Let's Propose A Trade!

Rasputin · Apr 26, 2015

jimbobim said:
I'm avoiding studying and this seems like the thread to put this type of rank trade proposal.

I know these trades don't get made this early on. I readily admit this is a reactive post to the volatile rotation and Koji looking vulnerable. Still, I'm rooting for the Red legs to lose and lose often because I think their GM is more sane then Ruben.

I think the Reds make an almost ideal trade partner what with Cueto and Chapman potentially available. My only qualm here is that Eduardo Rodriguez is rapidly approaching untouchable status.

HangingW/ScottCooper · Apr 26, 2015

Rasputin said:
I think the Reds make an almost ideal trade partner what with Cueto and Chapman potentially available. My only qualm here is that Eduardo Rodriguez is rapidly approaching untouchable status.

For me, there isn't a pitcher in the organization more untouchable than Eduardo Rodriguez.

FinanceAdvice · Apr 26, 2015

HangingW/ScottCooper said:
For me, there isn't a pitcher in the organization more untouchable than Eduardo Rodriguez.

Do you really want a trade involving Rodriquez with these stats?

18.2 IP, 16:1 k's/BB, 1.93 ERA, .70 WHIP, 22 yo. I think Orioles saw something in him too!

With all of the SR imploding now, I'd keep Rodriquez and call him up sooner rather than later.

geoduck no quahog · Apr 26, 2015

Maybe I should start a Calm Down thread.

Red Sox are 26th in BABIP (out of 30...Pirates are 25th and Angels are 28th)

Red Sox starters are 11th in xFIP (that's the one we're supposed to use?) (Pirates are 4th, Angels are 25th)

Red Sox relievers are 13th (Pirates are 27th and Angels are 11th)

It's still too early to panic. I choose the Pirates and Angels for comparison because they're both highly touted teams.

Andrew McCutchen is batting .182
Josh Harrison .221
Starling Marte .228

Pujols is hitting .185
Aybar .190
Joyce .132
Iannetta .106

Wilson sucks
Weaver sucks
Shoemaker sucks

Pirates starters (who remind me of the Red Sox staff potential) have started out well, but their relievers suck.

The last thing any team wants to do is make a panic trade in April because slumps happened to occur concurrently and early season stats make everyone look better/worse than they really are.

It's just not right to assume guys like Betts and Bogaerts (and even Craig) aren't going to turn things around, and that the heavyweights won't start making up for the lousy BABIP. Same for the starters.

I will grant that the bullpen does look like suck, but who the fuck can predict relievers?

sketz · Apr 26, 2015

Doesn't seem like we're just a stud starter & relief ace away from fixing the staff right now, does it? Until the group as a whole shows more consistency and we get a better read on who needs to be replaced vs who's slumping, I'd save my chips. Instead, I'd call up 1-2 lower-ceiling rubber arms that can go 4 innings each (Wright?) to save the pen when these kind of meltdowns happen.

Papelbon's Poutine · Apr 26, 2015

geoduck no quahog said:
Maybe I should start a Calm Down thread.

Red Sox are 26th in BABIP (out of 30...Pirates are 25th and Angels are 28th)

Red Sox starters are 11th in xFIP (that's the one we're supposed to use?) (Pirates are 4th, Angels are 25th)

Red Sox relievers are 13th (Pirates are 27th and Angels are 11th)

It's still too early to panic. I choose the Pirates and Angels for comparison because they're both highly touted teams.

Andrew McCutchen is batting .182
Josh Harrison .221
Starling Marte .228

Pujols is hitting .185
Aybar .190
Joyce .132
Iannetta .106

Wilson sucks
Weaver sucks
Shoemaker sucks

Pirates starters (who remind me of the Red Sox staff potential) have started out well, but their relievers suck.

The last thing any team wants to do is make a panic trade in April because slumps happened to occur concurrently and early season stats make everyone look better/worse than they really are.

It's just not right to assume guys like Betts and Bogaerts (and even Craig) aren't going to turn things around, and that the heavyweights won't start making up for the lousy BABIP. Same for the starters.

I will grant that the bullpen does look like suck, but who the fuck can predict relievers?

Where are the Pirates and Angels "highly touted teams"? Asking for a friend.

geoduck no quahog · Apr 26, 2015

Papelbon's Poutine said:
Where are the Pirates and Angels "highly touted teams"? Asking for a friend.

I could have picked other teams, but Steamer had:

Red Sox @ 87 wins (and the division)
Angels @ 84 wins (1 behind the Mariners)
Pirates @ 86 wins (5 behind the Cardinals)

I can look at the other predictors, but really - I'm just going by stuff I heard on radio and TV pre-season.

Plus, I think the Pirates really match up (on paper) with the Red Sox. Am I off base?

Papelbon's Poutine · Apr 26, 2015

geoduck no quahog said:
I could have picked other teams, but Steamer had:

Red Sox @ 87 wins (and the division)
Angels @ 84 wins (1 behind the Mariners)
Pirates @ 86 wins (5 behind the Cardinals)

I can look at the other predictors, but really - I'm just going by stuff I heard on radio and TV pre-season.

Plus, I think the Pirates really match up (on paper) with the Red Sox. Am I off base?

I guess I just don't see the point of comparing a bunch of ~.500 teams in an effort to get people to calm down about a small sample size of 18 or so games. Yay, they're all mediocre so far! Is a Steamer projection or a preseason ranking supposed to make anyone feel better.

I agree with your premise, that people should chill out before we start selling the farm, I just think it would be more valuable analysis to compare them to teams that have performed well so far. How do they compare to the Mets or the Tigers or the Cardinals? Or compare them to the teams that suck so far. How do they stack up against the Brewers or Rangers?

I guess if I'm trying to prove that a small sample size isn't predictive, I use the extremes to do it, not the teams that are comparable by wins and losses.

HangingW/ScottCooper · Apr 26, 2015

I'll pose the question, who is the most valuable pitcher in the Sox system right now? Joe Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez or Henry Owens?

MuzzyField · Apr 26, 2015

HangingW/ScottCooper said:
I'll pose the question, who is the most valuable pitcher in the Sox system right now? Joe Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez or Henry Owens?

This seems like a Butch and Sundance or Thelma and Louis dilemma... Is there a winning option where everyone isn't dead?

Yelling At Clouds · Apr 26, 2015

HangingW/ScottCooper said:
I'll pose the question, who is the most valuable pitcher in the Sox system right now? Joe Kelly, Eduardo Rodriguez or Henry Owens?

The Henry Owens who's walked more AAA batters than he's struck out so far this season?

KillerBs · Apr 26, 2015

While of course it is too early to say anything definitive, it may be that the first move (or moves) to consider is not a trade (or two) but simply clearing out the dead wood and replacing it with guys at Pawtucket. A few more weeks down the road and we may be looking at the increasingly obvious imperative of dumping Craig, Victorino and/or Masterson and replacing them with Castillo, Brentz/Bradley and ERod/Johnson. In this case, the issue will be not "what do we get in return?" but "when is enough enough?"

You can expand that concept and readily imagine the need to move Miley to the pen and replace with the other of Erod or Johnson and/or also overhaul the pen in large part by casting off the likes of Breslow/Ross/Varvaro for the Barnes/Wright/Laynes of the world.

All too early yes, but the possibility of the need for a May/June internal rebuild is looming.

As for trades where you expect an actual return, I would think that Bogaerts or Marrero would be a candidate to be moved.

Rasputin · Apr 26, 2015

I don't think anyone is panicking.

If it were just a matter of one starter sucking, it would be one thing, we could ditch the bad starter and bring up someone else but we can't be more than marginally confident any of the others are going to put up a decent start on any given day.

E5 Yaz · Apr 26, 2015

Rasputin said:
I don't think anyone is panicking.

You must have missed this thread's opening post

fineyoungarm · Apr 26, 2015

E5 Yaz said:
You must have missed this thread's opening post

Lyle for Cater

Rasputin · Apr 26, 2015

E5 Yaz said:
You must have missed this thread's opening post

The one that's talking about making a trade months from now? That's not what panic looks like.

Traut · Apr 26, 2015

fineyoungarm said:
Lyle for Cater

Abs must be busy prepping his "Buchholz the 4th Start" column. How else can one explain this thread lasting 8 hours without being locked? Some guy has trouble studying and we're stuck reading his fantasy trade? Get back to hitting the books, young sparky.

Hank Scorpio · Apr 26, 2015

How about this?

What would be a better trade for the Red Sox?

1: Having Allen Craig, and trading him for Wade Miley.

2: Having Wade Miley, and trading him for Allen Craig.

Assume both players are under their current contract.

E5 Yaz · Apr 26, 2015

jimbobim said:
Thank you for reading the actual post. At least twice ,I said this is in the far future when deals actually happen.

I'm sorry, but a five prospects for two arms -- one a FA2B and the other with one additional season -- strikes me as a panic proposal ... regardless of when the trade would actually come down.

Rasputin · Apr 26, 2015

E5 Yaz said:
I'm sorry, but a five prospects for two arms -- one a FA2B and the other with one additional season -- strikes me as a panic proposal ... regardless of when the trade would actually come down.

Remember last year when the Sox traded Lester for Cespedes and people were talking about how surprising it was that Lester was traded for a major leaguer?

I'm not saying it's a good deal. I sure as hell want to see Eduardo Rodriguez up here and I want to see what Barnes and Light can do before we ship Devers and Margot anywhere.

But the Sox have a bunch of prospects and we ain't going to be playing them all.

E5 Yaz · Apr 26, 2015

Rasputin said:
Remember last year when the Sox traded Lester for Cespedes and people were talking about how surprising it was that Lester was traded for a major leaguer?

I'm not saying it's a good deal. I sure as hell want to see Eduardo Rodriguez up here and I want to see what Barnes and Light can do before we ship Devers and Margot anywhere.

But the Sox have a bunch of prospects and we ain't going to be playing them all.

Agreed, and the time may come where we'll use them in a deal.

But basing a midseason trade proposal on the slow April of the starters is jumping the gun. We can disagree on the meaning of panic, I suppose; but this particular proposal, to me, comes off as a knee-jerk reaction.

LondonSox · Apr 27, 2015

Danny_Darwin said:
The Henry Owens who's walked more AAA batters than he's struck out so far this season?

This.... season. 3 games. Yes totally.

CoRP · Apr 27, 2015

Where's the kid that wants to pry Hamels away from the Phillies? This thread seems to be made for him.

tims4wins · Apr 27, 2015

CoRP said:
Where's the kid that wants to pry Hamels away from the Phillies? This thread seems to be made for him.

jasvlm · Apr 27, 2015

jimbobim said:
I'm avoiding studying and this seems like the thread to put this type of rank trade proposal.

Reds
Cueto
Chapman under control for another season

Red Sox
Ed Rod
Margot
Denvers
Chavis
Chechinni

Now would that classify as a metric ton for a pitcher not under control like Cueto and who can't be slapped with a QO ? Maybe. Is it even more nuts if they can't lock up Chapman for what will likely cost more than the Miller deal they were uninterested in this offseason ? Maybe.

Why the Reds do it ?
First of all this isn't even likely to get discussed till after the All Star game unless the Reds pull a Brewers like plummet. The Reds do it because a controllable high upside arm like Ed Rod to go with Stephenson is the makings of a very solid young rotation. In Margot Denvers and Chavis they get youthful bats who could supplement their lineup when the young arms have gotten a year or two under their belts and against teams like the Pirates and Cubs they're going to need youthful high upside contributions. Cechinni they can put in left over the corpse of Marlon Byrd.

Why the Red Sox do it ?
Cueto has been a stud this year and had a case for the Cy Young the last couple if it weren't for Kershaw. He fills that elusive top of the rotation type arm that the team lacks right now. Denvers ,Margot, and Cechinni are all blocked to certain extents as well as Chavis. Ed Rod hurts, but when your getting two top 5 talents in the rotations and bullpen respectively it's going to hurt. Chapman, Tazawa, Koji in the pen with a rotation of Cueto Porcello Buch Kelly and Miley with this lineup is a juggernaut down the stretch.

I know these trades don't get made this early on. I readily admit this is a reactive post to the volatile rotation and Koji looking vulnerable. Still, I'm rooting for the Red legs to lose and lose often because I think their GM is more sane then Ruben.

I've advocated for exactly this package-Cueto and Chapman from the Reds-But not nearly at the cost listed. Cueto is a FA to be (no draft pick coming back even if he leaves, because he'd be dealt midseason) and Chapman has 1 year left on his deal. I think the Red Sox would have to deal at least Owens, and probably a lower level guy (not Margot or Devers), and probably include Cecchini or Marrero to get this done. So, something like Owens, Cecchini, Barnes and Guerra for Cueto and Chapman? That's probably more realistic in terms of what it might take to make the move, and even these assets, with all their years of control, might be an overpay because the Red Sox get limited control back. Still, in the likely competitive market to get players of this caliber, that's what it would take.

Rasputin · Apr 27, 2015

jasvlm said:
I've advocated for exactly this package-Cueto and Chapman from the Reds-But not nearly at the cost listed. Cueto is a FA to be (no draft pick coming back even if he leaves, because he'd be dealt midseason) and Chapman has 1 year left on his deal. I think the Red Sox would have to deal at least Owens, and probably a lower level guy (not Margot or Devers), and probably include Cecchini or Marrero to get this done. So, something like Owens, Cecchini, Barnes and Guerra for Cueto and Chapman? That's probably more realistic in terms of what it might take to make the move, and even these assets, with all their years of control, might be an overpay because the Red Sox get limited control back. Still, in the likely competitive market to get players of this caliber, that's what it would take.

I think it's going to take more than that. It's going to cost something that hurts, and that's why we should do everything we can to make sure such a trade isn't necessary. Or, we could just suck it up and risk missing out on the playoffs this year if the price gets too high.

Al Zarilla · Apr 27, 2015

tims4wins said:

We need the past tense of that, like a head rolling away. Actually, it's fine.

BroodsSexton · Apr 27, 2015

Long live the internet.

jasvlm · Apr 27, 2015

Rasputin said:
I think it's going to take more than that. It's going to cost something that hurts, and that's why we should do everything we can to make sure such a trade isn't necessary. Or, we could just suck it up and risk missing out on the playoffs this year if the price gets too high.

I think if the Reds decide they are out of it by June, that an early strike to make this kind of move might avoid the sticker price escalation that occurs around the deadline. It also gives the Red Sox more time to utilize Cueto this year, and more time with Chapman as well. If push came to shove, I think I could be pressed to include Margot or Devers with Owens, taking Barnes/Cecchini out, but I'd want the Reds to kick in some value or cash to offset the salaries the Red Sox are taking on. I think ERod is the one guy (with Swihart/Betts, of course) that I don't want to move. Perhaps adding Johnson gives the Reds more of the near term help they may prefer. Would Owens, Johnson, Cecchini and Guerra make it work?

Rasputin · Apr 27, 2015

jasvlm said:
I think if the Reds decide they are out of it by June, that an early strike to make this kind of move might avoid the sticker price escalation that occurs around the deadline. It also gives the Red Sox more time to utilize Cueto this year, and more time with Chapman as well. If push came to shove, I think I could be pressed to include Margot or Devers with Owens, taking Barnes/Cecchini out, but I'd want the Reds to kick in some value or cash to offset the salaries the Red Sox are taking on. I think ERod is the one guy (with Swihart/Betts, of course) that I don't want to move. Perhaps adding Johnson gives the Reds more of the near term help they may prefer. Would Owens, Johnson, Cecchini and Guerra make it work?

I don't think so. I think they're going to need a really high ceiling guy. I also think that no matter how bad they get, the Reds are going to have precisely zero interest in trading before the deadline. They have the All-Star game and the thought of Cueto starting the game in someone else's uniform probably makes Reds fans sick. They're going to want to maximize the return so the only way to get them earlier would be to offer something that they think would beat the best they would get at the deadline.

nighthob · Apr 27, 2015

Yeah sorry, not cashing out half the team's top 10 list for a rental and a year of Chapman. If you're paying out two top 5 guys (from a system this good) you need someone with multiple years of control, not six months.

ivanvamp · Apr 27, 2015

From (http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantasybaseball/update/25164825/report-phillies-hoping-to-deal-jonathan-papelbon-to-red-sox):

"The Phillies are trying to convince the Red Sox to trade for closer Jonathan Papelbon, according to the Boston Globe.
Such a deal could make sense for Boston considering that current closer Koji Uehara has lost a bit of velocity and owns an uncharacterstic 4.15 ERA with two runs and five hits allowed in his last 2 1/3 innings.
Papelbon, on the other hand, has been lights-out. He is 4-fof-4 in save opportunities and had not yielded a run until Sunday. He is also quite familiar with pitching at Fenway, having served as the Red Sox closer from 2006 through 2011. Papelbon is one of only a handful of major league closers that have maintained that role for more than a few years."

I think the Sox should pursue Papelbon, because I think he'd actually be pretty useful. But I don't want to pay full freight for him at all.

jscola85 · Apr 27, 2015

Would someone like Brentz + a low-level pitcher be interesting for Philly? Their OF is a mess and Brentz could help immediately, but he's almost completely blocked in Boston. This would assume that Amaro isn't crazy, of course, and asking for something like Manuel Margot in return for Pap.

czar · Apr 27, 2015

jscola85 said:
Would someone like Brentz + a low-level pitcher be interesting for Philly? Their OF is a mess and Brentz could help immediately, but he's almost completely blocked in Boston. This would assume that Amaro isn't crazy, of course, and asking for something like Manuel Margot in return for Pap.

I think any trade with Philly needs to start with figuring out how much of Papelbon's contract they'd pick up once his option vests.

He's picked up some of the FBv decline with increasing use of the slider, but he'd cost ~$24m over the next 2 years if the Red Sox traded for him today. I could find many better uses for that $24m.

OnWisc · Apr 27, 2015

I think any trade with Philly needs to start with figuring out how much of Papelbon's contract they'd pick up once his option vests.

He's picked up some of the FBv decline with increasing use of the slider, but he'd cost ~$24m over the next 2 years if the Red Sox traded for him today. I could find many better uses for that $24m.

I'll get this in before the thread locks, but if Amaro is going to eat any money, wouldn't he be better off doing so to goose the return in a deal for Hamels? I don't see anyone moving on an unsubsidized Papelbon, and even a theoretically fully subsidized Paps probably won't fetch a huge return. A subsidized Hamels though might move his return into the echelon of prospects that Amaro seems to be targeting. By the time Philly's back in the market for any major FA signings, that money should be pretty much off the books anyway. Philly doesn't even appear to have any young guys who warrant a contract buying out their arb/first couple FA years. They need prospects, not financial flexibility.

Reverend · Apr 27, 2015

OnWisc said:
I'll get this in before the thread locks,

Nice call.

We know for a fact that the FOs split the season into rough thirds, where the first third is to see what they have, the second part to try and fix that via trades or promotions, and the final third to see if it worked and to pick up spare parts from the waiver wire / deadline deals.

Which is to say, the teams don't speculate based on the small samples of a season so young--that way is for fans, and there lies madness.

Well, perhaps not madness. But it does lend itself to poor analysis, which we try to avoid lest it infect some of the members.

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