I think the topic of X's lack of HR power so far this year is worthy of a discussion but as has been pointed out his overall offensive production has been pretty damned good. I would rather he look to drive the ball a bit more but the results are solid.On pace for 0 hrs and 48 RBI. Ive seen a couple articles in the past week, but he really is getting a pass for a complete lack of power.
That dog doesn't make me askeert.
Is there any info out there on the value difference between doubles and HR? Because while 2 doubles and a HR both equal to 4 bags (and thus affect SLG the same, albeit in different numbers of ABs), the HR is a guaranteed score whereas the doubles are not. Not trying to be dense here, but I'm thinking about it in concrete terms--is there more value to hitting 40 doubles and 14 HR, than 28 HR and 12 doubles? There's obviously 14 more hits in the former, but what about from an expected runs perspective?X isn't the first guy to have a lack of HRs obscure his offensive value:
Salty, in 2012, hit 25 home runs and slugged .454. Pretty good for a catcher right? But in 2013 his home run total fell to 14, yet he slugged 466 because his doubles went from 17 to 40 and his BA increased by 50 points.
People really need to stop worrying about HRs from X. He can hit none all season long if he still put up a 120 OPS+.
This is exactly the kind of calculation that goes into the wOBA (and therefore wRC+) formula. A 120 wRC+ reflects the same run-producing value regardless of whether there are home runs in it or not. Xander has the best wRC+ of his career so far; therefore, he's contributing more to the Sox' offense than ever before, whether he's hitting HR or not.Is there any info out there on the value difference between doubles and HR? Because while 2 doubles and a HR both equal to 4 bags (and thus affect SLG the same, albeit in different numbers of ABs), the HR is a guaranteed score whereas the doubles are not. Not trying to be dense here, but I'm thinking about it in concrete terms--is there more value to hitting 40 doubles and 14 HR, than 28 HR and 12 doubles? There's obviously 14 more hits in the former, but what about from an expected runs perspective?
To add to Savin's response, yes:Is there any info out there on the value difference between doubles and HR? Because while 2 doubles and a HR both equal to 4 bags (and thus affect SLG the same, albeit in different numbers of ABs), the HR is a guaranteed score whereas the doubles are not. Not trying to be dense here, but I'm thinking about it in concrete terms--is there more value to hitting 40 doubles and 14 HR, than 28 HR and 12 doubles? There's obviously 14 more hits in the former, but what about from an expected runs perspective?
Xander's fielding numbers are not that promising in my view. UZR/150 comes in at just a little worse than average among shortstops, while Defensive Runs Saved has Bogaerts at well below average every year but one. His range on grounders is subpar and while his arm is usually accurate, his double-clutching release has cost him more than one baserunner.He's been able to become a more-than serviceable defensive SS, and seems to get better every year...I thought he'd be shifting to 3B at this point based on scouting reports.
So then who will play shortstop?Xander's fielding numbers are not that promising in my view. UZR/150 comes in at just a little worse than average among shortstops, while Defensive Runs Saved has Bogaerts at well below average every year but one. His range on grounders is subpar and while his arm is usually accurate, his double-clutching release has cost him more than one baserunner.
As for the timing of his move to 3B, I think that when Devers shows that he can't play 3B, Bogaerts will show that he can.
Except last year, when his 1st half/2nd half WRC+ splits were 131/92, and he was around something like 140-150 at the end of May. So my main question is what he can sustain over a full season.Xander has the best wRC+ of his career so far; therefore, he's contributing more to the Sox' offense than ever before, whether he's hitting HR or not.
Just trying to understand - there are 54 2B+HR on the 63 expected runs side but only 40 2B+HR on the 58 runs side of your comparison. Based on the figures you used, it looks more like doubles are less valuable than HRs. 40 2B would be 40 expected runs vs 12 2B and 28 HR = 58 expected runs. So, what am I missing that made it work?To answer your question, 40 doubles x 1.00 + 14 HR x 1.65 = 63.1 expected runs, while 12 doubles x 1.00 + 28 HR x 1.65 = 58.2 expected runs. The season with more doubles is a bit more valuable, all else being equal.
Unless I'm misreading or misunderstanding your question, it looks like you left out the HR total on the when you added things up. 40 doubles and 14 HR are worth a few runs more than 12 doubles and 28 HR.Just trying to understand - there are 54 2B+HR on the 63 expected runs side but only 40 2B+HR on the 58 runs side of your comparison. Based on the figures you used, it looks more like doubles are less valuable than HRs. 40 2B would be 40 expected runs vs 12 2B and 28 HR = 58 expected runs. So, what am I missing that made it work?
Can anyone comment on the psychological impact of HRs vs. doubles on the opposition, both from a nagging issue of having someone still on base vs the immediate impact of the HR?
More on this: I went to see where Xander stood in the L/Str% column. Sure enough, he is very high. But it turns out he's not only not the highest in baseball, he's not even the highest on the Red Sox. Here's a scattergram of the age (X-axis) and L/Str% (Y-axis) of players with >130 2017 PA.What all this seems to add up to is that he's watching a lot of strikes go by. And sure enough, his L/Str percentage is a pretty astounding 36.8%--previous career high 31.4%, league average 27.0%.
OK, now I get it but I had to go back to the original question you were trying to answer where there were 14 more hits in one side of the equation. That was the part I didn't originally understand. Thanks for re-explaining.Unless I'm misreading or misunderstanding your question, it looks like you left out the HR total on the when you added things up. 40 doubles and 14 HR are worth a few runs more than 12 doubles and 28 HR.
It was basically trying to understand the statistics behind SJH's post #7. Also, is there somewhere to look up wRC+? I looked on bref and couldn't find it.OK, now I get it but I had to go back to the original question you were trying to answer where there were 14 more hits in one side of the equation. That was the part I didn't originally understand. Thanks for re-explaining.
FangraphsIt was basically trying to understand the statistics behind SJH's post #7. Also, is there somewhere to look up wRC+? I looked on bref and couldn't find it.
It was basically trying to understand the statistics behind SJH's post #7. Also, is there somewhere to look up wRC+? I looked on bref and couldn't find it.
While I'm not exactly 'concerned' about Xander, he started like this last year. Are we going to see another extended slump/crash back to earth in the second half?Bogaerts is now hitting a tidy .335/.398/.470/.867, 131 ops+
#1 ranked AL SS in ops
#1 ranked AL SS in obp
#1 ranked AL SS in sb
#2 ranked AL SS in runs
#1 ranked AL SS in hits
#1 ranked AL SS in avg
#1 ranked AL SS in triples
Not bad for a guy who has been, ahem, "underperforming".
This is high, and should be expected lower, but don't expect it to come crashing down. Bogaerts' BABIP over the last 1500 PA is like .360.BABIP: .400 (career high).
I honestly think these sort of reactions are fueled by the fantasy baseball world blurring with reality. Believing value to be so tethered to stats like HR or SB absolutely infects the ability to see the bigger picture for some people.Right? We have a legitimate home-grown superstar shortstop on our team, and the only thing people say about him is OMG OH NOEZ THE HRS. That's Cafardo-esque in its ability to miss the forest for the trees.
Agreed. It was sort of a dopey way of raising the worthwhile question of Bogaerts' very interesting offensive profile.I'm giving the OP a pass. The point was off the mark, but it spurred some interesting discussion and analysis.
http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/xander-bogaerts-stats-fantasy-red-sox-video-hits-home-runs-walks-strikeouts/5tcfdjay0pgl1o9kbi4vcqeoxThe league average in 0-2 counts is .164/.193/.252. That’s pretty putrid, but considering the hitter is four balls from a walk but only one strike from an out, you would expect such a slash line. Now hold that thought because here’s Bogaerts with two strikes: .302/.302/.476. This single approach shows up in his spray charts too. Aside from pulling ground ball outs, Bogaerts’ hits are mostly evenly spread around the field. Because the league is so focused on power, pitchers are focused on preventing power. They do this by pitching outside, outside, outside and also outside.
I'd honestly say that this season and a shown willingness to even do it to begin with was realistically his now or never point there. As even in the somewhat unlikely event he does late bloom 2500+ PA's into his career, and busts out that put-it-all together/breakthrough season in 2018 (that hopefully includes the consistent display of power as well), Boras will most certainly take him to free agency at that point. Which then means premium money - obviously making the risk vs reward factor a lot less sexy for us. Especially with surrounding LT concerns.Again, he is still very young--younger than Aaron Judge, a month older than Gary Sanchez--but next year is going to be huge in terms of deciding whether he's even worth considering extending.