Lucky grants you a wish . . .
- Thread starter Saints Rest
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Maybe not best for the team but selfishly, I'd love to see what TL could do with an entire season (consisting of maybe 70-75 games plus playoffs) at 25 mpg (average) at full health and full speed. That would be a joy.
My guess he's probably make at least 1 3P during that time!
My guess he's probably make at least 1 3P during that time!
Definitely Tatum taking a leap. He isn't currently good enough to make up for Brown's shortcomings (even with an improved handle). Having a surefire superstar who is consistently the best player on the floor would do the most for the team if it's to achieve its goals.
I vote for Rob healthy for both all regular season and playoffs and Jaylen improves handle so that opposing teams DO suspect mysticism
Another Tatum upgrade basically makes a lot of the other stuff much less important and means you can comfortable trade Jaylen for some lesser but well-fitting pieces if need be, etc.
But yeah giving Timelord Wolverine's healing factor would maybe be the most exciting. We basically saw peak TL for about 30 games two years ago and it led to historically good defense.
But yeah giving Timelord Wolverine's healing factor would maybe be the most exciting. We basically saw peak TL for about 30 games two years ago and it led to historically good defense.
Brown and Tatum would probably be the two best answers for the Celtics, as they'll definitely be around for a while and would have the most impact on getting a ring.
But I went with Time Lord, because I just love watching him play so much, and am convinced there's an NBA All-Star in there if everything broke right.
But I went with Time Lord, because I just love watching him play so much, and am convinced there's an NBA All-Star in there if everything broke right.
Yup, this.
I wrote last summer that there are several paths to MVP. Basically all of them involve scoring 25+ ppg, but in addition, you need at least one of the following:
-Double digit rebounds
-7+ assists
-1st team level defense
-A+ scoring efficiency at volume
Despite the fact that his rebounds have been ticking up every year, I can't quite see him getting to 10 a game in the regular season (I am aware that he was at double digits in the bubble and again this spring, but he's not averaging that over 70+ games). He's turned himself into a great distributor for his size, but he's never going to be a major triple double threat. His defense is consistently very very good, but I seem Shawn Marion as the best comp defensively - a monster off the ball who cannot be exploited in any matchup, but for whatever reason, will never get the respect necessary to rack up multiple all-defensive teams (Marion enjoyed a pretty nice rep as an excellent all-purpose big wing defender, but somehow never made a single all-defense team). Tatum's path to MVP is to shoot 40% from 3, while maintaining his performance this past year from 2 and from the line (his 2p% and FTr were both career bests by a solid margin). He's already a top 5 player when you take everything into account (and back to back 1st team all-NBA selections means he's recognized as such), if he shoots 40% from 3 at volume, he'll be a slightly smaller, faster, Kevin Durant. That's a guy in the argument for best player in the league, and that's more valuable than anything else on this list.
The others, in order:
-Brown improving his handle. He took more shit this year than ever before on this and he's consistently improved year to year, so I think there's a reasonable chance this happens anyway (he got some bad press for it last year too, but he shared that with Tatum and they still made the finals so it was light criticism). With Tatum's continued ascension and the addition of Porzingis he'll hopefully have more space regardless. He's never going to be an ideal #2 beside Tatum, but this is the clearest path for improvement for him.
-Williams staying healthy for the full year, including playoffs. I might have put this at #1 last year, but two things have changed. First, I think his ceiling is lower (or more clearly defined), and staying healthy doesn't necessarily mean his athleticism from 2 years ago is back. Second, the addition of Porzingis just makes Rob less important to the team generally. He's a playoff rotation big which is extremely valuable, but he's not the guy on the court at the end of playoff games. Until that changes, this is just less important than other things.
-Pritchard leading the league in 3p%. This would be nice, but at the end of the day he's topping out as the 8th man in the Celtics' rotation, and he may be 9th or 10th depending on how injuries shake out. The Celtics already had a couple of role players near the top of the league in 3p% during the regular season (Horford was 2nd and Brogdon was 4th), at at the end of the day, did it really matter? Regardless of the reason, they combined to shoot 23% from 3 in the ECF. Regular season rankings for reserves just isn't worth much for a team with title aspirations.
This is a weird hypo. Tatum taking another leap means Tatum is the best player in the game, so it’s hard to see how that’s not the first choice. Like, Tatum is already 1st team NBA and close to being a serious MVP candidate. He is an unquestioned superstar. A leap makes him a generational level superstar, someone that sits at the Durant/Kawhi level of player. The type of player who can lead you to NBA championships.
Jaylen improving his handle significantly is close with Timelord health. Jaylen’s handle is only part of his problem as he still would lack feel, which is the bigger thing holding Jaylen back. I think his turnovers are a mix of a less than stellar handle and bad feel/vision. Fixing the handle will help, and it’s the part that is fixable, but it’s not a game changer. Timelord being healthy could be a big deal, but only if it also leads to him playing at his peak, which isn’t part of the hypothetical. Otherwise it’s just nice to have.
This is where we get to the weird part. The 4th part of this should have to do with White or Porzingis. Porzingis stays healthy or Porzingis continues to be an elite post offensive player or White becomes a 40% shooter. Those all at least matter to this team contending. Pritchard shooting better doesn’t matter almost at all, especially since the status quo is he is a very very good shooter. I’m not even sure I would want Pritchard to shoot that well as I tend to think Hauser is the logical 8th man come playoffs, and Pritchard shooting too well could lead to suboptimal playoff rotations. In contrast, if I could guarantee White as a 40% shooter in the regulars season and the playoffs, I’d rank that second to Tatum in importance. Porzingis staying healthy would be the same.
Jaylen improving his handle significantly is close with Timelord health. Jaylen’s handle is only part of his problem as he still would lack feel, which is the bigger thing holding Jaylen back. I think his turnovers are a mix of a less than stellar handle and bad feel/vision. Fixing the handle will help, and it’s the part that is fixable, but it’s not a game changer. Timelord being healthy could be a big deal, but only if it also leads to him playing at his peak, which isn’t part of the hypothetical. Otherwise it’s just nice to have.
This is where we get to the weird part. The 4th part of this should have to do with White or Porzingis. Porzingis stays healthy or Porzingis continues to be an elite post offensive player or White becomes a 40% shooter. Those all at least matter to this team contending. Pritchard shooting better doesn’t matter almost at all, especially since the status quo is he is a very very good shooter. I’m not even sure I would want Pritchard to shoot that well as I tend to think Hauser is the logical 8th man come playoffs, and Pritchard shooting too well could lead to suboptimal playoff rotations. In contrast, if I could guarantee White as a 40% shooter in the regulars season and the playoffs, I’d rank that second to Tatum in importance. Porzingis staying healthy would be the same.
I think that healthy, effective Rob is the obvious answer. Tatum and Brown will come back as slightly improved versions of themselves, as they always do. Peak Rob is a plus plus player. Gimpy Rob is Daniel Theis. He's a game-changer when healthy (which is admittedly not often).
If pritchard leads the league in three does that mean he has improved enough defensively to get enough shots off? because that would be fun to watch.
But my answer is tatum because of what everyone else has already said
But my answer is tatum because of what everyone else has already said
Yeah, I'm a little surprised how many think its a slam dunk answer for Tatum or Jaylen here. I definitely get that that extra bump from top 5-10 to top 3 can the difference in a title.
But the delta between a gimpy occasionally available Rob to peak Rob every game is massive.
Not sure anything else could make a bigger difference on the season than that.
Tatum to me is the obvious answer, you win with top 5 players, a mini-leap puts Tatum in off-prime LeBron, off-prime Curry, and prime-Kawhi or prime-Giannis territory... those guys win titles even with less than perfect supporting casts.
Brown, better handle would be nice, but a lot of his issues aren't really handle, they're decision making and Basketball IQ related.
TL... sure healthy TL would be cool... but he's a mostly 1 side of the floor player and honestly his not being available has made people overlook his flaws.
PP.... who gives a shit, Brogdon lead the league in 3pt% last year, and was a much better all-around player than Pritchard and he was only a marginal impact on a title.
Brown, better handle would be nice, but a lot of his issues aren't really handle, they're decision making and Basketball IQ related.
TL... sure healthy TL would be cool... but he's a mostly 1 side of the floor player and honestly his not being available has made people overlook his flaws.
PP.... who gives a shit, Brogdon lead the league in 3pt% last year, and was a much better all-around player than Pritchard and he was only a marginal impact on a title.
I think you are underselling a healthy Timelord here...he's a DPOY candidate and would be a huge boost if healthy and in top form the entire season. This hypothetical is probably the least likely to be true given the knee issues so I'm not expecting it to happen unfortunately. But the difference between JAG Timelord and DPOY Timelord is worth A TON.
If you assume Tatum is unchanged or minimally improved from last season as a baseline, there is only so much more he can move the needle than he already does. I suppose a unanimous MVP type season would be a big improvement, but I vote for healthy peak Timelord as both least likely and the biggest game changer I would wish for.
Edit: To be clear, I'm taking some liberties and assuming healthy Timelord also means peak Timelord. If he's just playing all the time but somewhat compromised, my answer would definitely change to Tatum.
Pritchard.
3D chess
We then turn and trade him for a haul.
I ked I ked.
Tatum
TL (I took the question to IMPLY that not only healthy but also as least ALMOST as explosive as he was last spring).
Jalen. Dude is frustrating (I have posted as much) but he is plenty as a second fiddle to JT especially with Zinger. I might rather hope Lucky grants that he comes back...."and recognizes his place on this team" (which is 2nd fiddle to Tatum) as a greater incremental improvement for the team rather then an improved handle.
Pritchard.....unless we can trade his league leading ass.
3D chess
We then turn and trade him for a haul.
I ked I ked.
Tatum
TL (I took the question to IMPLY that not only healthy but also as least ALMOST as explosive as he was last spring).
Jalen. Dude is frustrating (I have posted as much) but he is plenty as a second fiddle to JT especially with Zinger. I might rather hope Lucky grants that he comes back...."and recognizes his place on this team" (which is 2nd fiddle to Tatum) as a greater incremental improvement for the team rather then an improved handle.
Pritchard.....unless we can trade his league leading ass.
I voted for Jaylen and I don’t think it is close.
One caveat, I took healthy Rob to mean he stays on the court, not that he magically regains his form from 21/22. I don’t think he was the same player last year. Still good but not the same.
I took Jaylen over Tatum because Tatum says “mini-leap” whereas I think Jaylen would take a big leap with a significantly improved handle
One caveat, I took healthy Rob to mean he stays on the court, not that he magically regains his form from 21/22. I don’t think he was the same player last year. Still good but not the same.
I took Jaylen over Tatum because Tatum says “mini-leap” whereas I think Jaylen would take a big leap with a significantly improved handle
A fully healthy TL is still the 4th or 5th best player on the team. If they wanted to make it interesting should have been fully healthy KP
JT taking another mini-leap is not magical, it's my expectation. TL staying health the entire season and playing no worse than he did last year would be magical and a major plus towards winning the title.
The floor and ceiling of Timelord is by far the biggest Delta on the team, probably not even close.
Even if he's just the 4th best player on the team, Timelord playing 30 minutes a night like he was pre-meniscus surgery is worth more than any of the options (again, assuming the "floor" for Tatum is something similar to what he did last season).
I just don't expect it to happen for Rob unfortunately.
Exactly my thinking on this, except I envision a healthy Rob as the freak that was wrecking offenses from February-April 2022. Tatum continuing to improve is already baked into the guy's work ethic.
I think you are underselling MB here; if he were healthy, I think the BOS beats MIA.
If we get the 2022 regular season version of Rob (who was a 1st team defense level defender and one of the best offensive rebounders and vertical threats in the game), that's one thing. I think he was pretty healthy near the end of this past season, but his play wasn't close to what he was before his injury last March. I suspect a 100% healthy TL is pretty close to what we saw most of this year, just more available. I don't see 26 year old Rob returning to his athleticism from 2-4 years ago, even if 100% healthy.
If we were guaranteed both health and 2022 Rob, I'd bump that up to 2nd. Still less important than Tatum taking the leap to legit MVP candidate, even if the latter is more expected than TL being healthy for the first time ever.
If we were guaranteed both health and 2022 Rob, I'd bump that up to 2nd. Still less important than Tatum taking the leap to legit MVP candidate, even if the latter is more expected than TL being healthy for the first time ever.
I do too... I don't think we beat DEN though. If Tatum is taking a mini-leap he's a solo series winner type of player... That is the hardest thing to find in the NBA and what the vast majority of title winners have in common.
Edit-mostly though people are wildly overrating what the best we've seen from TL was. It was an excellent defender but not much on offense and a nonelite rebounder. It was exciting and encouraging for a player with hypothetical growth to come... He wasn't a guy who elevates a team the way a star does. Especially since much of his best was regular season where nobody is attacking his weaknesses the way the Heat did this year for example
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Strong disagree re: Timelord, he was absolutely a major difference maker, even with the offensive shortcomings.
Of course stars like Tatum are far more valuable, but I’m operating from the assumption that “no change” from Tatum is already a highly valuable star.
I will go to my grave believing that injuries to Brogdon and in G7 to Tatum cost the Celtics a title.
If you played out the Miami series 10 times with both rosters at full health the Celtics win at least 9 times.
As to your first point, someone (Lowe or guest?) said DEN was rooting hard for MIA because "MIA IS [DEN]'s best matchup snd BOS is [DEN]'s worst matchup". It would have been a great series.
As for TL, I remember Gorman asking Scal during the Cs 2022 run whether TL had the highest upside of any of the Cs. That's just an anecdote.
But in terms of analysis, while we don't know how good 2022 TL might have become if he didn't get injured, I presume we're getting the guy who could protect the rim; guard on the perimeter; and get a few hustle baskets every game. Getting that consistently next year would mean a ton to the Cs. Plus, it's super-entertaining!
Tatum basically said the same in 2022. At or just before the all-star game he was asked who on the Celtics, other than JB, might join him at future games. TL was his quick answer:
https://www.masslive.com/celtics/2022/02/jayson-tatum-thinks-rob-williams-will-be-an-all-star-in-future-hes-on-the-right-path.html
I just don't see healthy TL returning to his form from regular season 2022. Was he not healthy these playoffs? He wasn't on the injury list, he played in all 20 playoff games, and we've seen references to him having a healthy summer for like the first time ever. There's improvement to be had around the edges, but I don't think he's getting the athleticism back that made him a 99th percentile defender, healthy or not.
It was mentioned above, but it'd be a more interesting question if this were for Porzingis. He's got a higher ceiling that TL for sure (and possibly higher than Brown), if we guaranteed health for him he's already an all-star caliber player and potentially the best scoring big man the Celtics have had since McHale.
Jaylen with a 2:1 assist/turnover ratio would mean going from last year's count of 232:197 to something like 280:140, reclaiming about 3/4 of a turnover per game (= +.80 offensive points scored and probably +1.0 or so points saved on those plays since a bunch will be live-ball turnovers leading to fast breaks) and the additional assists at about +1/2 per game add another 0.50 pts / game. So that's +2.3 points margin per game, assuming he stays healthy (which he largely always has). That's a LOT. If you compare team SRS, that's like going from the Bulls or Pelicans, play-in teams around a +1.4 to +1.6 SRS, to the Bucks or Grizzlies at +3.6 SRS.
Tatum going from his current +4.2 DARKO DPM (9th in the league) to another jump to, say, +5.0 DPM (3rd in the league, ahead of Giannis at 4.9 and behind Embiid at 5.5 and Jokic at 7.1) would be a great jump for him, but I think just wouldn't affect the team's outcome quite as much.
Tatum going from his current +4.2 DARKO DPM (9th in the league) to another jump to, say, +5.0 DPM (3rd in the league, ahead of Giannis at 4.9 and behind Embiid at 5.5 and Jokic at 7.1) would be a great jump for him, but I think just wouldn't affect the team's outcome quite as much.
Upside sure, but not performance was the point. TL was a guy with incredible gifts athletically, who was young and had some hints of skill, that's a guy who could be really good eventually, he also brought a needed role-player skill to that team. In order for "healthy TL" to be a major championship factor, you need to both assume a return to the best form he ever had and improvement.
Looking at this team... do we think TL is making the closing 5 if he's healthy.....
I'm not sure he will. White, Brown, Tatum, KP are locks.... I'm not so sure TL is the last guy, I think most times it will be Horford
Not sure why you think a somewhat improved handle (what the question presents) will lead to a huge increase in assists like that. going for 197 to 140 turnovers is highly unlikely by itself, given that the bulk of turnovers aren't strips off a dribble they are bad passes, offensive fouls, lost rebounds, travels etc. You aren't dropping your turnovers by 29% just by tightening up the handle some. More importantly, handle has little to do with assists, you would maybe expect a 1% bump at most? No reason to think you'd see a 21% increase.
Edit- I'd also say that the impact of any of these changes is probably not a big deal in the regular season, it's key playoff series where it would matter, and that's why I'd say even a modest improvement in the play of your best 2-way player is important, that's who gets the ball and dominates the key possessions.
The OP specified an improvement to a 2:1 A:T ratio.
3. Jaylen Brown improves his handle significantly, but not to the point that other teams suspect mystical hijinks. Something like a 2-to-1 assist to turnover ratio.
whoops I missed that must have stopped at "improved handle but not mystical improved"
So not an improved handle at all, but a massive, enormous and fundamental change to who he is as a player.
Yeah, if Jaylen improved his handle and magically became a much better passer, that might be more impactful than anything else. A 2:1 ratio puts him way ahead of Tatum as a passer, basically borderline PG levels.
Everyone focuses on Jimmy Butler's clutch play and ability to get to the free throw line, but his greatest talent may be his ball security. He's never been a point guard or really even a point forward (though he did average 7.1 apg in 2021), but he's got a career A/TO ratio of 2.625, and in Miami it's 2.95. If Jaylen could get anywhere near those numbers, it would be wonderful.
