NFC Championship: Cardinals vs. Panthers

luckiestman

luckiestman

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Why do people dislike Cam Newton? The guy is clearly a fantastic athlete and while he isn't perfect, he is a damn good QB. Does the dancing really bum people out that much?
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Don't know, I like him when he does media but when I watch him in a game I don't care about, I find myself going against him. I like Rodgers even less. I really hate manning though, so I'll take Cam in the SB
 
P'tucket rhymes with...

P'tucket rhymes with...

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DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
Why do people dislike Cam Newton? The guy is clearly a fantastic athlete and while he isn't perfect, he is a damn good QB. Does the dancing really bum people out that much?
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His father was a pain in the ass, and he didn't play the faux-humble "just glad to be here" act coming out of college. For a black guy in contemporary America, that's more than enough.

I say this as someone who thought he was all hat, no cattle coming out of school. He's adapted very, very well to the pro game, is likable, and looks to be around for a good long time.
 
Dehere

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Carolina's playbook seems so deep and varied. They have so much misdirection.
 
RG33

RG33

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I am offiicially on the Panthers bandwagon, am wearing my Cam Newton jersey as I type this, and want them to fucking destroy the douchey Broncos.
 
Dehere

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I'm guessing CAR -5.5.

Most fans didn't see much of AZ this year. They see a team that was lucky to beat GB at home and then got their asses kicked in the champ game. Think the public will undervalue this win - as they've undervalued CAR all year - and overvalue Peyton Manning.
 
dcmissle

dcmissle

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There will be stupid sentimental money on Peyton. There will be money overly impressed by Denver's performance today. And there will be money because Carolina has not been there before.

Could be an opportunity; line may not be as big as it should be.

And for this young team losing to Atlanta when and in the manner it did was probably exactly what Carolina needed.
 
bigsid05

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"Any given sunday", Peyton, dominant D line, etc.

I'd take Carolina but we've seen Denver's formula work before.
 
Three10toLeft

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I hope Denver gets crushed.

But this isn't going to be the blowout we're all hoping it to be. Wade Phillips was able to throw TB off his game pretty well in the first half by mixing up his coverage. Granted a lot of that had to with the Broncos pass rush and talent up front.

The point still stands that I'm sure Wade can cook something up in two weeks that will throw Cam Newton off his game just enough. Whether that's enough to overcome Cam's physical gifts is the uncertain part.
 
SemperFidelisSox

SemperFidelisSox

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Talib did a decent job on Gronk so he can cover Olsen. Von Miller and Ware on the edges to contain Netwon. Harris on Ginn. Panthers don't have the same receiver threats Pats do. Keep Newton in the pocket.
 
Dehere

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If Arizona scores here, Carolina's propensity for letting teams back into games will be a fascinating element in the SB betting.
 
staz

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dcmissle said:
There will be stupid sentimental money on Peyton. There will be money overly impressed by Denver's performance today. And there will be money because Carolina has not been there before. Could be an opportunity; line may not be as big as it should be.
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This is required reading for you, sir:

BannedbyNYYFans.com said:
An ex-girlfriend of mine had an uncle who worked in the back offices at Caesars Sportsbook and we had a conversation about this once. Here is what he told me...

1. The idea that the media knows exactly how much is being bet on one before the game is a pretty far off. Books will often release the numbers beforehand as a way to encourage more action one way or the other. And those numbers aren't totally accurate. For instance, if you hear "80% is being bet on NE" on Friday, quite often it's 76% and that was just the action up until Wednesday...the money have have actually moved a little the other way at some point and the public isn't totally aware yet.

2. Even if 80% of the money is going to NE at -3, that's not the whole story. People have been making different wagers all year that will be determined by this game. There is often big money placed future bets, such as "The Broncos to win the SB (or AFC Championship) at 8 to 1". Those payouts might be much less compared to "The Patriots to win the SB at 3 to 1" because a huge number of people took NE to win it all back in the preseason. And we don't know how many bets were on the money line either, which has much different odds. His point was there is more to the payouts than just the winner and the spread. It's not a huge factor but casinos know it and keep it in mind when determining their risk.

3. Sportsbooks can get burned by shifting the line. For example, $10M gets bet on NE at -3 on Monday and the books feel its too much action that way (especially if it's the sharps money), so they move it to -4 on Tuesday...money keeps coming in on NE so they push it to -4.5. That forces a lot of action on Denver. That's good, right? Not if the Pats win by 4. That is their nightmare scenario and it happened in SB XIII. The line opened at Pitt -3.5 and all the early money went there. It moved to -4 for a short time and then to -4.5 by kickoff. Nearly all the late money came in on Dallas. The Steelers won 35-31 and it's still referred to as "Black Sunday" in Vegas.

4. Lastly, as many argue, sportsbooks do like to have a 50/50 split because the can't lose. But sometimes they actually don't mind "rolling the dice" like a normal fan. As a few posters pointed out, the casinos are making a fortune either way that day from alcohol/food sales, normal table betting, etc. They love the total volume of the action. And when the only big betting games that day are the SB or two conference games, it's almost impossible to make the numbers 50/50 because there are only a limited number of point spreads to shift around. In the end, they look at the risk as being part of the business and may feel Denver at -3 is truly the most accurate spread. And remember, even if NE covers, they're still getting the vig from the losing money and like I stated in numbers 1 and 2, the number they actually pay out may not be nearly as high as reported after calculating all the betting scenarios.

This is what he told me and it makes sense. But he was kind of a psychopath too, so....

Edit - Spelling
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T&A
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SemperFidelisSox said:
Talib did a decent job on Gronk so he can cover Olsen. Von Miller and Ware on the edges to contain Netwon. Harris on Ginn. Panthers don't have the same receiver threats Pats do. Keep Newton in the pocket.
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Why do you think Ware and Miller would be able to do that? Especially Miller. Sure it makes sense on paper but being stout on the edge isn't a strength of millers game and great CBs don't matter if the pass rush is flying off the edge.
 
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