I've had Giolito off-and-on my fantasy team over the last few years. He was inconsistent, to say the least. I never thought I could trust him for multiple solid outings.
Lucas Giolito signs 2 year, 38.5M contract with Red Sox (opt-out after 1 year, potential 3rd year option)
- Thread starter DeadlySplitter
- Start date
Good start now let's keep building the rotation. "All this negativity that's in this town sucks"
Are we only focused on eating innings now? Not winning them? For all the internet ink spilled on value on this board and all the players who aren’t worth the money, we’re certainly ok with a team that seemingly is ok with giving lots of money and leverage to guys who don’t seem to deserve it.
They had plenty of room this year too. Still waiting on a #1 or #2 starter and/or a 2B.
Is the player somewhat young and has time to improve? If so 10000%. This screams Ike a Wacha deal hoping he eats more innings but won’t actually improve anything.
Not getting enough innings from starters has been the single biggest problem for the team in each of the past two years.
Which also plays to the Giolito vs Wacha question: 2017 was the last year Wacha threw 160 innings. It was also the last year Giolito didn't.
Eating innings is a very important part of winning games over a 162 game season. Wasn’t that the value of guys like Tim Wakefield? They allow you to not have to rely on your bullpen for 4 or 5 innings every single night and not completely burn out the staff.
Look I would like to go acquire an ace as well, but the only potential one available wanted to play in LA.
Id rather see them go get a top of the rotation option. I’m betting that this is their solution to the top which is why I have a problem with it.
yes
This is low floor low ceiling move that just costs money. There's no point whatsoever to this. I can handle them sucking. Who cares really. But we see this move seemingly every year - a move that looks bad the moment the pen hits ink. Kluber, Richards, Perez, etc.
If Giolito pitches 150 innings there's a better chance that he has a 5+ era than one under 4. What's the difference with whether he does it or whatever aaa/waiver wire fodder?
This team has money problems because the contracts they give up are reactionary, and it's been an issue for over a decade. Lose out on Jose Abreu, sign Rusney Castillo. Lose Lester, sign Price. Whatever happened with Xander, so you offer Devers an absurd amount. They just keep repeating the same theme of mistake in perpetuity regardless of who is steering the ship
I would argue that if that player existed in this organization, they would already be penciled in on the depth chart. They just don’t have enough pitchers so they went and signed one, warts and all, because that’s what’s available right now.
Yeah it's really too bad we've run out of time and money this offseason without doing any of that.
I would rather see that as well, I just don’t think that they can do it right now.
Giolito also had a lot of personal baggage last season. On the field, he played and lived in three different cities in a six month time frame. Off the field, he was in the middle of a divorce from his wife during the summer. All of that and trying to pitch at a high level is really tough.
His first half was much better: 6-5 with a 3.45 ERA in 112 innings.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2000027/lucas-giolito/splits/2023/
His first half was much better: 6-5 with a 3.45 ERA in 112 innings.
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/players/2000027/lucas-giolito/splits/2023/
I disagree. If they have money problems it’s because they don’t develop enough pitching.
I hate this deal.
Not because of the player - whom I really like and think Bailey and Breslow can fix. Not because of the dollars, $19ish million is more than fine.
It’s because of the lack of team control. I desperately wanted them to sign someone - anyone - that they believed in enough to say “this guy and Bello are in our rotation for the next 3 to 4 years while we try to fix the major issues surrounding starting pitching in the organization.
This does not achieve that goal. I’d literally prefer this to be a 4/$100m deal (because I really do like Giolito) or even to have outbid Arizona for ERod (I actually prefer Giolito as a pitcher).
Like the player; absolutely hate the continuation of one year short term deals where you’re building toward nothing in the rotation. Now next off-season we get to do the whole “how do we fix 3 or 4 rotation holes AGAIN” discussion.
Not because of the player - whom I really like and think Bailey and Breslow can fix. Not because of the dollars, $19ish million is more than fine.
It’s because of the lack of team control. I desperately wanted them to sign someone - anyone - that they believed in enough to say “this guy and Bello are in our rotation for the next 3 to 4 years while we try to fix the major issues surrounding starting pitching in the organization.
This does not achieve that goal. I’d literally prefer this to be a 4/$100m deal (because I really do like Giolito) or even to have outbid Arizona for ERod (I actually prefer Giolito as a pitcher).
Like the player; absolutely hate the continuation of one year short term deals where you’re building toward nothing in the rotation. Now next off-season we get to do the whole “how do we fix 3 or 4 rotation holes AGAIN” discussion.
I don’t really get the concern of him pitching well and leaving after a year. It would be fantastic if he had a great year! We’ll worry about 25 later.
I get it, but, like, the offseason isn't over. Still possible they add another pitcher on a long-term deal.
I don’t really think that is where the concern lies. We’d all love for him to have a 3.50 ERA before the trade deadline. That either means he’s helping us to a playoff spot or setting us up to unload him for a decent prospect package.
The concern that I see is the alternative reality where he pitches poorly and we’re “stuck” with a $19M bottom-of-the-rotation starter for 2025. Not the end of the world, sure, but far from ideal.
They're shopping in the same poorly stocked free agent market that a buncha other teams are in. You don't pass on guys who have a chance at helping and say yes at market prices just because he's not your dream acquisition. With few exceptions, Gioloto is what's out there, more or less. Do you want him or not?
Feels like a move where either he's good for half a year and you trade him or he sucks for 2 years and is a waste of money that makes it less likely you spend on other, better players.
Isn't Giolito 29 with way more decent innings than bad? Also this is a prove it deal so he'll presumably be motivated.
By itself this is underwhelming and I get why we are sick of these deals but on it's own this seems like a decent signing.
In my view the biggest issue with the pitching last year was that the SPa couldn't get far into games and were hurt too often which stretched the pen beyond its limits. Giolito has consistently been above 150 innings a year since like 2017 or so.
I'm not hugely excited on the terms but he does offer something Boston needs badly.
I'm not hugely excited on the terms but he does offer something Boston needs badly.
We don’t know what other dominoes will fall. I would love to see them sign Imanaga.
totally totally agree. More betwixt and between stuff, just like Bloom. I mean the best case is that he plays at the top of his range and then opts out: one year of Giolito at his best would be worth the money they'll give him. But damn ...just go get top talent I agree.
Exactly. Jeez. This is the opposite of Kluber, Richards, etc… good lord. This guy was a legit #2 from 2019-21 and he’s only 29.
Can he get back there? Let’s find out.
But to compare this to Kluber is just lazy.
Maybe but Imanaga has a January 11 deadline. I'm not sure that Montgomery will sign before that.
What top talent is available now that Yamamoto is in LA? You ready to sign Monty or Snell for 7 or 8 years? The Giolito signing doesn’t handcuff them at all to make future acquisitions.
I’m pretty happy with this, and eager to see how Bailey approaches it.
We’re going over the lux tax threshold, hopefully the first two, the next two years so the AAV doesn’t matter all that much. Getting him with a commitment under 3 years is good though, and if he walks after a good 2024 the pick is nice.
Seems like the first domino in a series of them, and gives us a starter to use in the trade market. Giolito’s not a whole lot different an asset than Pivetta.
Giolito had elite fastball ride that became only slightly above average after the sticky stuff crackdown. A few guys in SF also had spin rate drops (Webb among them) and they made additional leaps. SF pitchers seem to work well with heavy fastballs and “light” changeups (less vertical drop) and Giolito is reportedly analytical, so I imagine he’ll have a whole new repertoire tweak.
We’re going over the lux tax threshold, hopefully the first two, the next two years so the AAV doesn’t matter all that much. Getting him with a commitment under 3 years is good though, and if he walks after a good 2024 the pick is nice.
Seems like the first domino in a series of them, and gives us a starter to use in the trade market. Giolito’s not a whole lot different an asset than Pivetta.
Giolito had elite fastball ride that became only slightly above average after the sticky stuff crackdown. A few guys in SF also had spin rate drops (Webb among them) and they made additional leaps. SF pitchers seem to work well with heavy fastballs and “light” changeups (less vertical drop) and Giolito is reportedly analytical, so I imagine he’ll have a whole new repertoire tweak.
The above is more where my concern lies. The organization seemingly lacks any conviction at all.
Most likely scenario (for me at least), Giolito is a decent innings eater. Something this team desperately needs. It’s around July 15th and Bello is a solid SP2. The team is hanging around the periphery of a playoff spot because when nearly half the league makes the playoffs, it takes a special kind of suck to have been so bad that you’re more than 5 games out of the last WC by that time.
Sale has pitched about 10 games where he’s been excellent, but has been on the IL for a month with who knows what, and is “expected to come back” around 8/15. So the Sox don’t make any moves of consequence (ie neither buying nor selling), Sale doesn’t come back until 9/15 by which time the team has gone from call it 3.5 games back to 7 games back.
End of the year Giolito has given them the 180ip they desperately need with an ERA around 4.50, at which point he opts out because that will get him a heck of a lot more than $19m and one year. The Red Sox go into 2025 with still no playoff appearance, not willing to offer the QO, and we predictably go into 2025 having wasted a year, acquired no long term MLB pieces around which to build NOR have they sold off the one year guys (Sale, Jansen, Martin, Pivetta, Giolito) for more prospects.
We continue to have a slightly below mediocre product that stays in its continual rut because all they’ve accomplished is another season of fake “contention” and still have done absolutely nothing of consequence to address the fact that our entire organizational pitching situation remains as it is now, Bello, a bunch of swing guys that you can say might be good (but probably only as BP pieces),players on one year deals and prospects that frankly every other somewhat competent organization not only has but generally also has multiple of at every level (kind of how like the Yankees had Hampton, Vazquez, Beeter, Fitts, Thorpe, Warren, Selvidge and Carr, just as an example).
I know it seems I dislike the player, and that cannot be further from the truth.
I’d be applauding vociferously this as a 4/$100m deal. Even if we signed someone I didon’t want (ie Lugo’s deal), I’d at least be applauding them doing something to fix a glaring problem in the organization. This deal does none of those things.
I can’t stress enough my distaste for the continual one year stop gap deals with the organizational SP at the MLB, AAA and AA levels bordering on baseball malpractice.
Again, I really like Giolito. He provides a lot of what this organization desperately needs. If this was 3 or 4 years, I’d really like it.
For one year, I hate it.
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I like this a lot better than Montgomery for 8 years and crazy money TBH (and I like Montgomery).
I don't think he will be worse than a good SP for them. If he is very good to great, then there's a good chance they are in the race in September, and then he moves on next year. If he is just okay to poor then sure, they are stuck with him next year, but they don't currently have any money issues because of that, and are in pretty good shape in regards to the CBA, and the 4/5 pitcher slot next year will be filled so they won't have to worry about it.
If he is mediocre and opts in, then you have a reasonably priced, moderately effective SP for up to 3 years, if you so choose.
Being able to throw a QO at him if he declines his option (or even next year, if he takes the option), is a bonus.
I don't think he will be worse than a good SP for them. If he is very good to great, then there's a good chance they are in the race in September, and then he moves on next year. If he is just okay to poor then sure, they are stuck with him next year, but they don't currently have any money issues because of that, and are in pretty good shape in regards to the CBA, and the 4/5 pitcher slot next year will be filled so they won't have to worry about it.
If he is mediocre and opts in, then you have a reasonably priced, moderately effective SP for up to 3 years, if you so choose.
Being able to throw a QO at him if he declines his option (or even next year, if he takes the option), is a bonus.
He specifically showed that this isn’t unique. Unless you mean for this or the last century, in which case, yeah.
I’m wondering, given the difficult season Giolito had last year - traded twice and the divorce - that if he has a nice year here, he might just want to stay. That doesn’t mean he would be cheap. But if he had success and trusted the pitching brain group, I can see a new deal happening. For him in particular, some stability might be nice.
This is an interesting element. If by chance he goes down with Tommy John next summer, the Sox can pay him $14M for his rebound year.
Better than all else being equal with the 2 year deal with an opt out.
I’m fairly skeptical that Giolito can regain his 4-5 win form. I could definitely envision him being a solid 2-3 player though.
My concern is more with the deal structure. I guess philosophically I’m against giving pitchers 2 year deals with opt outs after one year unless there is a huge discount in year one. There is such an asymmetry in upside vs downside that it’s hard to justify it. If he blows out his elbow or is as ineffective as he was in the 2nd half, you’re out $40M. If he’s awesome and gives you 4 wins, you have surplus value of like $20M and he’s gone after one season.
What gives me some comfort is Breslow isn’t a dummy so surely he knows this. So maybe he is pretty confident that he can get Giolito to regain his prior form.
My concern is more with the deal structure. I guess philosophically I’m against giving pitchers 2 year deals with opt outs after one year unless there is a huge discount in year one. There is such an asymmetry in upside vs downside that it’s hard to justify it. If he blows out his elbow or is as ineffective as he was in the 2nd half, you’re out $40M. If he’s awesome and gives you 4 wins, you have surplus value of like $20M and he’s gone after one season.
What gives me some comfort is Breslow isn’t a dummy so surely he knows this. So maybe he is pretty confident that he can get Giolito to regain his prior form.
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At almost twice the money
Well at least Breslow was in the same city as Lucas G so maybehe knows what’s he’s doing.
Risk reward seems not worth it
I feel indifferent. Best case scenario, Breslow/Bailey can ‘fix’ him and get ~170 IP on a 3.75 ERA. The Sox win 87 games and they get a comp pick when he signs elsewhere.
He fills a hole for 2024, a year where they’re not going anywhere. It’s another purgatory signing.
Would’ve been nice to get a team option for the E-Rod contract or something.
He fills a hole for 2024, a year where they’re not going anywhere. It’s another purgatory signing.
Would’ve been nice to get a team option for the E-Rod contract or something.
From 19-21 Guilito was every bit as good as Montgomery. He’s not been as good as his standard over the past couple years but went through some serious family trouble.
He’s the type of guy the Sox need to supplement next year’s staff. The market said this is what the Sox needed to offer. The team needs an innings eater and Guolito is that. He’s motivated to perform. If the Sox can fix an issue he’s a guy they might be able to retain with a reworked contract.
Because its just the team spinning its wheels. Are we trying to build another championship team? Do we think the 2024 edition is has a decent chance of being a championship team? Is Giolito going to be a productive member of the next championship team?
I'd say most of us think the odds of a 2024 championship are not high - we still have too many holes, especially in the rotation, and we need time for young talent to emerge. If the 2024 team doesn't win, but Giolito has a good to great year, he'll just leave for more money and more years elsewhere and we are right back to where we are now in terms of building a championship rotation. We need to find starters who are likely to be productive members of our franchise for more than a season.
Very very sss, but he did have one start at Stade Fasciste in 2023 and threw 6 scoreless innings
some hope to cling to
some hope to cling to