Mookie Betts: Superstar?

[Darnell's Son]

Happy Opening Day!

iayork wrote about Mookie's 2015 season, focusing on an adjustment that pitchers made to him that led to his slow start, and then his counter to that adjustment.

In the first half of 2015, Mookie Betts batted .273/.326/.447/.773 – a respectable, but not overwhelming line, and significantly lower than the .812 OPS he had put up as a rookie in 2014. From July 1 on, Betts hit a much more impressive .310/.356/.512/.868. Was he doing anything differently?

As with everything Ian does, it's worth a read.

(That would be helpful huh?)

 

[Koufax]

Link?

 

[Devizier]

Not to nitpick but the lede paragraph needs more line spacing. It looks too crowded.

 

[Import78]

The last paragraph repeats, once before the final graphic and once afterwards.

 

[Darnell's Son]

The last paragraph repeats, once before the final graphic and once afterwards.

Thanks, looks like it was a Word Press glitch.

As for the spacing in the intro, not much we can do about that.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Cool article, iayork. Just more reason to salivate about watching this kid for the next five years.

The increase in TB/pitch in the second half is especially impressive considering that he was swinging less, so his TB/swing was really up. Interestingly, though, his ISO was virtually identical in the first vs. second half (.187/.189), while his BABIP went way up (.290/.338). So it looks like a lot of the TB increase was actually in singles, which makes sense given that his LD and GB% went up (17.9/21.6 and 36.2/40.8, respectively) at the expense of his FB% (45.8/37.6).

 

[Gubanich Plague]

Despite the glitches, the content was great; thanks!

 

[67WasBest]

No glich on my Galaxy Note 4. Excellent read that validated with data what my eyes were seeing. The kid has so much ability, and a sharp mind to match. Next 5 years will be a joy watching all these kids, but Mookie stands out as the guy with the most WOW factor.

Thanks for another superior piece of work Ian.

 

[RedOctober3829]

I'm hoping that they can lock Betts up like the Pirates just did with Gregory Polanco. 5 years, $30-$40 million with a couple of club options that push the contract over $60 million. If they wait any longer, his price is going to go way up.
http://sports.yahoo.com/news/source--gregory-polanco--pirates-agree-to-five-year-extension-131938688-mlb.html

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

Based on performance, Betts is going to take a lot more than Polanco to lock up. Polanco's been a (relative) disappointment thus far, putting up a 2-and-change win season last year in a full year, and less than a win's worth in a 90 game sample the previous year. Betts put up 5 WAR last year, and enough of it was based on excellent hitting that the error bars on that aren't gigantic.

 

[jimbobim]

Cameron has always been on board but his projection would be a gorgeous thing...

If he continues to hit the mistakes he sees while also seeing a significant spike in his walk rate, Betts may be capable of a .300/.400/.500 kind of season. Toss in his defensive and baserunning value, and Betts could emerge as the best non-Trout outfielder in the American League.

We saw the early stages of his potential superstardom in the final four months of last season, when he hit .315/.361/.525 over his final 429 plate appearances. While maintaining elite contact rates, Betts showed that he can drive the ball consistently, and that power may allow him to develop into an all-around offensive threat.
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/five-things-i-believe-about-the-2016-season/

 

[Al Zarilla]

MLB Network on its MLB Central show today got on board with the Mookie-McCutchen comparisons. Mark DeRosa doing the talking, they showed both of them turning on the inside pitch, lightning quick hands, can't get anything by them, etc. Showing side by side videos of them, they are very, very similar looking. We started the Mookie/Cutch comparisons on SOSH, when, last summer when Mookie got over the bad BABIP luck he had going early on in the season?

DeRosa also mentioned he thinks Mookie has an MVP in his future, and that he, DeRosa talked to Ortiz this spring and Papi said he was "wearing him out", asking every question he could about hitting, even how to watch film. We've also heard that before, that Mookie is like a sponge for knowledge. Nice for MLB Network to get on board the Mookie train, anyway.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

Mookie is a dead ringer for young McCutchen, ages 22-24 or so, batting-wise. McCutchen really broke out in his age 25 year, where he added 50 points of OBP and 100 points of slugging to his line to become a .900+ OPS monster and one of the best hitters in the NL. It's probably unreasonable for anyone to expect Betts to be quite that good--on the order of putting up .300/.400/.550 lines at least--it was really surprising that McCutchen developed that much power for a guy his size, and he's probably a little bigger than Betts. Mookie does have a chance to be of similar overall value because McCutchen is a mediocre defensive CF and a scratch baserunner while Betts is still developing as an outfielder and has the opportunity to add runs with his legs.

 

[Maximus]

Get on board the Mookie train, the kid is going to be a superstar.

 

[BaseballJones]

He has everything it takes to be a superstar. Talent. Work ethic. Charisma helps too. Seems like he has a perfect temperament. I could see him posting an ops north of .880 this year, and be worth about 7.5+ WAR. That would make him a superstar. At age 23.

The sky's the limit with this kid.

By the way, in yesterday's starting lineup, the Sox had five players 26 or younger: Swihart (24), Bogaerts (23), Shaw (26), Bradley (26), and Betts (23). That includes three of the four up-the-middle players (Swihart, Bogaerts, Bradley).

And it's not like the other guys are old (besides Ortiz, which is ok seeing as though he's a DH): Hanley is 32, Pedey is 32, and Holt is 28.

Pretty nice.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

What are his eyes like?

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

What are his eyes like?

Dreamy.

 

[smastroyin]

Calm. The answer we were looking for is calm.

 

[Erik Hanson's Hook]

He has everything it takes to be a superstar. Talent. Work ethic. Charisma helps too. Seems like he has a perfect temperament. I could see him posting an ops north of .880 this year, and be worth about 7.5+ WAR. That would make him a superstar. At age 23.

The sky's the limit with this kid.

By the way, in yesterday's starting lineup, the Sox had five players 26 or younger: Swihart (24), Bogaerts (23), Shaw (26), Bradley (26), and Betts (23). That includes three of the four up-the-middle players (Swihart, Bogaerts, Bradley).

And it's not like the other guys are old (besides Ortiz, which is ok seeing as though he's a DH): Hanley is 32, Pedey is 32, and Holt is 28.

Pretty nice.

32 is old in today's post-steroid game, is it not?

Slight hijack aside...I agree on the Mookie love. His skill set reminds me a little bit of Biggio.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

32 is old in today's post-steroid game, is it not?

Slight hijack aside...I agree on the Mookie love. His skill set reminds me a little bit of Biggio.

32 isn't old, it's on the tail end of a player's prime years. I'd say anything over 36 is old at this point.

 

[MyDaughterLovesTomGordon]

MLB WAR leaders last year by age at close of season:
1. 22
2. 31
3. 23
4. 29
5. 29
6. 27
7. 31
8. 30
9. 27
10. 27

32 doesn't quite seem old yet. But it's getting there.

 

[JimBoSox9]

MLB WAR leaders last year by age at close of season:
1. 22
2. 31
3. 23
4. 29
5. 29
6. 27
7. 31
8. 30
9. 27
10. 27

32 doesn't quite seem old yet. But it's getting there.

Looking at the tippy-top of the performance sample is exactly the wrong place to extrapolate general conclusions from. Here there be outliers.

 

[Dewy4PrezII]

Calm. The answer we were looking for is calm.

But does he have an elegant gait

 

[teddywingman]

But does he have an elegant gait

And what does he place in the gift basket?

 

[simplicio]

And what does he place in the gift basket?

The lotion?

Nice to see him getting back on track after a couple frustrating days.