Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
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In BBTL, yes. Reactionary BS like that will be called out.
I haven't read the Mortensen thread because I don't care.
I haven't read the Mortensen thread because I don't care.
Cap.
It's slang for a lie. Daniels is saying that somebody (likely he means Perry) is lying about him and the story is untrue.
Floating Pats logo for added next to the thumbs up. And one member of the entourage probably got a firm talking to! Nice work Jayden. Come freeze your ass off with the rest of us. Except it's mostly rain now.
Yeah, I figured that. Especially after the interview I posted. All this stuff is nonsense.
Ditto. This reminds me of that old cingular wireless commercial back when texting was a new thing and you had to pay by the text
View: https://youtu.be/4nIUcRJX9-o?si=NxZEZ_InP9jIy4Mg
Not sure where that comes from. Simms is an engagement farmer, but looking back on his QB ratings.... his misses tend to be loving guys who bust (zach Wilson) more than being down on top guys who then succeed.
Yeah, not only rating him really low but continually arguing that his take was correct.
Fair or not, I will never take a Simms prediction or projection seriously after that.
Not to mention he seems like a complete dirtbag. There was a segment where he and Florio were discussing Dolphins fans that created a GoFundMe to help support the family of a well known Dolphin fan who died suddenly. Simms legitimately argued that he didn't like this and, when pressed, admitted it was because the fan who died was mean to him on Twitter. It was one of the most insane things I have ever seen.
Agreed. I don't know how anyone who has listened to Perry for more than 1 minute thinks the guy is a liar or clickbait guy. He seems genuine and level headed.
Chris Simms is a horrible DB with an overdeveloped revenge instinct. He might be right or wrong on certain things, but it's always possible that he rated some guy higher or lower because the guy wore a blue tie to senior day and someone in blue tie stuffed Simms in a locker in 9th grade.
Yeah, Chris Simms' is literally firing darts at a board based on his feels. He gets some right, he gets some wrong, but there is absolutely no consistency to any of his positions.
I mean, how did this list from June, 2022 age?
View: https://twitter.com/CSimmsQB/status/1537261227000438785?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1537261227000438785%7Ctwgr%5E01b16b02086dd5296c751c85b568e10db737e6d7%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fraiderswire.usatoday.com%2F2022%2F06%2F20%2Fchris-simms-ranks-derek-carr-as-worst-starting-qb-in-afc-west%2F
Mac Jones at #18, over the following (Fields at 23, Lawrence at 24, Hurts at 25, Tua at 29, he had Trey Lance at #31 and Geno at #33). I mean, Josh Allen is a very good QB, but anyone putting him ahead of Mahomes (or anyone ahead of Mahomes in 2022) is just looking for clicks.
Maye has plenty of question marks. If people think his decision making is poor and his physical skills can't overcome them - which is a reasonable take - it's not crazy for a risk adverse person to simply rank Maye low.
Some people may rank him low, but nobody out there is ranking him below Nix and Penix. This is classic Simms.
I was all-in on Maye over Daniels, but I have to admit the “decision making” questions about Maye are getting to me.
Now I don’t know who I want. I’m warming up to the idea of trading back, stockpiling picks, and signing maybe Brissett/Flacco/Wilson, and drafting Nix or Penix.
I’m stuck on the question “is Maye or Daniels better than the combination of Nix or Penix + a slightly worse 2024 1st, another 2025 1st, another 2024 2nd, and maybe more.”
Now I don’t know who I want. I’m warming up to the idea of trading back, stockpiling picks, and signing maybe Brissett/Flacco/Wilson, and drafting Nix or Penix.
I’m stuck on the question “is Maye or Daniels better than the combination of Nix or Penix + a slightly worse 2024 1st, another 2025 1st, another 2024 2nd, and maybe more.”
I also want to add, IMO the #1 question for both Maye and Daniels is: “do we think within 5 years these guys can keep up on a scoreboard with Mahomes, Allen, and Jackson?”
If the answer is “well, if the team around them is complete, then yes,” then the question goes to “okay, then in that scenario, where there is a “complete” and competitive team being fielded, is Maye/Daniels substantially more likely than Nix/Penix to push the Patriots past the Chiefs/Ravens/Bills?”
If the answer is “Maye/Daniels is so good they can cover for a few holes on the team to beat Mahomes/Allen/Jackson,” then you probably draft Maye or Daniels. But if in all instances it looks like you’d need a rock solid team around the QB, then trade back, amass picks, and draft a “second-tier” guy.
Either Maye and Daniels appear to be the kinds of generational talent that, by the end of their rookies deals, can beat the best teams even with slightly imperfect teams, or they aren’t. And if they aren’t - it’s better to draft what’s likely a “good-but-lesser” QB talent, amass a ton of high picks, and focus on rock-solid team building.
If the answer is “well, if the team around them is complete, then yes,” then the question goes to “okay, then in that scenario, where there is a “complete” and competitive team being fielded, is Maye/Daniels substantially more likely than Nix/Penix to push the Patriots past the Chiefs/Ravens/Bills?”
If the answer is “Maye/Daniels is so good they can cover for a few holes on the team to beat Mahomes/Allen/Jackson,” then you probably draft Maye or Daniels. But if in all instances it looks like you’d need a rock solid team around the QB, then trade back, amass picks, and draft a “second-tier” guy.
Either Maye and Daniels appear to be the kinds of generational talent that, by the end of their rookies deals, can beat the best teams even with slightly imperfect teams, or they aren’t. And if they aren’t - it’s better to draft what’s likely a “good-but-lesser” QB talent, amass a ton of high picks, and focus on rock-solid team building.
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I think the only question is do you think Maye/Daniels are good enough. Between now and 2029 there are hundreds of personnel moves to be made (we're likely to be bad next year, and can trade back in the draft with a QB-needy team, collect more picks, etc.). Young players will develop, we'll sign FAs, whatever. I don't think you do the reverse team building with a less than possibly elite rookie QB. If you want to settle for less, just go out and get the veteran QB, and build around him. The Purdy and Brady precedents are just not replicable.
Oh I completely agree with you.
I guess when you boil down my post what it’s really asking is “how strongly do we feel that Daniels or Maye is truly elite.” Like, can-eventually-beat-the-other-best-AFC-QB’s (with imperfect teams) levels of “elite.” If the answer is “not so strongly,” I lean more towards focusing on amassing high picks, building an incredible team (like the Niners did) and maybe leaning on a vet in FA to come along (if no 2nd+ round QB’s work out) to be a steady and semi-reliable hand.
The more I think about it, the more it feels “safer” to gamble on a basket of mid-tier FA QBs and/or 2nd round QB’s and surround them with top talent. It’s just a larger pond to fish from than hoping you strike gold on a high pick while so many other holes likely persist on your team.
Sometimes I think everyone is so infatuated with Mahomes that teams are trying to find his replica via the draft. I think that’s a mistake - there’s a reason those types of guys are called “once in a generation.” To me, catching that lightening in a bottle seems much more unlikely than just building a team the way the Niners and Detroit did.
I mean, twice now the Niners had Mahomes beat in SBs. Twice their coaches lost it for them. But I think teams and fans forget that bigger picture and instead keep playing roulette trying to replicate the absurd luck it takes to land a guy like Mahomes (or Brady).
I guess when you boil down my post what it’s really asking is “how strongly do we feel that Daniels or Maye is truly elite.” Like, can-eventually-beat-the-other-best-AFC-QB’s (with imperfect teams) levels of “elite.” If the answer is “not so strongly,” I lean more towards focusing on amassing high picks, building an incredible team (like the Niners did) and maybe leaning on a vet in FA to come along (if no 2nd+ round QB’s work out) to be a steady and semi-reliable hand.
The more I think about it, the more it feels “safer” to gamble on a basket of mid-tier FA QBs and/or 2nd round QB’s and surround them with top talent. It’s just a larger pond to fish from than hoping you strike gold on a high pick while so many other holes likely persist on your team.
Sometimes I think everyone is so infatuated with Mahomes that teams are trying to find his replica via the draft. I think that’s a mistake - there’s a reason those types of guys are called “once in a generation.” To me, catching that lightening in a bottle seems much more unlikely than just building a team the way the Niners and Detroit did.
I mean, twice now the Niners had Mahomes beat in SBs. Twice their coaches lost it for them. But I think teams and fans forget that bigger picture and instead keep playing roulette trying to replicate the absurd luck it takes to land a guy like Mahomes (or Brady).
One thing that keeps nagging at me a bit with these comparisons is the respective age of these guys.
I don’t understand the appeal of Nix at all as a potential 1st rounder. He’s already 24, and this was his breakout year playing against younger players (some significantly younger). I’m not sure what additional upside or ceiling is there as a pro. Same thing a bit with Penix. 6 years as a collegian, though his last two have been superb. However he got manhandled against a “pro” defense (Michigan) in the CFP Championship.
Maye is 21 with 2 years as a starter. It’s unsurprising that he has things to work on, but it feels like there’s room to grow there. JJ McCarthy just won the natty as a 20YO and was 27-1 as a starter over two years (highest winning percentage as a starter in 50+ years) and people are shitting all over him. He likewise has room for growth. The fear is that either/both gets ruined by being asked to start too soon.
Daniels is kind of in between… 23YO with 4 years as a starter. Among other traits, I think this is one reason why people are more comfortable that he and Williams are playable right away. Older collegians with 3 or more years as starters in P5 programs.
I don’t understand the appeal of Nix at all as a potential 1st rounder. He’s already 24, and this was his breakout year playing against younger players (some significantly younger). I’m not sure what additional upside or ceiling is there as a pro. Same thing a bit with Penix. 6 years as a collegian, though his last two have been superb. However he got manhandled against a “pro” defense (Michigan) in the CFP Championship.
Maye is 21 with 2 years as a starter. It’s unsurprising that he has things to work on, but it feels like there’s room to grow there. JJ McCarthy just won the natty as a 20YO and was 27-1 as a starter over two years (highest winning percentage as a starter in 50+ years) and people are shitting all over him. He likewise has room for growth. The fear is that either/both gets ruined by being asked to start too soon.
Daniels is kind of in between… 23YO with 4 years as a starter. Among other traits, I think this is one reason why people are more comfortable that he and Williams are playable right away. Older collegians with 3 or more years as starters in P5 programs.
People aren’t trying to replicate Mahomes. They’re trying to find a QB that can go toe to toe with him (and the other non-Mahomes top QB’s in the league)
And the best way to do that is take one of the first QB’s off the board. In the last 20 years, QB’s drafted in rounds 2-7 have a 4% chance of being an above average QB (going by 90+ passer rating but the numbers are similar using ANY/A and other metrics). The success rate in the first round is about 30%
Brady is obviously a unicorn. But the vast vast majority of non-elite QB prospects aren’t playable NFL QB’s.
And it’s not just Mahomes. A “mid tier FA” (which isn’t really a thing at QB) simply isn’t going to be able to consistently beat Mahomes, Allen, Tua, Stroud, Herbert, Burrow, Rodgers etc.
More often than not in the NFL, the team with the better QB wins (or more accurately, the QB who plays the best). Not always of course. But the majority of the time.
Your defense might be able to shut down Mahomes or Allen. You might get your guy on a hot streak for a few games (Flacco, Foles, etc). But the chances of winning 10+ games and 4 consecutive playoff games facing QBs better than yours are tiny.
There simply isn’t a realistic approach to building a consistent winning team that doesn’t consist of having a top QB. And hoping that the 7th or 8th QB off the board or a Sam Darnold, Drew Lock or Jacoby Brissett can guide a team to double digit wins is like buying a lottery ticket in hopes of paying your mortgage.
If Maye/Daniels aren’t good enough, the question is will Quinn Ewers or Carson Beck be good enough? How long can you wait to try to find a QB?
I certainly would not expect any of these guys to be Mahomes. I think you're looking for a guy that can grow to be Top 10 in the league. That gives you a reasonable chance, along with a good supporting roster, to get to the playoffs consistently and go on a run. If you're lucky he gets to be Top 5, like Burrow, Allen, Jackson, etc. Three SBs by age 28 is definitely a pipe dream.
As for Detroit and SF, I know they get cited a lot, but neither passed over top QBs in a draft like this one. The closest comparison is 2021, where SF traded the farm to move up. It would be basically unprecedented for a team in the Pats' position to not draft one of these QBs.
I definitely would not pass on this year's guys in the hopes of the 2025 class being better. Too much uncertainty. If they do pass, then they just need to go get Wilson or Fields. If they get another chance in 2025 or 2026 (Arch Manning etc.) to draft a top QB, then see then what makes sense.
Wilson or Fields puts them in the same position of having to address the issue next year regardless so if they pass on Maye/Daniels they’re essentially hoping to draft someone in 2025 regardless of what stop gap option they plug in this year (Wilson, Fields, Minshew, Brissett etc)
Well you're assuming Wilson or Fields fail and/or that they don't sign them to a contract of longer than one year. With those guys either or both may be highly likely but it's not a certainty. In theory Fields has 10+ years in him, maybe 3 for Wilson.
In any case, I don't think teams plan (or really can rely) too much based on who might be available in future years. The system just isn't set up that way for guys not on your own team. Unlike the NBA or MLB, where that's more of a possibility.
Sure but you could argue the same for Minshew, Lock, Huntley, Brissett, Tyrod Taylor etc. In theory, any of those guys could be under contract in 2025. Maybe Zappe or Rourke will still be in the organization
The chances that in April 2025 the Pats are feeling good enough about Wilson or Fields to bypass drafting a QB are the same in my mind as those other guys. Which is to say, they’re almost non existent
He’s much more mobile, has a better arm, wasn’t throwing to all world WRs and still won a lot.
They're really not similar prospects IMO aside from them being white QBs who are on the shorter side (i.e, not 6'4) and won a natty.
Edit: the google machine tells me they are both 6'3. Taller than I thought TBH.
Edit 2: I like McCarthy, but there are some throws where I am screaming NO before he even releases it, and those give me some pause (I know, all QBs have some of these). Here are two examples. The 2nd one was a particularly asanine decision IMO.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKxapERaPJU
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNXkW-YB1V0
Edit: the google machine tells me they are both 6'3. Taller than I thought TBH.
Edit 2: I like McCarthy, but there are some throws where I am screaming NO before he even releases it, and those give me some pause (I know, all QBs have some of these). Here are two examples. The 2nd one was a particularly asanine decision IMO.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qKxapERaPJU
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jNXkW-YB1V0
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After watching 7 minutes of McCarthy highlights and 5 minutes of Daniels highlights I come to the following conclusions:
Daniels is a truly gifted runner who would probably only have Jackson as a peer.
Daniels has a nice touch and accuracy on deep balls, which was particularly beneficial given that he had great receivers who were open deep a lot.
He doesn't throw on the run particularly well, and doesn't rifle the ball over the middle into tight windows.
McCarthy is pretty fast himself, and seems able to pick up some tough yards.
He's got a cannon and can fit it into tight windows.
He throws well on the run and usually looks to throw before running.
If Brady taught us anything it's that a guy who is fanatically dedicated to improving and winning may end up being the better QB. This has got to be one of the tougher things to evaluate, but I sure hope it's at the top of Mayo/Wolf's list.
I'm on team Mac II.
Daniels is a truly gifted runner who would probably only have Jackson as a peer.
Daniels has a nice touch and accuracy on deep balls, which was particularly beneficial given that he had great receivers who were open deep a lot.
He doesn't throw on the run particularly well, and doesn't rifle the ball over the middle into tight windows.
McCarthy is pretty fast himself, and seems able to pick up some tough yards.
He's got a cannon and can fit it into tight windows.
He throws well on the run and usually looks to throw before running.
If Brady taught us anything it's that a guy who is fanatically dedicated to improving and winning may end up being the better QB. This has got to be one of the tougher things to evaluate, but I sure hope it's at the top of Mayo/Wolf's list.
I'm on team Mac II.
JJ McCarthy's throwing session at the combine did not impress me. Sailing lots of throws and, from what I've read/heard, that matches up with what his game film shows. No thanks.
One of Daniels’ real plusses is his improvement year over year. From the outside, he definitely looks like a guy that puts in the work and sees results on the field. Of course there are lots of compounding factors and touting Daniels’ improvement isn’t a knock on anyone else.
Also a plus for Daniels is that he put up big numbers under Brian Kelly, who hasn’t overseen a decent passing attack since his Cincinnati days.
They’re not at all similar beyond being “winners” in college
McCarthy has better arm strength and much more mobility, he’s also a bit more of an unknown/project
Mac Jones was seen as a high floor/fairly low ceiling, what you saw was what you hoped you would get in the pros. Not mobile, but a guy who could read defenses quickly and make quick accurate short throws
McCarthy is a higher ceiling player who is much more aligned with modern QB play styles, but needs refinement in his game and nobody knows how he would do in a pass oriented offense since he wasn’t ever really put in a position where he had to put his team on his back and just sling it all day
I think the most impressive thing about Daniels is the year over year improvement. 2023 Daniels clearly took his perceived flaws from 2022 and worked hard to improve those facets of the game and transformed himself from a potential day 3 pick to a potential top 3 pick.
