Lester to Cubs: Rent Garments Thread

[Leather]

The one thing no one seems to be mentioning is that Lester said he wanted to retire a Red Sox.  They came back and offered him FOUR years.  THAT is the slap in the face, not the 70 mil.  They should have offered him a Pedroia like deal for 7 or 8 years for 100-120 mil or whatever (just throwing #s out).  He wanted to RETIRE a Red Sox and they came back with a FOUR year offer and that's kind of a fuck-you to some degree.  I think that would have hurt me too after I just said that I want to be a lifetime Red Sox.  At least LOWBALL HIM with a long contract with plenty of bonuses.  

 
And if he wanted to, you know RETIRE a Red Sox, he could have told his agents to counter.  
 
The old slogan "money talks and bullshit walks" goes both ways, you know.   Just because Poor Old Jon Lester says he really wants to retire a member of the Red Sox doesn't mean that A) he's being honest, and isn't simply trying to play the PR card; and B) the Red Sox are obligated to give him more money than they would otherwise.  

 

[CSteinhardt]

That's an interesting way to think about it, but I think that your simplifying assumptions -- most notably the dichotomous distribution between very good and very bad as well as the discounting of year-to-year variance -- are stacked pretty heavily in favor of your conclusion.

My main point is that, given their insider knowledge, the Red Sox were in the best position to know whether Lester's second half was predictive of his performance in 2014 or whether it was not. They got it wrong, and as a result lost an opportunity to sign Lester at what would have been a discount to market value now.

It may have been the case that, as DeJesus Built My Hot Rod argued all spring, they did not really want him back at something that was even that close to market value. There's a reasonable argument that Lester is a #1A and not a #1, and that even 6/$120 is closer to #1 money than they wanted to go.

They can win in 2015 without Lester and the risk that any long-term contract to a pitcher entails; let's see how they go about doing it. But, I think they again are showing far more restraint with their own free agents, this time without even the compensation pick excuse, than they do with other teams' free agents.

Regarding Cespedes, you're not considering the option of taking the packages of prospects that other teams were offering for Lester. What they get in trade for Cespedes almost certainly will be worth more than the compensation pick they would have gotten for Lester, but what we never heard were what they gave up when they chose Cespedes. The value of the second best package available in trade for Lester at last year's deadline is the appropriate comparison to what they get for Cespedes this winter.

 
Fine, but I was also weighting things in your favor by using the Cubs' value instead of his value to the Sox.  The key point here is that Lester had the absolute best-possible year we might have hoped for in 2014 and his value to the Sox was 6/135 after that.  
 
So, OK.  In the best-case scenario, as suggested by his last half-season of 2013, his value to the Sox is 6/135.  If he's the pitcher he showed in the previous three half-seasons, his value to the Sox is 6/30, at most.  Should we offer 6/120?  If so, we have to believe that, on expectation, he's going to have a 2014 that's about 86% as good as he actually did.  Otherwise, making that offer is, on expectation, bad.  The Sox did not have to get it wrong to believe that Lester's second half of 2013 was useful data -- they just had to decide that it didn't overwhelmingly outweigh the previous 2.5 years to the point that, on expectation, his 2014 would be 86% as good as it turned out to be.  And they could easily both be right about that and have it turn out his 2014 was this good, because that's how probabilistic events work.  
 
And, like I said, if you're now confident that you can project Lester based upon the past three half-seasons, I believe we'll be able to raise some money for the Jimmy Fund.  He was a 4.8 WAR pitcher last year.  I'd take a bet that he'll end up worse than 120/135 of that this season, or 4.27 WAR, according to baseball-reference's WAR calculation at the end of 2015.  Would you be willing to bet the over, proceeds to the Jimmy Fund?
 
As for getting Cespedes, we don't know what other packages were available or how much Cespedes will turn out to be worth in trade value, so that's probably a separate discussion.  I stand by my point that it made sense to trade him for the most valuable thing we could get at midseason, but I don't think I know enough to judge whether the particular trade they made was the best one possible.  

 

[LahoudOrBillyC]

Is this issue going to dominate SoSH for the next few years, or will the Ellsbury "debacle" still get some love?  I don't think the latter has received a fair airing yet.

 

[Frank Fenway]

Is this issue going to dominate SoSH for the next few years, or will the Ellsbury "debacle" still get some love?  I don't think the latter has received a fair airing yet.

 
Meh, neither is that bad in the long run. The front office is running things Belichick style and I like it. 

 

[foulkehampshire]

 
Meh, neither is that bad in the long run. The front office is running things Belichick style and I like it. 

 
Except that Belichick teams don't finish in last place. 

 

[nattysez]

 
Meh, neither is that bad in the long run. The front office is running things Belichick style and I like it. 

 
They signed Hanley Ramirez $88mm to play LF, a trending-downward Pablo Sandoval for 5/$95mm, and have to carry a trending-downward Dustin Pedroia due to the long-term deal they gave him.  You can approve of any or all of those deals, but they are all pretty much the polar opposite of "running things Belichick style." 

 

[JohntheBaptist]

 
They signed Hanley Ramirez $88mm to play LF, a trending-downward Pablo Sandoval for 5/$95mm, and have to carry a trending-downward Dustin Pedroia due to the long-term deal they gave him.  You can approve of any or all of those deals, but they are all pretty much the polar opposite of "running things Belichick style." 

 
Just like this tired comparison is the polar opposite of useful or enlightening.

 

[Frank Fenway]

I meant with their ability to let star players go when it's necessary. 

 

[Frank Fenway]

 
They signed Hanley Ramirez $88mm to play LF, 

 
Full-stop. There is no analysis here. How does paying X player, X amount to play X position evidence that the front-office isn't running a certain way?

 

[Leather]

Bill Belichick has a salary cap to deal with. It's an entirely different roster management context.

 

[The Boomer]

 
I agree that its not how I would (or have) negotiated.  Its not an entirely unheard of strategy, though, to just walk, so I think its totally uncalled for to call it "offended." Lester's people knew damn well that it wasn't the Sox final offer, but their strategy was to not counter with something equally ridiculous on the high side to get things going.  That's a reasonable strategy.  But it *is* risky. And it paid off. I also dont think the Sox "botched it." They, too took a risk.  He could have taken 4/70, or negotiated it to 5/100 (or whatever) and sucked or gotten hurt. Or not taken it and sucked ot gotten hurt. Just about every analysis is hindsight, piled with wishcasting, and stirred by people, most of whom talk about "negotiations" in a way that suggests they don't completely get it.
 
That's how it goes. Most of the time when patients die it isn't the doctors fault.

 
Nicely said.  Like others before him, Lester basically had his career year in his walk season.  As a result, he hit the lottery with this contract. If any of the bad things happened, everyone with 20-20 hindsight would say how lucky the Sox were that Lester turned down their initial offer.  I can also tell you that when a criminal defendant goes to jail it's less the defenders fault despite what many people believe.  Defendants and attorneys meet mainly because investigation or arrest occurred.  Both patients and defendants need professional services because of their choices or sometimes simply because of destiny.  As with anyone, Lester reached this position because of an unpredictable confluence of luck and choice.  The same will be true going forward.  Lester's past performance is one of the best predictors of how things will turn out but the tendencies for all pitchers who reach certain levels of both age and mileage matter too.

 

[Luis Taint]

Lester is on twitter, thanking pretty much everyone in Boston Personally.

 

[Marbleheader]

Meanwhile, Red Sox twitter account announces free kids lunchbag day next August. PR crisis averted.

 

[BigMike]

Lester is on twitter, thanking pretty much everyone in Boston Personally.

 
 
Lester is a real class act.
 
In my book the day they trade you they lose any right to a hometown discount.   The fact that Lester even gave the Sox serious consideration despite the huge salary gap is testament to what a class act he is, and how much he really was torn

 

[Leather]

Or he was using his desire to go to the Sox as leverage the whole time to jack up other offers. But I guess Lester and his agents are above that because...

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

Or he was using his desire to go to the Sox as leverage the whole time to jack up other offers. But I guess Lester and his agents are above that because...

This.  Some folks seem to think the Levinson brothers are some mom-and-pop team and easy to deal with, if only because they aren't Scott Boras.
 
They run a top-drawer agency and they're every bit as shrewd in terms of advocating for their clients.  

 

[Reggie's Racquet]

 
Except that Belichick teams don't finish in last place. 

I agree. But baseball and football salary structures and roster building are far different.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Link to Lester replying to fan tweets
 
https://twitter.com/JLester31/with_replies

 

[geoduck no quahog]

On a serious note - anyone else surprised no one has jumped on the improper title of this thread?

 

[Harry Hooper]

On a serious note - anyone else surprised no one has jumped on the improper title of this thread?

 
I thought it was intentional -- rooting for laundry and all that.

 

[koufax37]

I thought that someone would go 6 or 7 at $155 for Lester and I thought it was going to be the Red Sox.  If they signed him, I'd have been OK with the back end of the contract being an overpay.  With the revenues going up and up, $25 million might not have even looked that bad down the road.  The Red Sox are flush with cash, so I don't want to hear that they couldn't have afforded it.  Now, instead of only cash they'll have to overspend in terms of prospects and cash if they want Hamels.  5/110 for Hamels is obviously lower, but if you have to give up Henry Owens to get him is it that much of a savings?  
 
They could have had him in the spring for roughly the cost of Cole Hamels' current contract plus his option.  Now, they are going to have to pay that plus at least 1-2 big prospects for a pitcher who they know substantially less than then one that they let walk out the door.

 
On the three bolded points:
 
1) I am calling a local TV bubble, and don't think we will see the inflationary revenue reality of the last few years be sustained.  I don't know what that means for any individual team's budget, but I think the general explosion will level off.  Enough of these deals are for hugely long terms, so we don't necessarily see a big bubble contraction, but I don't think planning on a continued revenue explosion is a wise move.
 
2) Being flush with cash doesn't mean a need to spend it unwisely.  I'm pretty confident we will not bypass the luxury tax threshold for more than an isolated single year, and that means that every dollar we spend in one place is a dollar less available to spend in another spot.  Giant free agent deals rarely end up being the wise move in the long term, and I still feel we dodged a bullet.
 
3) This spring he was a dramatically inferior pitcher.  Even with Lester's reestablishing himself, Cole was two wins better this year, and has five straight 200+ inning seasons with a WAR of at least Lester's 2014 4.6.  I would rather have Cole in 2015, I would rather have Cole over the next five years.  The gap has closed with Lester's strong year, but he is the better pitcher, and if I have to give up Lars Anderson AND Manny Delcarmen to get him I'm on board.  I would prefer not to give up Jeff Bagwell if we can avoid it.

 

[JimD]

The one thing no one seems to be mentioning is that Lester said he wanted to retire a Red Sox.  They came back and offered him FOUR years.  THAT is the slap in the face, not the 70 mil.  They should have offered him a Pedroia like deal for 7 or 8 years for 100-120 mil or whatever (just throwing #s out).  He wanted to RETIRE a Red Sox and they came back with a FOUR year offer and that's kind of a fuck-you to some degree.  I think that would have hurt me too after I just said that I want to be a lifetime Red Sox.  At least LOWBALL HIM with a long contract with plenty of bonuses.  

 
Then '8/$100' would have become the narrative if a deal wasn't struck - as in 'Can you believe the Red Sox only offered Jon Lester $12 million a year?  After what he did for them last October?'

 

[mBiferi]

Link to Lester replying to fan tweets
 
https://twitter.com/JLester31/with_replies

 
This is really cool, he responded to a lot of tweets.
 
What a class act.

 

[JimBoSox9]

Lester is on twitter, thanking pretty much everyone in Boston Personally.

 
 

 
This is really cool, he responded to a lot of tweets.
 
What a class act.

 
If anything you're underselling it:
 
http://wapc.mlb.com/cutfour/2014/12/10/103757406/jon-lester-thanks-almost-everyone-on-the-planet-after-signing-with-cubs
 

 

[ivanvamp]

I listened to Dale and Holley yesterday and Holley was beside himself with anguish.  The argument was basically this:  it would have been easier to handle if the Red Sox had been close to the Cubs' offer, but they were *20 MILLION DOLLARS SHORT*!!!  So somehow this made it worse.
 
Well, think about that.  If the Sox aren't in the same ballpark as the Cubs' offer, then they get ripped for not even trying, really.
 
But imagine the hand-wringing if the Sox were within, say, 3 million dollars.  $155 vs. $152.  And Lester chose the Cubs.  The narrative in the media wouldn't be, "Oh well, they gave it a great effort."  It would be, "OMG, you were willing to go to 152, but for the sake of THREE MILLION DOLLARS OVER SIX YEARS - $500,000 a year! - you were willing to let Lester go!!!!!????"  
 
The hand-wringing would have been much, much worse.
 
So the ONLY way the Sox get out of this unscathed is to actually sign Lester no matter what.  Period.  Which, given the events of the spring, may be fair.  But at least let's be honest here.  It wouldn't have been better if the Sox had come THISCLOSE to Chicago's offer, because they would have been skewered for not quite going all the way and losing him for peanuts.

 

[Leather]

Right.  It's easy to spin the narrative in whatever direction you want.  Why the direction is unfailingly "Red Sox management fucked up" is just the way it goes in Boston.
 
People bitching and moaning should consider themselves lucky that they cover/root for a team that can even step to the table for a guy like Lester or Sandoval or Hanley. If Lester pitched for the Twins, the "Thank you Jon Lester!" drum would have been beating at the beginning of the 2014 season.

 

[rodderick]

Right.  It's easy to spin the narrative in whatever direction you want.  Why the direction is unfailingly "Red Sox management fucked up" is just the way it goes in Boston.
 
People bitching and moaning should consider themselves lucky that they cover/root for a team that can even step to the table for a guy like Lester or Sandoval or Hanley. If Lester pitched for the Twins, the "Thank you Jon Lester!" drum would have been beating at the beginning of the 2014 season.

 
And they likely would've had a whole lot less to thank him for. 

 

[Leather]

 
And they likely would've had a whole lot less to thank him for. 

 
Right, and the only question would be: "How badly are we going to get fucked by the Red Sox/Yankees/Mets/Dodgers when we trade him."

 

[RedOctober3829]

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo 35s35 seconds ago Chicago, IL
Lester said the issue of the initial offer by Red Sox not an issue in the end.
 

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

Did I hear correctly that he got a 30 million dollar signing bonus?

So 6/155 plus another 30, plus a possible vesting for a 7th year?

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

Did I hear correctly that he got a 30 million dollar signing bonus?
So 6/155 plus another 30, plus a possible vesting for a 7th year?

The 30 is included in the 155

 

[NJ_Sox_Fan]

The 30 is included in the 155

Are you sure? That's not at all how mlb radio was making it sound ...

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 

Nick Cafardo ‏@nickcafardo 35s35 seconds ago Chicago, IL
Lester said the issue of the initial offer by Red Sox not an issue in the end.
 

 

 
Quite possibly true; OTOH, he really has nothing to gain by saying otherwise at this point. We may never hear from the horse's mouth how big a factor it really was.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Are you sure? That's not at all how mlb radio was making it sound ...

Yes.  If it was included, it would be called a 6/185 deal (Kershaw $).  This is the 3rd or 4th time we've had this discussion in this thread with all the applicable links in the prior pages (and probably some moved to the game thread, where this one will no doubt wind up). 

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Lester on MLB Network talking about the decision, Red Sox, etc.  
 
http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/7417714/v37056701

 

[JimD]

It says a lot for the job that Ben did this past week that seeing Lester putting on that Cubs shirt didn't really bother me the way I thought it would.

 

[Hank Scorpio]

ESPN seems to think Joe Maddon is a 16.17 WAR manager.
 
That, of course, assumes Rick Renteria was a replacement level manager. Which I guess makes sense since he was, well, replaced.
 

 

[Leather]

 
Quite possibly true; OTOH, he really has nothing to gain by saying otherwise at this point. We may never hear from the horse's mouth how big a factor it really was.

Keep fucking that chicken.

 

[Royal Reader]

ESPN seems to think Joe Maddon is a 16.17 WAR manager.
 
That, of course, assumes Rick Renteria was a replacement level manager. Which I guess makes sense since he was, well, replaced.
 

 
Seems totally plausible that Maddon is worth two Mike Trouts.

How do they possibly get those kinds of numbers?  When you're giving fractions of wins to that level of precision it implies you're using some kind of very detailed, complex analytic system.  And yet the actual totals scream 'pulled out of ass.'  It's baffling.

 

[nvalvo]

 
Seems totally plausible that Maddon is worth two Mike Trouts.

How do they possibly get those kinds of numbers?  When you're giving fractions of wins to that level of precision it implies you're using some kind of very detailed, complex analytic system.  And yet the actual totals scream 'pulled out of ass.'  It's baffling.

 
"Cubs, Being, Cubs"
 
I think it's a joke.  

 

[Plympton91]

 
Quite possibly true; OTOH, he really has nothing to gain by saying otherwise at this point. We may never hear from the horse's mouth how big a factor it really was.

"Not an issue in the end," can be translated as, "The Cubs offered $155 million." I'm good!

We know that the 4 year, $70 million offer was so badly misplaced that it wasn't even worth him countering. That meant they lost their chance to sign him last spring. Thus, saying that it was, "Not an issue," would not be factual. "Not an issue in the end" just means he had no hard feelings, and that's consistent with everything we know about him.

 

[Harry Hooper]

How ya gonna keep 'em down on the farm
After they've seen Paree'

 

 

Jon Lester, at the press conference introducing him with the Cubs upon the completion of his six-year, $155 million deal, said that the Red Sox‘ decision to trade him to the A’s at the July 31 deadline (along with Jonny Gomes in exchange for outfielder Yoenis Cespedes) did impact his view of the free agent process. Lester said that it became easier to imagine changing organizations once he experienced success with a new club. (After going 10-7 with a 2.52 ERA in 21 starts with the Red Sox, Lester went 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA in 11 starts for the A’s.)
 
“I think so,” Lester told reporters of whether being traded impacted his approach to free agency. “We were traded. That was the unknown of going to a whole different coast, a whole different organization, a whole different philosophy. I think going there prepared us for this time. I think if we finished out the year in Boston and you get down to this decision, I think it would be a lot harder. Not to say it wasn’t hard as it was, but that broke that barrier of, ‘I wonder if I can play for another team.’ I think we answered those questions.”
 

 
Speirer

 

[Al Zarilla]

Jon made a boo boo during the Cubs intro press conference, said he's "relishing the process of trying to win a World Series for a franchise that never has..."
 
I heard that on NESN early, recorded it on a subsequent showing as they play the same 20 minute show all morning. Couldn't find it on the internet, but he said it. 1908, Jon. 

 

[Snodgrass'Muff]

Jon made a boo boo during the Cubs intro press conference, said he's "relishing the process of trying to win a World Series for a franchise that never has..."
 
I heard that on NESN early, recorded it on a subsequent showing as they play the same 20 minute show all morning. Couldn't find it on the internet, but he said it. 1908, Jon. 

 
Eh, while you are technically correct are there any Cubs fans alive today who were old enough to actually enjoy the 1908 title? For all intents and purposes, a Cubs title now would be the first one anyone alive had ever enjoyed. His meaning seems pretty clear.

 

[smastroyin]

It's only because he was alive to see it.

 

[Al Zarilla]

 
Eh, while you are technically correct are there any Cubs fans alive today who were old enough to actually enjoy the 1908 title? For all intents and purposes, a Cubs title now would be the first one anyone alive had ever enjoyed. His meaning seems pretty clear.

Well, there's nobody alive from Revolutionary War times, so maybe the British should try to claim this country again.
 
I'm sure some old Cubs historian will get back in a nice way to Jon. 
 

It's only because he was alive to see it.

Ha ha, maybe my grandfather(s).

 

[Reverend]

 
Eh, while you are technically correct are there any Cubs fans alive today who were old enough to actually enjoy the 1908 title? For all intents and purposes, a Cubs title now would be the first one anyone alive had ever enjoyed. His meaning seems pretty clear.

 
Well, sure, this is technically correct, but is it what baseball is really about?

 

[lxt]

Actually seems to be a nicely structured contract:
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/cubs-to-sign-jon-lester.html

 

[grimshaw]

FYI - Jon Lester (and Wade Miley) will be on the 'EEI Hot Stove show tonight between 7 and 8.

 

[nattysez]

This is a little silly -- seems unlikely the Sox would have ever offered this much during ST -- but anyway:
 

On WEEI just now, Jon Lester said it would have been “very difficult” to turn down 5/$120 in spring training. So there you go.