over Ryan Dempster, the possibility that Doubront actually shows up to camp in shape this time, that the best pitcher on the staff (Buch) actually pitches more than 20 games, and that Lester is good Lester for a full season again after figuring it out post-ASB and maintaining it through the playoffs.
 
Also, while Koji likely won't be the untouchable iron man he was in 2013 he'll likely still be an elite reliever and the club now has the off-season to buy additional arms for a pen that was shaky beyond him and Tazawa last year, while the farm is on the verge of sending up a plethora of good young depth to help out.  The Red Sox might actually be a significantly upgraded pitching club without even making a move.
 
Regression was going to happen to some players.  I'd be surprised if Victorino is as good in 2014 as he was in 2013 for example.  But there are ample backup plans under organizational control if those regressions are too harsh for the ML club to endure.  Meanwhile some guys have the potential to bounce upward.
 
If the Red Sox stand pat as of today they would still be a solidly competitive team with some question marks but a lot of depth to shore up those question marks, and I don't think any of us expect them to stand pat the entire rest of the winter as of December 4th.
 
Pitching wins.  Pitching depth carries you through the regular season, elite pitching carries you in the playoffs.  Boston has more than it's fair share of both.  No one else in the division can say the same.

 

[lambeau]

http://nypost.com/2013/12/03/yanks-ellsbury-deal-designed-to-force-canos-hand-which-could-backfire/
 
Source on Cano negotiations confirmed by Yankee beat-reporter Sweeny Murti on WFAN today who emphasized Cashman/Jay Z "staring contest" with MFY standing firm.
 
I apologize for previous lack of sourcing.

 

[MartyBarrettMVP]

Good to know the MFY's were using heard numbers before they gave millions to Jacoby:
 

 
 
#yankees baseball people liked ellsbury & choo almost equally. in end, jacoby chosen due to "gamer" "toughness" & boston.

 
per Heyman
 
https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/408416170438451201

 

[Plympton91]

 
 
Meanwhile the 2014 Sox also get to look forward to some nice potential SP upgrades in a full season of Jake Peavy over Ryan Dempster,
 

Pitching wins.  Pitching depth carries you through the regular season, elite pitching carries you in the playoffs.  Boston has more than it's fair share of both.  No one else in the division can say the same.

 
Just the two biggest examples of the pollyannish attitude here:
 
1. How many times in the past 5 years has Jake Peavy pitched a full season?
 
2. Tampa Bay begs to differ.  They haven't traded Price yet, aren't certain to do so, and will get really good players back if they do.  Also, Cobb probably won't be beaned by line drive again, and they will have Myers in the lineup for a whole season. 

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

 
Just the two biggest examples of the pollyannish attitude here:
 
1. How many times in the past 5 years has Jake Peavy pitched a full season?
 
2. Tampa Bay begs to differ.  They haven't traded Price yet, aren't certain to do so, and will get really good players back if they do.  Also, Cobb probably won't be beaned by line drive again, and they will have Myers in the lineup for a whole season. 

Good thing the season doesnt start tomorrow then.

You got exactly this upset the last time a Sox CFer got signed to aFA contract by the Yankees, and it was only another season after that happened that the Sox were champs again. Probably best to see how the rest of the offseason shakes out before launching full drama panic mode.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Good to know the MFY's were using heard numbers before they gave millions to Jacoby:
 
 
per Heyman
 
https://twitter.com/JonHeymanCBS/status/408416170438451201

 
So Ellsbury's "toughness" is worth, I'm guessing, 60-80 million dollars more than what they would have paid for Choo? Is this a real thing?

 

[MentalDisabldLst]

 
The most recent championship was fantastic.  What's that got to do with 2014?  Did they make another rule change so that like in Amazing Race if you win the previous stage you get a head start on the next stage?
 
Last year ended with a celebration on November 2.  Now it's a new year.  New games to win.  Other teams have made significant improvements.  When will the Red Sox do so?

 
Yeah, a while back I tried to charge my consulting clients a much higher hourly rate, based on how much more obviously competent I was than what my previous experience suggested.  They told me they paid for past results, not future expectations.  What gives?  It's like no one takes an economics class anymore!
 
The Sox right now are a 4-star restaurant who, unbeknownst to many of their clientele, just lost a star sous chef who ran the kitchen most nights.  The executive chef's big name is still on the front door, the food is still pretty damn tasty, but maybe it doesn't have the same pizzazz or originality it used to - and goddammit, they just got a Michelin star last year.  But that restaurant isn't just going to unilaterally cut their prices because they feel they owe it to their customers because, going forward, the food might (or might not!) be quite as good.  As long as the patrons keep streaming in and you need a reservation to get a table, things will go just fine there.  They're not taking that Michelin star away, and frankly, management thinks in the long run they'll be just fine and they'll find another couple chefs who will have things humming real soon.  Why on earth would they cut prices?  That's just not a realistic thing to expect of any business in their situation - whether they're soulless profit-maximizers or not.

 

[Drek717]

 
Just the two biggest examples of the pollyannish attitude here:
 
1. How many times in the past 5 years has Jake Peavy pitched a full season?
 
2. Tampa Bay begs to differ.  They haven't traded Price yet, aren't certain to do so, and will get really good players back if they do.  Also, Cobb probably won't be beaned by line drive again, and they will have Myers in the lineup for a whole season. 

1. Depends what you constitute a "full season".  He doesn't need to make 32 starts to be an upgrade.  If he gives ~150 IPs (like he did last year) he'd be a pretty nice upgrade over Dempster.  The Red Sox depth allows them to focus on quality per start, not blind durability.  If they were worried about who could give them 200 filler innings they'd probably be calling up Bronson Arroyo and talking about a reunion.
 
2. Wil Myers is going to pitch in 2014?  Interesting.  Also, they lack the same organizational pitching depth of the Red Sox.  They have Colome (coming back from a significant shoulder injury that landed him on the 60 day DL to end last season) and Odorizzi as potential 2014 call ups and that's about it.  Maybe they let Enny Romero skip most of AAA.  The Rays have been winning too much to have all those nice top 10 picks juicing their farm system and it shows.  They're looking to fleece a team for Price because of exactly this.  When the Sox front line starters are healthy they're every bit a match for Tampa Bay and the organizational depth outpaces them quite well.
 
Tampa Bay massively outperformed their projected win totals as well last season.  Unless you believe that Joe Maddon is just massively better than every other manager in baseball or that Tampa Bay has somehow harnessed "luck" into something they can control they're looking at a bigger potential for regression to the norm than the Red Sox are.

 

[CaskNFappin]

Yankees fan on Barstool Sports:

"Money is just not an issue, because if you look at the history of our contracts, they are just like lies to your girlfriend get caught in one just add a bigger one to cover it up."

Perfect.

 

[Harry Hooper]

Abraham stated it well in his piece:
 

Ellsbury will be a solid player for the Yankees but he's no superstar. He made the All-Star team once in his career and is a leadoff hitter who doesn't walk enough. Scott Boras somehow got Ellsbury a contract befitting a No. 3 hitter and MVP candidate. That Boras let a client of his sign so early in the process was a sign of how ridiculous the offer was.
 

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Not really, $153 million, divided by 7 is $21,857,142 and change.

 

No, $153-$100 is still $53, according to my math.  Yes, annually it's close.  But those last two guaranteed years kind of make a difference.

 

[patinorange]

I enjoyed watching him play and I think the Sox will have difficulty replacing him at the top of the order. I did have a negative reaction at the gut level when I heard it was the Yanks, but that was soon replaced with the "what the hell are the Yankees doing" reaction. They just filled a need they don't have and paid a ton to do it.
 
He seemed to be a good kid who avoided the limelight and played hard every day. He gets a standing O  from me on that first at bat. Then, he is treated like a Yankee.
 
I have a bad feeling about Victorino in center field, so I hope Jackie is ready for his close up.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

 
No, $153-$100 is still $53, according to my math.  Yes, annually it's close.  But those last two guaranteed years kind of make a difference.

So he could be a FA in 5 years. Instead of 2/53 he is looking at 3/42? In the best case scenerio he isn't coming close to 2/53, more like 4/53.

The Yankees offer blew away the Sox offer, looking at it anually is stupid.

 

[CaptainLaddie]

Why anyone takes DH3 seriously is beyond me.  He's trolling.  He's not even trying to hide it.

 

[Wake's knuckle]

I can't help but wonder why the Yankees are playing hardball like this on Cano. He's clearly a superior player than Ellsbury, more productive and less injury prone. Maybe they know something we don't?

 

[Pumpsie]

 
There are many relevant variables to the Red Sox re-signing Ellsbury; I find it incredibly hard to believe that one of them was a concern that the clubhouse would shun a $20m/y player because of chemistryness.  IN THIS BUSINESS, the talent are businessmen too.  Your Gestalt is fantasyland.

You miss my point.  It's not that the players would "shun" the guy with the big contract.  It's that, as businessmen, they (and their agents) would all be using THAT contract as a benchmark to angle for bigger contracts themselves.  And THAT would have a reverberating effect on the management's ability to keep their overall payroll where they'd prefer it to be.  That contract would tend to pull the other contracts upwards as players they'd like to keep approach free agency.  You have to think about all the contracts on the team in relation to each other, not as totally separate phenomena.

 

[judyb]

Why anyone takes DH3 seriously is beyond me.  He's trolling.  He's not even trying to hide it.

Wouldn't it set a bad example for the lurkers to just leave stuff like that lying around with no response?

 

[Cowboys Idiots N Beards]

No, $153-$100 is still $53, according to my math.  Yes, annually it's close.  But those last two guaranteed years kind of make a difference.

But other than virtually the same anually, if he had a 5 year deal, which is much more realistic for most players, he'd get more those 2 years with a new contract.

Remember when A-Roid opted out because he wanted more? You gotta stick to what you agree to, which will suck by then due to inflation and if he's more valuable at that point.

 

[Joshv02]

Ellsbury should have no effect on if NY goes after Tanaka, whose AAV will be comparable to someone like Feldman. The posting rules, of course, should, but not Ellsbury.

 

[Van Everyman]

I can't help but wonder why the Yankees are playing hardball like this on Cano. He's clearly a superior player than Ellsbury, more productive and less injury prone. Maybe they know something we don't?

To give the impression that financial discipline is important to them? I have no idea either.

 

[Granite Sox]

I can't help but wonder why the Yankees are playing hardball like this on Cano. He's clearly a superior player than Ellsbury, more productive and less injury prone. Maybe they know something we don't?

 
Because Cano has been in NYC for a while and the Yankees can communicate that he doesn't put butts in seats and isn't worth the $$ he is asking.  He's old news, a vested True Yankee™.  Ells is the new, shiny 153 billion penny (along with McCann) that can be positioned as the "re-load" for the team.  It's more a marketing argument (which Jay-Z lured Cano into his web by promising to re-brand him) than a baseball argument.  Cashman is trying to play it both ways.
 
And Boras is in the background with a maniacal laugh, knowing that he threw a wrench into the virtual budget and that he and Cashman are treating Mr. Empire State of Mind like catnip.
 
Meow!

 

[yecul]

Why anyone takes DH3 seriously is beyond me.  He's trolling.  He's not even trying to hide it.

Actually I think it's just fanboyism under the guise of analysis. He's upset a guy he likes is gone. Laundry only takes you so far.

The departure of ellsbury always struck me as a certainty. By all accounts Boston had strong competitive numbers but the Yankee offer was not going to be topped.

Boston is in good standing this headband going forward. They are off a hugely successful championship run founded on strong player evaluation and sticking to their plan.

They could have thrown more money at ellsbury to make it happen. They could have retained salty or at least given him a qo. But they didn't. Havent they earned at least a tiny bit of rope here?

 

[lambeau]

According to Joel Sherman on twitter, Ellsbury deal is 7/148 with a club option for year 8 at 21 mill or a 5 mill buyout making $153 guaranteed.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

But other than virtually the same anually, if he had a 5 year deal, which is much more realistic for most players, he'd get more those 2 years with a new contract.

 

 
That's assuming he doesn't start to suck in the next five years (whether due to skill decline or injuries).  Ironically, if he really believed in himself, he'd the shorter deal because it would could set him up for a second contract at market-rate (hopefully as revenues grow so would the market price).  However, given his injury history, I imagine it's hard to give up the guaranteed money; it also happens to maximize Boras's commission.

 

[DJnVa]

But other than virtually the same anually, if he had a 5 year deal, which is much more realistic for most players, he'd get more those 2 years with a new contract.
 

 
I don't think a 35 year old Ellsbury would be commanding a $20 million/year deal had he only signed for 5.

 

[FanSinceBoggs]

Quick, name the last long term FA deal that's worked out well for the Yankees. 

Giambi, Tex, A-Rod, CC (already declining), 


I think you'd probably need to go back to Mussina. 

 
 
They won the W.S. in 2009, though.  And so a Yankees fan might argue that that championship justified the excessive spending in free agency on A-Rod, Damon, Sabathia, Teix, and even A.J. Burnett, who had at least one pivotal postseason start in 2009.

 

[Average Reds]

But other than virtually the same anually, if he had a 5 year deal, which is much more realistic for most players, he'd get more those 2 years with a new contract.

Remember when A-Roid opted out because he wanted more? You gotta stick to what you agree to, which will suck by then due to inflation and if he's more valuable at that point.

 
Anyone making the argument that a guarantee of $53 million now is inferior to the possibility (contingent on health and performance) of more than $53 million later is identifying themselves as someone who should not be taken seriously.
 
The A-Rod contract is not even remotely relevant to the discussion.  It's apples to bitcoins.

 

[In my lifetime]

According to Joel Sherman on twitter, Ellsbury deal is 7/148 with a club option for year 8 at 21 mill or a 5 mill buyout making $153 guaranteed.

 
So in all likelihood, Ellsbury will get his 7/153 and then be cut loose.  Unless baseball contract inflation is excessive or Ellsbury defies age, it seems unlikely that Ellsbury will be worth the extra 16 million when he is 38.
Comparing 7/153 to the reported 5/100 makes it fairly clear why Ellsbury took the Yankees offer. 98% of the players would have done the same thing.  If a club owner/GM and were allowed to offer a contract to a player 5 years from today, figuring the chances of career ending injury, sucktitude, or just plain age related decline against inflation or age defying performance, what do you think you would offer Ellsbury today for years 6 and 7 of that contract?
 
From Dave Cameron's article: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-slow-decline-of-speedy-outfielders/
 
The 5 players closest in performance, style and position (taking the 5 best career performers over age 27-29) among his selection of speedy outfielders are the following with fWARPs at age 36 and 37 as listed:
Henderson--2.6, 2.2
Suzuki-------4.4, 0.1
Lofton-------4.0, 0.4
Raines------1.1, 1.1
Van Slyke---0, 0
 
So an average WARP of 1.6.
Assuming the quoted worth of 5.0M per 1.0 WARP and figuring 5% baseball inflation, let's assume WARP is worth 6.0M in 6 years.
 
That puts my quick guess at Ellsbury future worth at age 36 and 37 at 9.6 Million per year or just over 19M for those 2 years.  The number, at least to me seems reasonable. Yes he could be out of baseball or worthless, or he could defy time, but given the aversion to risk and discount on future performance, I doubt that any team would enter into an agreement today that paid Ellsbury more than the 19M for those 2 seasons (while not getting seasons 31-35). He will be getting almost 44M for the last 2 years of the contract, roughly 25M more then my very rough estimated worth.  That is a tremendous difference in the contract if you run the RS ---- a rough difference of not only of 9 Million for the 1st 5 years of the contract but an additional predicted overpay of 25M for the last 2 years.  So you could look at the Yankee contract as worth 34M or almost 5 Million per year more than the reported RS offer.
 
Of course, there are many ways to value contracts, performance, etc.  But the difference in the offers is clearly not ~2 M per year, but closer to the 5M per year (or almost 25%).  And yes, the Yankess may be able to take out insurance, but that is limited and is not free. On average, insurance companies make money --- so that only makes the contract more expensive while avoiding a complete loss.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
So in all likelihood, Ellsbury will get his 7/153 and then be cut loose.  Unless baseball contract inflation is excessive or Ellsbury defies age, it seems unlikely that Ellsbury will be worth the extra 16 million when he is 38.

 
A minor but perhaps not wholly insignificant quibble--Ellsbury only just turned 30, so this contract is for his age 30-36 seasons, not 31-37. The optional 8th year would be his age-37 year, though he would turn 38 before it ended.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

If Ellsbury signed 5/100, he'd be an FA at 35. He isn't going to do better than 2/53 or 3/69 on the open market at 35 unless salaries escalate at an insane rate.

Ellsbury isn't going to get $26.5m a year. He just got $22m at 30.

Edit: If he was offered 4/100 this may have merit. As is, even in the rosiest of outcomes, Ellsbury would be leaving 25-30 mil on the table in lifetime earnings.

 

[melonbag]

I can't help but wonder why the Yankees are playing hardball like this on Cano. He's clearly a superior player than Ellsbury, more productive and less injury prone. Maybe they know something we don't?

 
Are you sure it isn't the other way around?  From the beginning, the Yanks have had the highest offer out there for Cano.  Seattle offering an 8th year probably isn't enough for Jay Z to relocate his marketing plan to the PacNW, arguably keeping NY's offer as competitive as Seattle's.
 
Remember how some of us chuckled when ARod had the Yanks' FO bidding against themselves after his opt out?  No other team put a serious offer in front of ARod, yet he received a raise with added years and HR bonuses, without having Boras by his side.  And many of us will also laugh if the Yanks bid against themselves with Cano, with Seattle once again being typecast as bridesmaids.
 
Meanwhile, many accuse the Yanks for playing hardball, despite offering the largest contract ever to a second baseman.  In reality, playing hardball is what the Sox did with Ellsbury.

 

[absintheofmalaise]

Consolidated the two Ellsbury threads into one here. Start new threads please.

 

[asection8]

 
Love it. Jacoby is seriously the old school, scouts love him kinda guy. 

Also, I'm sick of people saying "Well, you can't blame the player, they went where the most money was." I call bullshit. What about loyalty and integrity? If I worked for Costco or something, and I made $60,000 a year as a department manager or whatever and I had good benefits and the culture was good yada yada yada and Sam's Club offered me 65 or 70 grand I wouldn't take it. There's some stuff you can't put a price on.

 
Bronson Arroyo always comes to mind when you talk about loyalty. He took less to stay with the Sox, and they used the cheap contract to make a trade. Ever since then, I never judge a player who goes for the money.

 

[BigPopi]

Now that Cano appears headed to Seattle do we get a Sup. 1st rounder from the yankees through Seattle?

 

[LeoCarrillo]

Now that Cano appears headed to Seattle do we get a Sup. 1st rounder from the yankees through Seattle?


This is the new saying "nucular."

Just kidding.

But no, common misconception. it's a new compensation system. There's a thread pinned on the main board that explains it.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

It's very remarkable that Cashman almost refuses to mention Ellsbury's name. 
 
Is there anyone who doesn't think this was a Steinbrenner move totally counter to Cashman's strategy?
 
If that's true, does it mean anything - or is it just business... 

 

[Sampo Gida]

It's very remarkable that Cashman almost refuses to mention Ellsbury's name. 
 
Is there anyone who doesn't think this was a Steinbrenner move totally counter to Cashman's strategy?
 
If that's true, does it mean anything - or is it just business... 

 
I am thinking Jacoby's physical may not have went well. 
 
The Yankees actually needed a RF'er not a CF'er, and if they anticipated Cano being gone they needed some HR power.  I don't know what the record for being stranded at 2B is but without Cano and with a less than vintage Jeter batting behind him,  Ellsbury may set the record.

 

[Kull]

Knowing that it wound up being "Ellsbury OR Cano", I'm a whole lot happier with this. That will be the stat comparison to watch going forward.

 

[Rough Carrigan]

One of the things I've been wondering about is whether playing half his games in yankee stadium III is going to be that good for Ellsbury.  The quick reaction is that it must be good for him because the guy's lefty, seldom hits the ball the opposite way and hits off his back foot trying to pull the ball. 
 
Maybe it won't be too much temptation at all.  But, damn, the guy never learned to use the opposite field much in Fenway, a park that he knew was going to punish his trying to pull the ball and reward his going the opposite way.  So what you might say.  And that might be right.  It might not matter.  But doesn't it seem like the temptation of yankee stadium III turned Teixeira into a guy who was trying to jack every single pitch into the air down the line in right, who became more and more one dimensional as a hitter?  What if Ells hit 16 homers next year, 12 in new york, but batted 25 points lower, and walked slightly less than this year.  Is that a big improvement?  Or is that just kind of smooshing your food around the plate.   You eat just as much but the nutritional value is coming from a little different place.   

 

[jon abbey]

Also you lose quite a few pulled doubles and triples in Yankee Stadium because the RF gets to them too quickly, no matter how fast you are. Of course that doesn't matter if you just steal second and third anyway. 

 

[Sampo Gida]

I think the big thing with Ellsbury's power drop off was that shoulder subluxation which likely damaged the labrum.  If he can recover the shoulder strength that HR power may come back.  That will be a huge dividend if it happens.   How the park affects him is anyones guess.  Looking at the hit charts the past 3 years I don't think it will help his HR totals much since when he hits them to RF they go along way.  He may lose a couple to LF (he had a few of those in 2011).   More of his LD to LF may fall in at YS3 though.
 
http://katron.org/projects/baseball/hit-location/
 
Most of his doubles and triples seem to go to LF, although he has some to RF, so how many he loses or gains due to park is impossible to say since the data is based on where the fielders picks up the ball and not where it lands. As JA says he could lose some DBL and 3B to RF, but may gain them in LF (although he could lose some Fenway wall ball doubles to LF).  Teams obviously have much better data so I am sure the Yankees feel pretty good about it.