Jayson Tatum's Rise to the Top
- Thread starter Marbleheader
- Start date
Let me put this notion out there to see if it lands with anyone....
In thinking about Tatum might the historical comp more Tim Duncan---always great, and great at a lot of things, super consistently---than any of the various "alphas" who we typically think about (or the current ones)?
Put a different way, maybe part of Tatum's secret sauce is things that we don't always properly value - consistency and versatility. So in any given game, or stretch, he isn't the best---but across a lot of games and a lot of situations and changes, he begins to approach that level?
In thinking about Tatum might the historical comp more Tim Duncan---always great, and great at a lot of things, super consistently---than any of the various "alphas" who we typically think about (or the current ones)?
Put a different way, maybe part of Tatum's secret sauce is things that we don't always properly value - consistency and versatility. So in any given game, or stretch, he isn't the best---but across a lot of games and a lot of situations and changes, he begins to approach that level?
Duncan was back-to-back MVP and was regarded as the best player in the league by pretty much everyone except intense Kobe stans. I do think Duncan was a much more traditional great player, in the mold of Russell, Magic, Bird, Walton, etc. in that he understood exactly how to get his teammates involved and what needed to be done to get wins beyond just putting up a bunch of points. Jordan kind of changed the mold--before him the scoring machines never really won anything. Wilt had to learn to be a different player to win. Rick Barry too. Other guys like Gervin, Dominique, Dantley, etc. never won anything. Jordan was kind of the first guy to win a bunch of scoring titles and win championships--it's a very rare accomplishment, but also kind of changed the public's definition of an "alpha".
I don't think Tatum is the best player in the league, I'd have him clearly ranked below Jokic and Giannis. In that sense I don't think he is underrated, be he absolutely needs to be firmly in the first team All-NBA discussion. I think he is closer to Durant or LeBron--guys who put up lower counting stats than some of their peers, but played unselfishly and had tremendous team success. Tatum is such a gifted scorer and it's always going to be his best attribute--unlike Duncan who could score at an elite rate, but his best skill was always defense and rebounding. He's never going to be underrated in that regard--but I think he is very clearly taking a backseat to some of his contemporaries in terms of leading the league in some counting stats, in order to drive team success.
I don't think Tatum is the best player in the league, I'd have him clearly ranked below Jokic and Giannis. In that sense I don't think he is underrated, be he absolutely needs to be firmly in the first team All-NBA discussion. I think he is closer to Durant or LeBron--guys who put up lower counting stats than some of their peers, but played unselfishly and had tremendous team success. Tatum is such a gifted scorer and it's always going to be his best attribute--unlike Duncan who could score at an elite rate, but his best skill was always defense and rebounding. He's never going to be underrated in that regard--but I think he is very clearly taking a backseat to some of his contemporaries in terms of leading the league in some counting stats, in order to drive team success.
I don't really think that is that absurd of a difference. Giannis gets 4 more FT attempts per game (basically two more trips to the line), that isn't that big of a difference. Giannis averages just under 16 drives per game, while Tatum averages 9 drives per game. Giannis is also the best finisher at the rim in the league, and he's known as a poor free throw shooter, so fouling him is an easy decision, which is not the case for Tatum, who is an excellent free throw shooter.
Also, while I'm sure Giannis occasionally gets some soft calls--he also often gets refereed like Shaq or Gronk. The guy gets whacked all the time.
I like that a lot.
In thinking about it RIGHT NOW, I would say no, Duncan had more accolades than Tatum and is considered the best of that post-MJ, pre-Bron era...
But, by the time his career ends, I think this could end up looking very prescient.
Regardless, I think the last paragraph is spot on. @ManicCompression had a very similar post and I like it.
One of the things about Tatum that's unique, and I think KD was very similar in this, is that Tatum's a very malleable superstar. You can plop him into a lot of lineups and he's able to work within them while elevating them.
To be clear, it's not yet arguable that Tatum is as good as Tim Duncan, and odds are he never will be.
But the archetype---always great, always top 5ish, and not often first....plus the reasons why (consistency, versatility, teammwork, growth)...kind of works for me.
But the archetype---always great, always top 5ish, and not often first....plus the reasons why (consistency, versatility, teammwork, growth)...kind of works for me.
I’ve always hated doing comps for Tatum, because he’s incorporated so much from so many guys. But as far as what he does on the court, I see some type of hybrid between KD, Dirk, and Kawhi.
More athletic Paul Pierce? Maybe Pierce with a dash of KD?
The first two names that come to mind, for me, are Pierce and pre-injury Paul George...but he's better than both of them. Third is KD.
EDIT: I just looked at BBRef and the top similarity score I like...Carmelo Anthony. Melo with less selfishness and much better defense (probably not as good of a 1 on 1 scorer as Melo but it's very close)
#2 is Cincinnatus Powell ("The Big C") shocked that that comparison hasn't been brought up here yet
Figured that was the case. I’ll take best player on the Championship winner plus All NBA. Fingers crossed that that is his path this season.
yeah, I don't really agree with the Carmelo comp - Tatum is a vastly better, and more versatile defender and also a better teammate and more diverse offensive player (primarily because of volume of 3 balls, but also significantly better passer). I get the stats match fairly well, but the on court and approach feel significantly different to me.
The Durant comps came often and early, but he's a couple inches shorter, he's quicker, and isn't even close to as efficient offensively. My favorite comp has been a [slightly better] Paul George.
And I still remember the ringer 2017 nba draft guide, which had his best case scenario as Paul Pierce, Danny Granger (?!?) and Rudy Gay (?!?!?!?). Could've been worse, that same guide had Donovan Mitchell's best case as Norman Powell, Avery Bradley and Gary Harris and Bam Adebayo's base case as Bismack Byombo and Montrezl Harrell.
And I still remember the ringer 2017 nba draft guide, which had his best case scenario as Paul Pierce, Danny Granger (?!?) and Rudy Gay (?!?!?!?). Could've been worse, that same guide had Donovan Mitchell's best case as Norman Powell, Avery Bradley and Gary Harris and Bam Adebayo's base case as Bismack Byombo and Montrezl Harrell.
The PG comps used to make more sense, but Tatum has leveled above that at this point. Tatum also much different in that he goes to the rim way more, and is miles ahead as a finisher. Even before the injury, PG was a 55% TS guy, which for the time wasn’t too bad, but still gets dinged for it.
He will never be as efficient as Durant, but he’s similar in what he forces defenses to do. He’s a better rebounder than any of them, and only Kawhi (who was the best wing defender I’ve seen) could lock guys up to the extent that Tatum has shown capable. PG was more of a team defense menace who wreaked havoc in the passing lanes.
It’s why I hate doing comps so much, especially as Tatum is pretty unique.
He will never be as efficient as Durant, but he’s similar in what he forces defenses to do. He’s a better rebounder than any of them, and only Kawhi (who was the best wing defender I’ve seen) could lock guys up to the extent that Tatum has shown capable. PG was more of a team defense menace who wreaked havoc in the passing lanes.
It’s why I hate doing comps so much, especially as Tatum is pretty unique.
Last edited:
Tatum does so much more screening and offball on offense, and that's enabled by his versatile scoring. At some point Thinking Basketball or JJ will make a video about it, everyone will have a mental hook to hang it on, and his perceived value will go a lot higher than that of Carmelo types.
I've always wondered if George's knee injury robbed him of some of his ceiling. The year before he got hurt he was 23 and was 1st team all defense, 3rd team all-nba...he seemed to bounce back ok, but it feels like it took him 5 years to really catch up to his previous trajectory. 2019 in OKC, he was really as good as Tatum has ever been - he averaged 28/8/4 and lead the league in steals, 1st team all-nba and 1st team all-defense, and was 3rd in the MVP voting. He's spent a significant amount of time injured since then, and obviously he's the clear #2 behind Kawhi while Tatum has been the unquestioned leader of the Celtics since he was 21.
Tatum's offense probably ends up a bit more developed regardless, but George was always a slightly better defender. No comp is perfect, but that one feels more natural than most.
Yeah, Tatum is a lot more of an overall offensive player than Melo was. Melo had a really hard time adjusting to not being the top option on offense in a way Tatum never would. Tatum is already a much better (and willing) passer than Melo, and as you mentioned, he is a WAY more active screener than Melo, who basically never set screens during his prime.
To be fair to Melo, and a good reason why comps are never perfect, Melo played in a different era, one that was undoubtedly less advanced in terms of what players were asked to do offensively. Melo didn't set a lot of screens or playmake a ton because scorings wings during his prime were rarely asked to do those things. If Tatum played in that era, there is a very good chance he wouldn't be nearly as advanced in those regards as he is today.
The demands of the position have changed slightly, but beyond era adjustments, Melo was one of the least impactful superstars in recent history. 19 years in the NBA, 10 all-stars, 6 all-NBA, top 75 player...and only won three playoff series in his entire career (and just a single playoff series win after age 24). Tatum had that many playoff series wins by age 20. Even if their games have some similarities, their on-court impact is miles apart.
Completely agree. This is why I specified pre-injury PG.
One to one comps are always going to be imperfect. Durant has such a different body type and is a better offensive player.
Kawhi is less natural with the ball, worse on offense....but is one of the best defenders ever.
All of them are going to have pretty significant caveats or it has to be an amalgam of a few different players
It's true that Melo might have been better in a different period---he was a really skilled scorer.
You can apply this to a lot of guys though: Steph was lucky to be born when he was; slow-footed offensive-minded centers less so.
Yup, that is the problem with comparing players across different eras, even ones that are not that far apart like Melo and Tatum. The playmaking is a huge difference, and I'm not sure how much of it was Melo's fault versus how different scoring wings are asked to play today (and in general, the average player today is surrounded by more offensive talent than in any other period).
Melo averaged 2.7 apg for his career, and a little over 3 apg at his peak. Looking at the top scorers in today's NBA, you have to go all the way down to Lauri Markkanen, who is 20th in PPG, to find someone with an apg total below 3 per game. To find a non-big, you have to go to Cam Thomas, ranked 38th, to find someone with a lower assist total.
At 25, Tatum is already 52nd all time in playoff points with 2,236. Melo, retired, is 78th with 1,914 - three points ahead of Jaylen Brown.
Those numbers on a 62% TS, despite only 33% from three, which is fun. Defense has been peaking, TO rate is only 8.6% over that time, shooting 75% in the RA, and not surprisingly, a team best +12.0 on/off.
View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1762847626238575045
View: https://twitter.com/Timi_093/status/1762847626238575045
If Tatum upped his selfishness just a tad and say, averaged 32 ppg, he would be in the MVP conversation. The Celtics would still be in first place, probably, but they would be marginally worse and maybe players like White, KP and Jrue wouldn't feel as empowered. It's dumb he isn't at least getting mentioned as a potential Top 3 finisher.
I mean, do you think that's less true for other MVP contenders? i.e., that Jokic or SGA or whoever couldn't score a few more PPG if they really decided to, to the exclusion of "making the right play" and optimizing the team's offense? I feel like every star, more or less, is compromising their own counting stats for the sake of team success. To think otherwise (other than very marginal differences) would seem to require some pretty green-tinted glasses.
Last edited:
I completely agree with you, but I think the depth of the Celts hurts Tatum here. They have so many guys who can score.
I think it's not really about being selfish, rather, I think Jokic, SGA, and Luka all play in systems in which the offense is designed to play through them. If Tatum played on a team like that he'd have better offensive numbers, but it would probably hurt his defense, and he's probably not as gifted of a scorer as Luka or SGA.
Tatum is the perfect fit for this team. He's a superstar who can do the little things and he's an excellent and versatile defender.
Could he win an MVP? Yeah, I think so. Should he win it this year? Probably not.
I'm no expert on this matter, but from rough eye test it seems like Tatum has much less chance to be able to dribble for an extended amount of time compared to say two years ago. It always seems like stars need to be able to hold on to the ball for a bit in order to get into rhythm, and this years C's we always have so many shot-creators and capable ball-handlers/initiators on the floor that it should be harder for the Jays to be get into rhythm than other stars. (That was my biggest worry coming into the season, together with Zinger's health)
It helps and it hurts. If the team were worse, Tatum's counting stats would likely be higher, but if the Celtics were one of the six teams with 37-41 wins (instead of sailing comfortably ahead of the pack with 46 wins), I doubt he'd be seriously in the MVP discussion either. He's obviously in the neighborhood of MVP (he's gonna make 1st team all-NBA for the 3rd straight year and he's by far the best player on by far the best team), anyone who denies that just isn't thinking. At the same time he's 100% not winning, so at the end of the day, does it matter? Even people arguing for his inclusion in the discussion would probably agree that Jokic is the guy anyway.
Maybe Giannis has a real shot if the Bucks close the season strong (and it's really not his fault that Lillard has been disappointed), but that's it.
Tatum is included in a group with KD, LeBron, Embiid, and Steph that are considered the core of the Olympic team this summer. If that doesn't tell you he's made it to the top of the league, not much else will.
The Celtics offense is designed to play through Tatum too. The Celtics just have the best 2-6 in the NBA so they don’t rely on him as much as other superstars
Yeah.. I think the counting stats for the others are higher mainly because they don't have the team that surrounds them like Tatum does. At the end of the day I'm pretty sure Tatum cares a lot more about winning a championship than an MVP...because he talks about winning almost all of the time.
This might be true now, but as he was establishing himself as a player I think the individual accolades did matter a lot to him. All Star, First Team NBA, etc.
It seemed to me that the huge backlash he got from losing the Finals in 2022 affected him a lot, and made him realize that, for him in particular, winning is the only thing that will give him the validation he clearly needs.
Unfortunately, he is no longer 19 
Friday was Jayson Tatum's final game as 25-year old. He finishes with the 6th-most points in NBA history at age-25 or younger, one spot behind his idol Kobe Bryant.
Most Points at Age-25 or Younger
NBA History
LeBron James 16,081
Kevin Durant 14,851
Carmelo Anthony 12,711
Tracy McGrady 12,423
Kobe Bryant 12,215
Jayson Tatum 11,381
Friday was Jayson Tatum's final game as 25-year old. He finishes with the 6th-most points in NBA history at age-25 or younger, one spot behind his idol Kobe Bryant.
Most Points at Age-25 or Younger
NBA History
LeBron James 16,081
Kevin Durant 14,851
Carmelo Anthony 12,711
Tracy McGrady 12,423
Kobe Bryant 12,215
Jayson Tatum 11,381
They are not mutually exclusive. Any player who tells you that winning the MVP isn't super important is flat out lying. Mazzulla knows how important it is to him as well or he wouldn't have reinserted Tatum into a 20-pt game w 7 min to go. Tatum knew he had only a couple minutes to add some numbers which is why his number was called on each of the next 4 possessions. This has been a common theme all year and there is nothing wrong with a star player wanting to win the MVP as that's one of the carrots that drive a player.
Fun article showing where JT ranks all-time before age-26 stats: https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/nba/boston-celtics/where-celtics-jayson-tatum-ranks-all-time-greats-26th-birthday/591764/?partner=yahoo&cid=yahoo
Also shows how amazing LBJ has been.
Also shows how amazing LBJ has been.
Excluding players that didn't go to college (i.e. guys that had an extra year to put up numbers), only Durant and Melo were more productive to start their careers.
Tatum won EC player of the month, second time this season:
View: https://twitter.com/NBAPR/status/1764757714964550121?s=20
View: https://twitter.com/NBAPR/status/1764757714964550121?s=20
A great article surveying Jayson Tatum's career:
https://www.celticsblog.com/2024/2/17/24074355/the-quiet-overwhelming-greatness-of-jayson-tatum
https://www.celticsblog.com/2024/2/17/24074355/the-quiet-overwhelming-greatness-of-jayson-tatum
All of these scoring total stats are so skewed in favor of recent players. Maybe it is the Moneyball world, but probably just the access to stats we all have, but scoring totals were never seen as a measure of who was the best player until recently.Unfortunately, he is no longer 19
Friday was Jayson Tatum's final game as 25-year old. He finishes with the 6th-most points in NBA history at age-25 or younger, one spot behind his idol Kobe Bryant.
Most Points at Age-25 or Younger
NBA History
LeBron James 16,081
Kevin Durant 14,851
Carmelo Anthony 12,711
Tracy McGrady 12,423
Kobe Bryant 12,215
Jayson Tatum 11,381
But, Richard Jefferson brought up a good point, until the recent stat obsessed way of thinking Tatum, best player on by far the best team, would get the MVP.
He's had an excellent season and has as good an argument as any to be the 3rd best player in the league behind Giannis/Jokic, but tonight's game against Denver (just 5-13 for 15 points and 5 turnovers, including missing a wide open corner 3 that could've given Boston the lead with under a minute) absolutely killed his MVP chances, slim as they were to begin with.
Incredibly pathetic game. Just an awful, awful performance.
Denver blitzed him a lot and he had no answer. Looked completely lost.
Everyone else on the Celtics came to play, and Tatum completely shat the bed.
I'm a big Tatum guy and defend him a lot, but that's the kind of performance that will have me nervous in big games in the playoffs. He's absolutely capable of being the 5th or 6th best player for a multi-game playoff stretch. You can't say that about Jokic or Giannis.
(a bit game-thready, but fuck it)
Not really game thready. He has these weird lapses where it looks like his mind is elsewhere. We know what he’s capable of and we won’t hang another banner until we see the good version when it counts.
It sucks even more because the rest of the team came to play They were making lots of mistakes, missed shots, free throws, letting Jokic score, but JB, Holiday KP, DWhite were there to try to win. Tatum felt checked out on both ends.
So when he gets blitzed and passes out of it he’s not aggressive enough, but when he holds the ball and is aggressive he’s labeled as playing hero ball. In a lot of eyes, it seems Tatum just can’t win unless he plays perfect offense. I have more of a concern on defense with him tonight.
Would be really funny to see the takes on JT if he makes the corner 3 to give them the lead. Mind you there’s still :40 left so plenty of time to blame him for a loss too.
I’m sorry but I have to push back on this.
@lovegtm is a Tatum fan. He’s posted multiple times about the gravity Tatum has and how it’s close to prime Curry.
He commented on his opinion of how Tatum played this game. I don’t like to see him painted like some sort of negative Tatum opportunist like this seems to be doing.
EDIT: and he obviously doesn’t need me to stick up for him. I just don’t like when anyone on this board posts anything reasonable and they are painted like extremists.
I'm usually accused of being too supportive of Tatum here. I know what he does well. He wasn't doing it.
It's not that he was passing it out of blitzes. That's perfect. But he was either turning it over or making passes that didn't lead to advantages. The Cs had a really hard time getting Denver in rotation, even with 2 on the ball a lot.
Brutal game from Tatum, not much else to say. I didn't expect him to get MVP, but a game like that against Denver puts any small chance to rest.
He just looked out of sorta all game. A step slow, bad decisions, missing easy shots.
He was also grabbing his wrist a lot, similar to last year. Don't love seeing that, still never really heard what this "injury" is, but its been lingering since last season.
He just looked out of sorta all game. A step slow, bad decisions, missing easy shots.
He was also grabbing his wrist a lot, similar to last year. Don't love seeing that, still never really heard what this "injury" is, but its been lingering since last season.
Relax dude. I wasn’t specifically going after the poster. I’m going after the constant referendums on Tatum after every game like this. Seems like no player in the NBA is judged like he is.
It wouldn’t even matter if he played well and they won. The same critics who come out after every game he doesn’t do something right would be right there the first time it happens in the postseason. The only way the noise will stop is if they win a championship.
It's fine, and I agree he's subject to those constant referenda.
I thought that, for once, it was deserved in this one. He looked uncharacteristically lost wrt handling physicality and aggressive coverages.