How long will Chaim last?
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Fair enough.
Seems to me the (recent) goal has shifted from Theo’s 95 win target each year to something in the mid-upper 80s or maybe 90 if everything goes right and sneak into a WC spot. Given where they were coming from, I can understand it even if I don’t like it. But not for long. I want to see them hunting 100 wins again. Soon.
Edit: I realize Theo’s goal was in the era of only 1 WC team and that baseball is different now. But the upper echelon teams seem to be trying to put together great teams. Not just good ones. Maybe that is ill-advised given some of the postseason failures of the MFY, Dodgers, etc. But I’d much rather try to build that type of team than hope you get lucky like in 2021.
I'll grant that BAL is ahead of schedule (owing in large part to how good Rutschman is and the fact that some Duquette picks panned out too) but as for this year, I thought everyone knew that they'd be a contender. I don't follow BAL as much as I probably should but it was my impression that after BAL went 67-55 following Rutschman's call-up (which IIRC was the best or among the best in the AL).
Bloom had to know that BAL was going to stockpile premium talent until they broke through. I mean it doesn't work all of the time but when you're committed to the bit as much as BAL was, while it doesn't always equal championship, it generally means that the team is going to be pretty good. More than "competitive."
We should probably put a cull on any Ohtani-to-the Sox talk right now. Love Bloom or hate him, there's zero chance ownership would spend the $500 million or whatever it would take in order to sign Ohtani.
Best to stop that discussion point right now. It's never going to happen.
Best to stop that discussion point right now. It's never going to happen.
So to @John Marzano Olympic Hero point I know this thread gets pretty circular and there is a lot of talking past each other...but if it leads to conclusions like this one, I think it's still a pretty healthy discussion. Because you and I seem to be on pretty opposite ends of the Bloom spectrum, but I am also firmly on board with the conclusion you reached here.
Hugs and handpounds. Also, see my edit to my previous post. I think it adds something.
This to me is the #1 legitimate criticism of Bloom. Everyone knew the rule changes (and just the way baseball is trending overall) were going to put more of a premium on speed and defense and Bloom put together a slow team that sucks at defense.
The good news is that since they don't have a ton of players tied up in long-term contracts, they should be able to address this problem going forward, and this is not strictly all Bloom's fault since some of it is just the players available to them (e.g., Casas) and some of it is due to injuries (Story, Chang, etc.), but it's still a clear miss and reflects something of a lack of foresight on Blooms part, IMO.
The last couple of years, this year, and *maybe* next, I can't disagree with the "goal" point. (except maybe with "sneak," but whatever). But like the context-dependent OPS and OPS+ the addition of an extra WC might allow the raw win goal to shift downward but the team goal to remain the same. (As it would if the Sox were suddenly dropped into the AL Central.)
Time-wise, it may very well be the same length of time as the successful tankers had to do, but without the actual tanking.
I think that's what leads to the non-entertaining baseball. Trying to remain "competitive," (i.e., not tanking) while also trying to rebuild is going to lead to a team with some strengths, but whose flaws are *really* magnified. A 105-win team has flaws, too. But they are just less likely to de-rail the train. A 65 win team has almost no strengths.
Isn’t this, in large part, based on how Bloom has primarily constructed his big league teams- via free agency, and with players willing to sign short term deals. The types of players who accept the deals that Bloom has offered seem to largely fit a certain type- players coming off of injury and / or poor performance, older, etc. Mondesi and Story were exceptions in terms of players who have speed, but one was hurt obviously.
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Who would have been a better hire than Bloom? I don’t think we ever heard who all the finalists were, but the names I keep finding as the “favorites” at the time. Keep in mind they wanted to go outside the organization:
Bloom
Josh Byrnes
Matt Arnold (Brewers)
Brandon Taubman (Astros)
Denied any interest in the position: Ben Cherington, Mike Hazen, Amiel Sawdaye, and Epstein.
Should they have tried making a godfather like offer to Friedman? I don’t think he wanted to leave the Dodgers even though his contract was up for renewal. Billy Beane? I don’t know how that would work since he has an ownership stake in the As, but would he really have been any better?
Chaim’s tenure hasn’t been sunshine and roses but I think he was the right hire at the time based on who was available.
Bloom
Josh Byrnes
Matt Arnold (Brewers)
Brandon Taubman (Astros)
Denied any interest in the position: Ben Cherington, Mike Hazen, Amiel Sawdaye, and Epstein.
Should they have tried making a godfather like offer to Friedman? I don’t think he wanted to leave the Dodgers even though his contract was up for renewal. Billy Beane? I don’t know how that would work since he has an ownership stake in the As, but would he really have been any better?
Chaim’s tenure hasn’t been sunshine and roses but I think he was the right hire at the time based on who was available.
I think the "hunting 100 wins" is kinda what got them in this situation in the first place. Consider the prime Theo years. He built the 2004 roster around inherited expensive veterans with a whole lot of bargains and short-term contracts mixed in. He built the 2007 roster around a young homegrown core and a lot of relatively inexpensive, and generally short-term, support pieces. The longest contract he gave out prior to 2010 was five years to JD Drew (technically I suppose DiceK was a 6 year deal but they would have had him for six years of control anyway). Bottom line is he never really gave away too much financial flexibility nor did he ever outspend the league trying to "dominate."
Where it kind of got away from Theo, and what Cherington eventually had to clean up, was the splashy signings like Lackey and Crawford and Gonzalez. That 2011 team was billed as the greatest team ever before that season. Didn't work out and had to be blown up and led to 3 last place finishes out of 4 seasons. Kinda felt like a penance for pushing all in for a big score. And this last few years feels the same in response to the (successful) all in move for the 2018 title.
Ultimately, I think the goal is to get back to that 95 wins a year level, but the groundwork has to be laid first. Theo had the benefit of the Sox financial might combined with a lot fewer restrictions to put his "player development machine" plan into effect without the re-build. It might take a bit longer for Bloom (or any GM in the league) to get such a plan off the ground.
It’s hard for me to figure out Claim because below the surface I like a lot of the things they are doing but the end product just isn’t there yet. I do think he’s had an awful lot go wrong that was outside his control.
I will say this, if they were to fire Bloom you’d have a very long list of people wanting to come on board and build 2024 on the foundation he’s laid.
Devers, Story, Yoshida locked up. Interesting cheap up the middle players in Wong and Duran.
Bello, Whitlock, Houck with a ton of control and flexibility. Wink, Crawford, Schrieber
As well situated as anyone with a reset luxury tax and flexible payroll.
And a potential superstar in Mayer waiting in the wings.
This is the exact opposite situation Chaim inherited, so I think he deserves a chance to see it through.
I will say this, if they were to fire Bloom you’d have a very long list of people wanting to come on board and build 2024 on the foundation he’s laid.
Devers, Story, Yoshida locked up. Interesting cheap up the middle players in Wong and Duran.
Bello, Whitlock, Houck with a ton of control and flexibility. Wink, Crawford, Schrieber
As well situated as anyone with a reset luxury tax and flexible payroll.
And a potential superstar in Mayer waiting in the wings.
This is the exact opposite situation Chaim inherited, so I think he deserves a chance to see it through.
I don't really see evidence of this. Didn't we just sign a guy to a $313M deal?
Of the top 50 biggest contracts in MLB, here are how they are distributed by team:
ANA: 1, 17
ARI: 46
ATL: 19, 28
BOS: 11th (Devers), 34th (Sale), 36th (Story)
CHC: 26
CIN: 18
CLE: 35
COL: 24, 49
DET: 15, 38
HOU: 29, 44
LAD: 2, 30
MIL: 22
MIN: 21
NYM: 5, 32, 41
NYY: 3, 8, 10, 31
PHI: 7, 12, 42, 43
SD: 4, 6, 13, 50
SEA: 20, 45, 48
STL: 14, 40
TB: 25
TEX: 9, 23, 27, 47
TOR: 33, 39
WAS: 16, 37
And here are teams listed by the number of players on contracts totaling $90+ million:
NYY: 6
PHI, SD: 5
BOS, NYM, TEX: 4
ATL, HOU, SEA: 3
ANA, CLE, COL, DET, LAD, MIN, STL, TOR, WAS: 2
ARI, CHC, CIN, MIL, PIT, SFG, TB: 1
BAL, CWS, KC, MIA, OAK: 0
I recognize that this is an imperfect way of looking at it — some of the big value contracts above expire next year and others do in 2033 — but the Sox don't seem like outliers to me. I don't think we're signing Ohtani but it seems like we've got as good a shot as anyone at Soto in a year and a half, should he leave San Diego.
The fact that we just signed Devers after letting X and Mookie go away is the clearest sign yet that ownership will tolerate only one huge deal on the team.
There is no reality where Ohtani comes to Boston. None.
There is no reality where Ohtani comes to Boston. None.
Great post. This is a much better way of arguing my position than the way I've been doing it. Adding on to Tims4Twins post about "aiming for 90 wins" seems about right but I also really see Henry ready to open up the purse strings after this season as all these guys you've mentioned should be at or near their prime productive seasons over the following 3-5 depending on their ages.
I think I agree... but I also think JWH will be spending more soon and see them in the top five payrolls again. And Ohtani basically counts for two contracts. I'll be shocked still if he ends on the Sox (but would be thrilled and also scared- age and his injury two seasons ago...). More likely I see them targeting a Urias or the Japanese pitcher that's getting a lot of love but I can't recall his name along with another top tier bullpen arm. Sign Verdugo (Benintendi level contract) and look at getting Bello a long term contract
2018 was also built on the insane (and unrepeatable, as rules have changed) 2011 draft class and massive (also unrepeatable) international spending on Moncada. By contrast, Bloom inhereted a system that had missed years of international signings due to penalties, had multiple first round picks bust, and then immediately got the abbreviated draft and lost 2020 minor league season, along a canceled rule V draft. It hasn't been an ideal period to try to rebuild in, but I think he's generally done a fine job given the circumstances. I'm just expecting a slower return to that 95 win ideal.
If that's the case, not working to get Devers signed earlier to the type of deal the Braves have done with their young guys will be costly in more ways than one.
The more I think about it, I think ownership probably promised Bloom a pretty long leash. I know the rule is to draft best player available, but I think the fact that Bloom's draft have been so heavily skewed toward high school players over college guys makes me think he'll be safe at least through the end of next season. If he felt he had to get results with his draftees in the system by this time I think he would have gone heavier toward guys who could contribute at the major-league level quickly--with Meyer as an exception you draft regaerdless.
You've said this a few times now, and I think the big picture is getting distorted a bit. Three of the Sox current starters are 27 years old and one is 24. We have Houck under control through 2027 and Bello, Crawford and Whitlock through 2028.
In 2019, Bello was considered a 40 FV prospect with the upside of a back-end starter, Houck had been moved into a relief role, Whitlock was the #41 prospect in the Yankees system and Kutter Crawford wasn't a name anybody wrote down. Those are all major successes of our pitching development system under Bloom. Opinions vary on whether Crawford will stick in the rotation, and that's fine, but this seems quite well ahead of most teams.
We've also got Drohan on the cusp. (I know you've pointed to his AAA numbers, which are less good mostly because he's walking more batters, but it's documented that they're working on something specific and trying to change the shape of his cutter/slider).
Here's what Fangraphs' Eric Longenhagen says about our pitching prospects:
Shane Drohan, 24: Athletic lefties with changeups this good tend to find their way into a big league rotation as no. 4/5 starters, even when they only have a fair breaking ball. If you think Drohan’s athleticism will help his new breaking stuff flourish over time, or that his recent arm strength uptick is the start of an upward trend that will continue for a while longer, then you can argue he’s a top 100 prospect.
Wikelman Gonzalez, 21: Line this sort of stuff up with the best college arms in the country and it compares pretty favorably. You’re not taking a project like Gonzalez ahead of the more polished college arms who tend to go in the middle of the first round or above, but guys with relief risk and stuff like this tend to find their way into the late-first and comp round. Patience here. This is a powerful down-the-mound athlete generating huge hip/shoulder separation who can also really spin it. He’s got considerable upside, even if he ends up in the bullpen.
Angel Bastardo, 21: He’s out-pitching Wikelman Gonzalez at the same age, at the same level, and with more polished and complete secondary stuff, but lesser arm strength and raw breaking ball quality. I have Gonzalez ahead because he’s more traditionally projectable, but you can take your pick between the two.
I haven't made up my mind on Chaim yet. So I mention the below points as someone who isn't firmly in the pro-Chaim or anti-Chaim camp.
-The defense has been a bit infuriating but that is not all on Chaim. That SS situation just sucks due to all the injuries. You could maybe blame Chaim a little bit for signing an injury-prone guy like Mondesi.....but in retrospect, the Trevor Story surgery didn't happen until January, Mondesi was expected to be ready within a month and Chang wasn't really considered injury prone, but he got hurt anyway. There's only so far down the depth chart you can reach before it gets ugly.
-I think there's a lot of developmental positives going on right now which is exactly what I personally wanted to see in 2023. I didn't expect this to be a playoff team but knew they could make it if things broke right. I think probably the hard part for many of us fans is that we saw flashes of what the team can be when some of the younger guys are playing well (Duran and Conor Wong catching fire along with Yoshida for a while). When we see those flashes, you start thinking the team is going to take the next step and play .600 ball for a long stretch when in reality, there's bumps in the road on consistency.
-The team has a lot of payroll flexibility going forward. If these younger players continue to develop, there is a legit reason to think that this team can be a legit contender in 2024 and beyond. I'd like to see Chaim build for 2024 and beyond as we get near the trade deadline unless the team is actually right in the race (not 4-5 games out with 5 teams to hurdle). There's enough room in 2023 to maybe take on one expensive expiring contract, but otherwise, I don't see a reason to expect a bunch of big moves even if they are in the hunt this year. The help is going to have to be in the form of injured players returning (Trevor Story and maybe if lucky, you can get Chris Sale for the home stretch) or one of the young guys like Casas making a leap at the plate.
-The defense has been a bit infuriating but that is not all on Chaim. That SS situation just sucks due to all the injuries. You could maybe blame Chaim a little bit for signing an injury-prone guy like Mondesi.....but in retrospect, the Trevor Story surgery didn't happen until January, Mondesi was expected to be ready within a month and Chang wasn't really considered injury prone, but he got hurt anyway. There's only so far down the depth chart you can reach before it gets ugly.
-I think there's a lot of developmental positives going on right now which is exactly what I personally wanted to see in 2023. I didn't expect this to be a playoff team but knew they could make it if things broke right. I think probably the hard part for many of us fans is that we saw flashes of what the team can be when some of the younger guys are playing well (Duran and Conor Wong catching fire along with Yoshida for a while). When we see those flashes, you start thinking the team is going to take the next step and play .600 ball for a long stretch when in reality, there's bumps in the road on consistency.
-The team has a lot of payroll flexibility going forward. If these younger players continue to develop, there is a legit reason to think that this team can be a legit contender in 2024 and beyond. I'd like to see Chaim build for 2024 and beyond as we get near the trade deadline unless the team is actually right in the race (not 4-5 games out with 5 teams to hurdle). There's enough room in 2023 to maybe take on one expensive expiring contract, but otherwise, I don't see a reason to expect a bunch of big moves even if they are in the hunt this year. The help is going to have to be in the form of injured players returning (Trevor Story and maybe if lucky, you can get Chris Sale for the home stretch) or one of the young guys like Casas making a leap at the plate.
I know this is a glass half-empty take, but I don't think a number 4/5 starter (maybe) in a year and two 21 year olds who look like solid bullpen arms blows away Petagine's point.
I don’t agree with lots of what SJH says, but he is 100% correct here.
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From a current team POV, I like the guys on the team and at times they have been fun to watch. They don’t give up on games, and seeing some of the players improve has been enjoyable.
However, the defense is “indefensible”. I mean, jeez, if we had guys killing it in offense I guess you could swallow the D, but outside of Raffy what do we really have? Our best CF is leading the league in errors -at SS (I know he’s been moved off). The infield D is suspect at best, and we have an outfield D that maybe gets to “average” on occasion.
(Catching has been fine)
As stated above, we are slow and plodding.
Our offense was a mirage earlier in the year. Half the lineup cannot consistently hit, and what’s worse, we have zero baseball IQ. Example… the other night after Raffy hit the HR in the 10th we got Duran on with 2 down. Fastest guy in the AL East. Reese is up.., does he take a pitch or two to allow the base runner to get into scoring position? Nope. Hacking at first two pitches. Just an example, but feels like a trend with this team.
Anyhow, this was the plan. Work on the farm, keep contracts short, develop guys, and if we get lucky we sneak into the WC. Otherwise, it’s always been .2024.
However, the defense is “indefensible”. I mean, jeez, if we had guys killing it in offense I guess you could swallow the D, but outside of Raffy what do we really have? Our best CF is leading the league in errors -at SS (I know he’s been moved off). The infield D is suspect at best, and we have an outfield D that maybe gets to “average” on occasion.
(Catching has been fine)
As stated above, we are slow and plodding.
Our offense was a mirage earlier in the year. Half the lineup cannot consistently hit, and what’s worse, we have zero baseball IQ. Example… the other night after Raffy hit the HR in the 10th we got Duran on with 2 down. Fastest guy in the AL East. Reese is up.., does he take a pitch or two to allow the base runner to get into scoring position? Nope. Hacking at first two pitches. Just an example, but feels like a trend with this team.
Anyhow, this was the plan. Work on the farm, keep contracts short, develop guys, and if we get lucky we sneak into the WC. Otherwise, it’s always been .2024.
My point is that we went from a 2019 rotation of Sale, Price, Porcello, Eovaldi and uhhhhh Cashner, all guys on expensive contracts and over 30, to one where four-fifths are cost-controlled for half a decade and (currently) above-average.
You forgot 26 year old Eduardo Rodriguez who won 19 games that year. Eovaldi was also 29, and Sale and Porcello were just 30.
Hopefully some of your younger guys end up as good as he was / is. Bello and Whitlock seem promising; but the guys in the minors aren’t really seen as prospects, yet. Hopefully we start seeing more development out of these guys at the higher levels as time goes on.
Fair — hasty reply on my part and I don’t know how I forgot him (though he only had two more years of team control)
I agree with the "low IQ" part. A more egregious example in that game was in the top of the 10th when the Rockies got a two run double because Devers wasn't playing the line. If the batter gets a hit between third and short, maybe or maybe not a run scores, worst case it's a single run in with runners still on first and second. But a hit down the line scores two runs and you lose the potential double play. It's Defense 101, high school stuff.
Unless that's the first ball in 5 years that the hitter has hit down the line. I dont know if that's true, just that "always play the line" is not the hard and fast rule it once was. Now it's closer to just another shifting strategy.
I've always found it rather puzzling that a team managed by Alex Cora, who was one of the smartest and more fundamentally sound players during his own playing career, could be so consistently bad at the basic fundamentals.
Sorry, been doing (gasp) work for a couple hours and haven't had a chance to respond.
Your post is very logical. I agree that the 2011 signings led to the down 2012-2015 period because the guys they signed / traded for just weren't that good and had to be cut / Punto'd. It's not entirely dissimilar to the Sale and Price contracts leading to the current period. At least 2018 gave us 108 regular season wins and another 11 playoff wins.
One difference this go around is that the Sale contract was an unforced error - that contract simply wasn't necessary, the way that the Price one was (and of course the Price contract was because of the unforced error with Lester, but I digress).
That all being said - I come back to the question of why Houston, the MFY, and the Dodgers are all able to hunt 100 wins annually for a good length of time and it not coming back to bite them (at least yet). I think there is a way to hunt 100 wins without going all-in on the 2011 "superteam" concept. Obviously those 3 teams have been doing it better than everyone else for the past ~6 years (and longer for the Dodgers). Once upon a time it felt like the Red Sox were in that status.
I've often had this same thought. It's quite the paradox.
Edit: also, I'm agreeing with SJH way too much for my own liking recently.
Fair but October 19 was after the Orioles drafted Adley and Gunnar
Just like people had a better appreciation of the Red Sox farm system after they lucked into Mayer, you kind of had to know Adley, at least, was probably going to turn into a franchise player.
To me, the terrible defense this team plays is 100% on Bloom especially the infield defense. With the shift almost gone, how did he not know that he needed players that were better defensively? It comes off as being unprepared and should be a fireable offense. The up-the-middle defense is likely one of the 2 or 3 worst in the game and you're sunk if that's the case. There's below average to poor defense at almost every position on the diamond with the exception of RF. I'm sick and tired of trying to shoehorn players at positions they're not equipped to succeed.
I want him gone as soon as possible. Whatever he's trying to do is clearly not working. Any help from the farm is a ways off and there's a greater chance that a majority of those players aren't difference makers than the other way. Give me a GM who can utilize analytics but can blend that with actual people who can make baseball decisions on personnel.
I want him gone as soon as possible. Whatever he's trying to do is clearly not working. Any help from the farm is a ways off and there's a greater chance that a majority of those players aren't difference makers than the other way. Give me a GM who can utilize analytics but can blend that with actual people who can make baseball decisions on personnel.
Houston's ass was pre-bit. 74, 76, 56, 55, 51, and 70, 86, and 84 wins between 2009 and 2016.
Even NYY -- "hunting 100" is subjective, but they were between 85 and 91 wins from 2013-17.
No answer on the Dodgers.
Al the objective people are in the cemetary.
Right but the Sox only had 3 years in that range before they had to pay their penance. I guess you could count 2019 because obviously that roster was constructed to run it back after 2018. Whereas Houston and the MFY have been going strong at 90+ wins since 2017. That's nearly double as long as the Sox.
Edit: it's kind of amazing that Houston has four 100+ win seasons since 2017, and the Sox have only accomplished that once in my lifetime.
Well he did sign Yu Chang, a guy who is currently 11th in (cumulative) outs above average among shortstops despite missing four-fifths of the season.
In general I agree, because the GM gets the players, and if they suck, it's his players doing the sucking. But.....
You think "he didn't know?"
He already got Story who, at 2B or SS would likely be good enough in a post-shift world. I dont know for sure, but I thought Hernandez was a capable 2Bman?
That they're using their 4th or 5th string SS could be part of that up the middle defense problem.
Wong seems to be a plus defender though.
uh... you missed his entire point... @joe dokes is literally saying that HOU's current success is because they had a full on tank job for 5+ straight years.. 3 straight #1 picks (2012-2014) and then the #2 pick in 2015.. and then the 5th pick the following year!
The Astros seem to have a never ending supply of guys like Framber Valdez, Luis Garcia, Jose Urquidy, Cristian Javier. I don’t believe any of them were taken with the first pick of any draft.
No I get that, but they're now going on 7 years of chasing 100 wins. They haven't had to change their approach. Did their full on tank really buy them this long of a stretch? If so, I would totally sign up for a 5 year tank for the Red Sox if it meant 100+ wins in 4 out of 5 years (aside from 2020) and 95+ wins in 5 straight years.uh... you missed his entire point... @joe dokes is literally saying that HOU's current success is because they had a full on tank job for 5+ straight years.. 3 straight #1 picks (2012-2014) and then the #2 pick in 2015.. and then the 5th pick the following year!
Edit: and when did the MFY tank? Their last losing season was 1992
The Red Sox are 1.5 years (of mostly somewhere between bad and average baseball) away from being up 2-1 against those Astros in the ALCS. I agree with you, but the very fact that this thread exists makes me think the bulk of Red Sox nation would not put up with a 5 year tank. I think ownership knows this, hence them trying to thread the needle of a system overhaul while also trying to compete at the major league level.
edit: I dont actually agree, I would not put up with a 5 year tank. I much prefer their current approach, knowing it's more difficult to pull off.
I think I got your point. But whatever the granular details, Friedman and Cashman are good at their jobs and every aspect of those teams' success and failure is theirs. Not looking to start a different debate, but almost every discussion about "these Sox" starts with the guy that put together "those Sox."
The Astros and Yankees also seem to do a very good job in the international free agent market. You can get a lot of bang for your buck throwing money at dozens of Carribean and Central American 16 year olds. Some of them turn into the next Devers or Xander or Big Papi. Losing that IFA pool money a few years ago was another thing that hurt the Red Sox system.
You're thinking of Yoshi's former teammate, Yoshi Yamamoto. I'm pretty sure Boston has Masataka Yoshida burning up the phone lines to recruit his former teammate here if/when he gets posted next winter.
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One liner aside, I'd much prefer a 5 year tank where they get top picks to this pretending to win trend of the last few years. Why is their system ranked half decently? Because they have Mayer, who was a top 5 pick. What's the point of winning 78 or 84 games or whatever? They're a boring team anyway. Their fundamentals suck. They have old players on one year contracts. I'd rather they just openly suck.
That's fair.
Ha, I appreciated the one liner...I was only using that to show we havent had to put up with 5 years yet. And the main point of my post is that there is almost zero chance this fan base would put up with that tanking approach, although for the reasons you stated I totally understand it - just wouldnt be my preference.
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