I've seen a lot of talk about special teams in the various Belichick coaching threads, so I'd thought I'd attempt a deeper dive into the Patriots "kicking game" performance this season.
First, a lot of the advanced metrics have the Patriots at or near the bottom of the league when it comes to special teams ranking. Now, those metrics are not necessarily perfect, as they try to encapsulate every aspect of special teams into one number, when in reality special teams is a combination of factors that include kicking, returning, etc. And, as we all know, Belichick has a history of emphasizing special teams play as being critical, and so it's natural to wonder why the Patriots are performing so poorly in this sometimes underrated aspect of the game.
1.) Kickoffs. One of the reasons that the Pats moved on from Nick Folk was the concern about kickoff distance. Rookie Chad Ryland has average 64 yards per kickoff, and has placed 70.8% of his kicks for touchbacks. The former is slightly better than league average, while the latter is slightly worse. To be fair, Ryland has had to kick off a league low of 49 times this season, and the difference in kickoff touchback percentage is all of 2 more kicks in the end zone. Verdict: League Average.
2.) Kick return coverage. Opponents have averaged 23.1 yards per return, which is not any different than the league average of 22.8. Only 2 kickoffs have been returned league wide for TD's, none of them against the Patriots. Verdict: League Average.
3.) Kick returns. Patriots have averaged 22.6 yards per kickoff return, again in line with the league average. Verdict: League Average
4.) Punting. OK, this gets a bit more complicated. No surprise that the Patriots lead all teams outside New Jersey in total number of punts this season. Of course, that stat is hardly an indictment of the special teams play. Baringer yardage numbers (47.2 gross, 41.4 net) are right in line with league averages (47.2 and 41.2, respectively). Pats are 10th in number of punts downed inside the 20. Baringer had one punt partially deflected against the Steelers which does not show up as an official blocked punt in the stats, and there have been 4 official punt blocks league wide this year. Touchback percentage of 9% is slightly higher than league averge, although this number is subject to sample size problems.
I did take a look at all of Baringer's punts this season, and arbitrarily graded them as successful or not. Success meant that the punt either (a) gained 39 yards in net field position; or (b) was downed or out of bounds inside the opponents 20. In that metric, 85% of Baringer's punts have been successful, which seems reasonable and likely in line with other punters in the league. Verdict: Slightly better than League Average.
5.) Punt Coverage: New England has given up average of 9.5 yards per punt return, which is right around the league average of 9.3. No touchdowns, however, which is good for a team that has to punt as much as the Pats. 42.3% of the team's punts have been returned, slightly less than the league average of 43.6%. Verdict: League Average.
6.) Punt returns: Pats are averaging a meager 6.2 yards per return. Marcus Jones being injured probably has a lot to do with this poor showing. Verdict: Below Average.
7.) Field Goals: First, the good: Ryland is 19/19 on extra points, and is a perfect 4/4 on field goals shorter than 30 yards. The bad: 19 extra point attempts is 5th from the league cellar. And now the ugly: no team has as poor of an average of making field goals as the Patriots' 65%. Ryland's 56% success rate on FG's longer than 29 yards is not going to cut it in this league. And while Gillette is not normally known as an easy place to kick, opponents have made 86% of their trys on the Foxboro turf. Verdict: Well below average.
8.) Field Goal defense: My guess is that this aspect of the kicking game has only minor relevance to the metric rankings. The Pats have blocked one of the league's 14 blocked trys this season, albeit in spectacular fashion with an amazing play by Schooler. Teams are hitting 83.8% of field goal attempts when playing the Patriots, slightly below the league average of 85.6%. Verdict: Slightly above average.
9.) Coaching: Let me start by noting that even the best Patriot teams had their fair share of penalties in special teams. Seemed like they couldn't go more than a couple of games without the standard "block in the back" penalty on a return. So it's never been as perfect as nostalgia would leads us to believe. And the numbers bear that out: in both 2014 and 2018, the Pats committed 26 accepted penalties on special teams in 19 games, or 1.37/game, more than this season's 1.07/game. Still, there have been 15 accepted penalties committed by Patriots special teams squad this season, including a costly one the negated a successful two-point conversion against the Eagles. Median for the league is 10. Good news is that the Pats coverage teams have not given up a TD, nor have they committed a roughing/running into a kicker penalty, which are obviously very costly. Verdict: Below Average.
10.) Starting field position: The Patriots trail only the Panthers for league worst starting field position. While not directly a special teams metric, the poor punt returning without Marcus Jones has made the offense's job harder.
Final verdict: It is my contention that the Patriots' poor special teams ranking is a result of the combination of (a) Ryland's poor field goal accuracy; and (b) the absence of Marcus Jones on the punt return team. I know some would want to blame the coaching, and the penalties are indeed a concern. However, the team also punts a lot, and coverage has been at least league average. So the rankings are clearly heavily influenced by Ryland, and to a lesser extent the poor performance on punt returns. Hopefully this season is simply a case of rookie learning curve for Ryland, but I certainly expect some camp competition for this spot next year.
First, a lot of the advanced metrics have the Patriots at or near the bottom of the league when it comes to special teams ranking. Now, those metrics are not necessarily perfect, as they try to encapsulate every aspect of special teams into one number, when in reality special teams is a combination of factors that include kicking, returning, etc. And, as we all know, Belichick has a history of emphasizing special teams play as being critical, and so it's natural to wonder why the Patriots are performing so poorly in this sometimes underrated aspect of the game.
1.) Kickoffs. One of the reasons that the Pats moved on from Nick Folk was the concern about kickoff distance. Rookie Chad Ryland has average 64 yards per kickoff, and has placed 70.8% of his kicks for touchbacks. The former is slightly better than league average, while the latter is slightly worse. To be fair, Ryland has had to kick off a league low of 49 times this season, and the difference in kickoff touchback percentage is all of 2 more kicks in the end zone. Verdict: League Average.
2.) Kick return coverage. Opponents have averaged 23.1 yards per return, which is not any different than the league average of 22.8. Only 2 kickoffs have been returned league wide for TD's, none of them against the Patriots. Verdict: League Average.
3.) Kick returns. Patriots have averaged 22.6 yards per kickoff return, again in line with the league average. Verdict: League Average
4.) Punting. OK, this gets a bit more complicated. No surprise that the Patriots lead all teams outside New Jersey in total number of punts this season. Of course, that stat is hardly an indictment of the special teams play. Baringer yardage numbers (47.2 gross, 41.4 net) are right in line with league averages (47.2 and 41.2, respectively). Pats are 10th in number of punts downed inside the 20. Baringer had one punt partially deflected against the Steelers which does not show up as an official blocked punt in the stats, and there have been 4 official punt blocks league wide this year. Touchback percentage of 9% is slightly higher than league averge, although this number is subject to sample size problems.
I did take a look at all of Baringer's punts this season, and arbitrarily graded them as successful or not. Success meant that the punt either (a) gained 39 yards in net field position; or (b) was downed or out of bounds inside the opponents 20. In that metric, 85% of Baringer's punts have been successful, which seems reasonable and likely in line with other punters in the league. Verdict: Slightly better than League Average.
5.) Punt Coverage: New England has given up average of 9.5 yards per punt return, which is right around the league average of 9.3. No touchdowns, however, which is good for a team that has to punt as much as the Pats. 42.3% of the team's punts have been returned, slightly less than the league average of 43.6%. Verdict: League Average.
6.) Punt returns: Pats are averaging a meager 6.2 yards per return. Marcus Jones being injured probably has a lot to do with this poor showing. Verdict: Below Average.
7.) Field Goals: First, the good: Ryland is 19/19 on extra points, and is a perfect 4/4 on field goals shorter than 30 yards. The bad: 19 extra point attempts is 5th from the league cellar. And now the ugly: no team has as poor of an average of making field goals as the Patriots' 65%. Ryland's 56% success rate on FG's longer than 29 yards is not going to cut it in this league. And while Gillette is not normally known as an easy place to kick, opponents have made 86% of their trys on the Foxboro turf. Verdict: Well below average.
8.) Field Goal defense: My guess is that this aspect of the kicking game has only minor relevance to the metric rankings. The Pats have blocked one of the league's 14 blocked trys this season, albeit in spectacular fashion with an amazing play by Schooler. Teams are hitting 83.8% of field goal attempts when playing the Patriots, slightly below the league average of 85.6%. Verdict: Slightly above average.
9.) Coaching: Let me start by noting that even the best Patriot teams had their fair share of penalties in special teams. Seemed like they couldn't go more than a couple of games without the standard "block in the back" penalty on a return. So it's never been as perfect as nostalgia would leads us to believe. And the numbers bear that out: in both 2014 and 2018, the Pats committed 26 accepted penalties on special teams in 19 games, or 1.37/game, more than this season's 1.07/game. Still, there have been 15 accepted penalties committed by Patriots special teams squad this season, including a costly one the negated a successful two-point conversion against the Eagles. Median for the league is 10. Good news is that the Pats coverage teams have not given up a TD, nor have they committed a roughing/running into a kicker penalty, which are obviously very costly. Verdict: Below Average.
10.) Starting field position: The Patriots trail only the Panthers for league worst starting field position. While not directly a special teams metric, the poor punt returning without Marcus Jones has made the offense's job harder.
Final verdict: It is my contention that the Patriots' poor special teams ranking is a result of the combination of (a) Ryland's poor field goal accuracy; and (b) the absence of Marcus Jones on the punt return team. I know some would want to blame the coaching, and the penalties are indeed a concern. However, the team also punts a lot, and coverage has been at least league average. So the rankings are clearly heavily influenced by Ryland, and to a lesser extent the poor performance on punt returns. Hopefully this season is simply a case of rookie learning curve for Ryland, but I certainly expect some camp competition for this spot next year.
