How long will Chaim last?

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I'm not punting--or not punting--a season. I am watching how the Red Sox have proceeded and saying, "It's obvious what they are up to." To my reading, your post indicates that you do not support thir plan. And what I'm saying is, that's fine! But it's absurd (in the absurdist sense of things, not in the judgemental sense of things) to evaluate Bloom based upon how he's executing a plan others want him to pursue rather than on how he's executing the plan he is actually pursuing.

Chaim Bloom is in charge of the Boston Red Sox organization, which includes the Major League team. His plan seems to bolster the minor leagues (good!) but he seems to be ignoring or at the very least not have a good plan for the ML roster for three out of four seasons. This is a problem because their team is bad and boring and just not very fun to watch. We can talk all day about how revenues will decrease (maybe?) but at the end of the day, I'm sure it's not going to really hurt Henry's bottom line. The Sox are a money making machine and that's not going to change anytime soon and when the Sox are good, I'm sure those fans that left will come back.

So the question is, who cares? Well, I for one, care. I like when the Red Sox are good. I like when the Red Sox are competitive when it comes to signing free agents. I like when the Red Sox have a smart, imaginative GM who can bring in players that are overlooked by other organizations. I understand that not every player is a good guy--and at the end of the day, it probably doesn't matter too much--but I also like when the Sox don't antagonize their fan base by promoting bigotted shitheads. In the last four years, the Sox seems to have done a lot of things wrong and when you've gotten used to a franchise that (mostly) does things the "right way", it sucks when they bumblefuck their way through another season all while the owners sit in their boxes saying nothing.

 

[chrisfont9]

Once again, not on this team any more. He's in Philly. Live in the now. He sucked anyways.

Schreiber. I'm an idiot just finishing my coffee.

 

[Smiling Joe Hesketh]

Chaim Bloom is in charge of the Boston Red Sox organization, which includes the Major League team. His plan seems to bolster the minor leagues (good!) but he seems to be ignoring or at the very least not have a good plan for the ML roster for three out of four seasons. This is a problem because their team is bad and boring and just not very fun to watch. We can talk all day about how revenues will decrease (maybe?) but at the end of the day, I'm sure it's not going to really hurt Henry's bottom line. The Sox are a money making machine and that's not going to change anytime soon and when the Sox are good, I'm sure those fans that left will come back.

So the question is, who cares? Well, I for one, care. I like when the Red Sox are good. I like when the Red Sox are competitive when it comes to signing free agents. I like when the Red Sox have a smart, imaginative GM who can bring in players that are overlooked by other organizations. I understand that not every player is a good guy--and at the end of the day, it probably doesn't matter too much--but I also like when the Sox don't antagonize their fan base by promoting bigotted shitheads. In the last four years, the Sox seems to have done a lot of things wrong and when you've gotten used to a franchise that (mostly) does things the "right way", it sucks when they bumblefuck their way through another season all while the owners sit in their boxes saying nothing.

The Dermody nonsense is similar to the Bruins idiotic decision to sign Mitchell Miller: a profoundly short-sighted and stupid action that provided zero tangible benefit and left the organization open to scorn and criticism, all of which was deserved.

At least the Bruins quickly released Miller. The Sox held onto Dermody.

 

[TomRicardo]

The Dermody nonsense is similar to the Bruins idiotic decision to sign Mitchell Miller: a profoundly short-sighted and stupid action that provided zero tangible benefit and left the organization open to scorn and criticism, all of which was deserved.

At least the Bruins quickly released Miller. The Sox held onto Dermody.

It sucks when you start looking at but it would probably be for the better at this point if Fenway Sports Group sold the Sox. They did so much good but it just clearly doesn't see the Red Sox as an asset worth investing in or building an identity around. This is the third most expensive ticket in baseball but only mid range in attendance. NESN ratings are way down. Maybe running a mediocre baseball team has a better ROI nowadays I am not sure.

Edit - You can really see the difference between Kraft and FSG now. While the Pats are rebuilding Kraft has stepped up and worked to try to address issues.

 

[jezza1918]

Look at the 2003 and 2004 rosters, there is no rookie that made any substantial impact on either one of those teams. Maybe you can argue Youkilis, but he was a 25th man at best. Epstein didn't go crazy with big name free agents (Foulke was one big ticket FA) in those early years, he used the Sox minor league system to trade for starters (Schilling), he signed good players who ended up playing great (Ortiz, Mueller, Millar, etc). He didn't fall in love with players and jettisoned them those didn't fit in (Giambi).

Going back even further, Dan Duquette threaded this needle really well too. In the early 90s the Sox were even worse than they are now, but Duquette was able to bring the major league team up while improving the minor league organization.

Yes, baseball has changed and maybe the job is more difficult, but that's what Bloom signed up for. The problem with him is that he doesn't use the trade avenue a lot, and when he does he either gets meh value or he loses. The best deals he's made is for Pivetta and McGuire, which if getting a fifth starter and backup catcher are the best you've done in four years, maybe you should try to figure it out. Three of his minor league pitchers were taken with in the Rule 5 draft last year. Obviously they were considered good enough that a GM would gamble that they can stay on a ML roster and not ruin the team. Why did Bloom lose them for nothing? He couldn't have made a deal or two to get something, anything, for Ward or Song, etc? That's the sort of thing that I talk about when I say that Bloom lacks imagination and intelligence.

His big ticket FA acquisition was Story, who was damaged goods and has played a grand total of 94 games. Yoshida looks really good, so maybe that will be his David Ortiz, IDK. His drafts have been good, I guess, but Mayer bumps up his grade a lot but that's like getting a great mark on your chemistry lab assignments when you have Albert Einstein as a partner.

Sorry, think we were coming at it from different POVs - I was specifically referring to the state of the farm system and how I just cant imagine that was rated any worse when Theo jumped on board than it was when Bloom did, which is what I understood your takeaway to be in the post I was responding too.
I mostly agree regarding trades, but when you have a pretty mediocre farm system without depth it's tough garner too much value in return. If he had gone "all in" at deadline in 2021 for example, and traded a top prospect like Casas, Bello, or Mayer maybe he generates a bigger name in return for a slightly increased chance at winning it all, but with a major hit to potential for more sustainable success down the line? And to be honest, there is definitely merit to doing exactly that...but it does come at a cost. I think all of this convo really goes back to the threading the needle thing being incredibly difficult to do...because you're trying to accomplish two things that on some level conflict with each other. I'd give Bloom a pretty good grade for one side of that conflict (the farm system), but a shite grade for the major league level (I'm not a sewer so I couldnt take the needle/thread metaphor any further).
All that said, the Dermody situation really hovers over all of this, and I have ZERO defense for that.

 

[chrisfont9]

Outside of Meyer the farm is way worse than it was 2019. They probably around the same now

Want to show your homework there?
2019: ranked 30th
https://www.milb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-overall-30-21-304615150

2023: all over the map but I see 16th
https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2023-preseason

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

This thread should be fired.
Normally rational thinking posters here have lost their mind.
It's not criticism.... sorry... it's entitled fanboyism crap. Emotions getting the better of everyone here.
If you criticize (is someone really saying that Bloom should have gotten something of value from Connor fucking Seabold here!?!?!?!) Bloom for poor roster construction then I'm sorry, but it's your burden to provide some thought what he could REASONABLY have done.... .you can't then back into a "I'm not a paid a million bucks for those decisions". That's fanboyism. I have yet to read any reasonable critique of Bloom.*

*I should amend this to say that there have been but they've been with an understanding of the payroll situation (fair or not) and a long term view.... and those guys get called "Bloom Apologists".

 

[TomRicardo]

Want to show your homework there?
2019: ranked 30th
https://www.milb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-overall-30-21-304615150

2023: all over the map but I see 16th
https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2023-preseason

It is the same guys. Outside of Meyer and Yorke there is no new blood. The same guys in the system just got better. Bloom hasn't brought anyone in why he lost a massive amount of amount of talent.

Edit - Unless you think losing and drafting high first round picks is a talent?

 

[Petagine in a Bottle]

It is the same guys. Outside of Meyer and Yorke there is no new blood. The same guys in the system just got better. Bloom hasn't brought anyone in why he lost a massive amount of amount of talent.

Yeah, this. Top “Bloom guys” are Mayer, Bleis, Romero, Yorke, Anthony, and Jordan. The horrible system that DD left him with included Casas, Bello, Duran, Rafaela, Mata, Walter, Paulino, Gonzalez, Perales, etc.

 

[mauf]

Fangraphs seems like a fair, unbiased measuring stick -- they had the Sox at 81.4 wins.

In the preseason poll 85% of the board picked the Sox to finish .500 or better, and 53% had them at 85 wins or more. So in fairness, people here thought they’d be a better than a .500 team. And very few people thought they’d have a losing record.

Obviously there’s still a lot of season left.

The Vegas over/under was 77.5 or 78.5, depending on which book and when you placed your bet. (I took the over; my expectation was in line with the Fangraphs projection.)

I’m not sure where the expectations here for 85+ wins came from — they weren’t very good last year and only made marginal upgrades.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

It is the same guys. Outside of Meyer and Yorke there is no new blood. The same guys in the system just got better. Bloom hasn't brought anyone in why he lost a massive amount of amount of talent.

Bleis, Drohan, Anthony, Romero, Valdez. That's five of SoxProspects top 10 in the system right now who were acquired by Bloom. The only hold-overs from Dombrowski's regime in that top 10 are Rafaela, Perales, and Mata.

 

[joe dokes]

Chaim Bloom is in charge of the Boston Red Sox organization, which includes the Major League team. His plan seems to bolster the minor leagues (good!) but he seems to be ignoring or at the very least not have a good plan for the ML roster for three out of four seasons.

There's another option. He does have a reasonable plan for the Major League team, but it has not worked for the last 1.42 seasons.

 

[BringBackMo]

Yeah, this. Top “Bloom guys” are Mayer, Bleis, Romero, Yorke, Anthony, and Jordan. The horrible system that DD left him with included Casas, Bello, Duran, Rafaela, Mata, Walter, Paulino, Gonzalez, Perales, etc.

It's almost like your point is that it takes a long time for prospects to develop, and that we should therefore be cautious about making snap judgements about the state of things.

 

[sezwho]

Lock the thread.

Also, when did contending in 2024 get pushed to 2025? I see a LOT of 2025 now. I thought that 2022 and 2023 were supposed to be the bridge years. Oh and 2021 too.

Ha, I was holding out hope during the hot streak but already getting the ‘25 heebie jeebies too

*I should amend this to say that there have been but they've been with an understanding of the payroll situation (fair or not) and a long term view.... and those guys get called "Bloom Apologists".

I get the fanboy labels and I also understand the call to show work, but don’t feel duty bound to re litigate every choice (I would have had kike in center and proactively offered X 7/175 and think 1 year deals in a 5+ year rebuild don’t have to go together for example) to hold the belief this run of ugly 500 baseball was not inevitable. Bloom is not Thanos (though some of the haters may be shocked)

 

[TomRicardo]

Bleis, Drohan, Anthony, Romero, Valdez. That's five of SoxProspects top 10 in the system right now who were acquired by Bloom. The only hold-overs from Dombrowski's regime in that top 10 are Rafaela, Perales, and Mata.

I missed Bleis who was international pick. The rest of those guys did not figure into the Red Sox prospect team ranking this year. The ranking is probably going to go down with Casas and Bello graduating back down to a bottom third team. *shrugging*

The worst system became an average system and now is a bad system again even though the Sox are below .500 and lost two franchise players? That Bloom sure is something.

 

[ngruz25]

Again, people are making arguments in a vacuum without considering reality. What "warm body" should the Sox have signed? Elvis Andrus, who currently has a 48 OPS+? Aledmys Diaz, who currently has a 53 OPS+? Those are the "warm bodies" you're talking about and I don't think anyone here would be calling those great signings.

I think these threads have gone round and round on this same point, but productive players can be acquired through trade as well.

I'm looking longingly at Ha-Seong Kim and his stellar defense...

 

[Blizzard of 1978]

Everybody talks about Chaim Bloom,but what about O'Halloran or Romero? They been here much longer working with the Red Sox farm system?

 

[chrisfont9]

I missed Bleis who was international pick. The rest of those guys did not figure into the Red Sox prospect team ranking this year. The ranking is probably going to go down with Casas and Bello graduating back down to a bottom third team. *shrugging*

The worst system became an average system and now is a bad system again even though the Sox are below .500 and lost two franchise players? That Bloom sure is something.

You saying the system is bad doesn’t make it true. Also why a few bad weeks of results at the major league level is part of this consideration is not clear. If your point is what have those kids done for me lately, the answer is that they’re currently keeping the starting rotation afloat. Oh and saving the team from a disastrous situation in CF. Also does Connor Wong count? I’m not sure what you think the system should be — we aren’t the Rays or Braves, but neither are 27 other teams.

 

[TomRicardo]

You saying the system is bad doesn’t make it true. Also why a few bad weeks of results at the major league level is part of this consideration is not clear. If your point is what have those kids done for me lately, the answer is that they’re currently keeping the starting rotation afloat. Oh and saving the team from a disastrous situation in CF. Also does Connor Wong count? I’m not sure what you think the system should be — we aren’t the Rays or Braves, but neither are 27 other teams.

No I think you are right there, "bad" was not the right word. Less than average or subpar would have been better. Point is there isn't a lot of answers in the farm system that you would assume to have after playing under .500 baseball for four years and ditching multiple perennial all stars.

Once again I ask you to compare where this team is now as oppose to 2015-2016 the last time they had a sustained bad streak.

 

[chrisfont9]

No I think you are right there, "bad" was not the right word. Less than average or subpar would have been better. Point is there isn't a lot of answers in the farm system that you would assume to have after playing under .500 baseball for four years and ditching multiple perennial all stars.

Once again I ask you to compare where this team is now as oppose to 2015-2016 the last time they had a sustained bad streak.

Well, if you have something in mind there, by all means go for it. I think the answer is that the rebuild led to 2018 that time around, and this time around it’s not certain where they’ll be in 2-3 years. Remember that team added Sale and Porcello. Who’s coming here this winter or next? TBD.

 

[moondog80]

When Epstein came to the Sox in 2003, the Sox were in worse shape than they were in 2019.

Care to back this up?

The 2003 Red Sox many key cornerstones in place (Pedro, Ortiz, Manny, Damon, Nixon, Varitek, Wake, Lowe, Nomar) and also had a farm system that had high end prospects that enabled trades for Curt Schilling and Josh Beckett, while still allowing them to add Jonathan Papelbon, Jon Lester, and Kevin Youkilis within the next few years. It was a world with a draft system that could be exploited with no spending limits and generous compensation picks that netted them, among others, Jacoby Ellsbury, Clay Buchholz, and Jed Lowrie, in just 2005, with compensation picks they would not get today. It was also a world where penalties for spending over the cap were strictly financial and most teams didn't understand that Mark Bellhorn was good.


Meanwhile, this was the SoxProspects top 30 at the end of 2019. Which of those guys could have netted them the equivalent of Beckett *and* Schilling? Of the remaining guys, who produced at level of Youk, Lester, and Pap?

Triston Casas
Bryan Mata
Jay Groome
Gilberto Jimenez
Bobby Dalbec
Jarren Duran
Tanner Houck
Noah Song
CJ Chatham
Thaddeus Ward
Ryan Zeferjahn
Aldo Ramirez
Chris Murphy
Matthew Lugo
Nick Decker
Cameron Cannon
Brayan Bello
Antoni Flores
Ceddanne Rafaela
Marcus Wilson

EDIT: Here's a farm system ranking from spring 2020. Sox ranked 25th.

https://www.mlb.com/news/2020-farm-system-rankings

 

[Salem's Lot]

It sucks when you start looking at but it would probably be for the better at this point if Fenway Sports Group sold the Sox. They did so much good but it just clearly doesn't see the Red Sox as an asset worth investing in or building an identity around. This is the third most expensive ticket in baseball but only mid range in attendance. NESN ratings are way down. Maybe running a mediocre baseball team has a better ROI nowadays I am not sure.

Edit - You can really see the difference between Kraft and FSG now. While the Pats are rebuilding Kraft has stepped up and worked to try to address issues.

I wonder how much of the change in ownership philosophy in regards to spending changed with the sizable investment made by Redbirds Capital Partners back in 2021. I fear that gone are the “Feeding the Monster” days when the limited partners would be emailing Henry & Warner when the team is doing poorly, or they didn’t like the view from their seats at Fenway. I assume that the only thing that the Redbird guys email about is what the end of the year dividend looks like.

 

[soxhop411]

I wonder how much of the change in ownership philosophy in regards to spending changed with the sizable investment made by Redbirds Capital Partners back in 2021. I fear that gone are the “Feeding the Monster” days when the limited partners would be emailing Henry & Warner when the team is doing poorly, or they didn’t like the view from their seats at Fenway. I assume that the only thing that the Redbird guys email about is what the end of the year dividend looks like.

the change in ownership spending is because of the CBT, which again is a defacto salary cap

NEW YORK — The Yankees became baseball’s most famous franchise in no small part because of their willingness to spend. Going forward, owner Hal Steinbrenner believes the Yankees could still be the Yankees in a salary-cap system.

“Yes,” Steinbrenner said Tuesday on the first day of MLB’s quarterly owners meetings. “But it depends what the cap is, it depends what the cap is. And it has to be, again, accompanied by a floor, so every club is doing their job to try to make it to the playoffs, for their fans’ sake.

“One thing people know about me, I’m always willing to have a conversation. You know, other owners, whoever — always willing to listen. But in regards to (a cap), it’s just too hypothetical right now, because what is it? What will it be, if it ever is?”

“You’ve heard me say now numerous times, including in December, I shouldn’t need a $300 million payroll to win a world championship,” Steinbrenner said. “Ten years ago, you were hearing me say it: I was saying 200 (should be enough). Times have changed. You know, if you’ve got a good player development system, good group of young talent, good group of veterans, superstars, it just shouldn’t, you shouldn’t have to have a payroll that high, in my opinion. But I’ve always said that.”

https://theathletic.com/4607202/2023/06/13/yankees-hal-steinbrenner-salary-cap/

 

[Salem's Lot]

the change in ownership spending is because of the CBT, which again is a defacto salary cap


https://theathletic.com/4607202/2023/06/13/yankees-hal-steinbrenner-salary-cap/

The de facto cap that currently 8 MLB teams are projected to go over.

spotrac.com/mlb/payroll/


It appears to me to be an individual ownership decision rather than a hard cap when almost 1/3 of the league is over it.

 

[curly2]

Chaim hasn't done much to make me think he should keep the job. I just don't know if it was even possible to build a great team today given what was in the system when he took over.

He could have had the Braves draft in 2020, when Atlanta also was short a pick and drafted in a worse position than the Sox every round. If he had drafted either Spencer Strider or Bryce Elder, this thread might not exist. if he had drafted both, like the Braves did, this might be an "Extend Chaim for life" thread, since Kluber wouldn't have been signed--with his money going elsewhere--and possibly Martin or Jansen not being signed, with Houck being a set-up man or closer with the team having such great starting depth. (This does not mean I am giving up on Shane Drohan. There's a chance he is a major-league starter).

Now expecting a guy to hit a grand slam like that in his first draft might be a lot of ask, but when a guy is brought in as a Wonder Kid* expectations are high.

Someone else mentioned Ha-Seong Kim. That would have been a great move. If Bogaerts still left, Kim could have been the second baseman last year and the shortstop this year (and next)

I will NOT relitigate the Mookie tade. That was probably forced on him by ownership. But i think Bloom screwed up on Bogaerts and Devers. His first move should have been to tie Devers up long term. If you believe Alex Spier, who I think we on this board view as being among the best if not the best reporter on the Sox, the team didn't talk extension with him until 2022. And I think the Story contract should have gone to X and not story. (Once X was an FA and the Padres offered that crazy deal, I think Bloom was right to not try to match it).

* I know that's not the actual term, it's a Ted Lasso reference.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Well, if you have something in mind there, by all means go for it. I think the answer is that the rebuild led to 2018 that time around, and this time around it’s not certain where they’ll be in 2-3 years. Remember that team added Sale and Porcello. Who’s coming here this winter or next? TBD.

I think there are two separate issues here. The first is - could Bloom have done more to make this year's team better? For me the answer is "yes, around the margins, if he really nailed all his free agent signings." I don't really hold that against Bloom too much because there is so much luck involved and, while I realize others differ, if this team were on pace for say, slightly above .500 instead of slightly below I wouldn't be much more enthused than I am now.

The second is - has Bloom hampered their ability to compete in future years? There I think the answer is a clear "no" - he's restocked the farm system and hasn't committed to any albatross contracts. I actually think the team is exactly where they want to be going into the next 2/3 years - their best players are locked up long-term (other than Verdugo, whom hopefully they can extend) and their bad or mediocre players are signed to short contracts and/or can be easily traded as necessary (other than Sale, but that's a pre-Bloom issue and he's coming off the books in a few years).

Of course, that means Bloom really needs to nail these next few years. He has a lot of flexibility to do so but if the team sucks going forward because Bloom isn't able to use the money coming off the books to sign better, longer-term talent, and if the prospects don't pan out or if Bloom isn't able to turn those prospects into good players, then sure, I'll be on the fire Bloom wagon. But in my opinion he hasn't done anything yet to suggest he's incapable of doing that going forward.

If I were Bloom my general plan would be:

1. Be a major seller at this year's deadline. They could get a pretty solid return for people like Duvall, Paxton, and Turner (and maybe Chris Martin as well), none of whom are really in this team's long-term plans anyway (Martin would require a pretty good return since he's under contract for next year too, but he's obviously not untouchable if the price is right).
2. Use the money coming off the books to improve the pitching. The offense is solid when healthy and they have prospects coming up soon that will further bolster it, but as others have said, there are no pitching prospects at all, basically, so they need to look elsewhere for help in that department. They can't create an amazing rotation in one offseason, especially since this year's pitching FA class is not that great, but they could definitely significantly improve the rotation without having to go bargain-shopping. (Hell, just signing someone to fill Kluber's $10m salary slot who can actually pitch would be a major improvement.)

Just doing those two things will put this team well on the path to contention in 2024/25. If they don't do these two things, though, I will start to join the fire-Bloom bandwagon - we can't have another year of Kluber-esque dumpster diving when it comes to the rotation. They need at least one guy other than Bello who is a reliable presence in the rotation locked up for multiple years, and/or someone in the Scherzer mold who would require lots of money but only for a year or two.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Meanwhile, this was the SoxProspects top 30 at the end of 2019. Which of those guys could have netted them the equivalent of Beckett *and* Schilling? Of the remaining guys, who produced at level of Youk, Lester, and Pap?

If the Sox don't have a Casey Fossum, Brandon Lyon and Jorge De La Rosa in their minor league system, they're completely screwed. I mean, they're "the 16th best minor league system in baseball" and you're saying that they can't find three very mediocre arms to trade for a good pitcher in this scenario that you just made up? Okay.

As far as Beckett goes, Epstein had roughly been on the job for as long as Bloom has been now so he was able to develop the capital needed to get a Beckett. Outside of Mayer, Bloom hasn't been able to do so yet, so I don't think that this is the point you want to be making right now.

There's another option. He does have a reasonable plan for the Major League team, but it has not worked for the last 1.42 seasons.

Then while his plan might be considered "reasonable", it is not in fact considered "good".

I mean I could have a reasonable plan of walking around and picking up discarded lottery tickets hoping that someone accidentally threw away a winner. It costs me nothing except time, so it's reasonable. But it's not a good plan for paying my mortgage.

 

[soxin6]

Want to show your homework there?
2019: ranked 30th
https://www.milb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-overall-30-21-304615150

2023: all over the map but I see 16th
https://www.mlb.com/news/farm-system-rankings-2023-preseason

16th still isn't good and the major league roster isn't impressive. People will say look at what Houston went through to get where they are, but the reality is that this team has won the WS four times in the 2000s and their fans don't want to sit in the basement for another five years to have a top ranked minor league system. The Astros had never won anything, so losing was something their fans were used to. The Red Sox fan base has been spoiled by the success of the last twenty years and many of them only care about the results on the field for the Sox. They aren't following minor league players and they don't really care about them until they are called up to the majors. If the FSP is good with empty seats and diminishing ratings while Bloom fills the farm system, then it is time for them to sell. When ownership no longer cares about winning, they need to get out.

 

[joe dokes]

Then while his plan might be considered "reasonable", it is not in fact considered "good".

I mean I could have a reasonable plan of walking around and picking up discarded lottery tickets hoping that someone accidentally threw away a winner. It costs me nothing except time, so it's reasonable. But it's not a good plan for paying my mortgage.

I dont want to parse it too much. To me "reasonable" means "it has a fair shot of working out well. It just didn't." (unlike your lottery example.) On me for using sloppy language.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I think these threads have gone round and round on this same point, but productive players can be acquired through trade as well.

I'm looking longingly at Ha-Seong Kim and his stellar defense...

No question that trades are a possibility. The hard part about speculating woulda/coulda/shoulda with trades is we don't know who is/was available and who isn't. For starters, I don't think we can reasonably point to any player that is still with his original team and say "they should have traded for that guy." I mean, shouldn't we assume that the team is holding on to the player for a good reason?

 

[moondog80]

As far as Beckett goes, Epstein had roughly been on the job for as long as Bloom has been now so he was able to develop the capital needed to get a Beckett. Outside of Mayer, Bloom hasn't been able to do so yet, so I don't think that this is the point you want to be making right now.

Hanley Ramirez was the 19th ranked prospect in MLB (per Baseball America) when Esptein took over. Hanley wasn't "developed" by Epstein, he was already there, along with three key pieces they could add to a team that won the WS in 2007, and enough left over to trade for Curt Schilling.

With that in mind, let's get back to your assertion that Theo took over a worse situation than Chaim. How do you back that up?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

I dont want to parse it too much. To me "reasonable" means "it has a fair shot of working out well. It just didn't." (unlike your lottery example.) On me for using sloppy language.

Understandable. But if the plan is not working at the highest level (MLB), isn't it reasonable to change it?

That's really the crux of this issue, how long are we supposed to be watching this dreck? And before someone calls me entitled, let me be the first to do it. Damn right I'm entitled. I am entitled to the front office putting forth the best effort that they can to put as good team on the field. If they miscalculate, their job is to fix it. We, as fans, pay the highest ticket prices and among the highest concession prices in the league; we should have a team on the field that reflects the money that we put into the team. A sports team is different than other things in our lives, yes, I will be patient on my 401K. I will be patient with other investments. But that's because that patience rewards me with tangible gains at the end. What does patience with a ball club reward you with?

Presumably all of us like to watch baseball. Right now, and for three out of the last four years, they've been a real chore to watch. That's not great. Asking for change or some urgency in the direction of the major league franchise is not high treason.

 

[joe dokes]

Understandable. But if the plan is not working at the highest level (MLB), isn't it reasonable to change it?

That's really the crux of this issue, how long are we supposed to be watching this dreck? And before someone calls me entitled, let me be the first to do it. Damn right I'm entitled. I am entitled to the front office putting forth the best effort that they can to put as good team on the field. If they miscalculate, their job is to fix it. We, as fans, pay the highest ticket prices and among the highest concession prices in the league; we should have a team on the field that reflects the money that we put into the team. A sports team is different than other things in our lives, yes, I will be patient on my 401K. I will be patient with other investments. But that's because that patience rewards me with tangible gains at the end. What does patience with a ball club reward you with?

Presumably all of us like to watch baseball. Right now, and for three out of the last four years, they've been a real chore to watch. That's not great. Asking for change or some urgency in the direction of the major league franchise is not high treason.

I guess that, in my head, 2020 and before dont count. (YMMV, of course). As for how long, if the remainder of this season shows nothing positive for present and future, I'll have serious doubts about Bloom's abilities. As for how long, I dont think I'd ever watch a 55-win team. But as disappointed as I am at a 75 win season, that's basically a 50-50 shot of winning *tonight's* game. That's my minimum requirement for default entertainment. I'm passed the point of getting angry if they suck. I just change the channel.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Hanley Ramirez was the 19th ranked prospect in MLB (per Baseball America) when Esptein took over. Hanley wasn't "developed" by Epstein, he was already there, along with three key pieces they could add to a team that won the WS in 2007, and enough left over to trade for Curt Schilling.

With that in mind, let's get back to your assertion that Theo took over a worse situation than Chaim. How do you back that up?

I will give you that Ramirez was the 19th ranked prospect. However, he was the only Red Sox player on the Top 100 prospect list.

As far as the "key pieces", they were all developed by Epstein (except for Youkilis):

Pedroia was taken in the second round of the 2004 draft
Ellsbury was taken in the first round of the 2005 draft
Papelbon was taken in the fourth round of the 2003 draft

Lester appeared in 12 games, so I wouldn't count him as a "key piece", but Youkilis was. So, again, you're pretty much wrong about how the 2007 team was built. It was actually stocked with players that Epstein drafted himself in the four seasons that he was the head of Red Sox Player Ops.

 

[OurF'ingCity]

Presumably all of us like to watch baseball. Right now, and for three out of the last four years, they've been a real chore to watch. That's not great. Asking for change or some urgency in the direction of the major league franchise is not high treason.

And the other year they made the ALCS. That's better than about 2/3 of the league has been able to do in the same time frame, and only 4 teams (I think) have made the NLCS/ALCS more than once during that period.

I also have no idea what you mean by "urgency" - what does that mean in practice? Signing more free agents? Which ones? Making trades? With what assets?

I'm not trying to single you out but I think your posts have been emblematic of the kind of vague complaints that don't specify what exactly Bloom has done wrong or what he should be doing differently going forward. In one of your posts you mentioned wanting "a GM who can bring in players that are overlooked by other organizations" but isn't that exactly what Bloom has done with guys like Whitlock, Arroyo, Renfroe (yes, yes I know he then traded him), Kiké, Refsnyder, Yoshida to a degree, etc.? Sure none of those guys are All-Stars but All-Stars don't tend to get overlooked. And other than that you have yet to make a specific criticism of Bloom.

I mean I guess if your outlook is that if the Red Sox don't make the playoffs more than 25% of the time in a four-year span the GM should automatically be fired, then sure, but that's pretty reductive IMO and if that's the case then there's not really much to discuss.

 

[moondog80]

I will give you that Ramirez was the 19th ranked prospect. However, he was the only Red Sox player on the Top 100 prospect list.

As far as the "key pieces", they were all developed by Epstein (except for Youkilis):

Pedroia was taken in the second round of the 2004 draft
Ellsbury was taken in the first round of the 2005 draft
Papelbon was taken in the fourth round of the 2003 draft

Lester appeared in 12 games, so I wouldn't count him as a "key piece", but Youkilis was. So, again, you're pretty much wrong about how the 2007 team was built. It was actually stocked with players that Epstein drafted himself in the four seasons that he was the head of Red Sox Player Ops.

You are right about Pap -- he was drafted by Theo. My bad.

If you want to quibble about Lester being key in 2007, fine. He was certainly an integral part of the team after that, and his presence in the farm system (along with Youk and Hanley) supports the idea that the farm was in better shape in 2003 than 2009. Certainly in terms of "talent that can contribute in the near future".

But let's get back to your point that 2003 was a worse situation. That's what I really want to hear about. Minor errors aside, I've made my case why I think 2019 was worse.

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

You are right about Pap -- he was drafted by Theo. My bad.

If you want to quibble about Lester being key in 2007, fine. He was certainly an integral part of the team after that, and his presence in the farm system (along with Youk and Hanley) supports the idea that the farm was in better shape in 2003 than 2009. Certainly in terms of "talent that can contribute in the near future".

But let's get back to your point that 2003 was a worse situation. That's what I really want to hear about. Minor errors aside, I've made my case why I think 2019 was worse.

I don't think that you have. We have the hindsight to say "Youkilis and Lester were in the minor leagues so we're doing pretty good". Maybe Bello and Casas become the Youkilis and Lester of the 2020s? I don't know. All I know is that in 2003 there was one player on the Top 100 and there was only one on Top 100 list for 2019 (Michael Chavis). So maybe both systems were considered barren by the powers that rank this stuff.

 

[chrisfont9]

16th still isn't good and the major league roster isn't impressive. People will say look at what Houston went through to get where they are, but the reality is that this team has won the WS four times in the 2000s and their fans don't want to sit in the basement for another five years to have a top ranked minor league system. The Astros had never won anything, so losing was something their fans were used to. The Red Sox fan base has been spoiled by the success of the last twenty years and many of them only care about the results on the field for the Sox. They aren't following minor league players and they don't really care about them until they are called up to the majors. If the FSP is good with empty seats and diminishing ratings while Bloom fills the farm system, then it is time for them to sell. When ownership no longer cares about winning, they need to get out.

After four titles it's a little hard for me to get there -- not saying you are there either, but if that's what people think, it's still just a gross assumption about what total strangers are very privately up to. It's very fair to say that Henry and co. have rejected another round of "just go buy a title," to PeteAbe's dismay, and no doubt they would prefer to hang on to more of the team's earnings than the Mets or Padres owners. But I would guess they also know that buying a title is pretty dicey, that other ways of competing have a better shelf life, and don't underestimate the ego blow of losing to the Rays after you've blown $300m on big name guys. In the AL East, it's an even harder sell than it might be in some shlub division with one winning team.

I'm not trying to single you out but I think your posts have been emblematic of the kind of vague complaints that don't specify what exactly Bloom has done wrong or what he should be doing differently going forward. In one of your posts you mentioned wanting "a GM who can bring in players that are overlooked by other organizations" but isn't that exactly what Bloom has done with guys like Whitlock, Arroyo, Renfroe (yes, yes I know he then traded him), Kiké, Refsnyder, Yoshida to a degree, etc.? Sure none of those guys are All-Stars but All-Stars don't tend to get overlooked. And other than that you have yet to make a specific criticism of Bloom.

Right -- name another GM who you are replacing Bloom with who suddenly has more success with drafts, IFAs and free agents?

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I don't think that you have. We have the hindsight to say "Youkilis and Lester were in the minor leagues so we're doing pretty good". Maybe Bello and Casas become the Youkilis and Lester of the 2020s? I don't know. All I know is that in 2003 there was one player on the Top 100 and there was only one on Top 100 list for 2019 (Michael Chavis). So maybe both systems were considered barren by the powers that rank this stuff.

Not really trying to get into this debate, but there is something to be said for the changes in player/prospect evaluation since 2002-2003. That was the period in which Billy Beane was doing all the things that got documented in Moneyball. Things that kinda turned scouting and prospect valuation on its head in large part because hardly anyone else was doing it. Now everybody is. So maybe it's not exactly a one for one comparison?

 

[mikeford]

They signed Chang and Mondesi, warm bodies both.

Mondesi is literally the opposite of warm since he was hurt when they traded for him and he remains hurt and likely will continue to be hurt since he's spent his entire career being hurt.

 

[chrisfont9]

I don't think that you have. We have the hindsight to say "Youkilis and Lester were in the minor leagues so we're doing pretty good". Maybe Bello and Casas become the Youkilis and Lester of the 2020s? I don't know. All I know is that in 2003 there was one player on the Top 100 and there was only one on Top 100 list for 2019 (Michael Chavis). So maybe both systems were considered barren by the powers that rank this stuff.

Is there any debate that 2007 had a healthy homegrown component? I feel like I've heard people from that team say that a lot, so that's their view anyway. Add in Buchholz, Delcarmen and the Japanese signees if you want. But the competitive environment was so, so different. Remember our playoff ace was Beckett and the WS MVP was Lowell -- two players who were fleeced off a Marlins team that wasn't even trying to compete? The only recent example of something like that was the Nats fire sale. You can't paper over the lack of a farm system quite so easily these days.

 

[teddywingman]

One of the things that's bugging me right now is how great Wacha and Eovaldi are pitching while we're stuck watching Kluber. I know there's contract considerations and money reasons, but come on. That's some bad evaluation.

And that shit head pitching in Worcester. Why?

 

[John Marzano Olympic Hero]

Not really trying to get into this debate, but there is something to be said for the changes in player/prospect evaluation since 2002-2003. That was the period in which Billy Beane was doing all the things that got documented in Moneyball. Things that kinda turned scouting and prospect valuation on its head in large part because hardly anyone else was doing it. Now everybody is. So maybe it's not exactly a one for one comparison?

I didn't say it was. But this is baseball and we are always comparing players of today versus players in other eras. How would Pedro have done against Babe Ruth? Would Ohtani be able to crush Walter Johnson? Stuff like that. It's kind of what makes baseball such a great sport to debate. And I think that includes GMs too.

Yes, there are handcuffs placed on Front Offices today that weren't there 20 years ago. But Epstein had similar handcuffs that Dan Duquette or Lou Gorman or Haywood Sullivan didn't have. You're never going to have a 1:1 comparison for anything in the game. Ever. Like Babe Ruth didn't have to play against Black players. Ted Williams didn't have to fly cross country. For most of his career Manny wasn't hitting against guys who routinely throw 100 MPH.

 

[moondog80]

I don't think that you have. We have the hindsight to say "Youkilis and Lester were in the minor leagues so we're doing pretty good". Maybe Bello and Casas become the Youkilis and Lester of the 2020s? I don't know. All I know is that in 2003 there was one player on the Top 100 and there was only one on Top 100 list for 2019 (Michael Chavis). So maybe both systems were considered barren by the powers that rank this stuff.

Once again -- I've made my case. You may not agree with it, and that's fine, but I've made my argument.

What is your argument that Theo walked into a harder job? This will be the last time I ask, as to not dog down the thread.

EDIT -- My point that 2003 was easier is not a knock on Theo. He took advantage of every edge he had and knocked it out of the park. A+ work.

 

[joe dokes]

And the other year they made the ALCS. That's better than about 2/3 of the league has been able to do in the same time frame, and only 4 teams (I think) have made the NLCS/ALCS more than once during that period.

I also have no idea what you mean by "urgency" - what does that mean in practice? Signing more free agents? Which ones? Making trades? With what assets?

I'm not trying to single you out but I think your posts have been emblematic of the kind of vague complaints that don't specify what exactly Bloom has done wrong or what he should be doing differently going forward. In one of your posts you mentioned wanting "a GM who can bring in players that are overlooked by other organizations" but isn't that exactly what Bloom has done with guys like Whitlock, Arroyo, Renfroe (yes, yes I know he then traded him), Kiké, Refsnyder, Yoshida to a degree, etc.? Sure none of those guys are All-Stars but All-Stars don't tend to get overlooked. And other than that you have yet to make a specific criticism of Bloom.

I mean I guess if your outlook is that if the Red Sox don't make the playoffs more than 25% of the time in a four-year span the GM should automatically be fired, then sure, but that's pretty reductive IMO and if that's the case then there's not really much to discuss.

I mostly agree with this. I dont think Bloom is "unqualified" or "in over his head" or whatever the worst conclusions are.
But as to the bolded, I really dont have a problem if people who *do* think that Bloom sucks dont have an answer as to what to do going forward. (I think that most who feel that he does suck have said why they think that way.) We can all have opinions on player x depending on what we're measuring. Most of us are unqualified to say anything other than "suck less"/hit better/stop swinging at shitty pitches.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I didn't say it was. But this is baseball and we are always comparing players of today versus players in other eras. How would Pedro have done against Babe Ruth? Would Ohtani be able to crush Walter Johnson? Stuff like that. It's kind of what makes baseball such a great sport to debate. And I think that includes GMs too.

Yes, there are handcuffs placed on Front Offices today that weren't there 20 years ago. But Epstein had similar handcuffs that Dan Duquette or Lou Gorman or Haywood Sullivan didn't have. You're never going to have a 1:1 comparison for anything in the game. Ever. Like Babe Ruth didn't have to play against Black players. Ted Williams didn't have to fly cross country. For most of his career Manny wasn't hitting against guys who routinely throw 100 MPH.

I was merely talking about the prospect rankings and how they're derived. Players that were ranked in the top 100 in 2003 might not have been top 100 by 2019 criteria and vice-versa. So I'm not sure it's informative to judge the system Theo inherited vs the one Chaim inherited based on prospect ranking systems that likely use different criteria.

 

[moondog80]

Is there any debate that 2007 had a healthy homegrown component? I feel like I've heard people from that team say that a lot, so that's their view anyway. Add in Buchholz, Delcarmen and the Japanese signees if you want. But the competitive environment was so, so different. Remember our playoff ace was Beckett and the WS MVP was Lowell -- two players who were fleeced off a Marlins team that wasn't even trying to compete? The only recent example of something like that was the Nats fire sale. You can't paper over the lack of a farm system quite so easily these days.

To be fair, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez had a combined WAR of 67.9 after that deal, compared to 37.2 for Beckett and Lowell. So "fleeced" seems wrong. It was a great deal for both teams.

 

[Auger34]

They made the NLCS last year without Tatis. Their issues this year are that Tatis missed 3 weeks and legitimate stars in Soto/Machado/Bogaerts have significantly underperformed. I would much rather watch a struggling team with stars than the 2023 Red Sox that has no elite talent beyond Devers and Yoshida, if you count him.

Thank you. This was the point I was making

 

[chrisfont9]

To be fair, Hanley Ramirez and Anibal Sanchez had a combined WAR of 67.9 after that deal, compared to 37.2 for Beckett and Lowell. So "fleeced" seems wrong. It was a great deal for both teams.

Hey some of Hanley's WAR was in Boston! Double win! But yeah, agree. And frankly Boston had the prospects, they and the Marlins really just shifted their competitive windows by three years or so.

 

[Auger34]

This thread should be fired.
Normally rational thinking posters here have lost their mind.
It's not criticism.... sorry... it's entitled fanboyism crap. Emotions getting the better of everyone here.
If you criticize (is someone really saying that Bloom should have gotten something of value from Connor fucking Seabold here!?!?!?!) Bloom for poor roster construction then I'm sorry, but it's your burden to provide some thought what he could REASONABLY have done.... .you can't then back into a "I'm not a paid a million bucks for those decisions". That's fanboyism. I have yet to read any reasonable critique of Bloom.*

*I should amend this to say that there have been but they've been with an understanding of the payroll situation (fair or not) and a long term view.... and those guys get called "Bloom Apologists".

If you’ve read through all of these threads and posts and you seriously think there is no reasonable way to critique Bloom then your head is buried in the sand and nothing can change your mind.
There have been plenty of reasonable critiques of Bloom, you’re just not willing to entertain anything negative about him