El Tiante said:
I think DH and PED are big strikes against his HoF election. I would predict that he doesn't get in. Suspected PED users with much better stats are not getting in.
Except that he's continued to hit well into the era of much more advanced and frequent testing. If every guy who hit for power and was suspected to have maybe been a steroid guy is going to be blocked from the HoF there won't be very many hitters making it into the HoF for the next 10-15 years.
smastroyin said:
The things that hurt
- Outside of Red Sox fans, not generally thought of as a best hitter in the league type
As someone who lives in St. Louis, I can safely say that David Ortiz is one of the most respected and feared hitters in this very engaged baseball town. I have an old Ortiz name and number baseball t and I can't walk out the front door without at least one person stopping me on the street to tell me 1. how we suck for beating them in the WS twice in a decade and 2. how great Ortiz is as a hitter. Sure, they always slide a backhand "DH" comment in there and that will hurt him, but Ortiz has hit well against the best teams on the biggest stages.
This country is awash in baseball fans who have had their hopes and dreams of World Series glory dashed by an epic Ortiz blast. You don't make it in the top 5 of MVP voting 5 times and the All-Star game 9 times from the DH position without being seen as something truly special with the stick.
I think he'll make it in, as the first DH to do so, and the real question I have is how long it takes and if Edgar Martinez has any time left to ride Ortiz' coat tails in for his own acceptance. Here's why:
1. At the time Ortiz will become elidgible we're likely going to see a softening of stance regarding PED use as HoF voters will have few credible candidates otherwise and ultimately I feel will soften on Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, etc.. Every team's beat writers will have a guy they feel should be in who is having shade cast upon him related to the PED era, and as such they'll collectively stop throwing stones.
2. Ortiz, as one of the few great PED era players who continue producing after significantly enhance testing came into place, will be promoted to shining example of how PEDs weren't that big a deal/over dramatized/frequently charged to guys with only circumstantial evidence or less. I expect to hear the argument "if PEDs were such a big deal why was David Ortiz hitting better at 39 with heavy testing than he did at 32 in the heart of the steroid era?" He'll go from pariah to paragon as the narrative shifts.
3. Once the PED issue is resolved it then turns into if they want to enshrine a DH. As the DH is now quite prevalent and the concept of negative defensive value is gaining mind share all the time I'd expect this to be partially weakened as a stigma pre-emptively. Then the argument would become "if he played 1B poorly would we even be asking this question?" which gets answered by the following HoF criteria check:
1. are his all time numbers that of a career HoF? With 500 HRs and especially if he makes 2500 hits the answer would be a strong "yes".
2. was he ever considered a dominant player in the league? 9 ASGs, 5 top 5 MVP voting periods. League-wide feared hitter from 2003 to 2007, dropped a bit, then surged again in 2011 to 2013 (or beyond, if this second half isn't a mirage). So two extended periods of dominant production with the gap filled with very good production.
3. Did his career exhibit HoF longevity? Answered above, moreso than any other offensive candidate they'll get to vote on other than Barry Bonds basically.
4. Does he have the post-season credentials? Like basically no one else to play the game, sure.
5. Memorable moments? Again, see above.
So they'll go down through the list and say "well, if Ortiz can't make it in the hall what 95-2007 power hitter and what DH ever will?" deciding he's the special circumstance who breaks the seal.
In fact, I think a strong 2016 followed by anything even decent beyond will put him in contention for first ballot status.
Personally I'm hoping that Hanley and Pedey get healthy and recharged this winter and we go into 2016 with upswing years from his bookend #2 and #4 hitters, leading to a big year for Papi that completely removes the question mark and sees him basically on the future HoF tour from that point on. A .300/.400/.600 type season and another big post-season.