If the Giants stick with Mike DeVito, they will be difficult to pass, They signed Matt Barkley this week and Tyrod has a chance to come off IR in 4 weeks. But that game in two weeks is looking tough - even with Mac.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
Arizona actually has a professional quarterback. That should keep them out of the running for the rest of the season. Carolina and New York, those are some real contenders for most inept but I’m hopeful that the Panthers’ lack of a FRP will help them win a game or two, but options don’t look great.
The Pats Bills game was fun, but it’s that first Jets win I’d like to have back. That game wasn’t even fun to watch.
The Pats Bills game was fun, but it’s that first Jets win I’d like to have back. That game wasn’t even fun to watch.
I think if they played the way they did today they win easily because NYG can't take advantage of mistakes and our defense was good, which given how NYG have played means the D could score enough to win on their own.
ooh, somethign I did not notice.....
Arizona has a real chance of passing NEP in strength of schedule tiebreaker.
Arizona has a real chance of passing NEP in strength of schedule tiebreaker.
If the Pats beat the NYG, but lose the rest of the way (including, critically, to Denver on Christmas Eve), I think they'll wind up with the #3 or #4 pick.
Given how hard it's going to be to lose to the Giants, it's worth keeping an eye on the 3-win teams. Here's some back-of-the-napkin analysis:
Teams who are just about locks to finish worse than the Pats
CAR - 1 win (play the Titans, Saints, Falcons, Packers) (probably all but locked into #1).
NYG - 2 wins (play the Pats in two weeks, other winnable games: Packers, Rams and Saints) (they're probably locked into the #2 spot unless Tyrod Taylor makes a miraculous late-season comeback and beats the tanking Rams or resting Eagles)
Teams with 3 wins who are almost certainly going to get to 4 wins (likely wins bolded)
Ten - 3 wins (play the Panthers and Colts)
GB - 3 wins (play the Giants, Panthers and Bears)
Den - 3 wins (play the Pats on Christmas Eve, other winnable games: Vikings, Browns, Raiders)
Teams who are problems for the Pats
LAR - 3 wins (play the Cardinals and Giants). If the Rams tank, they could give the Cardinals another win. That said, I don't think the tanking Rams will lose to the Giants, so they likely wind up at 4 wins.
Ari - 2 wins (play the Rams, Steelers, Bears, and Seahawks).
Bears - 3 wins (play the Vikings, Browns, Cardinals, Falcons)
The Arizona-Chicago game is critical. If Arizona wins, then both Arizona and the Bears could wind up with 3 wins and wind up in a tiebreaker with the Pats. If the Bears win, then they become a 4-win team and we have to hope that Arizona squeezes out a couple of surprise wins against other teams.
Edited to add: The Pats have 2 wins and will likely beat the NYG in two weeks. Their other winnable games are (a) the @Denver game and (b) the Jets game to close out the season. I suspect there will be quite a few teams with 4 wins, so getting to 4 or 5 wins would be utterly pointless and terrible for their draft position.
Given how hard it's going to be to lose to the Giants, it's worth keeping an eye on the 3-win teams. Here's some back-of-the-napkin analysis:
Teams who are just about locks to finish worse than the Pats
CAR - 1 win (play the Titans, Saints, Falcons, Packers) (probably all but locked into #1).
NYG - 2 wins (play the Pats in two weeks, other winnable games: Packers, Rams and Saints) (they're probably locked into the #2 spot unless Tyrod Taylor makes a miraculous late-season comeback and beats the tanking Rams or resting Eagles)
Teams with 3 wins who are almost certainly going to get to 4 wins (likely wins bolded)
Ten - 3 wins (play the Panthers and Colts)
GB - 3 wins (play the Giants, Panthers and Bears)
Den - 3 wins (play the Pats on Christmas Eve, other winnable games: Vikings, Browns, Raiders)
Teams who are problems for the Pats
LAR - 3 wins (play the Cardinals and Giants). If the Rams tank, they could give the Cardinals another win. That said, I don't think the tanking Rams will lose to the Giants, so they likely wind up at 4 wins.
Ari - 2 wins (play the Rams, Steelers, Bears, and Seahawks).
Bears - 3 wins (play the Vikings, Browns, Cardinals, Falcons)
The Arizona-Chicago game is critical. If Arizona wins, then both Arizona and the Bears could wind up with 3 wins and wind up in a tiebreaker with the Pats. If the Bears win, then they become a 4-win team and we have to hope that Arizona squeezes out a couple of surprise wins against other teams.
Edited to add: The Pats have 2 wins and will likely beat the NYG in two weeks. Their other winnable games are (a) the @Denver game and (b) the Jets game to close out the season. I suspect there will be quite a few teams with 4 wins, so getting to 4 or 5 wins would be utterly pointless and terrible for their draft position.
Last edited:
Given that this season is now a lost cause, I think it's really important for NE to hold onto the #3 slot and not drop down further. Because ultimately, that means that one of Harrison, Williams, or Maye is available. This brings up two possibilities. First, if you can get the guy you want at whatever that spot is, you draft him. Second, if you can't, you look to basically do the trade the Bears did with the Panthers last year. Grab two 1sts and two 2nds while sliding down a half dozen spots this year so you're effectively giving yourself a ton of top-60 picks the next two drafts to build your team around. I want and I hope that we can get a QB who is the guy this year, but if whoever is running things doesn't see it, then I'm happy to be able to have 5-6 picks in the first two rounds over the next couple drafts to build the foundation for the next team.
If the Pats are able to trade down from #3 to, say, #9, and pick up another first rounder in 2024 and then in 2025, along with a couple of 2nds or 3rds, in just this draft they could potentially draft (using this mock draft to see guys who could be available at those spots):
1st round (#9) - TE Brock Bowers, Georgia - An absolutely elite TE prospect that can do it all. What BB has been looking for since Gronk left.
1st round (#28 say) - OT Patrick Paul, Houston - A stud OT prospect, which the Pats desperately need.
2nd round (#35) - QB Michael Penix, Washington - A QB prospect they really could use.
2nd round (#60, say) - WR Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington - Already polished and huge (6'4"), has great chemistry with Penix and could step in right away.
That would be incredible to walk away with a haul like this. Elite TE, stud OT, highly regarded QB prospect, and a quality WR (that plays the X position) that already has chemistry and experience and trust with this QB.
1st round (#9) - TE Brock Bowers, Georgia - An absolutely elite TE prospect that can do it all. What BB has been looking for since Gronk left.
1st round (#28 say) - OT Patrick Paul, Houston - A stud OT prospect, which the Pats desperately need.
2nd round (#35) - QB Michael Penix, Washington - A QB prospect they really could use.
2nd round (#60, say) - WR Ja'Lynn Polk, Washington - Already polished and huge (6'4"), has great chemistry with Penix and could step in right away.
That would be incredible to walk away with a haul like this. Elite TE, stud OT, highly regarded QB prospect, and a quality WR (that plays the X position) that already has chemistry and experience and trust with this QB.
Last edited:
If they can somehow pull out a loss against the Giants in a couple weeks, they will be sitting pretty.
Be interesting to see how the group of QBs after Williams and Maye shake out. Seen plenty of mocks with 6 QBs going in round 1 but not necessarily the same six and a very different order after the top 2. A lot of time between now and the draft and things will change plenty.
If they lose to the Giants they'll be in pretty good shape for a top 3-5 pick. A win against the Giants and it gets murky, they'll drop back in to the 3 win group and get killed by the SoS tiebreaker.
The Pats play a ton of 1 score games. They are 2-5 in those this year. A potential problem is they continue doing that against weaker competition and pull a rabit out of their ass once or twice and end up in the 5-6 win range. Good enough for the top 10 but not high enough for the impact QB's or MHJ.
The Pats play a ton of 1 score games. They are 2-5 in those this year. A potential problem is they continue doing that against weaker competition and pull a rabit out of their ass once or twice and end up in the 5-6 win range. Good enough for the top 10 but not high enough for the impact QB's or MHJ.
Can we let BB negotiate the trade and then fire him and let someone else make the picks? Jokes aside, this highlights why I am rooting for L’s hard the rest of the way. The value of a top 3 pick is simply immense. You either get your franchise guy or you can get a ton of trade value.
The Giants defense has been pretty good at times so it will really depend on them generating turnovers and/or hoping Saquon just breaks a fluky long one because they have no OL and basically no QB.
Not impossible to lose that game but it will be very very difficult. I would expect the Pats defense to roll in that one.
Not impossible to lose that game but it will be very very difficult. I would expect the Pats defense to roll in that one.
The Pats are probably better than the Giants, but it wouldn’t shock me if we see another game like the ones the past few weeks, where the Pats are in a tight, one score game that comes down to which QB manages not to shit all over himself more. They could easily lose that kind of game.
The Pats just don’t score enough to have comfortable victories, even over other bad teams.
I can't remember the last NFL team I've watched that was as profoundly awful as this Giants team.
I love all of this. That’s an optimistic, but somehow still realistic, path forward and I’m onboard. Nice to look forward after yesterdays sheisse sandwich.
Anyone who finds this team uninteresting is missing out. They're bad, yes, but profoundly interesting. This offseason is going to be one of the most interesting in team history, up and down the entire organization.
Isn't that a different argument?
Watching the team this season is incredibly uninteresting but the off-season will be very intersting. I think those are two separate things
I actually think they're interesting NOW. They don't play exciting, quality football but they're still interesting to me for lots of reasons.
Yeah. I mean I can name maybe 3 guys (Pop, Barmore, White) who I’m excited to see develop and the rest is noise on the way to a top pick.
First off, because it's my team, which I'm always going to find to be interesting to a degree. Second, right now it's like a car wreck - horrible but man, I just can't take my eyes off it. Third, let's face it...they're incredibly creative. Creative in how they find ways to lose. I'm watching each game now and I'm like, ok they've got first and goal at the 7...how are they going to find a way to screw this up? Or...they're driving for the winning score...what crazy awful thing is going to happen to keep them from pulling this out? It's incredibly fascinating.
Plus, I like trying to get into the mind of Belichick in these situations. Like, he's writing stuff down in his notebook during the game. What the heck is he saying?
"OMG we CANNOT run this play ever again...these guys are morons." Or whatever.
So yeah, by "interesting" I don't necessarily mean in a good way. But it IS interesting, at least to me.
I don't really know how this all works in the NFL, but according to Spotrac...
So his 2024 dead cap hit is $81.5 million. That can't be what Arizona would be on the hook for if they trade him, can it?
Jeff Howe spells it out pretty well here. A trade is possible, but unlikely
https://theathletic.com/5048123/2023/11/10/arizona-cardinals-kyler-murray-return/
That's a release. Click on the red "x" on the right for more details on trade/cuts.
Ah thank you very much. Sorry @E5 Yaz - I couldn't open that article but I appreciate you linking to it anyway.
This is helpful.
2024 Dead Cap: $13,007,000
2025 Dead Cap: $33,214,000
2024 Cap Savings: $38,850,000
So they could deal him for sure, though they take a huge cap hit in 2025 if they trade him. Yikes. But still...if they do it and draft a rookie to replace him, it's a kind of manageable number for the QB position.
I'm SO torn. If they have the #1 pick, say, and could have their choice between Maye, Williams, and Harrison.... here's the argument for all of them, as I see it.
Williams: Electric athlete, huge arm, obviously very successful at the college level, having won a Heisman. Can make all the throws you'd ever ask of a QB. But he's been erratic this year and there's been some warning signs about his maturity.
Maye: Not the athlete that Williams is. But has a good arm, very accurate, seems like a very good pro prospect.
Harrison: Best WR prospect I've ever seen, for real. Has everything you want: size, speed, strength, hands, precision, quickness, intelligence...could transform an offense. BUT...WR is NOT as important a position as QB is. The Pats need BOTH, of course.
But because I think legitimately good QB options a bit later in the draft, I think I'd go with Harrison and then make sure I get a shot at Penix, even if it means trading back up a little.
I really like the top two QBs, and at the start of the year I was like either would be amazing, but I've slowed down just a bit on both Williams and Maye, and think there are other really good QB options that could be had later. I could be WAY wrong on this (probably am), but I think I'd go with Harrison and try to snag Penix with the next pick. I just think Harrison is that good, that transformative.
But man, the Pats really DO need to solve the QB situation, ASAP.
Win by Denver last night. Lots of stuff can happen, but seems like a 3 team race at this point between NE, NYG, and Carolina. The Giants game is a "must lose" I think for NE, as it's hard for me to see NY knocking off another team as they have a tough schedule the rest of the season. The Panthers have a few potentially winnable games, but certainly long-shots.
Problem with this strategy is there is no guarantee you can get that QB later. I've seen Penix go as high as six in mock drafts. If there is one QB you are targeting, you are be better of trading down slightly and grabbing him .
If there are a couple second tier QBs you like and have similar grade on but you really love Harrison, then your strategy makes perfect sense. Grab Harrison and see which of the QBs you like is there a little later.
I'm mostly onboard with this. I don't see Williams or Maye as the same caliber prospect as, say, Trevor Lawrence. Lawrence is generally regarded as a top 10-12 QB and is very far from garbage, but by many standard metrics he's been meh this season: QBR (16th), RTG (18th), ANY/A (17th).
Maybe it's irrational, but if we're spending a top 5 pick on a QB, I'm hoping he's better than Lawrence. And I'm not at all convinced Williams or Maye will be.
Lawrence was also a generational prospect who’s arrow is pointing up. Headed toward a second straight playoff appearance. Little chance Maye or Williams or really any individual QB becomes that good.
If your standard is better than Lawrence, the best QB prospect of the last decade.... you're going to be waiting a while for a QB, and playing guys you HOPE are better than Mac. Trevor Lawrence would be an incredible outcome for a top 3 pick, you then just need to build around him. You are almost certainly not getting a QB of that quality later in the draft, and all of the sudden Marvin Harrison Jr is your Allen Robinson
Well, I did say maybe I was being irrational...
My point is there isn't a QB in the current top 10, including Mahomes, who was the prospect that Trevor Lawrence was. Hey, I'm spoiled. If we're going to spend a top 3 pick on a QB, I want someone at least as good as Lawrence ... but probably better. To put it another way, if either Williams or Maye were a Lawrence-like prospect, I'd draft him happily and accept the outcome. But they're not.
And so I'm entertaining the idea of maximizing our top 3 pick by trading down for a (very slightly, to my mind) lesser prospect like JJ McCarthy or drafting the best WR prospect since Moss and rolling with a less accomplished QB with enticing physical skills (Nix, Daniels, etc.). YMMV.
But for all the hype Trevor Lawrence had, along with his other middle-of-the-road stats, he still only has 9 TDs this year despite being totally free from Urban Meyer for a year. He's thrown fewer touchdowns than Mac who just got benched again. Perhaps permanently. Better results in the wins department obviously, but he hasn't done a ton to live up to the hype.
This week was almost a huge week for NE. The Giants won, but it’ll still come down to next week. CHI and AZ came pretty close too. Those would have been massive. If there’s a positive, it’s that all the teams threatening to pass NE looked kinda scrappy today. And maybe Murray and Fields are the answer? Maybe?
Any of them winning today is huge. The Bears and Cardinals are competitive with Fields and Murray, respectively - they aren’t good, but they’ll clip a few teams.
Hard to see a path to #1, though. Carolina has zero incentive to tank but they just keep losing.
My concern is a little bit of a reverse. Like perhaps ARI & CHI feel they are their respective answers, & as such, a team like LAR, GB, &/or TB will pip the Pats to trade up.
The Panthers might finish 1-16 and trade down from #1 to a dark horse.
I think the Pats end up 4th or 5th when all is said & done, *maybe* top 3 if they do lose next week. There's also the Chargers at home that "concerns" me
I think the Pats end up 4th or 5th when all is said & done, *maybe* top 3 if they do lose next week. There's also the Chargers at home that "concerns" me