The horrific attrition rate for even an early draftee to succeed in MLB cannot be overstated.
It's been ten years since the
2006 draft class: Clayton Kershaw (LHP), Evan Longoria (3B), and Max Scherzer (RHP) all went in the top 12 picks. But so did Kasey Kiker (LHP), Billy Rowell (3B), and Greg Reynolds (RHP). Chris Davis was drafted 148th overall, just before Jeff Samardzija but just after Hector Ambriz.
Of the 44 players taken in the 1st round of 2006:
- 11 (25%) never reached MLB at all;
- 16 (36%) earned a career 1.0 WAR or less at the MLB level;
- 9 (20%) earned a career 1.1 - 5.0 WAR at the MLB level;
- 4 (9%) earned a career 5.1 - 20.0 WAR at the MLB level;
- 4 (9%) became MLB stars (Kershaw, Longoria, Scherzer, and Lincecum).
2006 was considered by baseball insiders as "the worst draft class in history" according to
Keith Law. But the top 4 have thus far earned 1 ROY, 1 MVP, 5 CY, and 15 All-Star selections. Because you never know what a player will do after getting drafted.
By taking whomever you think is the best player on their board during your turn, you draft the person with the best chance just to make it to MLB, much less stick there as a long-term contributor. And the chance of getting all-star quality talent is so low that unless your team picks 1-1, you're inviting retribution from the baseball gods for your hubris just by thinking it. And that's probably true when you're getting the top overall pick, too.
Whether a player can reach MLB at all is the paramount concern even in the first round; the other stuff -- like organizational need -- takes a back seat.