Montana Fan said:
I guess the theory is he could throw a hissy fit otherwise no there is no reason Allen Craig is in the majors
Next man up, err I mean Down: Craig
- Thread starter In my lifetime
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I guess the theory is he could throw a hissy fit otherwise no there is no reason Allen Craig is in the majors
I believe Craig would need to clear optional waivers???
Not that it would be the end of the world if that happened, but with Castillo just about to return from injury, I can see why they would want to wait. Another week with Craig in the lineup will not kill them.
Not that it would be the end of the world if that happened, but with Castillo just about to return from injury, I can see why they would want to wait. Another week with Craig in the lineup will not kill them.
lexrageorge said:
I mean the Red Sox couls pull him back if he was claimed though would they at this point?
Doctor G said:
I'm curious about your reasoning on this. Castillo has done nothing but hit and has a major league contract. JBJ, has failed spectacularly and clearly needs more than a month of seasoning in AAA to prove that he's ready for another shot.
I think he just needs some ABs, at least to make a real judgement call on him. Living in St. Louis I've seen a lot of the good Allen Craig. Last year he was obviously physically not right. This year he looks far more physically capable. He just looks lost at the plate. Regular ABs is exactly what I think he needs and ideally against somewhat weaker competition he can really pummel to find the difference between a guy who can hit .280/.330/.430 against AAA pitching and the guy who can hit .330/.380/.540 against AAA pitching.Rudy Pemberton said:
JBJ got to burn a whole year of team control and an option for horrid production last year. I'd say he's low man on that totem pole this season until he's shown himself back on track for several months, not just a few weeks.Doctor G said:
Exactly. If anyone would claim him it gives the Sox a financial out. Playing every day in AAA is what Craig needs to find his swing again, if he can't do it there he certainly isn't going to do it with ~200 ABs from the ML bench. They need to think about Allen Craig as a 2016 asset, not a 2015 contributor. If someone will clear the debt and assume in exchange for that asset I would view it as net neutral (a risk/reward equation losing both the risk and the reward).TomRicardo said:
Otherwise talk to the guy, get him down to AAA where he can regroup, and get Castillo up.
Drek717 said:
I haven't really heard much about Craig's mindset right now, but I've got to think he knows he's running out of chances. I think all the team really needs is someone else who plays RF (other than Holt, who I don't think anyone sees as a starting RF for whatever reason) to start getting hot in order to sell the move to Craig and the rest of the team. Whether that's Castillo, Nava, or whatever. With Victorino out, this is Craig's shot, and if he can't at least string together a few multi-hit games, it'll be interesting to see what happens when/if Victorino might be ready to come back or someone else steps up.
I would love to see Castillo get back and really run with the job, since he seems like he can be an electric player, but until he starts pounding on the door, this is probably Craig's time to show what he's got, if anything.
moondog80 said:
Oh, totally. Craig looks like toast that's been toasted, torn up, fed to seagulls, and excreted onto a new Mercedes parked under a streetlamp at Sullivan Square. Granted, I haven't watched every game, but I'm not sure I've seen him hit more than a ball or two out of the infield this year. Maybe he's having great batting practices or something? I just think (hope) that's what he's going to have to do in order to keep getting playing time. If he keeps going at this rate, I can't imagine he'll be around much longer.
foulkehampshire said:
Definitely. JBJ is a superb defensive OF - Castillo is projected to be an above-average OF. JBJ has not shown he can hit major league pitching - Castillo has (although SSS).
JBJ had his shot (for now). When Rusney is ready - bring him up and stick him in RF (assuming there is not a healthy Victorino, which is another factor).
Craig's really not a right fielder in Fenway by any stretch of the imagination. Nava vs a RHP is the better option at 1b (or LF and probably RF too). The way Craig gets PT is as Nava's caddy against LHP or if Holt has to sub for someone in the IF. There's not really a role for him.moondog80 said:
who do you DFA him for who would make a difference? another bullpen arm? brentz? i'm not sure there's a reason to give him up for nothing right now because i don't think there's anyone forcing the issue at AAAmoondog80 said:
O Captain! My Captain! said:
He's not a good fielder or baserunner, and his bat is so bad they they only want to play him against lefties, and even then they're probably not confident. Yes, I think Brentz or JBJ have more value than him. You say you want those guys to get consistent AB in Pawtucket? Fine, Quintin Berry, he can at least pinch run and cover ground in the OF. There are dozens of other cheaply availabe guys who can at least do something to help. What are they hoping for from Craig at this point?
Brentz is basically a year away from being a AAAA guy. Maybe he comes up, gets hot and has some trade value by the time Castillo is available. I don't think there is much doubt he would be better than Craig (who has now been worth -2 WAR between last year and this). I would prefer JBJ though to help with the run prevention.
In today's game thread I asked about Craig vs. Nava (it's not Craig vs. no Craig). Once Castillo comes up - the decision has to be made to dump Nava/Craig or Victorino.
Nava's left handed. That's a big plus. Let's look at some of their stats. I'm not going to include the 2014 Craig because he was obviously injured (really - not trying to skew things). Neither player has gotten regular at bats this year.
Nava: 32 years old. Career: vs. LHP .209 vs. RHP .288
Craig: 30 years old. Career: vs. LHP .281 vs. RHP .278
Nava 2010: 161 ab's .242/.351/.360 ($400K)
Craig 2010: 114 ab's .246/.298/.412 ($400K)
Craig 2011: 200 ab's .315/.362/.555 ($400K)
Nava 2012: 267 ab's .243/.352/.390 ($400K)
Craig 2012: 469 ab's .307/.354/502 ($500K)
Nava 2013: 458 ab's .303/.385/.445 ($500k)
Craig 2013: 508 ab's .315/.373/.457 ($1.75M)
Nava 2014: 363 ab's .270/.346/.361 ($600K)
Craig 2014: ($2.75M)
Nava 2015: 39 ab's .154/.209/.179 ($1.85M)
Craig 2015: 34 ab's .118/.189/.118 ($5.5M)
Craig 2016: ($9.00M)
Craig 2017: ($11M)
Craig 2018: ($13M)
Craig is 2 years younger than Nava and has a better hitting record. His career splits against RHP are similar to Nava's and much better against LHP. Craig has consistently shown more power than Nava (excluding 2014).
Nava is signed through this year @ only $1.85M.
Craig is signed through 2018 @ $38.5M
On the face of it (I hope those more skilled than I go deeper), Craig has established himself as a better career hitter than Nava. Still, is 2014 an outlier - or does it forecast the future of Craig?
Craig and Nava fulfill identical functions but Nava is much cheaper. Craig has established an ability to hit given consistent at bats, if healthy. I think it's hard to judge any hitter who only plays sporadically unless you have the ability to scout his swing and approach against good Major League pitchers.
Keeping Craig leaves the option of trading him for value (if another team believes in him) at a reasonable salary, or keeping him (and dumping both Nava and Victorino) with the hope old Craig reappears.
I lean towards Craig in the Nava vs. Craig argument, but we should discuss this. I don't know what to say about Craig vs. Victorino.
Nava's left handed. That's a big plus. Let's look at some of their stats. I'm not going to include the 2014 Craig because he was obviously injured (really - not trying to skew things). Neither player has gotten regular at bats this year.
Nava: 32 years old. Career: vs. LHP .209 vs. RHP .288
Craig: 30 years old. Career: vs. LHP .281 vs. RHP .278
Nava 2010: 161 ab's .242/.351/.360 ($400K)
Craig 2010: 114 ab's .246/.298/.412 ($400K)
Craig 2011: 200 ab's .315/.362/.555 ($400K)
Nava 2012: 267 ab's .243/.352/.390 ($400K)
Craig 2012: 469 ab's .307/.354/502 ($500K)
Nava 2013: 458 ab's .303/.385/.445 ($500k)
Craig 2013: 508 ab's .315/.373/.457 ($1.75M)
Nava 2014: 363 ab's .270/.346/.361 ($600K)
Craig 2014: ($2.75M)
Nava 2015: 39 ab's .154/.209/.179 ($1.85M)
Craig 2015: 34 ab's .118/.189/.118 ($5.5M)
Craig 2016: ($9.00M)
Craig 2017: ($11M)
Craig 2018: ($13M)
Craig is 2 years younger than Nava and has a better hitting record. His career splits against RHP are similar to Nava's and much better against LHP. Craig has consistently shown more power than Nava (excluding 2014).
Nava is signed through this year @ only $1.85M.
Craig is signed through 2018 @ $38.5M
On the face of it (I hope those more skilled than I go deeper), Craig has established himself as a better career hitter than Nava. Still, is 2014 an outlier - or does it forecast the future of Craig?
Craig and Nava fulfill identical functions but Nava is much cheaper. Craig has established an ability to hit given consistent at bats, if healthy. I think it's hard to judge any hitter who only plays sporadically unless you have the ability to scout his swing and approach against good Major League pitchers.
Keeping Craig leaves the option of trading him for value (if another team believes in him) at a reasonable salary, or keeping him (and dumping both Nava and Victorino) with the hope old Craig reappears.
I lean towards Craig in the Nava vs. Craig argument, but we should discuss this. I don't know what to say about Craig vs. Victorino.
I think it is more a matter of what the RS can get in return for each of them and how much salary they have to eat.
Victorino - advantage less than 1 year left on his curgent 3 yr/39 deal. So he is most certainly gone after this year. Unfortunately, with his injuries and poor hitting to start the year his value is currently about -10 million.
Nava - advantage is that he is on a reasonable 1 yr deal of 1.85. Disadvantage is that his ceiling is that of a 5th outfielder. His low salary presumably assures that he has at least minimal value in the trade market, but I wouldn't expect much.
Craig - advantage is that within the last 2 years he has shown to be a good hitter. Disadvantage - That over the last year and a half he has been unable to hit at all. In addition, he was signed on the basis of that potential from 2 years ago. After this year he is owed 3 years and 33 million dollars.
The RS were hoping that between spring training and the beginning of the season that one of the 3 would prove to be a useful part of the team and 2 would establish some positive trade value. This obviously has not happened in even 1 case. Instead Holt has proven he can fill the position of 5th outfielder, Castillo will be ready within 2 weeks so least landing spots are needed.
Right now any value for the lack of production resides in the smallest contract. So Nava can be moved for at most a lottery ticket minor league player. I am sure they would be thrilled to move Victorino and Craig, it is just how much of their salary they have to eat. My guess is that they will hold onto Craig and pray he is able to hit again. I can't imagine a team currently taking him and his contract without the RS throwing in 20 million. Victorino is only a 1 year commitment and he either gets healthy and serves as more than an acceptable albeit expensive 4th outfielder or he spends half the time on the DL.
In the likely situation the RS can't find a trade partner, either Craig or Nava will need to be sent to Pawtucket. To me it seems like Craig could potentially benefit more as he would get to play every day and work on rediscovering his stroke.
OF
Ramirez
Betts
Soon to be Castillo
Back ups
Victorino with expectant times on the DL
Nava
Holt
AAA
Craig - called back up when Victorino or someone is out or if he figures out how to hit.
Victorino - advantage less than 1 year left on his curgent 3 yr/39 deal. So he is most certainly gone after this year. Unfortunately, with his injuries and poor hitting to start the year his value is currently about -10 million.
Nava - advantage is that he is on a reasonable 1 yr deal of 1.85. Disadvantage is that his ceiling is that of a 5th outfielder. His low salary presumably assures that he has at least minimal value in the trade market, but I wouldn't expect much.
Craig - advantage is that within the last 2 years he has shown to be a good hitter. Disadvantage - That over the last year and a half he has been unable to hit at all. In addition, he was signed on the basis of that potential from 2 years ago. After this year he is owed 3 years and 33 million dollars.
The RS were hoping that between spring training and the beginning of the season that one of the 3 would prove to be a useful part of the team and 2 would establish some positive trade value. This obviously has not happened in even 1 case. Instead Holt has proven he can fill the position of 5th outfielder, Castillo will be ready within 2 weeks so least landing spots are needed.
Right now any value for the lack of production resides in the smallest contract. So Nava can be moved for at most a lottery ticket minor league player. I am sure they would be thrilled to move Victorino and Craig, it is just how much of their salary they have to eat. My guess is that they will hold onto Craig and pray he is able to hit again. I can't imagine a team currently taking him and his contract without the RS throwing in 20 million. Victorino is only a 1 year commitment and he either gets healthy and serves as more than an acceptable albeit expensive 4th outfielder or he spends half the time on the DL.
In the likely situation the RS can't find a trade partner, either Craig or Nava will need to be sent to Pawtucket. To me it seems like Craig could potentially benefit more as he would get to play every day and work on rediscovering his stroke.
OF
Ramirez
Betts
Soon to be Castillo
Back ups
Victorino with expectant times on the DL
Nava
Holt
AAA
Craig - called back up when Victorino or someone is out or if he figures out how to hit.
Nava's left-handness is a better fit for the team. He's a better fielder. And most importantly, there's a very good chance that Craig isn't the same guy who put up those numbers 2011-2013 (and even then, his career OPS+ is only slightly better than Nava's, 112 to 106). I can't believe this is even a question.
Is it confirmed that Craig can be sent down? If so, it's even more mind-boggling that he's still here. Anybody could fill his role on the team in Boston, and if there's any hope at all for Craig, isn't it better for him to get regular AB in Pawtucket?
Is it confirmed that Craig can be sent down? If so, it's even more mind-boggling that he's still here. Anybody could fill his role on the team in Boston, and if there's any hope at all for Craig, isn't it better for him to get regular AB in Pawtucket?
moondog80 said:
I agree. I'm not sure what good it is for him to go 0-4 every three days and then ground out once in a while in his occasional pinch hitting opportunities. I imagine the Craig situation is going to be sorted out in the next week or two depending on what's happening with Castillo and Victorino. Even then, they could just call JBJ back up in a week if he keeps playing well. Especially for a team that emphasizes defense, he now seems like an odd fit compared to the alternatives.
Puffy said:
I suspect what happened is that in ST, Craig was informed of his bench status, and they "agreed" (not that he has a choice) to see how it plays out in a secondary role. At this stage, he hasn't exactly shown himself to be a solid bench player (I know, chicken/egg Catch-22, etc). He hasn't hit in his sporadic chances. Hanley is killing it. Craig can't/shouldn't play RF at Fenway. So a month in, here they are. Craig is neither blind nor stupid. Maybe he's asked to be released and the Sox said no. The first MLB waiver period expires on Day 30 of the season. The next one begins the 31st day through July 31. Maybe they put him out there to see if there's any interest?
There has been no public griping, which suggests to me that the relationship is reasonably solid and both sides are trying to make it work. Maybe that will include a trip to AAA to recapture his past or build his value. I think his veterann-ness gets overplayed a bit. He *is* 30 y/o, but he's also only had 2.5 successful MLB seasons, followed by one (perhaps injury-related) really crappy one. I'm not sure that gives him unlimited "dont ship the vet to AAA" cred.
While JBJ, for his defense alone, offers more to the Sox *right now* than Craig, I think the Sox see more value in JBJ raking at AAA -- either for trade or learning purposes -- than playing late-inning defense in Boston.
Ultimately, I agree that the Sox' hand will be forced by the health & success of Victorino and Castillo and how they view their starting pitching at whatever point they deem the sample size to be sufficient.
5th OFs are marginal guys like Reed Johnson or Peter Bourjos. Nava has been a two win player as a semi regular in the recent past. He's been awful in his 40 PA but his leash should be longer, and it isn't close between him and Craig ability wise.In my lifetime said:
Didn't we go through this last year with Nava? Maybe he's just a slow starter?
To me, it is the emergence of Brock Holt that makes Nava a little redundant, and the question of what to do with the person who has taken over Allen Craig's body is entirely separate.
To me, it is the emergence of Brock Holt that makes Nava a little redundant, and the question of what to do with the person who has taken over Allen Craig's body is entirely separate.
Many people keep saying that Nava is a much better player than Craig. Where is that reflected in historical stats? The way I interpret it, healthy Craig has always been better than Nava and the RHP splits are very close. When was Nava better than Craig?
If Craig is now toast, that's a different argument, but also one that should be backed up.
One of the three must go when Castillo comes up.
edit: And only one of the three is under Red Sox control for the future. Which (obviously) is irrelevant if he sucks.
If Craig is now toast, that's a different argument, but also one that should be backed up.
One of the three must go when Castillo comes up.
edit: And only one of the three is under Red Sox control for the future. Which (obviously) is irrelevant if he sucks.
He's hit worse than many pitchers for almost 200 plate appearances now. How many more are you willing to sacrifice to find out for sure that he isn't better than Nava anymore?geoduck no quahog said:
Plympton91 said:
Right. Has last month with STL he was 124/217/181 over 54 PA, very similar to what he's done here, so the suck started before Boston. Add that to his Boston totals and you get 198 PA of 124/217/181. He has zero business on this team. If you don't want to disturb Brentz or Bradley (understandable), then just DFA him, sit back while nobody claims him, send him to Pawtucket, and add Berry (or whoever) to the 40 man and call him up. Until then, we may as well have a 24 man roster.
moondog80 said:
All I'm looking for is a fair comparison of the two players.
Allen Craig sustained the Lisfranc injury on 4 September 2013. If you want to compare an injured Craig to a healthy Nava - go right ahead. The sentiment for Nava (which I absolutely appreciate) should be based on Nava's performance and projections. Neither player is getting enough regular at bats to get into a groove, but when Craig was healthy and in a regular lineup, he performed well - better than Nava.
The more relevant question is: do you put your money on Craig regaining his talent, particularly 2016 forward...or do you take the cheaper option of sticking with a less expensive Nava and having no future commitment. I think it's fair to say that neither will probably knock our socks off in 2015.
Another way to look at it is, which player would you rather not see a competitor get in June?
These are all valid questions and the answers should be based on as much fact as we can muster.
You've hit upon the explanation for why he might not suck; 2014 was injury related and this year is a SSS coincidence. But, sending him to Pawtucket means no risk that he comes back to bite us, and it also gives him a better chance to turn it around, compared to 5 AB a week with Boston.geoduck no quahog said:
You were given a comparison of Allen Craig to a pitcher over his past 200 at bats. Then you totally ignored that fact and repeated your call for facts. This is an unproductive way to carry on a conversation.geoduck no quahog said:
Except we are on the hook for the $21m guaranteed remaining on his contract (plus whatever is left of the $5.5m he's owed this year) if we can't trade him or give him away, neither of which seem likely. So, you're providing a false choice here because barring a miracle you're going to have to pay Craig anyway.geoduck no quahog said:
The question should be who is the better player right now -- if it's Nava, you send Craig down and hope he regains form. If someone claims Craig, then great, they take his salary. If he figures it out, then great, you find a way to call him back up and then either give him AB to help the team or deal him. If neither happens, he's at least not hurting the MLB team. Then if the value of a 40-man slot becomes more valuable to the team than the remaining salary he's owed, you can DFA him and pay him to go away.
Nava was 4 WAR better than Craig last year which is the difference between a below average regular and an All-Star.
Craig has been a career wRC+115 vs Nava's wRC+108. They are both meh fielders who can play the same positions. Nava has a bit of an edge. Craig is an awful base-runner too.
He has been -4.6, -6.1, -6.9 base-running runs below average the past three years which is 8th worst in MLB. Injury or not, he was terrible in 2012 as well. Nava has been +3 over that time despite his average to below average speed, as he has good instincts and doesn't run into many outs.
Craig's ISO has gone down from .240 to .215 to .142. Nava has held steady from .118 to .138 to .146 to .142.
I'd rather go with the known quanity, because Craig really is just a good right handed platoon guy if he regains his form. It's not enough to supplant anyone in the field or DH. It's like waiting for Billy Butler to come around.
Craig has been a career wRC+115 vs Nava's wRC+108. They are both meh fielders who can play the same positions. Nava has a bit of an edge. Craig is an awful base-runner too.
He has been -4.6, -6.1, -6.9 base-running runs below average the past three years which is 8th worst in MLB. Injury or not, he was terrible in 2012 as well. Nava has been +3 over that time despite his average to below average speed, as he has good instincts and doesn't run into many outs.
Craig's ISO has gone down from .240 to .215 to .142. Nava has held steady from .118 to .138 to .146 to .142.
I'd rather go with the known quanity, because Craig really is just a good right handed platoon guy if he regains his form. It's not enough to supplant anyone in the field or DH. It's like waiting for Billy Butler to come around.
I was just reading Fangraphs definition of K rate, and the site mentions that it doesn't take much more than 60 PA before the numbers start to become meaningful.
Tonight Craig reached his 59th PA, and has struck out 17 times for a 29% K rate. FG classifies a K% of 27.5% or higher as "awful."
Tonight Craig reached his 59th PA, and has struck out 17 times for a 29% K rate. FG classifies a K% of 27.5% or higher as "awful."
You have to wonder if they got a false impression of how easily a guy can keep his swing off the bench from Mike Carp's tremendous 2013 where he'd sit a week then rake for two at bats then sit another week and instantly rake again. In hindsight, Craig should have been at Pawtucket this whole time trying to recapture his 2011-2013 swing.
joe dokes said:
I doubt it. My guess is that they looked at him moving around better in spring and thought it would translate to better performance and since it hasn't, they're trying to resuscitate his value. I wish they'd done it earlier, like, before opening day, but veterans blah blah blah.
It's going to be interesting to see what happens when Castillo is ready.
joe dokes said:
I don't think Allen Craig has earned that kind of deference, especially since they didn't need his permission to send him down. He wasn't that good with St Louis, and it was only for about two seasons in total. He was sort of a rich man's Daniel Nava in terms of production, and the Sox didn't hesitate to send him down last year. For better or worse, they made what they thought was the best decision for the club, and didn't worry about his feelings.
What's most annoying about this is it's something that should have been done prior to Opening Day. Craig was never going to get regular ABs with Boston unless they had multiple injuries to other OFs.
Basically it was a cascading effect of naming Victorino the starter - leading to the demotion of Castillo (which sort of makes sense as you want him to get regular playing time) - leading to Craig as the 5th OF.
IMO the correct thing to do was to make Castillo the starting RF, with Vic as the 4th OF and Craig in Pawtucket to rebuild his value.
Hopefully Craig can spend a couple of months in Pawtucket rebuilding his vanished baseball skillset.
Basically it was a cascading effect of naming Victorino the starter - leading to the demotion of Castillo (which sort of makes sense as you want him to get regular playing time) - leading to Craig as the 5th OF.
IMO the correct thing to do was to make Castillo the starting RF, with Vic as the 4th OF and Craig in Pawtucket to rebuild his value.
Hopefully Craig can spend a couple of months in Pawtucket rebuilding his vanished baseball skillset.
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Some of us were saying this all off season. It's somewhat concerning that Farrell and Cherington either weren't able or willing to recognize it.
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