foulkehampshire said:
The problem with the Ellsbury contract is that he was never really an elite player, outside of 2011.
I'm sure the Yankees realized this too, but thought that a broad base of skills (defense, base-running, contact) would end up being pretty solid throughout the contract. Most of the injuries he has were of the fluke nature (impact related), which really didn't indicate a brittle player.
The real culprit seems to be a declining BABIP. He used to regularly post BABIP's in the .320-.340 range, but the last 2 years he's hovered around .300. It doesn't really seem like his approach has altered too much, though his GB% has dropped to the mid-low 40's range, as opposed to sitting at 50%+. Maybe his ability to beat out grounders has diminished and he's trying to hit more line drives?
His SB totals indicate he still has his speed.
The real red flag should have been the relative lack of power in his 2013 season. (He peaked with a .552 SLG in his age 27, 2011 season, was injured in 2012, and slugged .426 as a 29 year old in 2013.)
He does not really have a broad base of skills though - his speed/base stealing is excellent, his catch-the-ball defense is good, and his OBP is decent but not elite. OTOH, he has no arm, can't stay on the field, and has only average-ish power at best.
Which isn't to say he's not a good player, or shouldn't be starting. He's a speedy, catch the ball CF, who gets on base at a .320-.350 clip. Offensively, he's basically a slightly faster version of Brett Gardner. (That's not worth 25 million for each of the next 5 seasons though.)
I know there's this mantra out there that fast players age well, but if Ellsbury loses a step his value will plummet.