Not Being a Joker, We Need A The Finals Thread

InstaFace

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That's why we have the regular season to give us a better gauge of a team's ability. Based on that metric, Miami was literally a slightly better than average team. They definitely overachieved this postseason.
That metric strikes me as frequently devoid of some important context (around injuries, trades, etc), as the 2nd Half Lakers would be happy to tell you.

I'm a little less sure that the Heat are an exception. They did have good defense all season, but didn't have huge injury gaps (Oladipo of course hurt himself in the playoffs). But everyone here "knew" they were better than their record, and I think there's probably something to that.
 

reggiecleveland

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On Jimmy Bailout's defense, he almost never bitches at the ref even when he isn't getting calls. Tatum really really really REALLY REALLY needs to stop bitching to refs and showing them up.
I just am quoting the truth here. Also Tatum lets the calls effect him, and his effort on the next possessions.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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That metric strikes me as frequently devoid of some important context (around injuries, trades, etc), as the 2nd Half Lakers would be happy to tell you.

I'm a little less sure that the Heat are an exception. They did have good defense all season, but didn't have huge injury gaps (Oladipo of course hurt himself in the playoffs). But everyone here "knew" they were better than their record, and I think there's probably something to that.
We have collectively watched a lot of sports together and we've seen plenty of teams get "hot" at the right time - or more accurately teams get favorable match-ups - and roll through the playoffs.

To me, that's what happened with Miami here - their regular season record and the pedigree of their players didn't matter one bit nor should it. NBA playoff game scoring doesn't reward for draft status or regular season W/L totals. That stuff is largely irrelevant once the games start.
 

BaseballJones

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We have collectively watched a lot of sports together and we've seen plenty of teams get "hot" at the right time - or more accurately teams get favorable match-ups - and roll through the playoffs.

To me, that's what happened with Miami here - their regular season record and the pedigree of their players didn't matter one bit nor should it. NBA playoff game scoring doesn't reward for draft status or regular season W/L totals. That stuff is largely irrelevant once the games start.
Yep. I mean, they have good enough players and coaching that if they got hot and played really well, they could knock off a lot of teams, and that's just what they did. Good on them. Sucks for us, but good on them.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Yep. I mean, they have good enough players and coaching that if they got hot and played really well, they could knock off a lot of teams, and that's just what they did. Good on them. Sucks for us, but good on them.
But not good enough!!! Pat Riley not winning is good for us!
 

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We have collectively watched a lot of sports together and we've seen plenty of teams get "hot" at the right time - or more accurately teams get favorable match-ups - and roll through the playoffs.

To me, that's what happened with Miami here - their regular season record and the pedigree of their players didn't matter one bit nor should it. NBA playoff game scoring doesn't reward for draft status or regular season W/L totals. That stuff is largely irrelevant once the games start.
I am pretty sure that if we dig up the stats, the favored team would be the winner the majority of the time, especially when we talk no 1 seeds vs no 8 seeds.
 

Jimbodandy

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FWIW, I think that Jimmy is one of the most narcissistic, selfish, myopic players in the league. But lucky for his team, his obsession is winning games, not touches and box score stats. Despite the heat culture bullshit, I wouldn't be surprised if Jimmy doesn't know all of his teammates' names.
 

TomRicardo

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FWIW, I think that Jimmy is one of the most narcissistic, selfish, myopic players in the league. But lucky for his team, his obsession is winning games, not touches and box score stats. Despite the heat culture bullshit, I wouldn't be surprised if Jimmy doesn't know all of his teammates' names.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I am pretty sure that if we dig up the stats, the favored team would be the winner the majority of the time, especially when we talk no 1 seeds vs no 8 seeds.
That's not in dispute though right? The issue that some folks are struggling with is one of a lower seed beating a higher one. It can and does happen - and it may not be a function of complete incompetence or failure to execute on the loser's end.

And then we get mentions of where players were drafted as if that means anything. If a player is on the floor and executing during the playoffs, the last thing anyone should consider is their pedigree. YRMV.
 

Nick Kaufman

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That's not in dispute though right? The issue that some folks are struggling with is one of a lower seed beating a higher one. It can and does happen - and it may not be a function of complete incompetence or failure to execute on the loser's end.

And then we get mentions of where players were drafted as if that means anything. If a player is on the floor and executing during the playoffs, the last thing anyone should consider is their pedigree. YRMV.
I literally replied to your contention that their " their regular season record and the pedigree of their players didn't matter one bit nor should it. NBA playoff game scoring doesn't reward for draft status or regular season W/L totals. That stuff is largely irrelevant once the games start."

Regular season records aren't irrelevant; they are a very good gauge of a team's true ability, of course they matter, that's why the higher seeds win most of the times.

We agree that lower seeds occasionally beat higher seeds, because low probability events can and do happen.

I guess the other point of contention is whether a lower seed beating a higher seed was always bound to happen or whether it's a fluke that's unlikely to be repeated many times, if we had infinite throws of the dice. I believe it's the latter.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I literally replied to your contention that their " their regular season record and the pedigree of their players didn't matter one bit nor should it. NBA playoff game scoring doesn't reward for draft status or regular season W/L totals. That stuff is largely irrelevant once the games start."

Regular season records aren't irrelevant; they are a very good gauge of a team's true ability, of course they matter, that's why the higher seeds win most of the times.

We agree that lower seeds occasionally beat higher seeds, because low probability events can and do happen.

I guess the other point of contention is whether a lower seed beating a higher seed was always bound to happen or whether it's a fluke that's unlikely to be repeated many times, if we had infinite throws of the dice. I believe it's the latter.
We can agree to disagree about the value of a team's regular season record. Veteran NBA teams will often play the regular season differently than up and coming clubs. Its a long season and some teams choose to emphasize things like health or depth development etc over maximizing wins.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Butler falls to the ground after almost any contact. It’s not the same flopping as Lowry but it’s still flopping. Just look at the calls he got at the end of game 6? Of the Cs series.. he drives at Tatum.. who backs off and jumps up.. Butler fell to the ground and somehow got a call. He does that kind of thing all the time. Usually it’s after he’s run into his man.
This feels like as good a time as any to repost these 2022-23 numbers about Jimmy Butler (I posted them a couple months back). Jimmy might be elite at getting calls, but nobody is this much MORE ELITE than every other player in the game at anything. One could make a pretty easy argument that Jimmy Butler is the most elitest elite at the elite art of creating contact that this elite league has ever seen:


He also gets overrated by the refs.

If every other statistic were equal, and Jaylen got the same % of free throw attempts as Jimmy Butler based on their field goal attempts per game, Jaylen would be averaging 32.6ppg.

That's how much Butler benefits from a favorable whistle.

Butler takes 13.9fga per game, and averages 8.6fta per game. For every field goal attempt he takes, he gets .61 free throw attempts. This number is fucking absurd. Here's why.

Jaylen takes 20.5fga per game, and averages 5.2fta per game, or for every field goal attempt, he gets .25 free throw attempts.

Giannis takes 20.4fga per game, and averages 12.2fta per game, or for every FGA, .598 free throws.

Embiid takes 20.2fga per game, and gets 11.9 fta, or .589.

Luka takes 22.1fga per game, and gets 10.7fta, or .484

Tatum takes 21.3fga per game, and gets 8.4fta, or .417

SGA takes 20.3fga and gets 10.7fta, or .527

Trae Young takes 19.3 and gets 8.6fta or .445

Jokic is at 15.0 and 6.1, or .406

Curry is at 20.2 and 5.0, or .247


I mean, these aren't guys I'm pulling out of the hat, these are your NBA leaders in getting to the foul line, and Butler just dwarfs them, especially other shooting guards like he is. He is 9th in the NBA in free throw attempts, and 53rd in the NBA in field goal attempts.

If someone wants to make the argument that Jimmy Butler is the best player, maybe in NBA history, at getting to the foul line, they'd have a legit argument, but I watch him play a lot, and IMO, he gets called differently. I'll never see it, Jaylen goes as hard to the hole and into the bodies of defenders, especially now, than Butler does, IMO, and never gets the calls Butler does.

And because Butler gets so many calls, his FG% and TS% are both much higher, because if you get fouled and miss the shot, it doesn't count as a FGA.

And yes, I know Butler doesn't take a lot of 3's, mainly because he sucks at it, but neither do the big guys on this list in reality and they are constantly banging away down low.
 

Nick Kaufman

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I can agree that veteran teams may rest players here and there and not go full throttle, but I cannot think of an example of a veteran team that did it to such an extent that it dropped to the 8th seed other than the mid nineties Rockets.

I mean the Heat won 44 games vs the Bucks 58. Is the contention that rest and battery charging cost the Heat 14 games? Now, if Oladipo had come back for the playoffs, the argument is stronger. He's a good a player whose absence could have conceivably cost the Heat a handful of games.
 

Mystic Merlin

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Butler is the kind of guy coaches and analysts love because he plays so hard and does all the tough guy, leadership stuff "I'll take the next trophy" and when he is hot he looks like a HOFer all-time great. But, as often as not he ends up hurting his team because he takes a high volume of shots. He is often on teams where his toughness and no-nonsense approach contrasts with (even by today's standards) whiny soft floppy (Embid, Lowry) teammates. Now Butler is a flopper, and complainer too but "dammit he does it while scowling so he is a real man, and we love him."
Meanwhile….

View: https://youtu.be/cJtpeJ_DbxE
 

Devizier

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Butler is in kind of in an attention sweet spot where people still don't take him entirely seriously as one of the game's elite players--so if he plays poorly or has some notable screw ups he won't be dragged the way a LeBron, Durant, Harden, or Tatum, Luka, Giannis, etc. would for coming up short. And if he plays really well people will give him all his flowers and ask "Why don't we talk about Jimmy Butler as one of the elite players in this game??"

I like Zach Lowe as much as anybody, but he just really likes the Heat, especially Bam and Butler and I wouldn't expect him to drag them. And to be fair, going as an #8 seed and making the Finals is nothing to be criticized for, really. But it's obvious that Butler isn't held to as high of a standard as the true elite players of the game--imagine how Jokic would be flayed if he played as poorly in this series as Butler did? That's the difference between Butler and the true top guys in the game.
I think Celtics fans should be familiar with this phenomenon given Paul Pierce.
 

ifmanis5

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Ratings were down. Should have fixed it for Lakers/Celtics after all.
View: https://twitter.com/THR/status/1668734770807799810

TV Ratings: NBA Finals Dip Year to Year as Denver Nuggets Clinch First Title
The five-game series averaged about 11.64 million viewers, down 6 percent from 12.4 million for the 2022 Finals. The relatively short series and the fact that the two teams are outside the biggest media markets — Denver and Miami rank 14th and 16th among NBA cities in market size — likely played a part in the declines.
 

Imbricus

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There's a narrative that the Nuggets just played better defense than the Celtics on the Heat, on three-point shooting ... but it's interesting to see what nba.com's advanced stats show.

The Heat were in four series: Bucks, Knicks, Celtics, Nuggets. In each they shot about 10 wide-open threes per game (the exception being New York, where it looks like they got about 14). These were their shooting percentages on wide-open threes (so defense basically plays no part): 38%, 58.2%, 42.3%, 37.6%.

Now, which series do those figures line up with?

Bucks, 42.3% (avg. of 4.4 makes per avg. of 10.4 attempts per game)
Knicks, 37.6% (5.3 out of 14.2)
Celtics, 58.2% (5.6 out of 9.6)
Nuggets, 38% (3.8 out of 10)

Obviously, one of those things is a big outlier. We got screwed. The Heat got fewer wide-open threes against us than in any other series, but they managed to sink a much higher percentage.

Just for kicks, the Heat vs. the Nuggets from other distances (for three-point shots; and I ignored "tightly contested" because numbers are minuscule): 2-4 ft. (17.9%), open but not wide open (40%). Against the Celtics: 2-4 ft. (24.4%), open (42.1%).

Edit: minor tweak for clarity
 
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lars10

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Well, that post was originally in the Jaylen Brown thread.
Also.. why should Jaylen have to slow down to get foul calls? In real time it’s obvious he gets as much contact or more.. if anything Jimmy going so slow makes it more obvious how much he creates the contact.
 

chilidawg

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There's a narrative that the Nuggets just played better defense than the Celtics on the Heat, on three-point shooting ... but it's interesting to see what nba.com's advanced stats show.

The Heat were in four series: Bucks, Knicks, Celtics, Nuggets. In each they shot about 10 wide-open threes per game (the exception being New York, where it looks like they got about 14). These were their shooting percentages on wide-open threes (so defense basically plays no part): 38%, 58.2%, 42.3%, 37.6%.

Now, which series do those figures line up with?

Bucks, 42.3% (avg. of 4.4 makes per avg. of 10.4 attempts per game)
Knicks, 37.6% (5.3 out of 14.2)
Celtics, 58.2% (5.6 out of 9.6)
Nuggets, 38% (3.8 out of 10)

Obviously, one of those things is a big outlier. We got screwed. The Heat got fewer wide-open threes against us than in any other series, but they managed to sink a much higher percentage.

Just for kicks, the Heat vs. the Nuggets from other distances (for three-point shots; and I ignored "tightly contested" because numbers are minuscule): 2-4 ft. (17.9%), open but not wide open (40%). Against the Celtics: 2-4 ft. (24.4%), open (42.1%).

Edit: minor tweak for clarity
I only watched the C's series and the finals, but it sure seemed to me the Heat got way more open looks against us than against the Nuggets.
 

the moops

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Also.. why should Jaylen have to slow down to get foul calls? In real time it’s obvious he gets as much contact or more.. if anything Jimmy going so slow makes it more obvious how much he creates the contact.
Because slowing down is how you create the contact. Refs don't reward you for barreling down the lane out of control
 

lars10

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Because slowing down is how you create the contact. Refs don't reward you for barreling down the lane out of control
Yeah.. ok. So what’s your excuse then for why Giannis gets so many calls?

edit: and Jimmy creates contact by jumping into his defender..he does it slowly or at speed.

he’s also very good at pump fakes.. but in the playoffs against the C’s when they weren’t reacting to those he usually would jump into the body of the defender… perhaps at times it’s a defensive foul but I think it should more often be an offensive foul.
 
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ifmanis5

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There's a narrative that the Nuggets just played better defense than the Celtics on the Heat, on three-point shooting ... but it's interesting to see what nba.com's advanced stats show.

The Heat were in four series: Bucks, Knicks, Celtics, Nuggets. In each they shot about 10 wide-open threes per game (the exception being New York, where it looks like they got about 14). These were their shooting percentages on wide-open threes (so defense basically plays no part): 38%, 58.2%, 42.3%, 37.6%.

Now, which series do those figures line up with?

Bucks, 42.3% (avg. of 4.4 makes per avg. of 10.4 attempts per game)
Knicks, 37.6% (5.3 out of 14.2)
Celtics, 58.2% (5.6 out of 9.6)
Nuggets, 38% (3.8 out of 10)

Obviously, one of those things is a big outlier. We got screwed. The Heat got fewer wide-open threes against us than in any other series, but they managed to sink a much higher percentage.

Just for kicks, the Heat vs. the Nuggets from other distances (for three-point shots; and I ignored "tightly contested" because numbers are minuscule): 2-4 ft. (17.9%), open but not wide open (40%). Against the Celtics: 2-4 ft. (24.4%), open (42.1%).

Edit: minor tweak for clarity
Thanks for posting that. It also backs up the eye test- Kobe Martin leveled way up and was nearly unguardable.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Because slowing down is how you create the contact. Refs don't reward you for barreling down the lane out of control
Body control is exactly right. Look at how the best so it....LeBron, Harden, Butler, etc etc. They contol the angle and the pace of their movement until the moment the defender is most vulnerable/out of position, then they use their body control to generate the contact and the foul. It's an art.

edit: Giannis is also exceptional at body control in timing his contact.
 

Deathofthebambino

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Yeah.. ok. So what’s your excuse then for why Giannis gets so many calls?

edit: and Jimmy creates contact by jumping into his defender..he does it slowly or at speed.

he’s also very good at pump fakes.. but in the playoffs against the C’s when they weren’t reacting to those he usually would jump into the body of the defender… perhaps at times it’s a defensive foul but I think it should more often be an offensive foul.
Jaylen isn't as good at Jimmy drawing fouls, because nobody in the history of the world is better at it than Jimmy.

Maybe someday, we can hope that Jaylen is as good as this though, because the NBA needs more of this:

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BOTGrk3ypN0
 

Deathofthebambino

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Body control is exactly right. Look at how the best so it....LeBron, Harden, Butler, etc etc. They contol the angle and the pace of their movement until the moment the defender is most vulnerable/out of position, then they use their body control to generate the contact and the foul. It's an art.

edit: Giannis is also exceptional at body control in timing his contact.
Lebron?

Lebron sucks at it, if we're comparing him to Jimmy Butler.

Jimmy for his career averages .523 free throw attempts per field goal attempt.

Lebron for his career averages .390

In 2022/23, Jimmy averaged .625
In 2022/23, Lebron averaged .265

Lebron can't hold Jimmy's jock. He's the best ever.

Harden is a lot closer though.

For his career, he's at .521 to Jimmy's .523.

But he's trending in the wrong direction too. This year, he was only .427 to Jimmy's .625.


Jimmy is just the best ever at creating angles and controlling his body. Nobody else is really close. We need more Harden's and Butler's in the game. It's fun to watch masters of their craft.

Of course, it's hard to find highlights of guys not getting foul calls, so it's really hard to put the calls they get into a side by side with the calls that others don't get, because others just aren't as good artists as they are.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Who cares about "fun" if it's effective? If/when rules change the smart players will adjust and find other ways to exploit the rules to their benefit. We just happen to have two real good players who kinda suck at it so we are at a disadvantage in this area.
 

the moops

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Yeah.. ok. So what’s your excuse then for why Giannis gets so many calls?

edit: and Jimmy creates contact by jumping into his defender..he does it slowly or at speed.

he’s also very good at pump fakes.. but in the playoffs against the C’s when they weren’t reacting to those he usually would jump into the body of the defender… perhaps at times it’s a defensive foul but I think it should more often be an offensive foul.
I am unsure why we are still comparing Jaylen to Jimmy here. They are very different players and just because one gets to line and the other doesn't does not mean that the entire NBA is rigged.
 

ManicCompression

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If every other statistic were equal, and Jaylen got the same % of free throw attempts as Jimmy Butler based on their field goal attempts per game, Jaylen would be averaging 32.6ppg.
The stat that you're waving aside is 3 point percentage. Your likelihood of getting fouled on a three pointer is less than a shot in the paint, and Butler takes a significantly smaller portion of his shots beyond the arc.

Butler - 11% of his shots are threes
Steph - 56%
Trae - 33%
Luka - 37%
Jaylen - 35%
Lebron - 31%

Those are big multiples. Of course Steph won't sniff his free throw rate, because he's 25 feet from the basket on half of his shots. This is a choice of play style, and Butler would prefer to go this route instead of shooting the three.

Big guys are also different. Refs don't notice smaller bits of contact the same way they do on wings. If it were the case, Shaq would've probably have gone to the FT line on 90% of his shot attempts. They're never going to get called the same way.
 

OurF'ingCity

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The stat that you're waving aside is 3 point percentage. Your likelihood of getting fouled on a three pointer is less than a shot in the paint, and Butler takes a significantly smaller portion of his shots beyond the arc.

Butler - 11% of his shots are threes
Steph - 56%
Trae - 33%
Luka - 37%
Jaylen - 35%
Lebron - 31%

Those are big multiples. Of course Steph won't sniff his free throw rate, because he's 25 feet from the basket on half of his shots. This is a choice of play style, and Butler would prefer to go this route instead of shooting the three.

Big guys are also different. Refs don't notice smaller bits of contact the same way they do on wings. If it were the case, Shaq would've probably have gone to the FT line on 90% of his shot attempts. They're never going to get called the same way.
Yep, this is right. Butler is kind of the ideal "foul-getter" because he (1) doesn't take a ton of threes and (2) isn't a center or particularly big such that contact will just glance off of him. Combine that with his talent at positioning his body to draw fouls (and, yes, "selling" contact as well) and it shouldn't really be a surprise he gets tons of FTAs.

I agree it's not particularly fun to watch, and if there were an easy way to change the rules to get rid of this I'd be all for it, but there really isn't - any rule or emphasis change, such as refs "swallowing their whistles" more overall, would have just as much if not more of a negative impact as it would a positive one (put another way, while I don't enjoy a game that is nothing but cheap free throws, I also don't enjoy a game where everyone is getting mugged all the time going to the rim and no one is scoring).
 

Euclis20

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Anyone who spent 15 years rooting for Paul Pierce has to appreciate what Jimmy does w/regards to getting to the free throw line. There's also a real difference between what guys like Harden and Trae Young do (often flopping when not even touched) and what guys like Pierce/Butler do (often initiating and exaggerating contact, but usually not fooling the refs into creating a foul out of absolutely nothing). I'm not sure Jaylen has the body control and footwork to ever come close to Pierce/Butler, but Tatum certainly does (and has, his FTR has taken some nice jumps over the years and he was 4th in FTM this year).
 

ManicCompression

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To extend this idea, probably the best stat to look at is FTs per 2 PT shots. Here's how that shakes out:

Butler: .70
Lebron: .40
Steph: .56
Doncic: .76
Trae: .69
Jaylen: .38
Tatum: .71
SGA: .61

So here, Butler is still elite, but he draws less fouls per shots inside the line than Doncic, Tatum, and almost the exact same as Trae.
 

lars10

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I am unsure why we are still comparing Jaylen to Jimmy here. They are very different players and just because one gets to line and the other doesn't does not mean that the entire NBA is rigged.
I didn’t say that it was rigged. You compared the speeds of Jaylen and Jimmy and made the claim that Jaylen was out of control so that’s why he doesn’t get calls.. then I brought up a player who is regularly out of control but still gets a ton of foul calls… and I guess you want to change the subject.. which is totally fine.
 
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Devizier

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Anyone who spent 15 years rooting for Paul Pierce has to appreciate what Jimmy does w/regards to getting to the free throw line.
Yes, it’s basically this. Butler is better at it, relatively speaking, although I think the rules emphasis changes have helped him. Another wing who got to the line a ton was Adrian Dantley although he was before my time.
 

InstaFace

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