Cross posting my own thoughts from the "Throttle" thread as it might be better here.
Where did the idea that the Sox will, would, or really ever have just blow through the Luxury Tax to start a year (2024 or any year) ever originate. They rarely do.
FSG has owned the team for two decades, and have pretty much always adhered to a luxury tax budget. Somewhere along the line (and this was before Warner's Full Throttle comment) this alternate reality where they'd spend massive money going into a season became accepted, and I don't know where or why. They're
never really done that.
I'm using Cots because it nicely lays out previous year's payrolls, if this is not a valid site, someone correct me.
If formatting doesn't come out well, I have year, Luxury Tax Threshold, Sox budget to start the year (the ** are for years that the payroll ended the season above the LTT threshold).
2003 - LTT = $117m; RSP = $99.9M; (Below 1)
2004 - $120.5; $127.2 (Above 1)**
2005 - $128M; $123.5 (Below 2)
2006 - $136.5; $120.1 (Below 3)**
2007 - $148m; $133.3 (Below 4)**
2008 - $155m; $133.4m (Below 5)
2009 - $162m; $121m (Below 6)
2010 - $170m; $168.1m (Below 7)**
2011 - $178m; $163.8m (Below 8)
2012 - $178m; $175.3m (Below 9)
2013 - $178m; $154.5m (Below 10)
2014 - $189m; $156.4m (Below 11)
2015 - $189m; $184.3m (Below 12)
2016 - $189m; $197.9m (Above 2)**
2017 - $195m; $197m (Above 3)
2018 - $197m; $233.7m (Above 4)**
2019 - $206m; $236.2m (Above 5)**
2020 - Not sure how to properly calculate that because of the prorated numbers, we all know they were (in)famously at this point below, however - Below 13.
2021 - $210m; $180.2m (Below 14)
2022 - $230m; $206.6m (Below 15)
2023 - $233m; $187.2m (Below 16)
So in the past 20 seasons, they've started the season below the luxury tax limit 16 times, above it 5 (every season with DDski and 2004).
Further, over the past 20 seasons, they've finished the year below the Luxury Tax Threshold 13 times, above the luxury tax limit 7 times (including 3 of the 4 seasons with DDski).
Generally speaking, they start they year below it 80% of the time, and finish below it 65% of the time. So again, where on Earth did this idea that they'd just blow through it (or that they don't have a pretty general budget of starting the year below the Luxury Tax Threshold) even come from?
Luxury Tax Thresholds
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Major_League_Baseball_luxury_tax
Sox Payrolls
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/al-east/boston-red-sox/