koufax32 said:
The BOS preference may simply be to drive up the price for NY too. In fact, the inclusion of LAAAAAA and NYM as well seems to be for the purpose of creating a massive bidding war between LA and NYY.
It could also be to send a message to Seattle and Chicago that they need to come up with more money than LA, NY or BOS to have a shot since all else being equal he goes with one of his preferences. The inclusion of Boston may be as much for Theos benefit as NY and LA.
Boston is pretty close to 189 though and signing Tanaka would put them over 189 and cost them the revenue sharing rebates in 2014, Tax is probably not a huge issue at 17%. However, in 2015 they have over 40 million coming off the books for Lackey, Dempster and Peavy so they probably get back under.
Tanakas preferences take into account the impact of the team and city on his endorsement opportunities in Japan. Playing for a good team like Boston is a plus in that regards, while playing for the Cubs or Mariners is perhaps a negative. OTOH, a smaller park and the AL East make it harder to perform well which also affects his endorsements in Japan, which are negatives for both NY and Bos.
Also, the Red Sox don't get the same revenue boost from Tanaka as other teams since the number of seats they have for sale will be minimal. Teams like NY, Seattle and LA could possibly expect an extra 5000-8000 fans per game that Tanaka pitches (unless he stinks), which could get them up to 10 million a year just from tickets and merchandise sales (at least for the first couple of years), and this possibility could lead those teams to make a larger offer.
The Dodgers are now looking at higher tax rates and have the Kershaw and Ramirez extensions to consider. They do have Becketts 17 million coming off the books after 2014 though.
I think Seattle probably has the best chance to get him if they can convince Tanaka they plan to compete, and Cano helps in that regard. Seattle perhaps has more to gain revenue wise (on a pct basis) and no worries on the luxury tax front. Pitchers have to like SAFECO. As a GB pitcher Tanaka has to be scared to death of Jeter as his SS, and that small porch in RF can seem intimidating to RHP'ers, even GB pitchers.