If that goes down in history as the McCloud play that's extremely unfair to him.
Is It Over Now? Chiefs/Niners SB Thread
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
In their scoring drive at the end of the second quarter, here were their run plays:
McCaffrey for 5
Mitchell for 7
Mitchell for 1 plus a 15-yard penalty
They added a 6 yard run before the half. Four carries, 19 yards. They had found a little something there, but at the start of the third quarter, for three straight possessions, they simply didn't run it.
Barnwell in his ESPN column has an illustration of how the Chiefs loaded the box vs the run during the 3rd quarter.
To me the overall game plan was very balanced and the numbers back that up. The 49ers were taking what was given them vs a very good defense. A lot of the finger pointing seems like, well, like finger pointing. A very tight game. Well played on both sides. Sometimes there's no scapegoats despite our need for them.
I do think the 9ers should have kicked off in OT, but also get that it's defensible either way.
They started one of those drives with a run and got zero yards. The run game wasn't working for SF last night. That was a big reason they lost.
It was the third of the three drives, when they did absolutely nothing on all pass plays the first two drives.
On their TD and FG drives at the end of the fourth Q and OT, they ran 8 times for 32 yards. You're right, @Super Nomario - they didn't run with great effectiveness, but it wasn't like they couldn't run at all. They just needed to stick with it.
At least DiCaprio enjoyed the game.
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3QVLx2ugme/?igsh=MWczdjEwc2VvMTZ2cg==
https://www.instagram.com/reel/C3QVLx2ugme/?igsh=MWczdjEwc2VvMTZ2cg==
I think there is way too much weight being placed in the analysis of ~50/50 decisions and roster construction in what was an extremely close game.
I don’t think the SFO play calling decisions were in the same league as in the SEA-NE Super Bowl, and even that goal line pass was defensible.
I don’t think the SFO play calling decisions were in the same league as in the SEA-NE Super Bowl, and even that goal line pass was defensible.
Romo was saying similar last night and this mentality has never made a lot of sense to me. They ran 31 times. What, was the 32nd suddenly gonna be a 50-yarder? The running game wasn't working; at some point, the solution has to be "less of it" and not "more of it."
The 9ers had 4 absolutely critical mishaps.
*CMC fumble on opening drive-takes at least 3 off the board.
*Muffed punt handing them 7.
*Missed PAT.
*Holding call inside the 10 on OT drive.
Remove any one of the first 3 they win.
*CMC fumble on opening drive-takes at least 3 off the board.
*Muffed punt handing them 7.
*Missed PAT.
*Holding call inside the 10 on OT drive.
Remove any one of the first 3 they win.
At the end of the first half (before their three drives where they only ran once in 9 plays) they ran 4 times for 19 yards. And in their last two scoring drives they ran 8 times for 32 yards.
It's what they do best. Run the ball. They weren't getting stoned. They just didn't rip off any huge runs. But they still gained yards. Those 12 rushes above totaled 51 yards - That's 4.3 yards per carry. Below what they normally get but that's still effective.
Anyway, whatever. I'm just glad it wasn't the Patriots losing. LOL
They averaged 4.8 YPC in the regular season ... which is great! And 8.4 NY/A passing, which is obviously better. Last night they were worse at both, but still doubly effective at passing than rushing.
Not to mention Dre Greenlaw tearing his Achilles just running onto the field.
Or, KC wins in regulation because instead of settling for a FG to tie after the miss, Reed goes for it on 4th down and end up with a TD.
But yeah, the turnovers were the difference for the 'niners.
I think it comes more down to the muffed punt and to a lesser degree the PAT, since KC also had an RB fumble on 1st and 10 in even better field position than CMC's, and the SF holding call in OT was only even possible because KC had a defensive holding call a few min earlier that made that drive possible.
On the kickoff-to-start-OT note, to me the best logic for Shanahan kicking off first (not that he actually was thinking this...) was that the SF D just gave up a long drive to Mahomes a couple minutes before at the end of regulation, were probably pretty tired, and would be thrown right back out there if they deferred.
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Agreed that KC didn't do anything special to get that fumble, but not sure it was super unlucky for SF. Their special teams player didn't know where the punt was and got hit by it.
As soon as that happens, it's more likely getting recovered by the kicking team, since the return team is mostly blocking rather than heading towards the ball. It's not bad luck if you are clumsy enough to get hit by the punt
I think I am wrong, but didn't they convert the 2nd and 12 after the holding play in OT? It ended up being almost exactly where they would have been without the penalty (maybe 1-2 yards back).
Sure, conversely if Pacheco doesn't fumble on 1st and goal the Chiefs probably win in regulation.
Also had Mahomes throw a pick, etc.
No team plays perfectly, also on the PAT... if they're up 4 instead of 3 the Chiefs probably try a lot harder to score the TD in regulation over worrying about the clock, and given how that drive was going.....
Every time you lose unless you get blown out you can point to a couple plays that would have flipped it. Of course so can the other team.
You can’t jump to that conclusion though.
Moody shanks an XP attempt low almost into the back of his lineman’s head. SF is up 16-13. Next drive KC has the ball on the SF 6 and kicks a FG on 4th down to tie. Good chance if they’re instead down 4 they run the same play they used in OT and go up 20-17. Who knows what happens then. Or play it out the same way it happened. SF settles for a FG to tie 20-20 and KC kicks a FG to win 23-20 with 2 seconds left in the game.
In a close, one score game, so many things can change the outcome. When you consider the fumble recovery stats from the game - KC lost the ball five times and recovered four of those and they got two SF fumbles - and the score its crazy.
The rushing and passing stats were all pretty close with KC being marginally better but not overwhelmingly.
These two teams were pretty evenly matched. You can certainly argue that decision making or certain plays swung the outcome (I would pay money to see any person arguing that McCloud could have easily fallen on that ball try to re-enact the move they are talking about at game speed - he barely had time to even track that thing) but to me the team with marginally more talent (especially at the most important position) won.
I don't know that its much more complicated than that.
The Unexpected Points blog does a pretty good job of an analytical look at a lot of the stuff being discussed in this thread:
https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/super-bowl-lviii-chiefs-49ers-advanced
Here's their table of the most impactful plays of the game based on expected points added:
They have the running back fumbles basically balancing out, with the fumbled punt being recovered by KC as the biggest play of the game.
On whether it's better to kick off or receive in OT, they think that the advantages and disadvantages pretty much balance out:
https://unexpectedpoints.substack.com/p/super-bowl-lviii-chiefs-49ers-advanced
Here's their table of the most impactful plays of the game based on expected points added:
They have the running back fumbles basically balancing out, with the fumbled punt being recovered by KC as the biggest play of the game.
On whether it's better to kick off or receive in OT, they think that the advantages and disadvantages pretty much balance out:
There's this opinion on SF's clock management at the end of the half:
Not sure I 100% agree with all of it, but the blog post has some interesting analytical takes.
I posted upthread that Edelman and other kick returners have been heard even on TV screaming to get the hell out of there. In other words, I can’t get to it and I don’t want it hitting any of you other guys, becoming a free ball and the other team recovering it. I don’t think Ray Ray did any such thing.
Boomer was talking about this on WFAN as well. Sure it’ll continue to be a focal point of ST coaches going forward.
I'm not saying tha tShanahan necessarily USED the experience, but KC is obviously more experienced having been there most recently (and frequently for that matter).
Fair point, but KC still had enough gas in the tank to prevent a TD whereas SF did not.
And, don't get me wrong, there were a lot of reasons why KC won last night, but I believe that experience was a factor.
I don’t really know anything about playing the QB position, but would Purdy have been able to change the protection on that final play once he got a look at the defense at the line?
probably, though in the 49ers case their center calls the protections.
Real problem is that while it was a dumb protection design (weird center pop pull to sell a playfake?) the right guard appeared to miss what his assignment was. He slides left to the same guy the LG had, the LT gives a help stab at Jones then slides outside to the guy Kittle chips. Probably the safety was supposed to run free. Instead Jones runs almost free.
Nobody can be 100% sure without the playbook, but Mike Golic Jr thinks the same:
View: https://twitter.com/minakimes/status/1757156585087086635
As does Geoff Schwartz
View: https://twitter.com/geoffschwartz/status/1757067554961453560
The replays showed him motioning. I can't imagine that he'd motion but not yell whatever their word is. Did he try to scoop and not just fall on it or was he just reacting to the way an oblong ball bounces?
EDIT: This guy says "it won't get talked about". I mean, it's kind of a talking point for a lot of folks.
View: https://twitter.com/iam_johnw/status/1756911144550203843
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so Travis is proposing at the parade on Valentine's Day right (while she is on a flight to Australia)?
This isn't really analogous though, because in college don't the teams flip which team goes first after each round? (1, 2, 2, 1, 1, 2, 2, 1...)
And a lot of dollars bet in Vegas
View: https://twitter.com/howardstutz/status/1757243085665566853?s=46
View: https://twitter.com/howardstutz/status/1757243085665566853?s=46
Great place, I think better for a drinking atmosphere. Sushi was about as good as any sushi I’ve had, top 5. Yakitori was good-ish. I can see why you love it.
8 people, with drinks, shitload of food…$380. Cheapest 8 person work dinner I’ve ever had.
thanks!
Yes unless you are Deion Sanders.
But the vast vast majority of OT games end after the first OT.
I was just thinking this morning that 49ers fans are lowkey some of the most tormented of football fans over the last generation. They haven't won a Super Bowl in 30 years, they've had large stretches of that time when they've stunk terribly, and while they did make it to 3 Super Bowls in that time, they lost each one in excruciating fashion. Oh and their most promising team got blown up because the head coach and the GM couldn't get along well enough to work together and the owner backed the GM.
The long fg by Buckner had the same trajectory as the blocked PAT, there just wasn't a hand in the right place to block it.
Is Jim Harbaugh -> Jim Tomsula the biggest downgrade in the history of football coaches? It’s got to be at least in the history of football coach Jims.
It's actually worse than this: View: https://twitter.com/fbgchase/status/1756894503653269862
All but one of those 8 seasons ended in awful losses.
- 1997: Lost at home to GB 23-10. I attended this one, a dreary game in the rain. Frustrating since it was the third year in a row GB knocked them out, but not excruciating.
- 2011: Lost at home to NY in OT. This is the game where Kyle Williams twice fumbled punts, including in OT to let NY kick the winning field goal.
- 2012: Lost the Super Bowl to the Ravens when they had first and goal on the 7-yard line with 2 minutes left, needing a TD to win the game, and couldn't score.
- 2013: Lost 23-17 in Seattle in the game where Richard Sherman tipped away the potential winning TD pass for an INT.
- 2019: Blew a 10-point 4th-quarter lead to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl.
- 2021: Blew a 10-point 4th-quarter lead to the Rams in the CCG after Jacquaski Tartt dropped the game-sealing INT.
- 2022: Lost in Philly when all the QBs got hurt.
- 2023: Lost the Super Bowl in OT after leading by 10 early in the game and by 3 both with 2 minutes left and in OT.
Now (rightly) no one has much sympathy because they won 5 titles in 14 years immediately before this. And they've had some great wins in the last 30 years: three conference championship games wins (in two of which they came back from 17-0 and 24-7), the Catch II and the Catch III, beating Green Bay five times in the playoffs in a row (including twice in GB), beating Dallas twice. So it's not like the Lions or the Browns or the Bills. But there have been some rough ones.
Didn't realize this until today- as far as the coin toss goes for the overtime, unlike at the beginning of the game; if you want to go last, you DON'T defer, you elect to kick off.
If you defer, or choose a goal to defend (99% irrelevant in a game indoors like Sunday) you give the opponent the choice.
I'm surprised that the NFL even has "defer" as an option, but from what I've read, they do.
If you defer, or choose a goal to defend (99% irrelevant in a game indoors like Sunday) you give the opponent the choice.
I'm surprised that the NFL even has "defer" as an option, but from what I've read, they do.
There is not. There is a two-minute break between each new 15-minute session but play picks up from the point of the last play of the previous session.
I’ll admit that I had no idea the OTs acted as quarters. I was baffled that KC was letting so much clock run until Nance mentioned with like 20 seconds left that it was a quarter system, not the end of the game.