How Good Are The Sox Now?

[rembrat]

What's Gausman's exuse for being so shitty on the road his entire career up to this point? Was all he needed was to face the Sox to figure things out? Of course not.

I wonder if the SJH's of the world were pissed when Jackie was setting the world on fire this year. "But historically he is a .638 OPS hitter! Shameful!"

You pop up every time there's a slight skid with some negative half cocked analysis on why this team won't be this or that. Give it a rest.

 

[moondog80]

Still no excuses. In his career Gausman entered last night's game 6-21 with an ERA pushing 5.00 in his road starts; this year he was 1-9 with an ERA of over 4 and a half in his road starts. He has been a horrible pitcher on the road forever. For the Sox to get only 4 hits and muster absolutely noting of note against this guy is maddening; it hearkens back to that awful Kyle Gibson start at Fenway earlier this summer where they again made mediocrity seem great. If they had gotten stuffed by, say, Felix Hernandez I'd be fine with it. Against Gausman? No way.
.

Gausman is 25 years old and has major pedigree as a prospect. His recent stretch suggests he's taking a step forward. He's not some mediocre journeyman, he wasn't last night anyway.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

I wonder if the SJH's of the world were pissed when Jackie was setting the world on fire this year. "But historically he is a .638 OPS hitter! Shameful!"

You pop up every time there's a slight skid with some negative half cocked analysis on why this team won't be this or that. Give it a rest.

Shouldn't you be dry-humping Farrell or something?

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Back to the inconsistency: part of it is their record in 1-run games. 16-22 looks bad, but is probably due to just the nature of tight games in general. The pen was awful earlier in the summer; maybe it's better now that Koji's back. We'll have to see. The bad record in 1-run games might also be due to the fact that I can't remember the last walkoff win they've had; B-Ref tells me it was June 23 against the White Sox, and since then they've had 3 WO losses, so the tight games aren't going their way recently.

Their record in blowouts is 30-11, which is promising, but I wonder if they simply have a hard time staying focused and in control in tight games when they get down early. Last night they fell behind 1-0 in the second and you could feel the air get sucked out of the place, and the ABs that followed simply weren't very good.

I'd love to figure out a variance factor; do teams with very high variance in runs scored like this one typically struggle or thrive?

 

[grimshaw]

This division is ridiculous. 8-8 vs Toronto. 7-8 vs. Baltimore. 4 legit playoff hopefuls.
This team coasts in anywhere else. Freaking non-parity could be the downfall.

I would have loved for them to steal a game this series, but Showalter is somehow still their daddy. The pitching remains elite. The bullpen has rounded into shape. 2/3 of the lineup has been a serious offensive force the whole season. Tough to ask for much more.

They'll probably need to sweep TB or go 5-2 against the Yanks, and not get swept in the final series vs both Tor/Balt to win this thing because Baltimore is not fading with Tampa and the D-Backs coming up.

You really have to give them (the O's) kudos. They had no business sticking around with their overall pitching, especially with their best pitcher on the shelf for a bit and they made it through the 2nd roughest stretch of the wild card contenders.

 

[dwainw]

Tuesday's game was the stinker, especially by the offense. Pomeranz was bad but once the pen righted the ship they had ample opportunities to catch up and seal a series win. They missed a TON of very hittable pitches--and hit some balls hard right at people. Last night was excusable v. a guy with great stuff. Tuesday night's lost opportunity, not so much.

Anyway, IMHO, this weekend will give us a good sense of this team's fortitude. If they split or worse, I'll seriously question if they're ready for prime time. Their inconsistency at home and habit of disappearing at the end of close games is becoming a real puzzle--and bodes very poorly for any kind of post-season run.

 

[dcmissle]

Yes, the Os are there with a run differential of +29, a game ahead of Toronto, which has them beat by 45 runs and a game behind the RS, who have them beat by a whopping 140. Makes me hate Buck more.

Take Gausman out of the equation because he's the tail wagging this dog and a convenient red herring. Stipulate they deservedly lost last night's game. There is still too much inconsistency.

Ras' outlook is the healthy one -- but this division race should not be a dead heat.

 

[curly2]

Gausman is 25 years old and has major pedigree as a prospect. His recent stretch suggests he's taking a step forward. He's not some mediocre journeyman, he wasn't last night anyway.

As I said in the game thread, Guasman is very talented, came in a roll and was absolutely dealing last night, so I don't have a problem with last night's performance. The problem is when you let a mediocre Kendall Graveman and a washed-up Edwin Jackson shut you down on back-to-back days. Hit guys like that, and you can absorb last night's loss a lot easier.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

For the Sox to get only 4 hits and muster absolutely noting of note against this guy is maddening; it hearkens back to that awful Kyle Gibson start at Fenway earlier this summer where they again made mediocrity seem great. If they had gotten stuffed by, say, Felix Hernandez I'd be fine with it. Against Gausman? No way.

I'd much rather face Felix Hernandez going forward than Kevin Gausman. And it's not particularly close. Gausman has clearly taken a step forward and is looking like the guy they hoped they were getting when they drafted him. Last night is not a knock against this offense. It's a notch in Gausman's belt. What Gausman did earlier in his career isn't really relevant given his age. Or is Rick Porcello currently a mediocre pitcher because he struggled early in his career?

Gausman is currently a really good starter. Really good starters can shut down really good offenses. That's what happened last night.

 

[grimshaw]

Yes, the Os are there with a run differential of +29, a game ahead of Toronto, which has them beat by 45 runs and a game behind the RS, who have them beat by a whopping 140. Makes me hate Buck more.

They've also been outscored by 42 runs against Boston, NY and Toronto and are one game under .500 vs them.

Since 2010, Showalter's O's are 71-56 (30 and 26 vs. Tito and also outscored) against Boston and have been outscored by 14 runs.
They got badly beaten by NY and TOR over that same time.

I can't wait until he retires.

 

[Rovin Romine]

I'd much rather face Felix Hernandez going forward than Kevin Gausman. And it's not particularly close. Gausman has clearly taken a step forward and is looking like the guy they hoped they were getting when they drafted him. Last night is not a knock against this offense. It's a notch in Gausman's belt. What Gausman did earlier in his career isn't really relevant given his age. Or is Rick Porcello currently a mediocre pitcher because he struggled early in his career?

Gausman is currently a really good starter. Really good starters can shut down really good offenses. That's what happened last night.

I didn't see much of a plan in terms of how to deal with Gausman. At the very least, they could have tried to run the pitch count up and get to Baltimore's pen.

If anything, games like this illustrate how important it is for Farrell to optimize those games he can have an impact on - e.g. the game before this one where he let Hanigan bat because he was "running a good game." Not all of those decisions will have an impact on those individual games, but with 17 games left, making consistently good decisions might net an extra win. It's entirely possible that extra win will be needed.

Absent hidden injuries, it's the time to play for every game.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Farrell was clutching his chest in the dugout at one point last night. It certainly appears he knows that time's a-wasting.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Farrell was clutching his chest in the dugout at one point last night. It certainly appears he knows that time's a-wasting.

I wonder if he'd like to have any games back to revisit his decisions. Did all those times he attempted to steal an extra out from a starter pay off? (I honestly don't know why clubs don't identify their 2 likeliest division rivals and go into "quasi-playoff" mode against them earlier in the season.)

The Jays:

Chris Young gets "warmed up" against a RHP, leaves 4 on. http://m.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-blue-jays/2016/04/10/446942?#game=446942,game_state=final,game_tab=box

Chris Young again. Down by a run, Farrell goes to the B squad relievers: http://m.mlb.com/gameday/blue-jays-vs-red-sox/2016/04/17/447050?#game=447050,game_state=final,game_tab=box

Farrell's Mechanical Bullpen - uses Taz for one out in the 7th. Goes to Koji in the 8th - slow with the hook. http://m.mlb.com/gameday/blue-jays-vs-red-sox/2016/04/18/447057?#game=447057,game_state=final,game_tab=box

Chris Young again does nothing against a RH starter. Layne left in to pitch to a righty, but then Tazawa implodes. Mechanical Bullpen/Tazawa abuse? Draw your own conclusion: http://m.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-blue-jays/2016/05/28/447595?#game=447595,game_state=final,game_tab=box

I'd be curious to see the game thread comments. (There were other losses I didn't list here - and these are just bad outcomes, not bad decisions.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

I didn't see much of a plan in terms of how to deal with Gausman. At the very least, they could have tried to run the pitch count up and get to Baltimore's pen.

If anything, games like this illustrate how important it is for Farrell to optimize those games he can have an impact on - e.g. the game before this one where he let Hanigan bat because he was "running a good game." Not all of those decisions will have an impact on those individual games, but with 17 games left, making consistently good decisions might net an extra win. It's entirely possible that extra win will be needed.

Absent hidden injuries, it's the time to play for every game.

You don't build a "plan" for a night like last night. They ran into a really good pitcher having a really good night. He threw 60 strikes for 80% of his four seam fastballs. 5 of 7 sinkers were for strikes, 9 of 15 curves and even 10 of 22 splitters. He threw one changeup for a ball. That's 70% of his pitches overall thrown for strikes.

He was consistently in the zone all night and was really hard to make good contact against while doing it. There was no "driving up his pitch count." He even stayed out of the middle of the zone and was mostly down. Blaming Farrell for Gausman having an excellent start is asinine.

 

[Broda]

I wonder if he'd like to have any games back to revisit his decisions. Did all those times he attempted to steal an extra out from a starter pay off? (I honestly don't know why clubs don't identify their 2 likeliest division rivals and go into "quasi-playoff" mode against them earlier in the season.)

The Jays:

Chris Young gets "warmed up" against a RHP, leaves 4 on. http://m.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-blue-jays/2016/04/10/446942?#game=446942,game_state=final,game_tab=box

Chris Young again: http://m.mlb.com/gameday/blue-jays-vs-red-sox/2016/04/17/447050?#game=447050,game_state=final,game_tab=box

Farrell's Mechanical Bullpen - uses Taz for one out in the 7th. Goes to Koji in the 8th - slow with the hook. http://m.mlb.com/gameday/blue-jays-vs-red-sox/2016/04/18/447057?#game=447057,game_state=final,game_tab=box

Chris Young. Mechanical Bullpen/Tazawa abuse? Draw your own conclusion: http://m.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-blue-jays/2016/05/28/447595?#game=447595,game_state=final,game_tab=box

I'd be curious to see the game thread comments. (There were other losses I didn't list here - and these are just bad outcomes, not bad decisions.

There's quite a few games the Sox would like to have back.

The May game in Toronto that ended on a shaw error (his fall down range cost them a few runs earlier in the game when a routine Donaldson ground ball down the line got by him).

- the Game in Anaheim that should've been a game ending double play.

- David Price's 8th inning in seattle, nuff said.

- The 1-0 game against Oakland labor day weekend.

- the last 2 losses to Tampa

- Detroit when Mookie didn't get a good read on Miggy's HR that bounced off the wall.

- The Detroit bullpen meltdown game when Taz was just atrocious.

There's a couple others I'd have to revisit. Not saying these are Farrell's fault, just the Sox have found a way to lose some easy games.

 

[BestGameEvah]

I didn't see much of a plan in terms of how to deal with Gausman. At the very least, they could have tried to run the pitch count up and get to Baltimore's pen.

He was brilliant getting ahead! You're suggesting they take a few more pitches?
He threw a first-pitch strike to 21 of the 29 batters he faced. Four of Gausman's past five starts have been scoreless outings of at least six innings. Over that span, Gausman's ERA is a 0.82, as he has allowed just three runs over 33 innings.
He credits his breaking ball, which he states has come a long way the last 5 or 6 games, as being a pitch he could throw off the plate with success. He's reading hitters better, his rhythm is better, he's not shaking off as much recently and has a history of feeling better as the year goes on.
Of course they're playing for every game. Player were sick they could not score for Rick. Sick.

 

[JohntheBaptist]

You don't build a "plan" for a night like last night. They ran into a really good pitcher having a really good night. He threw 60 strikes for 80% of his four seam fastballs. 5 of 7 sinkers were...

Forget it, Jake. It's Hot Take City.

 

[BestGameEvah]

There's quite a few games the Sox would like to have back.

The May game in Toronto that ended on a shaw error (his fall down range cost them a few runs earlier in the game when a routine Donaldson ground ball down the line got by him).

- the Game in Anaheim that should've been a game ending double play.

- David Price's 8th inning in seattle, nuff said.

- The 1-0 game against Oakland labor day weekend.

- the last 2 losses to Tampa

- Detroit when Mookie didn't get a good read on Miggy's HR that bounced off the wall.

- The Detroit bullpen meltdown game when Taz was just atrocious.

There's a couple others I'd have to revisit. Not saying these are Farrell's fault, just the Sox have found a way to lose some easy games.

As is true of EVERY team.

 

[rembrat]

You don't build a "plan" for a night like last night.

Well of course you can. It's as easy as identifing your likeliest division rival in friggin' April before injuries/trades/player performances and playing each game as if it were the playoffs.

Ah, yes, the crazies are back and it's so nice and comfy like a fuzzy sweater on a crisp autumn day.

 

[Rovin Romine]

You don't build a "plan" for a night like last night. They ran into a really good pitcher having a really good night. He threw 60 strikes for 80% of his four seam fastballs. 5 of 7 sinkers were for strikes, 9 of 15 curves and even 10 of 22 splitters. He threw one changeup for a ball. That's 70% of his pitches overall thrown for strikes.

He was consistently in the zone all night and was really hard to make good contact against while doing it. There was no "driving up his pitch count." He even stayed out of the middle of the zone and was mostly down. Blaming Farrell for Gausman having an excellent start is asinine.

You'll notice I didn't blame Farrell for last night.

I specifically said, "If anything, games like this illustrate how important it is for Farrell to optimize those games he can have an impact on." What do you think that means?

 

[Broda]

As is true of EVERY team.

Yes, but there's a reason the sox are awful in low scoring and one run games.

They've also just given a few games away. The bad teams don't care, the good teams those games can haunt come Oct. 1ish.

 

[Rovin Romine]

Well of course you can. It's as easy as identifing your likeliest division rival in friggin' April before injuries/trades/player performances and playing each game as if it were the playoffs.

Ah, yes, the crazies are back and it's so nice and comfy like a fuzzy sweater on a crisp autumn day.

I guess, if you were to attempt such a crazy thing, you might begin by looking at the rosters of each club and projecting likely player performance. Better rosters =s more likelihood of good performance.

But I guess you're saying that going into the season there was absolutely no way to identify the Jays as more dangerous than TB.

PS - I said "quasi-playoff mode." By which I meant something less than full playoff mode, but more than just "it's an early season game and I want to try out a new player in a high-leverage situation, just to see how they respond."

 

[bankshot1]

The Sox have lost so many close games for mostly 1 reason. Their late inning BP has until very recently, sucked and gave away too many winnable games.

Last night they lost a pitcher's duel. Thats baseball.

 

[Broda]

The Sox have lost so many close games for mostly 1 reason. Their late inning BP has until very recently, sucked and gave away too many winnable games.

Last night they lost a pitcher's duel. Thats baseball.

Yeah i was more disappointed with the lack of discipline in the late innings. Of the last 7 outs, only Mookie really ended on a ball in the strike zone.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

The Sox have lost so many close games for mostly 1 reason. Their late inning BP has until very recently, sucked and gave away too many winnable games.

Last night they lost a pitcher's duel. Thats baseball.

There are other reasons for the close losses. Their hitting with the bases loaded this season has been abysmal: .629 OPS in such situations as opposed to .818 overall. And that's despite .860 OPS with RISP, which shows even more pressing when given a bases loaded situation.

Team OPS is down 37 points in the second half compared to the first.

In B-Ref's Late and Close category, the Sox are putting up a woeful 681 OPS, much lower than in every other situation.

So maybe the pen has had a lot to do with it, but their situational hitting has been bad as well. They obviously have a lot of offensive talent, but too often it disappears when needed. I'm guessing the younger guys press in such situations and forget to let the game come to them, but that's mere speculation and in any case those figures must improve for any hope of a postseason run, or even appearance.

 

[tims4wins]

There are other reasons for the close losses. Their hitting with the bases loaded this season has been abysmal: .629 OPS in such situations as opposed to .818 overall. And that's despite .860 OPS with RISP, which shows even more pressing when given a bases loaded situation.

Team OPS is down 37 points in the second half compared to the first.

In B-Ref's Late and Close category, the Sox are putting up a woeful 681 OPS, much lower than in every other situation.

So maybe the pen has had a lot to do with it, but their situational hitting has been bad as well. They obviously have a lot of offensive talent, but too often it disappears when needed. I'm guessing the younger guys press in such situations and forget to let the game come to them, but that's mere speculation and in any case those figures must improve for any hope of a postseason run, or even appearance.

Yep, definitely a combination. When the Sox are tied after...

4 innings: 13-13
5 innings: 8-12
6 innings: 5-10
7 innings: 4-8
8 innings: 5-8

So basically either the bullpen fails, the offense fails, or both. For a good team, they don't play very well in close and late situations. Seems like a bad omen for the playoffs, but I guess we'll see.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Yep, definitely a combination. When the Sox are tied after...

5 innings: 13-13
6 innings: 8-12
7 innings: 5-10
8 innings: 4-8
9 innings: 5-8

So basically either the bullpen fails, the offense fails, or both. For a good team, they don't play very well in close and late situations. Seems like a bad omen for the playoffs, but I guess we'll see.

The bolded doesn't really square with their extra inning record this season, which is 6-4. Unless those are supposed to be their records in games tied entering X inning.

 

[bankshot1]

I said "mostly", and yes there are lots of reasons for close losses. The bases loaded thing is a weird anomaly, and I'm not going to try and quantify "clutchiness" but for a team that can get so many guys on its frustrating they strand so many of them. But i'm still sticking with the lack of a consistent late inning BP as the "mostly" reason as to why the Sox have so many close losses. I'm hoping a healthy Koji moves them back to the mean in that regard.

 

[tims4wins]

The bolded doesn't really square with their extra inning record this season, which is 6-4. Unless those are supposed to be their records in games tied entering X inning.

Ah yes, it is the start of each inning. So bump it up by one inning for each line.

 

[grimshaw]

I wonder if he'd like to have any games back to revisit his decisions. Did all those times he attempted to steal an extra out from a starter pay off? (I honestly don't know why clubs don't identify their 2 likeliest division rivals and go into "quasi-playoff" mode against them earlier in the season.)

The Jays:

Chris Young gets "warmed up" against a RHP, leaves 4 on. http://m.mlb.com/gameday/red-sox-vs-blue-jays/2016/04/10/446942?#game=446942,game_state=final,game_tab=box

Chris Young again.

The Chris Young thing is kind of a poor example when Brock Holt was your every day left field option. It's defensible to roll the dice that you can outperform your well below average left fielder not accustomed to playing every day. They had a ridiculous stretch of only playing vs. right handers. I think it was something like Happ in game 12 and then nothing for weeks because the teams they faced had very few left handed starters. It at least showed some semblance of big picture thinking.

You have to use your bench to give guys breathers.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Yeah i was more disappointed with the lack of discipline in the late innings. Of the last 7 outs, only Mookie really ended on a ball in the strike zone.

I've seen you post this three times and it's still a silly point. The pitches were moving like crazy. The pitchers were using great deception. So yeah, no shit, the balls weren't in the strike zone. Sort of like every K Koji has ever gotten with his splitter. The O's pitching was just great last night. Overanalysis of it reveals nothing more than that.

 

[Rovin Romine]

The Chris Young thing is kind of a poor example when Brock Holt was your every day left field option. It's defensible to roll the dice that you can outperform your well below average left fielder not accustomed to playing every day. They had a ridiculous stretch of only playing vs. right handers. I think it was something like Happ in game 12 and then nothing for weeks because the teams they faced had very few left handed starters. It at least showed some semblance of big picture thinking.

You have to use your bench to give guys breathers.

Yeah, no argument on your abstract points. I guess it's just unfortunate for us that in those particular situations it didn't work out for JF - you know, that he couldn't have subbed in Young in blowouts, or PH for him with men on, or against RHP pitchers he had some historical success with, etc. (Maybe he did on the last part - I have no idea, but little faith it's the case.)

He did get Young regular playing time, and Young's been awesome overall this year.

If you're up (or down) there's something to be said for using sub-optimal matchups if you have a larger goal in mind. But we have a very finite season left. And it's a very tight one. In no small part due to Farrell's choices (good and bad) over the long haul. So lets see what he does with it.

 

[Broda]

I've seen you post this three times and it's still a silly point. The pitches were moving like crazy. The pitchers were using great deception. So yeah, no shit, the balls weren't in the strike zone. Sort of like every K Koji has ever gotten with his splitter. The O's pitching was just great last night. Overanalysis of it reveals nothing more than that.

Most of them were fastballs. And not even close.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Most of them were fastballs. And not even close.

Britton has put together a Cy Young year by throwing those "fastballs" not even close.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Most of them were fastballs. And not even close.

Not all fastballs are the same, we aren't talking about Joe Kelly's straight as an arrow 98. The fastballs from Britton and Gausman not only come in at 97 but they move a ton.

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

You'll notice I didn't blame Farrell for last night.

I specifically said, "If anything, games like this illustrate how important it is for Farrell to optimize those games he can have an impact on." What do you think that means?

When you precede that argument with this...

I didn't see much of a plan in terms of how to deal with Gausman. At the very least, they could have tried to run the pitch count up and get to Baltimore's pen.

...it pretty easily reads as a game you are pinning on Farrell and/or the coaching staff. If you meant to separate those thoughts, you probably should have done something to indicate that they weren't related.

 

[Rovin Romine]

When you precede that argument with this...
...it pretty easily reads as a game you are pinning on Farrell and/or the coaching staff. If you meant to separate those thoughts, you probably should have done something to indicate that they weren't related.

Fair enough.

 

[troparra]

Was looking at how Baltimore made up for the run differential issue compared to Boston by looking at games sorted by runs allowed.

Baltimore is better overall when the other team scores 3 or fewer runs (overall record of 53-9) compared to Boston (overall record of 55-18). Boston played 11 more games like this, but it resulted in only 2 more wins.
Boston is better when allowing 4 or more runs (overall record 26-46 vs. Bal's 22-57).

The biggest difference is when the teams allow 3 runs (see bolded below). Baltimore also has three more shutouts than Boston.

W-L record (win pct) in games when allowing:
6+ runs
Bal, 10-37, .213
Bos, 11-29, .275

5 runs
Bal, 8-10, .444
Bos, 6-7, .462

4 runs
Bal, 4-10, .286
Bos, 9-10, .474

3 runs
Bal, 15-4, .789
Bos, 15-11, .577

2 runs
Bal, 20-3, .870
Bos, 25-5, .833

1 run
Bal, 10-2, .833
Bos, 10-2, .833

0 runs
Bal, 8-0, 1.000
Bos, 5-0, 1.00


Note: I don't know if this means anything.

 

[NickEsasky]

Most of them were fastballs. And not even close.

Not to pile on but the guy throws his sinker in the high 90s with sick movement. Imagine if Derek Lowe threw in the high 90s instead of the low 90s.

 

[Larry Gardner]

The Sox have lost so many close games for mostly 1 reason. Their late inning BP has until very recently, sucked and gave away too many winnable games.

Last night they lost a pitcher's duel. Thats baseball.

Guys, I don't post much, and I don't have any stats to back my response up, but I think there is another reason and it's a big one: lack of situational hitting---
X swinging for the fences, it seems like almost every pitch. He did take a few pitches in his 2nd AB, IIRC.
Travis swinging for the fences, and swinging at almost every pitch.
Leon swinging at really bad pitches-- I can't remember the AB, but it was way low and outside.
JBJ swinging at a lot of pitches....

Whatever happened to this team being selective, getting their pitch to hit, or even trying to hit a line drive to the opposite field? The O's bash, and they have power hitters all through their lineup, and their M.O. is the 3-run HR, but they hit a lot of them.

We really need to put base hits back to back and quit the striking out and the popups....could they have scored a run if they were more selective last night?

 

[Soxfan in Fla]

Guys, I don't post much, and I don't have any stats to back my response up, but I think there is another reason and it's a big one: lack of situational hitting---
X swinging for the fences, it seems like almost every pitch. He did take a few pitches in his 2nd AB, IIRC.
Travis swinging for the fences, and swinging at almost every pitch.
Leon swinging at really bad pitches-- I can't remember the AB, but it was way low and outside.
JBJ swinging at a lot of pitches....

Whatever happened to this team being selective, getting their pitch to hit, or even trying to hit a line drive to the opposite field? The O's bash, and they have power hitters all through their lineup, and their M.O. is the 3-run HR, but they hit a lot of them.

We really need to put base hits back to back and quit the striking out and the popups....could they have scored a run if they were more selective last night?

They did it against the Yankees. lol.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

There are other reasons for the close losses. Their hitting with the bases loaded this season has been abysmal: .629 OPS in such situations as opposed to .818 overall. And that's despite .860 OPS with RISP, which shows even more pressing when given a bases loaded situation.

I don't mean to pick on you because others have mentioned the bases loaded problem too but this is a bit comical. There have been 152 PAs this season with the bases loaded and the Sox have indeed been woeful with an OPS of 627 (25th in the Majors). But in 413 PAs with runners on 1st and 2nd they're first in baseball in OPS with 864. What gives? The guy on 3rd makes the batter nervous?

Nope - in 207 PAs with runners on 1st and 3rd their OPS is 1003 (3rd) and 142 with runners on 2nd and 3rd they've achieved 870 (7th).

As you've said they have a great OPS with runners in scoring position (now it's 861 - 2nd overall to the Rockies - in 1559 PAs). But looking further it's even more impressive how productive they've been in those situations. They've converted those PAs into 563 RBI (1st in baseball and 20 ahead of the 2nd place Rockies) for a conversion rate of 36.1%, 2nd to Col. In the far more 'pressured' situation of RISP with 2 outs they're 1st in OPS with 835 (SD(!) is 2nd way back at 790) and have the most RBI by a landslide (232 vs Tor in 2nd at 195) and highest conversion rate (32.9%) from 706 PAs.

The bases loaded thing is a statistical anomaly and nothing more. Any inability to hit in that situation has not been enough to impede their dominance in the far more prevalent RISP situation (of which it is a subset) and so therefore has not impacted their ability to win close games. Or to put it another way there is no link between bases loaded situations and winning close games that doesn't also exist between RISP and winning close games and the sample size of the former is 1/10th that of the latter.

I also believe the 1-run game stat is overemphasised (wasn't last night's 2-run win in a walk-off much more 'clutch' than the average 1-run game? Or what about extra-innings games - aren't they closer contests than 1-run games even if they end with a 3-run margin?) Full disclosure: adding in multi-run differences in extra inning and walk-off games doesn't change the equation - their 16-22 record would change to a slightly less frustrating 20-25 - but 12 of their 1-run losses came on the road where the other team didn't get their 'fair ups' to try to increase the score whilst only 7 of their 1-run wins occurred at home where they didn't get that chance. Of course if each team played out the game with incentive to score more runs only a portion of those would become 2+ run wins and losses but it would cut further into their seeming deficit.

The point is though I love baseball in part because I love a game where statistical analysis lends significant insight into how it's played and how the team can play better, it is also far too easy to see problems that aren't there when too much weight is given to occurrences that are more likely random chance. I believe this team matches up well with anyone but the Cubs and would be no less likely to win a close game if and when it comes down to it. Coupled with their higher likelihood to win a blowout, I like their chances to make the WS next month.

 

[joe dokes]

To follow up on the above post....

Last night and Sunday bring to mind the team back to early in the season when the rotation was a (more) complete mess (no real Price, no Rodriguez, Kelly, bad Buchholz, etc) and they won a boatload of games despite disaster starts. Not all one run games are the same, so the category of "one run games" is as useful as "games on Tuesday." (Others have tried to break it down better in terms of "tied after" or "ahead after".) Just as some analysts think that a team's record in blowouts is more indicative of a team's "quality," I think the team's ability to win games when the starter can't go even an effective 5 innings is a better indication of something good, even if I can;t identify it.

 

[judyb]

Yeah, it's not a bad thing to blow some opportunities to improve their record in 1 run games by scoring more runs than they need.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

Clearly Price and Porcello have sealed the "no. 1 and no. 2" slots (not neccesarily in that order...) for a playoff rotation. But other than those two all 3 other options for grabbing the all important "no. 3" spot and the occasionally but hopefully not needed "no. 4" spot are still up in the air. Pom, Edro and Clay all tossed up turds the last time through the order.... it's like nobody wants them.
If the season ended today, I'd still likely put Pom as the 3 and EdRo as the 4 with Clay in the pen and long relief... but several more starts for those 3 roles to be assigned.

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Clearly Price and Porcello have sealed the "no. 1 and no. 2" slots (not neccesarily in that order...) for a playoff rotation. But other than those two all 3 other options for grabbing the all important "no. 3" spot and the occasionally but hopefully not needed "no. 4" spot are still up in the air. Pom, Edro and Clay all tossed up turds the last time through the order.... it's like nobody wants them.
If the season ended today, I'd still likely put Pom as the 3 and EdRo as the 4 with Clay in the pen and long relief... but several more starts for those 3 roles to be assigned.

I think that's fair. ERod has more upside IMO but probably a higher chance of crapping the bed as well. For the #3 I think it's more important that you put someone in there that maximises the chance that your offense can win the game. They're most likely going to face Cleveland and unless Salazar makes a timely recovery would likely mean Trevor Bauer whom the Sox knocked around as a starter in May (giving Joe Kelly his last win as a starter) and as a reliever on a cold day in April (game 1 of the season). He's also had 2 forgettable outtings his last two times out though he's been better than Tomlin.

Against someone like that you just want your starter to go 5 1/3 to 6 innings and give up 2 or 3 runs which is basically what Drew gave them 7 times out in a row before Tuesday's minor meltdown. Hopefully that was just lack of 'sharpness' after his longish layoff.

Comparing ERod and Pomeranz's last 8 starts (since the beginning of August) the game scores (shown from best game to worst with this week's games being the worst for both) show the story of ERod's greater upside but Drew's better consistency:

Rodriguez: 83 72 67 67 59 39 37 25 -> avg 56.0
Pomeranz: 65 60 58 58 56 56 52 29 -> avg 54.3

and for comparison Cleveland's likely 3/4 duo:

T Bauer: 75 67 65 64 48 41 38 33 -> avg 53.9
J Tomlin: 62 57 56 27 25 24 21 18 -> avg 36.3

Game 1 looks delicious:
DPrice: 84 79 65 65 64 59 57 35 -> avg 63.5
Kluber: 75 73 67 63 59 59 58 53 -> avg 63.4

whilst Game 2 looks a bit more advantageous if we can avoid Carrasco's peak performance:
Porcello: 76 71 69 65 63 63 60 57 -> avg 65.5
Carrasco: 83 76 62 57 51 48 33 28 -> avg 54.8

 

[uk_sox_fan]

Besides Porcello, Price and Kluber, there are 3 other starters among the AL contenders with average GS's above 60 in their last 8 starts:

Tanaka: 78, 74, 69, 64, 62, 59, 55, 52 -> avg. 64.1
Verlander: 72, 70, 66, 64, 63, 63, 58, 46 -> avg. 62.8
Gausman: 79, 74, 72, 60, 56, 53, 51, 49 -> avg. 61.8

 

[Broda]

I think that's fair. ERod has more upside IMO but probably a higher chance of crapping the bed as well. For the #3 I think it's more important that you put someone in there that maximises the chance that your offense can win the game. They're most likely going to face Cleveland and unless Salazar makes a timely recovery would likely mean Trevor Bauer whom the Sox knocked around as a starter in May (giving Joe Kelly his last win as a starter) and as a reliever on a cold day in April (game 1 of the season). He's also had 2 forgettable outtings his last two times out though he's been better than Tomlin.

Against someone like that you just want your starter to go 5 1/3 to 6 innings and give up 2 or 3 runs which is basically what Drew gave them 7 times out in a row before Tuesday's minor meltdown. Hopefully that was just lack of 'sharpness' after his longish layoff.

Comparing ERod and Pomeranz's last 8 starts (since the beginning of August) the game scores (shown from best game to worst with this week's games being the worst for both) show the story of ERod's greater upside but Drew's better consistency:

Rodriguez: 83 72 67 67 59 39 37 25 -> avg 56.0
Pomeranz: 65 60 58 58 56 56 52 29 -> avg 54.3

and for comparison Cleveland's likely 3/4 duo:

T Bauer: 75 67 65 64 48 41 38 33 -> avg 53.9
J Tomlin: 62 57 56 27 25 24 21 18 -> avg 36.3

Game 1 looks delicious:
DPrice: 84 79 65 65 64 59 57 35 -> avg 63.5
Kluber: 75 73 67 63 59 59 58 53 -> avg 63.4

whilst Game 2 looks a bit more advantageous if we can avoid Carrasco's peak performance:
Porcello: 76 71 69 65 63 63 60 57 -> avg 65.5
Carrasco: 83 76 62 57 51 48 33 28 -> avg 54.8

I know he's not exactly the pre AS guy, but man this shows how much freaking National League ball has hurt the Sox season (Wright).

 

[czar]

A lot of the ERod/Pom (or Clay) discussion comes down to whether or not you believe either Pom's post-ASB 19% HR/FB% or ERod's 7% HR/FB% are skillful.

If you think they are "controlling" their HR rate, then ERod has pretty obviously the best numbers (ex: by FIP). If you believe that they should tend towards league average (ex: xFIP) then Pom's "non-HR" peripherals are far better. Buchholz is somewhere in between on both fronts.

 

[tims4wins]

Random note but kind of hard to believe that was the Sox first walkoff HR of the season - for a team this good