Not our Star Blazer: Yamamoto signs with the Dodgers for $325 million, 12 years

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The Gray Eagle

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The Athletic article that looks at each of the teams known to be pursuing Yamamoto has some interesting tidbits:
https://theathletic.com/5153339/2023/12/20/yoshinobu-yamamoto-free-agent-yankees-dodgers/
Yankees:
Yamamoto was clear that he wants to be able to operate his own way, the way he did in Japan — from his somewhat unorthodox training methods to his style of pitching. The Yankees felt positive in their conversations with him about wearing pinstripes, which at least touched on their history of Japanese stars who enjoyed playing in the Bronx (Ichiro Suzuki, Masahiro Tanaka, Hideki Matsui, Hiroki Kuroda).
The homework the Yankees have done on Yamamoto has been extensive, from sending a scout to every one of his starts last season to general manager Brian Cashman appearing in person in Japan to watch the no-hitter Yamamoto threw Sept. 9. The team also left available his No. 18 all last season.
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Looks like they forgot to include Kei Igawa and the late Hideki Irabu in that history of Japanese Yankees.

Mets:
During the recruiting process, the Mets offered some personal touches. First, owner Steve Cohen and president of baseball operations David Stearns flew to Japan to see Yamamoto and the star pitcher’s family. More recently, Yamamoto had dinner at Cohen’s home in Connecticut, where he met Cohen’s wife, Alex, and Mets manager Carlos Mendoza and pitching coach Jeremy Hefner. In addition to his pitching prowess, the Mets like Yamamoto as a person and competitor.
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I hope Yamamoto enjoyed his dinner in New England. It's in a much nicer place to be than Queens or the Bronx. Cohen can afford to live anywhere, so no surprise he chose New England.

Dodgers:
Ohtani structured his Dodgers contract in a manner that not only made a Yamamoto pursuit feasible but also made signing him a real possibility. Ohtani was among the star-studded Dodgers contingent that met with Yamamoto at Dodger Stadium, and those in the meeting felt it went well. The Dodgers have coveted Yamamoto for years, and there wasn’t a player on the market this year — not even Ohtani — that more immediately addressed the Dodgers’ biggest need this winter: starting pitching. The Dodgers have the pedigree (Yamamoto himself grew up a Dodger fan), the resources and the desire to push themselves forward in a pursuit.
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It's very hard to predict, but I still think he will end up with the Dodgers. Even before I saw that he grew up a Dodgers fan.

Giants:
There is no overstating how much the Giants and Zaidi adore Yamamoto. He is their pattern for an ideal pitcher come to life: He suppresses damage, limits walks, possesses uncanny control of three premium pitches, and has the aptitude and youthfulness to become even better and better. The Giants also love a good splitter (Kevin Gausman, Alex Cobb) and Yamamoto might throw the best version in the world.
Although their roster needs a lot of work, the Giants have the financial flexibility to sign Yamamoto and keep adding this winter — and they’d view a Logan Webb-Yamamoto combo atop the rotation as a strength that could help them level up fast in the rigorous NL West.
The word around the Giants for months has been that if they miss out on Yamamoto, it won’t be because their offer was light.
According to those familiar with Zaidi’s thinking, he has never been so all-in on a free agent in his six years while leading the Giants’ baseball operations group.
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The Giants scenario seems to be pretty similar to the Red Sox-- they both really want and need this guy and will make huge offers for him, but at this point nobody seems to think they are the favorites.

Red Sox:
The Red Sox have been scouting Yamamoto for years as he was teammates on the Orix Buffaloes alongside Masataka Yoshida, who the Red Sox signed last winter to a five-year, $90 million deal.
The Red Sox may not have gotten a second in-person interview after the initial meeting with him in Los Angeles last week, but team sources still feel confident in their pursuit of him. There is a belief the team is willing to go outside its comfort zone for a deal with Yamamoto, but how far outside that comfort zone remains the question. Yamamoto has taken a very deliberate approach in researching teams he’s interested in and the Red Sox may offer some enticing intangibles.
In addition to playing alongside his good friend Yoshida, the Red Sox have three Japanese-speaking members of their training staff. Yamamoto’s mobility routine is a key aspect of his training regimen and while it’s a small detail, it could go a long way. However, money talks and the Red Sox have been quiet of late. If they’ve been holding out for anyone, Yamamoto is the one on which to splurge.
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The wording in the bolded is confusing-- they may not have had a second interview (as in we don't know if they did or not?) or they did not, but they still feel confident? Seems like if they didn't get a second interview and don't get one in the next few days, then he's not coming. But no one seems to know for sure if they have already had a second interview or if they have one coming up.

Phillies:
The Phillies making it this far in the process is something of a surprise, although it’s unclear how strong their odds are of actually signing Yamamoto. President of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has said numerous times his five-man rotation is set; the Phillies signed Aaron Nola for $172 million earlier this offseason. The Phillies will have the club’s highest payroll ever in 2024 and, at various times this offseason, Dombrowski has cautioned against the idea that they could add another star player.
And, still, the Phillies have made an offer to Yamamoto.
They have been interested in him for months. They have increased their scouting presence in Japan over the last two years. But they have never signed a player to a major-league contract directly from Japan. They have not had a Japanese player on their roster since 2009 and, if “fit” is important to Yamamoto, that will be a consideration. Yamamoto did not visit Philadelphia this month as he conducted meetings with teams. The Phillies, throughout this process, have not been quite sure if their interest in Yamamoto was reciprocated. They likely will not be the highest bidders. All of that is working against them in this free-agent pursuit. But Dombrowski has a track record of landing stars and unwavering support from ownership, so the Phillies’ presence is at least notable at this stage.
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So they don't have any need for him, and he would blow up their budget, they aren't sure he is interested in them at all, and they will not likely be the highest bidders.
Okay then.

Blue Jays:
The Blue Jays don’t need a frontline starter like some other teams on this list do. They have a full rotation with an ace in Kevin Gausman, though obviously, Alek Manoah carries question marks after his disappointing 2023. Realistically, this club needs bats — and impactful ones. But if the Blue Jays are making a play for Yamamoto, it’s because the front office is keen to make a splash this offseason and is running out of ways to do so after missing out on Ohtani and Juan Soto.
Acquiring Yamamoto doesn’t fill the holes in their lineup, but adding him to their already strong rotation could open up avenues to trade from their starting depth to acquire those impact bats. Toronto isn’t the favourite to sign Yamamoto, and, arguably, their resources might be better used elsewhere. Still, the Blue Jays need to make a statement this offseason and this would qualify as one.
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This doesn't sound like a team that is going to outbid everyone in the universe for this guy. Sounds like they will make him a big offer and let everyone know they did, but won't end up with him.
 
mikcou

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The Gray Eagle said:
The Athletic article that looks at each of the teams known to be pursuing Yamamoto has some interesting tidbits:
https://theathletic.com/5153339/2023/12/20/yoshinobu-yamamoto-free-agent-yankees-dodgers/


Red Sox:


The wording in the bolded is confusing-- they may not have had a second interview (as in we don't know if they did or not?) or they did not, but they still feel confident? Seems like if they didn't get a second interview and don't get one in the next few days, then he's not coming. But no one seems to know for sure if they have already had a second interview or if they have one coming up.
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The wording is "may not have gotten." That is generally used for something that is ideal (if not necessary), but has not yet occurred and may never. In context, the reporter is saying that Sox are confident they are still involved even though that second meeting has not occurred.
 
moondog80

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BornToRun said:
you can’t say that with any kind of certainty just yet and you know it. Xander is one year into a deal that stretches just past a decade and he isn’t young.
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It also doesn't matter. The Story deal could be the worst contract of all time, that wouldn't make the Xander deal a smart signing.
 
TomRicardo

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BornToRun said:
you can’t say that with any kind of certainty just yet and you know it. Xander is one year into a deal that stretches just past a decade and he isn’t young.
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Trevor Story's contract already is about -25.5 million in value. Xander Bogaerts is +10 million in value. Bogaerts already has a year and half banked against Story. Bogaerts projects to be twice as valuable as Story if both are healthy for the next four years meaning an extra 45-55 million in value. Xander would need to stop playing after 2028 for Story to have a chance to catch him in contract value.
 
E5 Yaz

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C'mon guys, save the Story contract debate for the Why Didn't They Sign Jordan Montgomery? thread
 
DJnVa

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The Gray Eagle said:
There is no overstating how much the Giants and Zaidi adore Yamamoto. He is their pattern for an ideal pitcher come to life: He suppresses damage, limits walks, possesses uncanny control of three premium pitches, and has the aptitude and youthfulness to become even better and better.
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That describes every single baseball team's ideal pattern for a pitcher. Every one.
 
Petagine in a Bottle

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Not that I’d want his contract, but X was worth 4.4 fWAR last year; Story is at 2.6 with the Sox so far. Sox barely had one player worth 3 wins last year (Devers at 3.1).

This is why the idea of trading Mayer for a SP seems kind of silly, to me at least.
 
Hank Scorpio

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BeantownIdaho said:
Interesting to think that we would not even have this thread had we signed him last year. People still mad about that?
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If we had X at $25M AAV, I still think we go after Yamamoto. We have Sale coming off the books after this season, along with Jansen, and a few other smaller contracts. Plus we saved Verdugo's money too.
 
Red(s)HawksFan

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BoSoxLady

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Interesting:
“Can confirm that Rafael Devers is flying into LA tomorrow to attend the Celtics Clippers game with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Saturday, for whatever it’s worth.”
Source: Matt Couture (Twitter)
 
BornToRun

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BoSoxLady said:
Interesting:
“Can confirm that Rafael Devers is flying into LA tomorrow to attend the Celtics Clippers game with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Saturday, for whatever it’s worth.”
Source: Matt Couture (Twitter)
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Wouldn’t be the first time we beat the dodgers in their own backyard
 
moondog80

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BoSoxLady said:
Interesting:
“Can confirm that Rafael Devers is flying into LA tomorrow to attend the Celtics Clippers game with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Saturday, for whatever it’s worth.”
Source: Matt Couture (Twitter)
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That’s appears to be a sarcastic response to the original Rams rumor.
 
bosox1534

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BoSoxLady said:
Interesting:
“Can confirm that Rafael Devers is flying into LA tomorrow to attend the Celtics Clippers game with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on Saturday, for whatever it’s worth.”
Source: Matt Couture (Twitter)
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Satire, I’m assuming.
 
chrisfont9

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BornToRun said:
Wouldn’t be the first time we beat the dodgers in their own backyard
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Apparently the Yankees, in addition to grabbing a jersey for Yamamoto from the team store that he's allowed to keep (!!!), made a video with Matsui saying something about Yankee lore blah blah blah. How do the Sox not win the Video War?! Like here's a video of the Dodgers winning their only "world series" in front of 11,000 fans in Texas. And here's a video from two years earlier of the Sox wiping them out in Dodger Stadium. Oh and here is Matsui (assuming you care about old retired guys) grounding out in Game 7 in 2004, the most embarrassing playoff defeat in modern history.
 
jayhoz

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chrisfont9 said:
Apparently the Yankees, in addition to grabbing a jersey for Yamamoto from the team store that he's allowed to keep (!!!), made a video with Matsui saying something about Yankee lore blah blah blah. How do the Sox not win the Video War?! Like here's a video of the Dodgers winning their only "world series" in front of 11,000 fans in Texas. And here's a video from two years earlier of the Sox wiping them out in Dodger Stadium. Oh and here is Matsui (assuming you care about old retired guys) grounding out in Game 7 in 2004, the most embarrassing playoff defeat in modern history.
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Time to toss in the towel folks. If Matsui, his massive porn collection, and his wife are on the case then all hope is lost.

 
BoSoxLady

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Damn! I was so excited that I didn’t recognize the sarcasm. Back to our regularly scheduled programming.
 
pk1627

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P'tucket rhymes with...

P'tucket rhymes with...

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bosox1534 said:
https://x.com/ken_rosenthal/status/1737954683178914076?s=46&t=_NspJPTa_Z0bzVq7nnSw0g

Not even going to be at the game. At this point all the reporters and maybe even this thread should heed from posting as it seems like nobody knows anything.
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Shohei Ohtani might be there, but Yamamoto won’t be.
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Hopefully Ken's sources will learn to tell them apart eventually. The fact that they'd look like DeVito and Schwarzeneggar if you put them side by side should help.
 
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manny said:
Red Sox put themselves into a corner a bit with Wener's "full throttle" comment. I have already seen journalists that seem to be chomping at the bit to destroy the Sox if they have a relatively quiet off-season. Sure, you can be "full throttle" and miss out on a single FA (YY) because he goes somewhere else. But if they miss out on YY, Montgomery, and Snell, I think the pitchforks will be out. I don't think missing out on those three necessarily preclude the Sox from contending next season (obviously depending on what is done instead) but the Sox definitely led fans to believe that they would be big spenders this off-season.
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They put themselves in a corner charging exorbitant ticket prices and putting last place clubs on te field for 3 of the last 4 years and telling fans last year that this year we would be compe
PedroKsBambino said:
I'd guess they are trying, and his agents hvae reasons to keep Sox in the bidding until late just to maximize leverage on bids. Not sure why the agents wouldn't proceed as if he were serious about most teams who could push the bidding up, or how a team can tell he is not considering them until very late in the process (when, for example, he doesn't visit a city if that is in fact the situation)
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Sometimes an exploding offer take x by this date or we offer it and more to the next two guys and we publicly let everybody else know we are going in another direction. Lose one major suitor who you probably are only using anyway.
 
Tokyo Sox

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RG33 said:
I’ve read that it impacts the posting fee to his NPB club though. . . . . that only the guaranteed money in the contract can be counted towards the posting fee. Does that complicate things at all?
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I'm not sure if that's true or not, but either way shouldn't impact his negotiations. They've already posted him, they get what they get, end of story. Unless he feels some overwhelming obligation to maximize Orix' revenue (and your premise is correct), he'll negotiate the best deal for himself, and that's that.
 
Beomoose

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The Red Sox have been told they're out of the bidding, but the team still feels like they have a good shot at him.
 
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