I'm thinking more towards the middle ground. Say six years from now, Stanton has performed well, but perhaps not quite up to expectations.
His value on the open market might be something like 6/168 (28M+ AAV) vs the 7/228 (32M+ AAV) he's owed. Financially, it's a no-brainer to stay with the Marlins, even if they hope he opts out.
But consider, at this point Stanton is 31 years old and looking at spending the next seven years of his career in an organization that does not appear to be very serious about winning. One on hand, $60M guaranteed is a lot of money to pass up, but on the other, there's some value in being playing for the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Cardinals, et cetera, versus playing for an unambitious and uncompetitive Marlins team.
Obviously if he's Ryan Howard or Mark Teixeira in five or six years, he doesn't opt out. But I don't think he has to perform to or above the valuation of his last seven years to say "You know what? Screw this."
Loria probably knows that, and is probably fine with making "no, seriously, we're gonna compete!" moves every second or third off-season and then shipping them off a few months later.