It’s been said many times by others already, but a JT that shoots 40% from 3 is the best player in the league. Go ahead and play your zone, Miami. Boston will beat you by 20 every game.
Yup, this.
I wrote last summer that there are several paths to MVP. Basically all of them involve scoring 25+ ppg, but in addition, you need at least one of the following:
-Double digit rebounds
-7+ assists
-1st team level defense
-A+ scoring efficiency at volume
Despite the fact that his rebounds have been ticking up every year, I can't quite see him getting to 10 a game in the regular season (I am aware that he was at double digits in the bubble and again this spring, but he's not averaging that over 70+ games). He's turned himself into a great distributor for his size, but he's never going to be a major triple double threat. His defense is consistently very very good, but I seem Shawn Marion as the best comp defensively - a monster off the ball who cannot be exploited in any matchup, but for whatever reason, will never get the respect necessary to rack up multiple all-defensive teams (Marion enjoyed a pretty nice rep as an excellent all-purpose big wing defender, but somehow never made a single all-defense team). Tatum's path to MVP is to shoot 40% from 3, while maintaining his performance this past year from 2 and from the line (his 2p% and FTr were both career bests by a solid margin). He's already a top 5 player when you take everything into account (and back to back 1st team all-NBA selections means he's recognized as such), if he shoots 40% from 3 at volume, he'll be a slightly smaller, faster, Kevin Durant. That's a guy in the argument for best player in the league, and that's more valuable than anything else on this list.
The others, in order:
-Brown improving his handle. He took more shit this year than ever before on this and he's consistently improved year to year, so I think there's a reasonable chance this happens anyway (he got some bad press for it last year too, but he shared that with Tatum and they still made the finals so it was light criticism). With Tatum's continued ascension and the addition of Porzingis he'll hopefully have more space regardless. He's never going to be an ideal #2 beside Tatum, but this is the clearest path for improvement for him.
-Williams staying healthy for the full year, including playoffs. I might have put this at #1 last year, but two things have changed. First, I think his ceiling is lower (or more clearly defined), and staying healthy doesn't necessarily mean his athleticism from 2 years ago is back. Second, the addition of Porzingis just makes Rob less important to the team generally. He's a playoff rotation big which is extremely valuable, but he's not the guy on the court at the end of playoff games. Until that changes, this is just less important than other things.
-Pritchard leading the league in 3p%. This would be nice, but at the end of the day he's topping out as the 8th man in the Celtics' rotation, and he may be 9th or 10th depending on how injuries shake out. The Celtics already had a couple of role players near the top of the league in 3p% during the regular season (Horford was 2nd and Brogdon was 4th), at at the end of the day, did it really matter? Regardless of the reason, they combined to shoot 23% from 3 in the ECF. Regular season rankings for reserves just isn't worth much for a team with title aspirations.