A quick recap now that 2 weeks have elapsed since the All Star break, and teams have between 16 and 19 games remaining to solidify their playoff position. Numbers in parentheses are games behind conference leader in loss column, conference record, division record if in Atlantic Division, and Celtics head-to-head.
1. Miami (0, 28-13, 2-0 w/ 1 remaining): 12 of the Heat's 17 remaining games are at home, and Miami has the best home record in the conference. I'm calling the #1 seed safe for them. They may end up with a fully stocked Nets team in the first round or face a 2nd round matchup against Giannis or a Harden-retooled Sixers (less likely), but that's a battle for another day.
2. Philadelphia (2 gb, 23-15, 6-7, 2-2). They were #5 when I started this exercise. 3 games separate the Sixers and Celtics in the loss column, so while the division record tiebreaker favors Boston slightly, and Philly does have to play 3 more games than the Celtics do during these final weeks, it's a tall order for Boston to catch them.
3. Milwaukee (3 gb, 25-18, 2-1 w/ 1 remaining): In the Celtics favor, the Bucks have the 2nd most difficult schedule remaining in the Eastern Conference behind Chicago, with a difficult west coast trip and road games against Brooklyn and Philly making up 11 of their remaining 17 games. Celtics get another crack at them in Milwaukee, and have a 2 game edge in the conference record tiebreaker. In the Bucks favor, that matchup is the 2nd half of a B2B road game for Boston, with the Bulls the night before, and the Celtics have the 3rd toughest schedule remaining in the conference, and the Bucks are more likely to win their division than the Celtics.
4. Chicago (3 gb, 24-16, 1-1 w/ 1 remaining): Have fallen a couple of spots. They have the toughest schedule in the conference going forward, with 11 of 18 on the road, and their record against the good teams is poor. That April 6th game in Chicago looms large for Boston's chances.
5. Boston (5 gb, 28-16, 9-6): As noted, Boston has the 3rd most difficult schedule in the conference, with an important west coast trip and a 3 potentially huge road games to end the season in Chicago, Milwaukee and Memphis. I'm going to book them as a 4 seed for now, as I think the Bulls are vulnerable.
6. Cleveland (5 gb, 22-16, 2-1): How the mighty have fallen, as the predicted market correction seems to be underway. While Tankathon estimates their remaining schedule somewhat favorably as compared to the Bucks, Bulls, and Celtics, some of that is due to their games against the Pacers, Pistons, and Magic (twice). They also face the Sixers twice, as well as roadies against the Heat, Bulls, Nets, and Raptors.
7. Toronto (8 gb, 23-19, 7-5, 2-1 w/ 1 remaining): It's now at the point where the Raptors need teams above them to slip to avoid the play-in, especially after their loss to Cleveland. And they have a brutal stretch coming up with a 5 game road trip out west before coming home for a game against the Fakers before traveling to Philly and Chicago. Still, that 3/28 game in Toronto bears watching.
8. Charlotte (11 gb, 21-20, 1-1 w/ 1 remaining). Technically, they now hold the 8th seed due to the fact that they beat the Nets in their only matchup so far this season. The teams 2 have 2 matchups remaining, so the Hornets could have an outsized impact on the makeup of the play-in round. Worth nothing that Charlotte has a relatively easy stretch right now, aside of those Nets games. Best case for them would be grabbing the 7th seed.
9. Brooklyn (11 gb, 22-18, 7-6, 2-1): As I've said before, they are probably OK with finishing with the 7th or 8th seed as long as Durant, Kyrie, and Simmons are all healthy. Gets interesting if they have to travel to Toronto for the playin, because there is zero chance the Canadian government will relax their border restrictions on unvaccinated travelers.
10. Atlanta (10 gb, 20-20, 2-2): It's the Nets problem that the Hawks are not going quietly, and that Atlanta has the easiest remaining schedule in the conference. The 4/2 matchup in Atlanta could be significant, although Brooklyn does lead the season series 2-0.
11. Washington (12 gb, 22-21, 1-2 w/ 1 remaining): Another team that is hasn't gone away, although they are about to embark on a difficult west coast swing, and without Beal really don't have the roster to catch the current playin teams.
12. New York Knicks (16 gb, 14-25, 4-9, 2-2): That opening night double overtime victory against Boston seems so long ago. While not mathematically eliminated, their chances of reaching the playin are minuscule at this point.