I agree with you unless literally everyone else falls apart. I'd like to see the CFP keep UNC lower, this week, like max 15, if they really want to say strength of schedule means something. The CFP doesn't really follow the AP or Coaches polls; in last week's Top 10s, they only had 4 teams ranked the same as the AP and 2 with the coaches, and we all know the coaches poll is some combo of name recognition + last week's results + SID's favorite road trip + conference affiliation = ranking. CFP has been intriguingly unpredictable.
One thing I don't like about what Jeff Long has said so far is their insistence at looking at records vs. .500 or better. A team that's .500 probably has at least 2 wins vs FCS/lowerG5, especially if they only have 8 conf. games. Which means they're 2 games under .500 against teams with comparable talent or resources. That's 4-6 at the end of the season vs teams with a pulse. I don't think most wins over teams like that are all that meaningful. I wish they'd focus on wins vs top 25 or 40.