Liverpool 2014-15: Now Is Time On Merseyside When We Dance
- Thread starter DLew On Roids
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Oh definitely. Don't get me wrong, I'd LOVE to have him on LFC (from the little I know about his Barca career). I'm just pissed at Suarez that he put the club in this position.Bosoxen said:
Correct on all points. But with Suarez' suspension, acquiring Alexis Sanchez is no longer a depth move, but a necessity to replace Suarez' playmaking and goals.
JayMags, you make it sound like Suarez is gone for the season. I mean, if this forces them to sell, then okay, I agree. I just don't see them selling at this time when his value has decreased greatly in the eyes of many. If Liverpool add Sanchez to a strike team that includes Suarez, it's only a lateral move until late October, early November. Then it's pandemonium. I haven't seen an actual count of how many Liverpool games he'll miss, but it'll probably be 8-10 League, 2-3 Champions League. That's not terrible.
As is usually the case, it's best not to get too worked up over transfers until there is ink on paper. I know nothing about the Daily Star publication (whether it's reputable or not) but I just saw this story, indicating that Arsenal and ManU are trying to scuttle the Alexis to Liverpool deal:
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/386030/Arsenal-and-Man-United-plot-to-gatecrash-Liverpool-s-move-for-Alexis-Sanchez
Also of note in that link, they are claiming that Barcelona are still interested in Suarez. So maybe it should be taken with a grain of salt?
http://www.dailystar.co.uk/sport/football/386030/Arsenal-and-Man-United-plot-to-gatecrash-Liverpool-s-move-for-Alexis-Sanchez
Also of note in that link, they are claiming that Barcelona are still interested in Suarez. So maybe it should be taken with a grain of salt?
http://www.thisisanfield.com/2014/06/adam-lallana-arrives-liverpool-medical-barcelona-still-want-luis-suarez/
It looks like the Lallana deal is done for 25M, and according to this piece, Barcelona remains interested in Suarez, but Liverpool are giving no discounts based on the biting/ban.
It looks like the Lallana deal is done for 25M, and according to this piece, Barcelona remains interested in Suarez, but Liverpool are giving no discounts based on the biting/ban.
sachmoney said:
I looked at the fixture list the day the penalty was announced... Suarez will be sidelined for at least 9 BPL games. Given that he cannot be on the premises, I suppose there may be an additional question as to immediate fitness on 11/1/14 as well. Perhaps this would give him two months to elevate his form for the January window...
Yesterday whilst doing the post match (France/Nigeria) punditry, Gary Lineker read out the Suarez apology. He then said that the apology might be due to some folks from Barca advising Suarez to repent. I dunno if Lineker, who used to play for Barca, has any connections at the club, but i thought it was odd that he mentioned Barca in the same breath.
fletcherpost said:
It doesn't take much in this instance. Just about everyone is being proven right that Barca was behind the apology thanks to the sporting director there praising Suarez for apologizing.
I'm at the point with that piece of drama that I just want 40m and Sanchez, call it a day, and let Camp Nou deal with it from now on. If he's well-behaved there, fine, but considering that the next time he bites, it'll likely be a year of no football, I'll let them take that chance.
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/liverpool-fc-bracing-themselves-opening-7349612
"Liverpool, who haven’t been informed by either Suarez or his advisers that he’s seeking a transfer, have no intention of selling him on the cheap.
There is a release clause in the lucrative contract Suarez penned last December, which is understood to be around £70million to £80million, and the Reds are adamant unless that is met he will be going nowhere.
The ECHO understands Liverpool played no role in Suarez’s apology and were given no prior warning that it was being issued.
Despite his latest shameful disciplinary episode, which has given the Reds a major headache ahead of the new campaign, Suarez made no mention of his club.
There was an apology to Chiellini and the “entire football family” but no show of regret for the implications of his behaviour on Liverpool, despite the fact they have repeatedly stood by him in the wake of his string of indiscretions."
Yea, i agree, take the money/assets. It is a bit sad that in the midst of his eloquent apology no mention to his club was made. I wonder if Rogers has spoken to him recently.
"Liverpool, who haven’t been informed by either Suarez or his advisers that he’s seeking a transfer, have no intention of selling him on the cheap.
There is a release clause in the lucrative contract Suarez penned last December, which is understood to be around £70million to £80million, and the Reds are adamant unless that is met he will be going nowhere.
The ECHO understands Liverpool played no role in Suarez’s apology and were given no prior warning that it was being issued.
Despite his latest shameful disciplinary episode, which has given the Reds a major headache ahead of the new campaign, Suarez made no mention of his club.
There was an apology to Chiellini and the “entire football family” but no show of regret for the implications of his behaviour on Liverpool, despite the fact they have repeatedly stood by him in the wake of his string of indiscretions."
Yea, i agree, take the money/assets. It is a bit sad that in the midst of his eloquent apology no mention to his club was made. I wonder if Rogers has spoken to him recently.
It's been reported many times that the release clause is only available if Liverpool fail to make the Champions League. Given what Bale went for and the new money flowing in from TV, if they don't get £100 million, they're selling on the cheap.
I think the club finances are an interesting wrinkle in relation to Suarez. Liverpool didn't have to comply with FFP last year because they weren't a CL club, but I've read speculation that there's a decent chance the club would have failed. It's hard to say since the FFP rules seem to have been moving goalposts, but there's at least a scenario here where they need the Suarez money to finance the depth they need to compete on all fronts.
DLew On Roids said:
I disagree. For one, he'd be 4 years older than when Bale was sold. 2. He's not on the level Ronaldo was when United sold him, and 3. His off field issues do matter for his value. If I was Liverpool I'd take 60 and run.
Zomp said:
1. Irrelevant. The transfer fee is amortized over the life of the contract signed when the player joins. Player contracts are typically four or five years, at which point he can leave for free. Unless you expect significant aging over the next five years, there shouldn't be a discount for age.
2. He's the third-best player in the world right now, so it's close. Bale wasn't on Ronaldo's level and drew a comparable fee to Ronaldo. A player of Ronaldo's profile when Man U sold him would go for at least 120M today...
3. ...which brings me to the final point, which is that at 100M his issues are already priced in.
DLew On Roids said:
I don't agree with you at all. I'd be very surprised to see 100M for Suarez, the age thing does matter, not just because of the player leaving but also because of future sell on value. In 4 years Suarez is 31 years old and he's not commanding a resale value anywhere near where Bale might or Ronaldo might have. Also, the age also speaks to the projectability of the player. Ronaldo was already quite a player, but it was conceivable that there was room for growth. Bale is still just 24, there's room for growth there. You can re-sign these players again and get more years out of them or sell them on and still get good value.
Then you have to discount for all the shenanigans, I agree almost completely with Zomp that 60M is a very generous offer that both sides can probably get enough value out of.
Wow Teddy and I agree on something.
If the rumored offer is 40M plus Sanchez I think thats a very good deal.
If the rumored offer is 40M plus Sanchez I think thats a very good deal.
I bet you'd love to see Liverpool take that deal because it gets Man U closer to them.
I can guarantee you that when Barcelona or Real Madrid sign a player for this kind of money, the thinking how much they can sell him for in the last year of his deal, and how much his being 27 or 31 will affect it, is a trivial amount in comparison to showing that they're the only clubs in the world that can bring these players in. Besides, if a player is still that good after four years, there's only one other club in the world they can sell to where the money would help recover their original costs...and Barca and Real don't sell to each other unless it's via a release clause.
There is zero chance Liverpool can replace Suarez's contribution for 60M and, unless they have sponsors making nervous phone calls, they'd be insane to accept it. If JWH is tempted, I hope he takes a long look at what happened to Spurs last season after they pumped the Bale money back into Soldado, Lamela, et al.
Finally, if you guys think I'm insane for suggesting these prices, keep in mind what always happens when Real or Barca go after a Top 10 player. When they transfer fee is announced, everyone says, "They paid how much?" There's a Real/Barca premium because they decide they simply have to have him and money doesn't matter that much. If that doesn't happen here, again, it'll only be because Liverpool found that they couldn't afford to keep him due to other effects on revenue.
I can guarantee you that when Barcelona or Real Madrid sign a player for this kind of money, the thinking how much they can sell him for in the last year of his deal, and how much his being 27 or 31 will affect it, is a trivial amount in comparison to showing that they're the only clubs in the world that can bring these players in. Besides, if a player is still that good after four years, there's only one other club in the world they can sell to where the money would help recover their original costs...and Barca and Real don't sell to each other unless it's via a release clause.
There is zero chance Liverpool can replace Suarez's contribution for 60M and, unless they have sponsors making nervous phone calls, they'd be insane to accept it. If JWH is tempted, I hope he takes a long look at what happened to Spurs last season after they pumped the Bale money back into Soldado, Lamela, et al.
Finally, if you guys think I'm insane for suggesting these prices, keep in mind what always happens when Real or Barca go after a Top 10 player. When they transfer fee is announced, everyone says, "They paid how much?" There's a Real/Barca premium because they decide they simply have to have him and money doesn't matter that much. If that doesn't happen here, again, it'll only be because Liverpool found that they couldn't afford to keep him due to other effects on revenue.
Setting aside the question of the value of X, if the final selling price is X + Sanchez, aren't they already ahead of Spurs? I mean isn't he better than any of Soldado, Lamela, et al?DLew On Roids said:
Not to mention, Sanchez would be available for all the EPL matches and all 6 Champions League Group matches, not just at most 76% and 50% of them respectively (and probably less than that since Suarez won't even be allowed to train with his team until late October).JayMags71 said:
DLew On Roids said:
But you aren't even factoring in the fact that he's fucking insane and thought of by 99% of the public as a piece of shit. The biting hurt his value, and he wasn't a 100M player to begin with...not given his age, which is important because you don't spend 100M on a player if you think you'll get 4 or 5 years out of him. You spend it if you think you can get 8-10 years out of him.
I'd disagree about him being 3rd as well. I think Zlatan, Ribery, and Bale can all make claims that they're better.
I think £100M is pretty optimistic. Bale "only" cost £78M, despite some initial reports that had the figure higher. There should be a little year-on-year inflation but that's very much outweighed by Suarez's age and the biting issue. Losing the player for several months at the beginning of his first year and the lingering uncertainty of whether he might get himself suspended for an entire season in the future are significant factors.
My guess is that the final figure is somewhere between £65-75M if he gets sold. But I'm not yet completely convinced its going to happen.
Edit: On the age issue, its not just a question of how much Suarez is worth when his contract is running down, its also a question of whether he's going to get worse over time. There's a good argument that forwards, especially those that really depend on their quickness, have the youngest peak years of any position, with a prime around 24-29. Suarez is 27 and turns 28 this January so he's at the tail end of that period.
My guess is that the final figure is somewhere between £65-75M if he gets sold. But I'm not yet completely convinced its going to happen.
Edit: On the age issue, its not just a question of how much Suarez is worth when his contract is running down, its also a question of whether he's going to get worse over time. There's a good argument that forwards, especially those that really depend on their quickness, have the youngest peak years of any position, with a prime around 24-29. Suarez is 27 and turns 28 this January so he's at the tail end of that period.
Zomp said:
Spending 100M on a player on the assumption that you can get 8-10 years out of him when he only signs a 5-year contract and is a free agent after 5 years would be insane. Not figuratively insane, literally insane. The kind of insane that if a sporting director or GM said it, he should be fired on the spot because he doesn't understand math.
You sign a player on a 5-year deal with a 100M transfer fee and pay him 15M per year. Ignoring NPV, your costs are 175M over 5 years; you have to assume you get 35M of value per year because he can walk away after 5 years and you get nothing. And you don't get a discount on retaining him at any point because if he's 27 years old in five years, a free agent, and still has his skills, he's going to be asking for the full 35M per year deposited in his own checking account.
Clubs used to screw up this basic math all the time--the knock-on effect was that players who moved for free would have wages out of whack with everyone else, and clubs thought they should sell them on for lower wages, and it didn't work (see McManaman, Steve, the Real Madrid years). But they get it now, which is why you see things like RvP going for a lot of money at a relatively advanced age, and why you see disappointing high-wage players going out on loan as clubs realize they can't convince the player or another club to make the same deal they did a few years ago. And it's why a player who's 27 and signing a 5-year deal is going to go for just about as much as a 22-YO with the same skills. The time horizon is the life of the contract.
But you're ignoring that players extend or "restructure" their contracts all the time. If a player signs a 5 year contract after a big transfer, like a Ronaldo or Bale. it is hardly expected that they will actually honor that contract through the life of it. If they play well, they'll extend and give a pay bump. If not, they'll likely be sold.
If Suarez is sold for more than 100M I'll post a picture of myself in a Liverpool jersey on Facebook and make it my picture for a week with a sign that says "Owen R--- was right". If he gets sold for less, you wear a United jersey and make it your profile picture. No sign necessary since I should be giving you odds. Deal?
If Suarez is sold for more than 100M I'll post a picture of myself in a Liverpool jersey on Facebook and make it my picture for a week with a sign that says "Owen R--- was right". If he gets sold for less, you wear a United jersey and make it your profile picture. No sign necessary since I should be giving you odds. Deal?
The Guardian is reporting that talks are about to start ..
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jul/01/liverpool-barcelona-luis-suarez-alexis-sanchez
Hold the line boys .. It's Barcelona that's the suitor here .. No need to cave in to some middling offer. I'd say 60 million English Pounds plus Alexis Sanchez plus Pedro would make a fine deal.
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2014/jul/01/liverpool-barcelona-luis-suarez-alexis-sanchez
Hold the line boys .. It's Barcelona that's the suitor here .. No need to cave in to some middling offer. I'd say 60 million English Pounds plus Alexis Sanchez plus Pedro would make a fine deal.
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
I'd certainly feel better rooting for Liverpool if they got rid of that POS, great talent..however I think he's a disgrace to the Liver Bird badge. Get what you can for him, move on and win the league.
I dunno .. The biting thing is just .. Weird .. It's not like he's some punk thug that enjoys breaking ankles with two footed tackles.CodPiece XL said:
From a strictly business point of view , if they get his full release clause value then it's probably time to sell. As mentioned up-thread another incident and he's just about done. He sure was fun to watch though.
His overall performance this past season was the best of any player I've seen since I started watching the EPL.
That said, I wouldn't mind one bit if they got £50m + Alexis for him. It's like Dennis Rodman was as good as Scottie Pippen but started randomly biting people pretty often.
That said, I wouldn't mind one bit if they got £50m + Alexis for him. It's like Dennis Rodman was as good as Scottie Pippen but started randomly biting people pretty often.
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
You guys are hilarious. You will be lucky to get £50M plus Sanchez (forget Pedro) but are more likely to just get £65-80M pounds straight up.
I'm not saying it won't happen (because I really have no clue) but there's a reason that player swaps rarely occur in football transfers. Sanchez has every reason in the world to simply push for a transfer to whichever of his suitors offers the best wages/overall situation and meets Barca's price. You can threaten Barca that you won't sell Suarez unless you get Sanchez, but Barca has nearly no leverage to make Sanchez accept a transfer to a team that he doesn't want to join (if that is indeed the case).
The one thing I'll say is that if you do sell Suarez, your best bet is to get it done quickly so that you can spend the money intelligently and not simply blow it on every Soldado and Lamela that happens to be available with the window closing.
If Sanchez wants to go to a Suarez-less Liverpool instead of Barça then by all means let him. I'd say it's between 30-40M + Sanchez (his price has risen since the start of the WC) or just 65-70M. Of course if he's a model citizen he's worth about 90 million but then Liverpool probably wouldn't be selling him anyway. He's a dark mark on the club and he and Liverpool's supporters deserve each other. One look at RAWK confirms that statement, it's a matter of time before they swear they had always disliked him.
Newcastle Chronicle NUFC beat writer Lee Ryder just tweeted that Barca offered 72 million pounds for Suarez.
If Suarez stays he's going to get absolutely destroyed everywhere he goes not named Anfield. He's got to be the most hated sportsman in England at this point.
If Suarez stays he's going to get absolutely destroyed everywhere he goes not named Anfield. He's got to be the most hated sportsman in England at this point.
mgoblue2 said:
If you're basing your opinions off of anything that comes from RAWK - then you're really mistaken about Liverpool supporters in general. Now, I know you want some attention and all since it's crickets over in the Everton thread, but get real.
Great post.
Seven Costanza said:
This Guardian article, which like most UK broadsheet sports stories doesn't provide many sources but has hints of who the writer is talking to, hints at around the same number. I'm reading between the lines here, but the impression I get is that Suarez was told after last year's £40,000,001 bid that he could leave this summer for £70 million. There's also a note in here about Sanchez + £50 million, which in my book pushes the total to about £85 million (he's £26M on Transfermarkt, but I really like the guy).
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/28112887
Reds chief executive Ian Ayre spent much of Wednesday in discussions with senior Barcelona officials in London.
The Reds remain adamant Suarez, 27, will not be sold for less than the release clause in his contract, believed to be between £70m and £80m.
"The talks held were productive," a senior Liverpool source told the BBC.
"There are sensible expectations on both sides.
"Further talks and discussions will take place but no deal has yet been finalised."
Reds chief executive Ian Ayre spent much of Wednesday in discussions with senior Barcelona officials in London.
The Reds remain adamant Suarez, 27, will not be sold for less than the release clause in his contract, believed to be between £70m and £80m.
"The talks held were productive," a senior Liverpool source told the BBC.
"There are sensible expectations on both sides.
"Further talks and discussions will take place but no deal has yet been finalised."
Well yeah they're a bit extremist there and-I mean this sincerely-the Liverpool fans here are much more level headed or knowledgable and whatnot, but it's not crazy to say Suarez's value has dropped slightly because he's bit three players while playing soccer and twice while under contract to Liverpool. RAWK is its own discussion, but that doesn't mean there's some section of the normal fanbase who hasn't turned the other way as long as he's scoring 30 goals a season.SoxFanInPdx said:
I'm not really sure what you're getting at here. You think wouldn't be a similar element amongst your fellow toffee supporters were he wearing blue? I mean, I'm trying to stay away from the "Obvious troll is obvious" meme, but you're not making it easy.
If Suarez played for Everton there's no question there'd be some minority advocating for people to forgive him, but speaking from experience there's a higher tendency among Everton fans to criticize someone who's done something wrong. I don't mean that as a "we have better fans" thing because every set of supporters no matter what the team has batshit insane people somewhere. If you've ever heard of Ric Wee, someone recently got suspended from Goodison for a season for abusing him on Twitter. And somehow people were defending the guy who got suspended. That's a separate issue. I just don't have the same experience of Liverpool fans as a whole going and turning their backs on someone doing the things Suarez has. That may be down to not being a Liverpool fan, and if that's the case then there's an obvious blind spot on my part.JayMags71 said:
It actually reminds me a bit of Everton fans and their reaction to all of Duncan Ferguson's antics. I wasn't an Everton fan by then (I only started in 2012), but there are parallels.
That thing you said you weren't saying? You said it.
Like if I said, "I'm not saying Ross Barkley rapes goats, but he rapes goats." I'd be saying he rapes goats. Which he doesn't, as far as I know. If he does, man, would that ever be a coincidence.
Like if I said, "I'm not saying Ross Barkley rapes goats, but he rapes goats." I'd be saying he rapes goats. Which he doesn't, as far as I know. If he does, man, would that ever be a coincidence.
Sanchez is a hell of a player, if Liverpool get him and a boat load of money, that's not a terrible deal by any stretch. Sterling, Sturridge, Sanchez is quite an attack, the only worry would be of course Danny's ability to stay healthy.
I keep reading comparisons to Spurs selling Bale and using the money on a bunch of decent players, but Sanchez is a star(imo), especially if he isn't playing in Messi(and Neymar's) shadow. Adding lallana and some defensive help on top of that could make Liverpool a better balanced team capable of limiting the effects of Suarez's loss
I keep reading comparisons to Spurs selling Bale and using the money on a bunch of decent players, but Sanchez is a star(imo), especially if he isn't playing in Messi(and Neymar's) shadow. Adding lallana and some defensive help on top of that could make Liverpool a better balanced team capable of limiting the effects of Suarez's loss
Snakebauer007 said:
Yeah, all this talk about Suarez and Sanchez and Lallana...where the fuck are some competent, non-Skrtel defenders?
Prattle on about offense if you must but Liverpool will get hammered in the CL if they don't add significant talent to the defense. John Flanagan and Martin Kelly ARE walking through that door and they ain't nearly good enough.
It was their achilles heal last year and they’ve done little to nothing to address the problem. If Suarez goes and nets a significant return, I’d like to see some of that cash spent on solid defensive replacements.soxfan121 said:
Also, what’s the latest news on Origi and Markovic? I’ve read stories of ‘pursuit,’ but no official signings, as of yet.
And, FWIW: the Liverpool online store is selling last year’s kit at a pretty decent discount:
http://store.liverpoolfc.com/kit/12-13-kits/
Emre Can officially signed: http://www.football365.com/news/21554/9370390/Can-Proud-To-Join-Liverpool-Family-
Apparently Shaqiri is decided between Liverpool and Bayern.
Apparently Shaqiri is decided between Liverpool and Bayern.
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