Yes, in the end, I can live with the deal and I agree that the deal is "good" in the sense that if it was the best the Sox could do, I am happy they found a way to field a very competitive team notwithstanding the Castillo, Hanley, Panda and Craig deals. Obviously, one can invent deals that would have been bad deals -- 6/160, for example, is not a deal that I would have been happy about no matter how badly we need a hitter like JDM. The deal that Boras got, though, is pretty good and while I'm happy to have JDM, it's fairly close to neutral.I think you're looking at it incorrectly. The question isn't opt-out vs no opt-out. The question is JDM with an opt-out or no JDM. Which do you prefer?
The opt-out has value, and it was (seemingly) part of the cost of getting him to sign on the line which is dotted. It's in the same category of the $110m.
I don't think the "if there's a downside to this deal, then there would have been a downside to a straight 5/110 (or 5/120) too" argument is a valid one. You just can't apply that kind of hindsight analysis to this deal at this moment in time. The question here is what did you give and what did you get. A 5/110 contract is worth far more than this deal at this moment in time, because you are offsetting the concern that it turns into a Panda situation by buying yourself the upside that it turns into a great deal. You are trading upside for downside, and hopefully picking a number where you think the former justifies the latter.Not trying to pick a fight or belabor an argument, but I don’t understand this.
If the Sox signed JDM to a straight, 5-year, $110-million, no-option contract, and then JDM goes full-panda in years one or two, they’d be on the hook for years 3, 4 and 5.
With the year-two player option, if he goes full-panda in years one or two, there’s at least a small chance he exercises the option to leave. Worst case is he doesn’t, and the Sox are no worse off than in the above no-option contract.
So what’s the downside? I suppose it is a healthy JDM mashing in years 1-2, then exercising the option to leave. Two years of good/very good JDM For 2/50 doesn’t seem like much of a downside to me.
What the option here does is that it gives you the panda downside, but you don't get any of the upside -- at least not after the first two years.
Obviously, my position depends on the notion that the player will act rationally. If, after two years, he views his market for the next three years as worth zero to $59,999,999, he will exercise the option. If he views his market as worth more than $60,000,000, he will opt out. (With some fuzziness here -- if he's happy with his kids' school, maybe he doesn't opt out over a few million dollars.)
So, unless you believe that the player will misjudge the market, or will act irrationally, you've bought yourself whatever JDM's upside over $50 million is for 2 years, and and to get it, you've guaranteed a player $110 million, which is a risk to the team of up to $110 million. I'm fine with people arguing that it's totally worth it, but I just don't feel like we're even speaking the same language. (As I was going to post this message, I see that happy has raised the point that the player might act irrationally. That I think is at least an argument that answers what I've been trying to say -- it does not move the needle for me personally. Boras isn't going to let him act irrationally. My view is that in two years, JDM will be, in all senses, a free agent looking at a 3/60 deal (or a 1/22.5 deal). This is a 2 year deal, with a promise to make a guaranteed 3/60 offer when JDM becomes a free agent in 2 years. But I respect others' views on this.)
Drek's points, though, are interesting, and ones I want to think about for a little longer.
Edit: Actually, though, maybe my "in all senses" is wrong even though I put it in bold :O) -- I'm not sure how much a player who owns an opt out who hasn't actually exercised it can actually get an adequate sense of the market like a free agent can. So, that's going overboard. But I should say he's "nearly the functional equivalent of a free agent looking at a 3/60 deal."