How Concened About Xander Bogaerts' Defense?

Reverend · Apr 27, 2014

I dunno. Ellsbury is currently sporting a -37.6 URZ/150 and I don't think he's a crappy fielder. I disagree that these stats are all we have as a reason to use them--numbers that mislead are not better than nothing.

The X-Man may suck in the field, but this isn't a good way to approach it, imo. Also, it's been reported that as chill as he is at the plate, he's really wound up in the field, so that cold change.

Edit: To elaborate, here's a quick and dirty way of thinking about this. A 101 stats textbook project will tell you you want 30 data points to try to generalize with statistics (please, no sample distribution examples from the advanced geeks--that's different). UZR is supposed to require 3 seasons of data to be considered reliable even as far as it is reliable. 450 games divided by 30 is 15, so the Bogaerts MLB game sample is sorta like 2 data points.

If this were a simple coin flip operation, there would be a 75% chance that generalizing off of the observed outcome would be the true phenomenon by 100% or more.

That said, I'd like to see him hold on to more of those. But that said, I think he's not likely to keep dropping the ball out of his glove the rest of his career, just as one example of his troubles.

WenZink · Apr 27, 2014

Talking about a rookie SS's defense in the first month of the season is a waste of time. He's less than a year removed from AA, playing on infields for the first time, and, right now, he's obviously pressing in the field as he realizes he's under scrutiny. In the post game show, Lyons mentioned that, in time, he can learn how to better position himself to make up for the lack of range that many large-body SS's usually have. One blessing is that Bogaerts has enough confidence that he's not letting his struggles in the field interfere with his concentration at the plate.

Let's wait until August before we judge his fitness to play shortstop. One thing is for sure, he's gotten to more balls this season then Stephen Drew.

dbn · Apr 27, 2014

As long as he improves a bit with experience, not very.

I don't think he'll ever be a better-than-average defensive SS. That's okay. Not everyone can be above average [/tautology].

Jerry was right, though. That was a play that Drew typically made, and made look routine. I'm bullish on his bat so as long as he is isn't terrible in the field he'll very much be an overall positive to the team.

Question for our minors-watchers: could Betts be a good defensive SS? I hope the Ortiz era lasts and lasts and lasts, but if Mookie's arrival timeline and Ortiz's departure timeline wind up being not too far apart, Xander as DH and utility IF could be an efficient use of resources.

Edit to make clear, in case it isn't already, that I expect Xander to be a star in MLB, and I'm psyched that it'll be with the Red Sox. My point is mostly that I don't expect him to be anywhere close enough bad in the field to counter his goodness with the bat. My speculation on moving him to DH is completely premature; just a thought.

Al Zarilla · Apr 27, 2014

dbn said:
As long as he improves a bit with experience, not very.

I don't think he'll ever be a better-than-average defensive SS. That's okay. Not everyone can be above average [/tautology].

Jerry was right, though. That was a play that Drew typically made, and made look routine. I'm bullish on his bat so as long as he is isn't terrible in the field he'll very much be an overall positive to the team.

Question for our minors-watchers: could Betts be a good defensive SS? I hope the Ortiz era lasts and lasts and lasts, but if Mookie's arrival timeline and Ortiz's departure timeline wind up being not too far apart, Xander as DH and utility IF could be an efficient use of resources.

Baseball stars, if you see X getting to that status, usually abhor DHing (Ortiz notwithstanding, knees though). Manny hated DHing but we had Ortiz there anyway, of course.

Curll · Apr 27, 2014

He's fine. Fake controversies to produce site hits and call-ins are very annoying.

IdiotKicker · Apr 27, 2014

I think it's something to watch, but given that there's no better alternative, he's going to and should get at least a year at SS to see how he does over a full season. I think if he continues to be a liability, a position change heading into 2015 becomes something to consider then.

radsoxfan · Apr 27, 2014

Xander hasn't been very good at SS, but it's very early (not to mention it's been freezing, particularly in the Chicago series). I think he has the athleticism to be a good defender somewhere, but the jury is still out on his range at SS.

I think he should get the entire season before even beginning to worry about his future at SS. First of all, there are no other options in organization to replace him. Plus, he still deserves a chance to improve.

After a year, the team will have a lot more info on both Xander's ability at SS, plus more data points on Middlebrooks, Cecchini, Marrero, and Betts. Ideally Bogaerts will be able to stick at SS, but you also want to fill out the left side of the IF (and maybe LF) in the most optimal way possible. Those are questions for a later time though. For now, lets just hope as the weather warms up, he starts to look more comfortable. Even if his range doesn't improve much, I think the poor throws and bobbles will likely decrease.

teddywingman · Apr 27, 2014

Curll said:
He's fine. Fake controversies to produce site hits and call-ins are very annoying.

It's not a fake controversy. And if you don't think Xander's defense is worth discussing, then I don't know what to tell you.

Everyone here will agree that his approach at the plate is very impressive for a rookie, and the fact that he will continue to develop as a hitter is exciting.

The problem with his fielding that is concerning, is that the core of the problem is a staggering lack of range. Take the play in the 8th today--yeah he got there and just failed to field it cleanly--but the error was already in process before the ball touched his glove because he was all out of ballance as a result of being painfully late to the spot. Everybody knows Drew makes that play; but the fact is, every major league shortstop makes that play.

Lyons said it in the post game: you can't teach range. You either have it or you don't. UZR doesn't have to quantify any of this. If he's going to stick at SS, we can really only hope that he becomes adequate and not a liability. Learning the league, better positioning, and general confidence should help. But in a perfect world he would be a third baseman.

Jnai · Apr 27, 2014

teddywingman said:
It's not a fake controversy. And if you don't think Xander's defense is worth discussing, then I don't know what to tell you.

Everyone here will agree that his approach at the plate is very impressive for a rookie, and the fact that he will continue to develop as a hitter is exciting.

The problem with his fielding that is concerning, is that the core of the problem is a staggering lack of range. Take the play in the 8th today--yeah he got there and just failed to field it cleanly--but the error was already in process before the ball touched his glove because he was all out of ballance as a result of being painfully late to the spot. Everybody knows Drew makes that play; but the fact is, every major league shortstop makes that play.

Lyons said it in the post game: you can't teach range. You either have it or you don't. UZR doesn't have to quantify any of this. If he's going to stick at SS, we can really only hope that he becomes adequate and not a liability. Learning the league, better positioning, and general confidence should help. But in a perfect world he would be a third baseman.

I guess I don't really understand this post very well. First, you say that his problem is lack of range. Then, you say that he was late. Then, you say range is unteachable. Then, you say that you hope he learns the league, has better positioning, and gains confidence.

Having never scouted, I know next to nothing about evaluating defense. I feel pretty confident in the abilities of our team scouts. But wanting to move Bogaerts to third feels a little bit like wanting to play Alex Cora at second after Pedroia's first month at the plate.

Al Zarilla · Apr 27, 2014

Jnai said:
I guess I don't really understand this post very well. First, you say that his problem is lack of range. Then, you say that he was late. Then, you say range is unteachable. Then, you say that you hope he learns the league, has better positioning, and gains confidence.

Having never scouted, I know next to nothing about evaluating defense. I feel pretty confident in the abilities of our team scouts. But wanting to move Bogaerts to third feels a little bit like wanting to play Alex Cora at second after Pedroia's first month at the plate.

Are some calling 2014 a transition year? Here, or Sox management? I mean, Sox did win it all last year, and three now in ten, so it's not like coming back from 2003 (and 86 years). So, give the kid a full year and don't panic. Then I read a Carlos Gonzalez rumor. LOL!

Edit, if this reads like a disagreeing post at all, it's not. Give him a lot of rope to work it out.

Savin Hillbilly · Apr 27, 2014

His defense so far has certainly been ugly at times, but in ways that make me less worried than I might be. It looks like he's getting in his own way out there, rushing and overcomplicating. For instance on that ball he dropped today, you could see on the replay that he was already looking at second before he had finished catching the ball. He let his mind get ahead of the play. Those kinds of problems time and experience should take care of, unless he's a head case. The technical things like positioning and footwork, coaching should help with (even if they may never make him really good at them). The physical limitations are what they are--we're not looking at the next Omar Vizquel--but they shouldn't necessarily prevent him from becoming a good-enough-considering-his-bat kind of shortstop in the Jeter mold.

EP Sox Fan · Apr 27, 2014

Marrero's glove seems like it's legit so if Xander's defense doesn't improve, stick him at third and have Marrero as SS. This nice thing about our farm system is that we have internal options that can provide longterm solutions so we don't have to pay a premium in FA.

ScubaSteveAvery · Apr 27, 2014

Speier wrote about this 2 days ago. The team recognizes that he needs time and doesn't seem that concerned by it. Lovullo thinks that by summer Bogaerts will be playing much better defensively:

The team knew this when it committed to Bogaerts at shortstop, understood that he would represent a work in progress and that what he did in April would not match his performance by mid-year. The team sees the athleticism, body control and aptitude that offer the raw materials of a solid shortstop -- but with the caveat that it may take some time for those raw materials to take shape.
"What I see is a kid who is learning step by step. He's a dependable shortstop, and I think he's learning the finer points that are being taught to him. It's taking a little bit of time for him to get exactly where he wants to. He's still a young player that's in the process of learning our concepts," observed bench coach Torey Lovullo. "His track record indicates, in all areas of his game, he learns the level and then begins to excel sometime around mid- to late-May. I think that's what he's done over the past three years of his development. And we have to remember that he is a young player who's still developing, and hasn't yet reached his full potential.
"It's a new level. It's a learning process for him and we had that expectation," added Lovullo. "Is he there yet? No. Is he improving daily? Yes. And by mid-June, I think we're going to see a player that's adapted very well to this level."

Link

The bolded portion seems really similar to Pedroia, who struggled early at each level and then excelled once he had enough repetitions. Like with Pedroia, the team is going to be patient, work with Bogaerts to make adjustments, and hope that his talent breaks through.

Additionally, I'm not sure tracking whether Drew would have had it is really all that constructive if we are trying to understand the limits of Bogaerts' defensive abilities. Stephen Drew is not walking through that door. Plus, comparing a seasoned shortstop to a 21 year old rookie's defense isn't that instructive.

InsideTheParker · Apr 27, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
His defense so far has certainly been ugly at times, but in ways that make me less worried than I might be. It looks like he's getting in his own way out there, rushing and overcomplicating. For instance on that ball he dropped today, you could see on the replay that he was already looking at second before he had finished catching the ball. He let his mind get ahead of the play. Those kinds of problems time and experience should take care of, unless he's a head case. The technical things like positioning and footwork, coaching should help with (even if they may never make him really good at them). The physical limitations are what they are--we're not looking at the next Omar Vizquel--but they shouldn't necessarily prevent him from becoming a good-enough-considering-his-bat kind of shortstop in the Jeter mold.

This puzzles me. I thought that Jeter was a very good defensive SS in his younger years and only showed a narrowing range as he aged. Am I wrong about that?

teddywingman · Apr 27, 2014

Jnai said:
I guess I don't really understand this post very well. First, you say that his problem is lack of range. Then, you say that he was late. Then, you say range is unteachable. Then, you say that you hope he learns the league, has better positioning, and gains confidence.

Is there a contradiction in anything that I said? Maybe the misunderstanding is in what 'range' is. To me it is the area that a player can cover from his initial position. He was late to the ball because it was at the edge of his range. A player with better range gets to that spot quicker and is better positioned to make the play.

Steve Lyons said you can't teach range. He's not the first person that has said that. I mean, a 21 year old is unlikely to get quicker--and that is a major component of range, right? But then, there ARE players who certainly improve their range. Jacoby Ellsbury comes to mind.

So yes, I finished my post by expressing hope that he can improve.

Having never scouted, I know next to nothing about evaluating defense. I feel pretty confident in the abilities of our team scouts. But wanting to move Bogaerts to third feels a little bit like wanting to play Alex Cora at second after Pedroia's first month at the plate.

I'm no scout either and I won't claim to know as much about baseball as you do. But haven't we heard some scouts say that they're not sure Bogaerts sticks as a SS?

I never said they should move him to third, did I? I think he's more suited to play third and will eventually wind up there; but with the team constructed as it is, he's playing SS for the rest of the year, as well he should, unless Middlebrooks winds up gone for some reason.

E5 Yaz · Apr 27, 2014

"What I see is a kid who is learning step by step. He's a dependable shortstop, and I think he's learning the finer points that are being taught to him. It's taking a little bit of time for him to get exactly where he wants to. He's still a young player that's in the process of learning our concepts," observed bench coach Torey Lovullo. "His track record indicates, in all areas of his game, he learns the level and then begins to excel sometime around mid- to late-May. I think that's what he's done over the past three years of his development. And we have to remember that he is a young player who's still developing, and hasn't yet reached his full potential.
"It's a new level. It's a learning process for him and we had that expectation," added Lovullo. "Is he there yet? No. Is he improving daily? Yes. And by mid-June, I think we're going to see a player that's adapted very well to this level."

People who know this stuff far better than us preach patience. It's good advice, even if grumpy old men like Remy and Cafardo want to mouth off

SumnerH · Apr 27, 2014

InsideTheParker said:
This puzzles me. I thought that Jeter was a very good defensive SS in his younger years and only showed a narrowing range as he aged. Am I wrong about that?

Yes. He was very sure-handed, which means he didn't commit many visible mistakes, but always had limited range--that's exactly the profile of a player likely to be overrated by simple observation. UZR had him negative every year but 2009; Total Zone had him barely positive in a couple more years but still a net negative for 1995-2000 (and even more negative later on).

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-great-derek-jeter-conspiracy/ has some discussion, too.

Savin Hillbilly · Apr 27, 2014

InsideTheParker said:
This puzzles me. I thought that Jeter was a very good defensive SS in his younger years and only showed a narrowing range as he aged. Am I wrong about that?

I wasn't making a comment about Jeter's defensive career arc, just using him as a comp for a guy whose defense was below-average but who was still a plus player overall.

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Apr 27, 2014

I really don't understand why so many want to give up on WMB so quickly. Just move X over and trade WMB. Why? Middlebrooks can be a force offensively and has shown he can make some pretty good plays at 3rd. I think that trading away young, cost-controlled power hitters is fools errand. Give X some rope at SS, and let WMB progress. That has the makings of an almost 60 HR left side of the infield.

curly2 · Apr 27, 2014

EP Sox Fan said:
Marrero's glove seems like it's legit so if Xander's defense doesn't improve, stick him at third and have Marrero as SS. This nice thing about our farm system is that we have internal options that can provide longterm solutions so we don't have to pay a premium in FA.

I am NOt giving up on Xander as a shortstop after a month, but If Marrero does become the shortstop, with Middlebrook and Cecchinio, I could see Xander's future in left field.

Gomes and Sizemore are both FA after the year, so the Sox will need a left fielder. Brentz doesn't impress me as a starter on a contending team, and Betts' speed would be wasted in Fenway's LF (his future may be that super-utility guy who plays everywhere).

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon · Apr 27, 2014

InsideTheParker said:
This puzzles me. I thought that Jeter was a very good defensive SS in his younger years and only showed a narrowing range as he aged. Am I wrong about that?

From a March 30 story in the Glob:

“It’s such a process because it’s such a demanding position,” said Sox infield coach Brian Butterfield. “I’m pleased where he’s at, but there’s a long way to go.”

Jeter committed 56 errors in 1993 as a Single A shortstop. Butterfield was one of the coaches who helped guide him to the majors. Now Butterfield has a new project.
“Bogie has a lot of similarities to Derek,” said the coach. “They’re both athletic, they both have body control, and they both have arm strength. They have aptitude and they want to learn.
“I have every confidence he’s going to be fine there. When they called and asked me this winter if I thought he could do it, I was positive he could.”

The organization knows "there's a long way to go," but they pretty clearly feel that there's still plenty of upside.

When I've watched, the errors, as others have said above, seem more like the kinds created by nerves, fumbling, etc., than by fundamental lack of talent. I'm hopeful that he'll become a lot more steady. Defense, especially on the infield, is something that gets much harder as you move up each level. I think it will just take a while for X to get a handle on it.

InsideTheParker · Apr 27, 2014

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:
From a March 30 story in the Glob:

The organization knows "there's a long way to go," but they pretty clearly feel that there's still plenty of upside.

When I've watched, the errors, as others have said above, seem more like the kinds created by nerves, fumbling, etc., than by fundamental lack of talent. I'm hopeful that he'll become a lot more steady. Defense, especially on the infield, is something that gets much harder as you move up each level. I think it will just take a while for X to get a handle on it.

That's very interesting. But I wonder if the implication is that the training and the reduction of errors took place at the minor league level rather than on the major league team. Anyway, I certainly hope he'll improve as the season goes on. The sooner the better.

mauf · Apr 27, 2014

Why are most of the folks who think X doesn't have the range to play SS convinced he'll stick at 3B? When you think of components of good range (instincts, first step, and closing speed, plus the hands to make the play once you get there), most of those things are important at 3B too, and the one that isn't (speed) seems unlikely to be X's biggest challenge, at least to my eyes.

I'm in the "let him work it out" camp, but that's only because I trust the FO, which has had the benefit of watching him for years. He looks dreadful out there.

wade boggs chicken dinner · Apr 27, 2014

WenZink said:
Talking about a rookie SS's defense in the first month of the season is a waste of time. He's less than a year removed from AA, playing on infields for the first time, and, right now, he's obviously pressing in the field as he realizes he's under scrutiny.

This. Particularly the part about playing on new infields for the first time. And isn't Fenway's infield still challenging even though they have tried to address it?

Herald also did an article on this: http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2014/04/in_defense_of_xander_red_sox_prepared_to_endure. Article points out that Nomar had 21 errors his rookie season; Hanley had 26. And Brian Butterfield had this to say:

Point is, Bogaerts wouldn't be the first tall, skinny shortstop to struggle defensively early in his career. A learning curve exists for most young shortstops. And although Bogaerts might never win any Gold Gloves, the Red Sox trust the opinion of well-respected infield coach Brian Butterfield, who believes he has the ability to become an above-average defensive shortstop as long as he's able to make the routine plays, well, routine.

“Shortstop is so demanding, consistency becomes so important, especially if you’re talking about a championship-caliber club,” Butterfield said recently. “If you do have a young shortstop, he needs to mature quickly and become a consistent defender order for us to be successful. The groundball that he can get to on time and on balance, you want to get to a point where you know that runner is out. That’s a consistent shortstop."

XB is currently 3rd in OPS in the AL. Yeah, it's too bad that he has some warts on defense as a rookie, but the upside is so high, the Red Sox have to let him live with it.

And if he's still fielding like this next year, well that just means he's a Jed Lowrie-type who can actually stay on the field. And I thought a lot of people would have been happy if the Sox let Jed play SS.

teddywingman · Apr 27, 2014

maufman said:
Why are most of the folks who think X doesn't have the range to play SS convinced he'll stick at 3B? When you think of components of good range (instincts, first step, and closing speed, plus the hands to make the play once you get there), most of those things are important at 3B too, and the one that isn't (speed) seems unlikely to be X's biggest challenge, at least to my eyes.

I'm in the "let him work it out" camp, but that's only because I trust the FO, which has had the benefit of watching him for years. He looks dreadful out there.

He's got the arm for it.
And the athleticism is there obviously.
Less range required.

Incredibly small sample, but he played well at 3rd in some pretty big games last year.

Do you think he wouldn't stick at 3rd?

Al Zarilla · Apr 27, 2014

wade boggs chicken dinner said:
This. Particularly the part about playing on new infields for the first time. And isn't Fenway's infield still challenging even though they have tried to address it?

Herald also did an article on this: http://bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox_mlb/clubhouse_insider/2014/04/in_defense_of_xander_red_sox_prepared_to_endure. Article points out that Nomar had 21 errors his rookie season; Hanley had 26. And Brian Butterfield had this to say:

XB is currently 3rd in OPS in the AL. Yeah, it's too bad that he has some warts on defense as a rookie, but the upside is so high, the Red Sox have to let him live with it.

And if he's still fielding like this next year, well that just means he's a Jed Lowrie-type who can actually stay on the field. And I thought a lot of people would have been happy if the Sox let Jed play SS.

Third in OPS? We wish.

Savin Hillbilly · Apr 27, 2014

maufman said:
Why are most of the folks who think X doesn't have the range to play SS convinced he'll stick at 3B? When you think of components of good range (instincts, first step, and closing speed, plus the hands to make the play once you get there), most of those things are important at 3B too, and the one that isn't (speed) seems unlikely to be X's biggest challenge, at least to my eyes.

What I don't know about defense could fill several volumes, but I think you're overcomplicating it. The bottom line is that a 3B has much less ground to cover. In the part of the infield where 3B and SS overlap, the 3B plays closer to the plate, meaning a tighter arc--so quick reactions matter more, but "range" in the sense of ground-covering ability matters less. And in the other direction, a 3B doesn't have far to go before the balls are foul and irrelevant. So whatever your range-relevant "component" abilities are, deficiencies in any of them will be exposed less often at 3B than at SS.

Harry Hooper · Apr 27, 2014

Let's just say the Butterfield sessions with Xander are a work in progress.

Right now, nothing Xander is doing defensively is fluid out there, including throws. Whether this is nerves, too much running through mental checklists while attempting a play, unfamiliar surfaces, or some combination remains to be seen. He will definitely get better with time. Whether he will become good enough remains to be seen.

The plays he seems to have the most trouble with involve BOTH lateral movement AND getting the glove low enough to make the play. Sometimes he misses the ball completely, sometimes he smothers/bobbles it, and sometimes he gloves the ball but his footwork to throw isn't there. That could be a long-term concern as he is likely to physically grow a bit more, but now is the time to see what he can do.

HriniakPosterChild · Apr 27, 2014

WenZink said:
Talking about a rookie SS's defense in the first month of the season is a waste of time. He's less than a year removed from AA, playing on infields for the first time, and, right now, he's obviously pressing in the field as he realizes he's under scrutiny. In the post game show, Lyons mentioned that, in time, he can learn how to better position himself to make up for the lack of range that many large-body SS's usually have. One blessing is that Bogaerts has enough confidence that he's not letting his struggles in the field interfere with his concentration at the plate.

Let's wait until August before we judge his fitness to play shortstop. One thing is for sure, he's gotten to more balls this season then Stephen Drew.

Isn't that why we pay some people on the coaching staff--to suggest to the players where to stand when playing defense?

snowmanny · Apr 27, 2014

Al Zarilla said:
Third in OPS? We wish.

I think he means amongst shortstops

Al Zarilla · Apr 27, 2014

snowmanny said:
I think he means amongst shortstops

OK.

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon · Apr 27, 2014

Plympton91 said:
I think the problem with moving to third base, as others have noted, is that both Middlebrooks and Cecchini project to be pretty good there as well, and presumably have less positional flexibility, or at least Middlebrooks appears to. Corner outfield is definitely an organizational weakness, so ending up with Bogaerts in RF, with Cecchini in LF and Middlebrooks at 3B would be entirely consistent with working in the upper level prospects. In fact, Cecchini has struggled a bit vs. lefthanders in his career, so a Brentz/Hassan and Cecchini platoon might be a great low cost productive spot.

All of this, however, necessitates finding a better option at SS than the below-average defense and plus-plus offense that Bogaerts offers even if he doesn't get smoother out there. That would mean that Marrero learns to not be a black hole or that Betts adapts to become a David Eckstein type SS with good range but a weak arm. The Red Sox have tended to put prospects at the most challenging part of the defensive spectrum that they can handle, and yet they've never played Betts at SS. So that might suggest he does not have the ability to play there. There's an opening for either Betts or Marrero to move up to Pawtucket and play SS during the second half of the season, leaving the other one as the shortstop at Portland, if they want to go that route.

Finally, I wasn't pining for Steven Drew himself to be resigned, by saying we should track the plays that we think Drew would have made that Bogaerts muffs. Drew is just a good example of an above average defensive shortstop but not a wizard out there, and we all have a recent frame of reference with which to judge. As such, plays he'd make seem like a worthy aspiration for where we'd like our shortstop of the future to reach.

I've seen this a few times, so not picking on you. But lifetime minors OBP of .346 doesn't say "black hole" to me - is that the accepted gospel, that he's been terrible at the plate? Not much pop, but 20 doubles and 20 steals the last two years in ~400 ABs is a little something-something.

Sprowl · Apr 27, 2014

I think Xander gets the entire year at shortstop, and grows into a below average shortstop after a few months, but...

curly2 said:
I am NOt giving up on Xander as a shortstop after a month, but If Marrero does become the shortstop, with Middlebrook and Cecchinio, I could see Xander's future in left field.

Gomes and Sizemore are both FA after the year, so the Sox will need a left fielder. Brentz doesn't impress me as a starter on a contending team, and Betts' speed would be wasted in Fenway's LF (his future may be that super-utility guy who plays everywhere).

I agree that Xander looks like a good outfield prospect -- he's very good at tracking pop flies, and he doesn't seem to bend very well for grounders.

maufman said:
Why are most of the folks who think X doesn't have the range to play SS convinced he'll stick at 3B? When you think of components of good range (instincts, first step, and closing speed, plus the hands to make the play once you get there), most of those things are important at 3B too, and the one that isn't (speed) seems unlikely to be X's biggest challenge, at least to my eyes.

I'm in the "let him work it out" camp, but that's only because I trust the FO, which has had the benefit of watching him for years. He looks dreadful out there.

Bogaerts looked very good at 3B in the World Series after Middlebrooks played his way onto the bench. Of course, it's a small sample, but he seemed to have all the tools for making short diving stops. As a shortstop, he never really seems to get motoring when reaching for grounders. Maybe he'll grow out of that eventually, or maybe it's a characteristic of him as an athlete.

teddywingman · Apr 28, 2014

HriniakPosterChild said:
Isn't that why we pay some people on the coaching staff--to suggest to the players where to stand when playing defense?

Obviously positioning--in this day and age--comes from extensive scouting reports. However, the reports that dictate preferred positioning--based on hitter/pitcher/count and other aspects of each situation--well they don't tell a player the exact coordinates of the spot at which he should stand.

Two steps one way or another can make a huge difference, especially in Xander's case, where everything seems to be a step or two out of reach.

Personally I think he should play as deep as possible, whenever he can, and make up for his below average range with his above average arm. Cal Ripken used to play on the outfield grass half the time.

Sampo Gida · Apr 28, 2014

XB looks more and more like a 3B man to me. While he may improve with experience, he should get quite a bit bigger in the next few years as he fills out which may affect his range.

However, the kid is the real deal as a hitter and as the Yankees have shown over the years, teams can still win without a great defensive SS. XB's defense might cost them a game or two over the course of a year, but his bat will win more games than his glove costs.

TheoShmeo · Apr 28, 2014

I don't know how you can be unconcerned about Xander's defense. He gives away outs, doesn't make many tough plays and probably makes the pitchers less secure than they would be if an even average defensive SS was out there.

It's fine to say he's young and should improve. I don't know if the latter is true. But right now, he's learning on the job and is performing at well below average levels. The few defensive metrics we have tell us that, as do our eyes.

And SG, I enjoyed the passive aggressive shot to Jeter there. True enough.

ivanvamp · Apr 28, 2014

curly2 said:
I am NOt giving up on Xander as a shortstop after a month, but If Marrero does become the shortstop, with Middlebrook and Cecchinio, I could see Xander's future in left field.

Gomes and Sizemore are both FA after the year, so the Sox will need a left fielder. Brentz doesn't impress me as a starter on a contending team, and Betts' speed would be wasted in Fenway's LF (his future may be that super-utility guy who plays everywhere).

Future IF for Boston: Betts, Marrero, Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Ceccini, Pedroia (under contract through 2021). That's six guys for three spots.

It's a very nice problem to have. But it *will* take some figuring out, for sure. I can't imagine they all stay with the Sox, and some of them can probably fetch something pretty nice in return.

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Apr 28, 2014

It's probably worth noting here that Xander is 21 years old and has less than 35 games of major league experience at shortstop. Are we REALLY going to start slagging on the kid for his defense so soon? Thinking about position changes? Really?

It wasn't THAT long ago that St. Jacoby of the Outfield put up, in his first full season in the major leagues, an 88 OPS+ over 600+ PA, and got himself benched in the postseason for being so awful. And then the next year he put up a 98 OPS+. And then the next year he played only 18 games. And then last offseason he got a $152 million contract.

Sometimes it takes a while for young players to reach their potential.

Also, citing partial season UZR stats to try to cite defensive deficiencies should be a capital offense. We've talked about that for years.

glennhoffmania · Apr 28, 2014

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
It's probably worth noting here that Xander is 21 years old and has less than 35 games of major league experience at shortstop. Are we REALLY going to start slagging on the kid for his defense so soon? Thinking about position changes? Really?

It wasn't THAT long ago that St. Jacoby of the Outfield put up, in his first full season in the major leagues, an 88 OPS+ over 600+ PA, and got himself benched in the postseason for being so awful. And then the next year he put up a 98 OPS+. And then the next year he played only 18 games. And then last offseason he got a $152 million contract.

Sometimes it takes a while for young players to reach their potential.

Also, citing partial season UZR stats to try to cite defensive deficiencies should be a capital offense. We've talked about that for years.

I agree with your general point, but I think what's causing most people's concern is that range isn't generally something that improves with age. He could develop better instincts, footwork, etc., but he's probably not going to transform from Jeterian range to Ozzie-esque range over the next few years.

Edit- and I'm not referring to UZR. I'm referring to observations that may suggest a range issue.

Doctor G · Apr 28, 2014

He seems to be struggling the most with being balanced once he gets to the ball laterally. This could be a product of the ground balls being hit harder at this level. Does he have AAA range?

Smiling Joe Hesketh · Apr 28, 2014

glennhoffmania said:
I agree with your general point, but I think what's causing most people's concern is that range isn't generally something that improves with age. He could develop better instincts, footwork, etc., but he's probably not going to transform from Jeterian range to Ozzie-esque range over the next few years.

Edit- and I'm not referring to UZR. I'm referring to observations that may suggest a range issue.

He's 21. If anyone's suggesting that he's a finished product already or can't improve on his play, they need their ears boxed. And he doesn't need Ozzie-range, he just needs to be decent, and I fully expect that in the fullness of time he will be just that.

IMO there shouldnt be any concern for him at all at the current time. I mean, none. Zero. Nada. Zilch. We're talking about an insanely small sample of play here by a kid who in many other orgs would still be in AAA. I am fully confident that given more experience he will gain both the skills and the confidence to improve in the field.

If anyone has some of the old Bill James Abstracts, or his compilation This Time Let's Not Eat the Bones, go read his article about Cal Ripken's transition to SS early in his career. It's illuminating.

Not everything needs to be over-analyzed to death. You've got an immensely talented, very young, very inexperienced player learning on the job at the toughest position in baseball. I know no one expects perfection, but the reaction seems to have swung in the opposite direction. I mean, talking position changes already? That's insane to me.

Eck'sSneakyCheese · Apr 28, 2014

This is like Iggy all over again. Except people are condemning Xander's glove instead of Jose's bat. The kid is likely to be a top 3-5 offensive SS for the next 10 years at least. So what if he's Hanley Ramirez? Would anyone complain if that ends up being a fair comp?

glennhoffmania · Apr 28, 2014

Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
He's 21. If anyone's suggesting that he's a finished product already or can't improve on his play, they need their ears boxed. And he doesn't need Ozzie-range, he just needs to be decent, and I fully expect that in the fullness of time he will be just that.

IMO there shouldnt be any concern for him at all at the current time. I mean, none. Zero. Nada. Zilch. We're talking about an insanely small sample of play here by a kid who in many other orgs would still be in AAA. I am fully confident that given more experience he will gain both the skills and the confidence to improve in the field.

If anyone has some of the old Bill James Abstracts, or his compilation This Time Let's Not Eat the Bones, go read his article about Cal Ripken's transition to SS early in his career. It's illuminating.

Not everything needs to be over-analyzed to death. You've got an immensely talented, very young, very inexperienced player learning on the job at the toughest position in baseball. I know no one expects perfection, but the reaction seems to have swung in the opposite direction. I mean, talking position changes already? That's insane to me.

To be clear, I'm not overly concerned about him. I think so far he doesn't look great defensively, but I think he looks very good with the bat. I also think if the team was winning and not playing shitty defense all around that this issue wouldn't be a big concern right now.

I would be surprised if his range ever becomes above average, but I still think he can stick at SS for the long term if he improves in other areas and continues to be a very good hitter.

Savin Hillbilly · Apr 28, 2014

glennhoffmania said:
I agree with your general point, but I think what's causing most people's concern is that range isn't generally something that improves with age.

I think this really needs parsing. Range is a complex thing. It's partly athletic ability, partly technique, and partly accumulated knowledge. The athletic ability part may not improve much after the early 20s, but the other two can and should. Dustin Pedroia's range peaked by the numbers in 2011, at age 27, and came close to those numbers again last year at 29. My eye tells me pretty much the same thing. I don't think he was a better athlete at 29 than he was at 24, but he had more range at second base, because he was better at positioning and anticipating.

ivanvamp said:
Future IF for Boston: Betts, Marrero, Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Ceccini, Pedroia (under contract through 2021). That's six guys for three spots.

It's a very nice problem to have. But it *will* take some figuring out, for sure. I can't imagine they all stay with the Sox, and some of them can probably fetch something pretty nice in return.

If all six of those guys are still in Boston come 2016, two of them will be playing corner OF spots, and one will be at either 1B or DH. Since we don't really have any serious corner OF prospects other than maybe Brentz, this should work itself out pretty smoothly if it needs to. But that's a long way down the road, and as you say, it seems pretty likely that at least one of the six won't be here by then.

glennhoffmania · Apr 28, 2014

Savin Hillbilly said:
I think this really needs parsing. Range is a complex thing. It's partly athletic ability, partly technique, and partly accumulated knowledge. The athletic ability part may not improve much after the early 20s, but the other two can and should. Dustin Pedroia's range peaked by the numbers in 2011, at age 27, and came close to those numbers again last year at 29. My eye tells me pretty much the same thing. I don't think he was a better athlete at 29 than he was at 24, but he had more range at second base, because he was better at positioning and anticipating.

I agree, and I mentioned this earlier. He could certainly improve due to better instincts, knowledge, positioning, etc. But I would guess it's not common for a guy to improve on his raw range independent of those things.

wolfe_boston · Apr 28, 2014

Yes, he's not going to improve his range and he's never going to be a GG SS, but maybe with some work he could improve to an average level which would be good enough. The bottom line is that the Sox are likely to give WMB and X a full season before considering any changes.

Reverend · Apr 28, 2014

teddywingman said:
Obviously positioning--in this day and age--comes from extensive scouting reports. However, the reports that dictate preferred positioning--based on hitter/pitcher/count and other aspects of each situation--well they don't tell a player the exact coordinates of the spot at which he should stand.

Two steps one way or another can make a huge difference, especially in Xander's case, where everything seems to be a step or two out of reach.

Personally I think he should play as deep as possible, whenever he can, and make up for his below average range with his above average arm. Cal Ripken used to play on the outfield grass half the time.

This Red Sox have altered this equation to a degree. Butterfield goes through the infield with the players and divides the whole area into slots and there are names for each one. They are pretty precise in their positioning based on the reports they have, and have worked hard to get buy in from the players, which is a neat dividend of the whole team culture they have cultivated--Pedroia and Victorino brought their coaches to the Golden Glove award ceremony this year.

Savin Hillbilly said:
I think this really needs parsing. Range is a complex thing. It's partly athletic ability, partly technique, and partly accumulated knowledge. The athletic ability part may not improve much after the early 20s, but the other two can and should. Dustin Pedroia's range peaked by the numbers in 2011, at age 27, and came close to those numbers again last year at 29. My eye tells me pretty much the same thing. I don't think he was a better athlete at 29 than he was at 24, but he had more range at second base, because he was better at positioning and anticipating.

This is where I'm at right now. From my untrained eye, while Bogaerts hasn't gotten to some balls Drew would have, there have been a bunch where he does physically get to it, but then only knocks it down or screws up getting it to his throwing hand or otherwise butchers the play. That seems like something that could be a function of pressing and stressing too much, especially combined with the errant throws that I don't recall seeing much of last year.

According to FanGraphs, there have only been 63 balls in his zone and he has a total of 45 plays made. Therefore, those butchered plays constitute a significant portion of the bad fielding we're seeing, the point being that that portion may be correctable.

Like Salhaney said, the guy is 21 years old and has only about 375 professional games under his belt. We usually don't see guys at this age, much less subject them to this kind of scrutiny, so it's really difficult to say if he's behind the curve or not.

WenZink · Apr 28, 2014

ivanvamp said:
Future IF for Boston: Betts, Marrero, Middlebrooks, Bogaerts, Ceccini, Pedroia (under contract through 2021). That's six guys for three spots.

It's a very nice problem to have. But it *will* take some figuring out, for sure. I can't imagine they all stay with the Sox, and some of them can probably fetch something pretty nice in return.

The underlying problem with "building from within," is that you're not dealing with robots, you're betting on the range of human strengths and weaknesses, physical, mental and emotional. The "ideal" break-in for the Red Sox would have seen them keeping Iglesias and putting Bogaerts at 3rd, but that would have gone awry with Iglesias' shin injuries, not to mention that Middlebrooks would be clogging up the system in AAA and denying Cecchini a chance. If it's impossible to predict a half season in advance, then how can the Sox plan for 2015 or 2016 while maintaining some sense of order? It can't be done. Building from within is accompanied by a healthy dose of chaos, which is easier dealt with in Miami then in Boston. I suggest we learn to deal with it. Citing UZR to evaluate a rookie's defense after a couple dozen games is not a good start.

How Concened About Xander Bogaerts' Defense?

bubble burster

for king and country

New Member

Member

Member

Guest

Member

Member

Looks like Zach Galifianakis

is not worried about sex with goats

Member

loves the secret sauce

Member

Master of the Senate

persists in error

Looks like Zach Galifianakis

polka king

Malt Liquor Picker

loves the secret sauce

Member

Member

Member

persists in error

Anderson Cooper × Mr. Rogers

Member

Looks like Zach Galifianakis

Member

loves the secret sauce

Well-Known Member

Member

Member

Member

bubble burster

Member

mikey lowell of the sandbox

Looks like Zach Galifianakis

Member

Skrub's sympathy case

captain obvious

Throw Momma From the Train

meat puppet

Member

Throw Momma From the Train

Member

meat puppet

loves the secret sauce

meat puppet

Commissioner of Calvinball

for king and country

New Member