Horse Racing/Triple Crown Thread

Titoschew

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 28, 2006
3,283
Chip Woolley's Trailer
Dan Murfman said:
Does he race again?
Long as Zayat pays the hefty insurance bills between
now and November. Probably 3-4 races left...I'd guess one of Haskell/pacific classic, maybe Travers/PA Derby, Jockey Club Gold Cup and then Breeders Cup Classic. Maybe someone writes him a race to stretch his legs like Suffolk did with Cigar in the 1990's.
 

SumnerH

Malt Liquor Picker
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
32,021
Alexandria, VA
SoxFanInCali said:
 
Man o' War had the greatest racing career of any thoroughbred, but no horse that has ever run would have beat Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont.
 
Sure, but just what I quoted from you leaves it as an open question which horse is the GOAT.  
 
Every time the conversation comes up, it's really close--ESPN picked Man O' War ahead of Secretariat, for instance, as have numerous race horsing magazines and popular sports source.  
 
I'm not saying that's necessarily true, just that "there is no debate" is absolutely wrong when it comes down those two horses.  I personally would probably would go with Secretariat as GOAT if I had to pick myself.  
 
But it's not a no brainer, and there is certainly a debate--Man 'o' War didn't win the Triple Crown, but it wasn't even a thing at the time and he didn't bother to enter the Derby because it wasn't a big deal.  He ran in iron shoes and under all other sorts of duress, and the only race he lost was because they didn't have modern starting gates and he was facing backwards when the gun went off--he spotted Upset a 4 length lead and still lost that one race by less than a half length.  And he clobbered Upset in all the other races they competed in.
 
But Secretariat's Belmont is absolutely unreal.  My mom was there that day and still talks about how that little horse just was playing a different game from the rest of the field.
 
But that's just one race.  Overall, it's certainly a matter of debate even if you are only talking about the American GOAT--Secretariat actually lost several races throughout his career, for one thing, whereas Man 'o' War only had the one very fluky loss (and if you extend it outside the US, I wouldn't be surprised if Phar Lap, Kincsem, Frankel, and several others have their proponents).
 
My objection isn't to Secretariat being someone's pick for GOAT, it's to the idea that he's a unanimous undisputed selection for GOAT.  And also it's kind of funny that both of the most obvious American candidates for GOAT have the nickname Big Red (which was claimed as the obvious undisputed title).
 

WayBackVazquez

white knight against high school nookie
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2006
8,294
Los Angeles
Papelbon's Poutine said:
Out of curiosity, how much could he possibly win in subsequent races? How does that compare to the risk of him having an injury that means he has to be put down and can't stud?
I know next got nothing about horse racing, so I'm asking in earnest.
The Breeders Cup Classic, which would be his last race, has a purse of 5 million, which is about equal to the thre triple crown races combined. Winning that would significantly increase his sale and stud prices, obviously. Horses can get hurt any time. Even during stud. The Zayats aren't (currently) hurting for cash, and this horse hasn't even run 10 races. If he loses his next three, he's still going to be worth a ton. You've got to let him take his run at greatness. At least as a three year old.
 

SoxFanInCali

has the rich, deep voice of a god
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jun 3, 2005
15,615
California. Duh.
SumnerH said:
 
Sure, but just what I quoted from you leaves it as an open question which horse is the GOAT.  
 
Every time the conversation comes up, it's really close--ESPN picked Man O' War ahead of Secretariat, for instance, as have numerous race horsing magazines and popular sports source.  
 
I'm not saying that's necessarily true, just that "there is no debate" is absolutely wrong when it comes down those two horses.  I personally would probably would go with Secretariat as GOAT if I had to pick myself.  
 
But it's not a no brainer, and there is certainly a debate--Man 'o' War didn't win the Triple Crown, but it wasn't even a thing at the time and he didn't bother to enter the Derby because it wasn't a big deal.  He ran in iron shoes and under all other sorts of duress, and the only race he lost was because they didn't have modern starting gates and he was facing backwards when the gun went off--he spotted Upset a 4 length lead and still lost that one race by less than a half length.  And he clobbered Upset in all the other races they competed in.
 
But Secretariat's Belmont is absolutely unreal.  My mom was there that day and still talks about how that little horse just was playing a different game from the rest of the field.
 
But that's just one race.  Overall, it's certainly a matter of debate even if you are only talking about the American GOAT--Secretariat actually lost several races throughout his career, for one thing, whereas Man 'o' War only had the one very fluky loss (and if you extend it outside the US, I wouldn't be surprised if Phar Lap, Kincsem, Frankel, and several others have their proponents).
 
My objection isn't to Secretariat being someone's pick for GOAT, it's to the idea that he's a unanimous undisputed selection for GOAT.  And also it's kind of funny that both of the most obvious American candidates for GOAT have the nickname Big Red (which was claimed as the obvious undisputed title).
 
I agree, I'm not the one who said it was undisputed.  I know the Man o' War/Secretariat debate is very heated, and like most sports, it's difficult to compare across eras The point I was making was while I would probably pick Man o' War for overall career value (won 20 of 21 races, and as you said, the loss to Upset was more due to him being left behind at the start than being outrun), the single greatest race ever run by a horse in history was Secretariat in the 1973 Belmont. Who your pick is for GOAT probably comes down to how much you value the performance in the 3 Triple Crown races vs. the rest of the career. To me, the most impressive thing is still having the track record for the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont 42 years later. It says something about his importance to people that they went back and reviewed and corrected the Preakness time to give him the record years later.
 
Secretariat was also very popular because, like American Pharoah, he broke a long drought (25 years) between Triple Crowns, and he was the first horse to win it in the TV era. Another link between Secretariat and American Pharoah is that Victor Espinoza became the 2nd jockey to win 5 out of 6 consecutive Triple Crown races, the other being Ron Turcotte (on Riva Ridge for the 72 Derby and Belmont and, of course, the 73 Triple Crown on Secretariat).
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,317
Regarding studding, if a horse is injured can't they still extract the special sauce manually and inject it?
 

WayBackVazquez

white knight against high school nookie
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2006
8,294
Los Angeles
Marciano490 said:
Regarding studding, if a horse is injured can't they still extract the special sauce manually and inject it?
 
Nope. You're not allowed to race as a thoroughbred unless you were made the way God intended.
 

PseuFighter

Silent scenester
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2003
14,408
I'm really surprised they're going to continue to race the horse. The risk of a life-ending injury seems way too high in the sport in general to even consider it.
 

Greg29fan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
20,504
NC
I would like to cast a vote for Citation as the greatest horse of all time. He beat the 1947 Horse of the Year Armed two times early in his three-year-old season, beat Coaltown (the 1949 Horse of the Year) by over three lengths in the Kentucky Derby, went on to win the Triple Crown (with a win in the Jersey Derby in between), won a bunch more stakes races after that, and then was so intimidating that he won the Pimlico Special in a walkover.

And Eddie Arcaro, who I think is the best jockey ever and the only jockey to ever win two Triple Crowns, said he was the best horse he ever rode.
 

SumnerH

Malt Liquor Picker
Dope
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
32,021
Alexandria, VA
PseuFighter said:
I'm really surprised they're going to continue to race the horse. The risk of a life-ending injury seems way too high in the sport in general to even consider it.
 
I'm curious about this.  I know nothing on the topic, but from googling it seems like a handful of horses can work their way up to phenomenal stud fees (like $100,000-$500,000 per cover; Northern Dancer pulled $1 million but is an outlier it seems).  But there are also some great racing horses that don't get huge stud fees.  Charismatic won the Derby and Preakness before breaking his leg and finishing 3rd at Belmont, and yet is claimed to get only $5000 as a stud.  Big Brown won the Derby and Preakness and was descended from the coveted Northern Dancer line; he started at $65,000 but declined quickly from there.
 
If that's the case, 3-4 more $1 million-ish purse races (with usually like 60% going to first place?) and the $5 million purse BCC make more sense, especially since they also have the potential to boost the stud fees (at least initially).
 

Monbo Jumbo

Hates the crockpot
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 5, 2003
25,235
the other Athens
SumnerH said:
 
I'm curious about this.  I know nothing on the topic, but from googling it seems like a handful of horses can work their way up to phenomenal stud fees (like $100,000-$500,000 per cover; Northern Dancer pulled $1 million but is an outlier it seems).  But there are also some great racing horses that don't get huge stud fees.  Charismatic won the Derby and Preakness before breaking his leg and finishing 3rd at Belmont, and yet is claimed to get only $5000 as a stud.  Big Brown won the Derby and Preakness and was descended from the coveted Northern Dancer line; he started at $65,000 but declined quickly from there.
 
If that's the case, 3-4 more $1 million-ish purse races (with usually like 60% going to first place?) and the $5 million purse BCC make more sense, especially since they also have the potential to boost the stud fees (at least initially).
 
 
Here's a good piece on Tapit from Bloomberg a few months ago. 
 
Also - of course American Pharaoh's sire, Pioneer of the Nile is worth more in stud fee's than American Pharaoh. He's a proven sire of a Triple Crown winner?
 

Greg29fan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
20,504
NC
This kind of explains it although I think the article underestimates the number of covers he would get (and the possibility of shuttling the horse to places like Australia which is now en vogue)

http://www.forbes.com/sites/maurybrown/2015/06/06/how-much-could-triple-crown-winner-american-pharoah-earn-in-stud-fees/

Charismatic was really good in the Derby and Preakness but at one point was in $50,000 maiden claimers (you could have bought him for $50,000 plus allowances in other words) and horses like Big Brown have had chances to have their offspring run and haven't been impressive enough to warrant a high stud fee. Plus as the article mentions, stud fees have been going down industry-wide.
 

SoxFanInCali

has the rich, deep voice of a god
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jun 3, 2005
15,615
California. Duh.
American Pharoah ran the last 1/4 mile faster that Secretariat, as Frosted gave him a little competition at the top of the stretch and Espinoza gave him a couple of hits of the whip.  Turcotte never went to the whip and Secretariat clearly wasn't challenged at all down the stretch, or he may have gone even faster.
 
Another amazing Secretariat Belmont fact: He hit the 1 1/4 mile mark at the Belmont in 1:59 flat, which is faster than his record time in the Kentucky Derby.
 
A couple of years ago they installed a blue and white checkered pole at Belmont Park, a little short of a 16th of a mile from the finish line, that shows where the 2nd place horse was when Secretariat finished.  Seeing it while watching the race made it even clearer just how beaten the rest of the horses were in 1973.
 

Mr Mulliner

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 16, 2001
793
I can't embed this because I'm on my phone, but everyone should watch Secretariat at the Preakness on YouTube, like right now.

I've seen it before, but I watched it again in my office this afternoon because almost nothing gives me the chills like that horse, for some weird reason. Belmont is probably the most dominant performance ever, but just watch the first turn at the Preakness. Secretariat goes from last to first in like a couple hundred yards. It looks like a high school kid racing 8 year olds or something.

That horse was something different, man.
 

twothousandone

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 18, 2001
3,976
Mr Poon 14 said:
That horse was something different, man.
And he had a great way of handling the post-race interviews. He said nothing. Didn't praise God and his opponents. Didn't use cliche after cliche. Didn't boast, or gloat, or belittle his competition. He said nothing, and let his performance speak for him.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,615
Portsmouth, NH
twothousandone said:
And he had a great way of handling the post-race interviews. He said nothing. Didn't praise God and his opponents. Didn't use cliche after cliche. Didn't boast, or gloat, or belittle his competition. He said nothing, and let his performance speak for him.
True, but he was a dick to kids asking for autographs.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,317
If I text you a couple outfit selections pre-race, will you help me pick out the best one?
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
Haven't updated in a while, but got some good news.  Fusaichi Red, which was our horse that finished 2nd in her first two races (including a debut loss to Condo Commando who ran in the Kentucky Oaks this year) returned in April after being shut down for 5 months or so with an injury.  She finished 3rd in back to back races in April and May, and then broke through with an almost 10 length win on July 7th to break her maiden.  
 
They ran her right back again in the small $70,000 Miss Woodford Stakes at Monmouth today, and she was about 15 lengths back at the top of the stretch, and turned on the afterburners and went around the outside of the field to win by 3-4 lengths.  She looks like she might be the real deal, and has really taken to Bravo riding her.  Be very interesting to see what they do with her from here, but probably send her down to Saratoga for that meet, where our other horse, Maddizasker has been putting together some pretty good training runs, but hasn't raced in a few months.  
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
Yep, that was about as easy a victory as you can get at top level graded stakes racing.  Whatever doubts folks had about how great AP was, should at this point be getting erased.  I consider myself one of them, although I started to become a believer shortly after the Derby.  He is as real deal as it gets.  As the announcer said today, he could have won by 20 lengths.  
 
It's going to be really interesting to see what races Baffert decides to put him into from here on out.  Baffert and the owner both were guaranteed $75,000 if they raced Pharaoh in the Haskell today, and the Monmouth Park raised the purse from $1,000,000 to $1,750,000 when Pharaoh committed to racing in it, which raised Pharaoh's winner's share to just over $1,000,000 from about $600,000.  Officially, it sounds like they are going to retire him to stud after the Breeders Cup Classic on Halloween, but between now and then, there is the Travers, the Pennsylvania Derby, etc., and a few other big races, but some of them are on conflicting weekends or happen too close to each other that Pharaoh obviously can't run all of them.  These tracks have huge incentives to get Pharaoh there (there were over 60,000 people at Monmouth today, which I would imagine is probably more than double, maybe triple, what it would be on a normal Haskell day), so there is already a lot of talk about raising purses, and Parx racing (home of the Penn Derby) already offers $50,000 each to the trainer and owner of a triple crown winner, which means Baffert and the owner would be guaranteed $150,000 each for racing in the Penn Derby (50k for each triple crown win).  
 
Whatever happens, doesn't seem like there will be any money to be made on Pharaoh from a betting standpoint unless a 10% return works for you.  He went off at 1/10 today, so only paid $2.20 to win.  Don't imagine that will change much in any race going forward. 
 

WayBackVazquez

white knight against high school nookie
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2006
8,294
Los Angeles
Beholder is a 6/5 favorite right now in the Pacific Classic. I'd love to see a mare win it, even if this is a somewhat week field.
 

WayBackVazquez

white knight against high school nookie
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2006
8,294
Los Angeles
FYI, my horse Goose Bumps finished 4th of 5 in an 8k claimer at Golden Gate yesterday. She is just absolutely awful.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
I threw a flyer at the last minute for $25 across on Keen Ice, just because I wanted to bet on someone.  Really didn't think AP would lose though. 
 
One of my horses, Fusaichi Red, is running next Sunday in a stakes race at Saratoga.  Forget the name.  She's coming off two straight wins, including a non-graded stakes win in the Miss Woodford Stakes at Monmouth a couple weeks ago.  She's training great, and is a serious closer.  I'll give an update later in the week. 
 

Greg29fan

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
20,504
NC
Zayat said after the race he's leaning to retiring the horse but he's a drama queen so I would expect cooler heads to prevail later in the week.
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
This is pretty cool.  My horse, Fusiachi Red, getting a little respect in the lead up to the Prioress Stakes on Sunday at Saratoga ($300,000 Grade II).  FR is going off from the 5 position, and it's going to be all about what kind of trip Joe Bravo can give her.  She's a slow starter, but an absolutely insane closer, and she's won her last two races easily, including the Miss Woodford Stakes at Monmouth a few weeks ago.  Can't guarantee anything, but she should go off at a pretty decent price. 
 
http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/94156/cavorting-drops-a-level-to-prioress
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
FR has a morning line of 12:1.  I think it might a tough race for her to win.  She's a closer, and there doesn't appear to be much early speed in this race, but rather a bunch of closers, including the favorite, Cavorting.  On top of that, it's only 6 furlongs, so whatever early speed there is doesn't have much time to tire out and let the finishers get their kick going.  One of the other owners, and co-owner of the stable, is on his way to the track, and he's supposed to meet with Weaver and get me a report.  If I have a chance, I'll report back. 
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
Thanks Dixie. Tough trip, but I'll take a third place finish in that field.  Bravo said she has a ton of heart and is getting stronger with every ride.  Looking forward to the next one. 
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
Fusiachi Red is set to run in the $350,000 Grade III Charles Town Stakes at Charlestown on Saturday.  Will likely be the 1st or 2nd favorite in the race according to the owner of the stable (early line has her at 5/2, with the favorite at 9/5).  I'll just be happy if she keeps her perfect 7/7 record of hitting the board going, and obviously, would be really psyched to see her win.  I'm much happier to see her in a 7 furlong race, as opposed to the 6 furlongs she just ran in the last one.  Gives her more time to get her kick going down the stretch, and is a longer race for the early speed to weaken.  It's the 11th race, and Bravo will be riding her again. 
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
Ehh, hope it didn't sour you on the whole game.  These are nothing but lottery tickets.  Of the three horses I bought a piece of, one was lost in a 25k claimer after winning two races, and then came back and won the first race off the claim, and was claimed again for 25k, and hasn't done much of anything since.  Another won her first race, and looked the best of the bunch and then started running poorly, got hurt and is now out for probably 6 months.  Meanwhile, FR came in 2nd in her first two races, then got hurt, missed four months, came back and is now doing this. They all came from great blood lines, but you just never know.  They all could have had the same fate as Goose Bumps too.  It's such a great sport though, and I think it's even more enjoyable when you're "involved," even if it's probably not a good financial idea. 
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
About 30 minutes til post time.  Really excited about this race for FR.  Her speed figures in the last few races have been better than the favorites.  Also seems like the favorite likes to get out early and a couple of other horses do too, so hopefully, they'll wear themselves out opening the door for FR to finish strong.  Joe Bravo started the day racing on the east coast, and then took a friend's private plane out to California to run this race (and one other).  He did a phone interview today with HRTV, link is below, where he talks about FR.  He seems to like her a lot.  I'm betting her harder than I usually do tonight.
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p8G3ayu6aIw
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
Oh well.  Win some, lose some.  Just never got going.  Race set up well for her, but she looked tired to me.  12 days between races, cross country trip, 10:15 EST time start, just don't think she had enough for this one, and Bravo just eased her up. 
 

WayBackVazquez

white knight against high school nookie
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2006
8,294
Los Angeles
Deathofthebambino said:
Joe Bravo started the day racing on the east coast, and then took a friend's private plane out to California to run this race (and one other).
 
 
Deathofthebambino said:
Oh well.  Win some, lose some.  Just never got going.  Race set up well for her, but she looked tired to me.  12 days between races, cross country trip, 10:15 EST time start, just don't think she had enough for this one, and Bravo just eased her up.
Wasn't this race at Charles Town in Charleston, West Virginia?
 

Deathofthebambino

Drive Carefully
SoSH Member
Apr 12, 2005
42,086
WayBackVazquez said:
 
  Wasn't this race at Charles Town in Charleston, West Virginia?
 
Maybe it was.  I just saw that it was Hollywood Casino, and the race went off at 10:15 p.m. EST, so I assumed it was out in California.