This format is more appealing to me than a zoom meeting, just my $0.02 though.
Official Patriots 2024 Draft Pick Watch Thread (#3)
- Thread starter BigSoxFan
- Start date
I made a post in the draft subforum so we don't clog up this one to see how many people would be interested.
Yes I've been saying since WSH signed Kliff that Daniels is more of a candidate for them at #2 than Maye is. Would be a home run for the Patriots.
Interesting quote from Ron Wolff in today's Globe article about Eliot Wolf: "
“What are you going to do, take a wide receiver?” Ron Wolf said. “You have to have someone to throw him the ball.”
“What are you going to do, take a wide receiver?” Ron Wolf said. “You have to have someone to throw him the ball.”
Do Kingsbury and the Commanders think Caleb Williams (a better version of Kyler Murray maybe?) is enough of an improvement over Daniels that he is worth giving up a second to Chicago?
If you’re Chicago maybe you’ve seen enough of an athletic running QB who has fumbilitis. You get a Drake Maye, a receiver and OT with your 9 and that extra second.
Trade points would need to even out somewhere down the draft but this seems like a plausible outcome. Plus if you trade Fields you could possibly pick up a 4th, maybe even a 3rd. It’s a gamble for the Bears but they are in a nice position to really beef up their squad.
I’m mentally preparing for Daniels on the Pats. Still think that’s the most likely outcome and it’s not a bad one.
If you’re Chicago maybe you’ve seen enough of an athletic running QB who has fumbilitis. You get a Drake Maye, a receiver and OT with your 9 and that extra second.
Trade points would need to even out somewhere down the draft but this seems like a plausible outcome. Plus if you trade Fields you could possibly pick up a 4th, maybe even a 3rd. It’s a gamble for the Bears but they are in a nice position to really beef up their squad.
I’m mentally preparing for Daniels on the Pats. Still think that’s the most likely outcome and it’s not a bad one.
I see the top four as a meaningful ranking, and probably the bottom five. The rest is more or less interchangeable, which probably reflects how much a team can affect quarterback performance.
Slot fade spamming was something BAL had a lot of success with this year and made a huge difference for Lamar. It's a great way to kill Cover 2 especially with a mobile QB.
Also amusingly... that's something Kingsbury LOVES, adds a little more fuel to the idea that if they can't get to #1 for Caleb, WAS might end up with Daniels over Maye.
Patriots.com mock draft video #1. Interesting stuff:
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhzQ7qcN_fo
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IhzQ7qcN_fo
If the Pats focus on QB and WR - which a lot of people want them to do - and the "tackle train" gets running, the Pats could be left out of the good tackles. And since this isn't a good year for tackle in free agency, how would we expect NE to shore up that position?
probably mid-tier guys and hope for better health. Sneaky thing is that last year the tackle talent was not the issue really, especially once Onwenwu moved outside, it was more health and depth. Of course the class isn't all that deep either in terms of FA, but I'd expect them to sign Onwenwu or Williams and one other guy (Eluemenor?) then draft someone in the first 4 rounds. Even the "good" tackles in the draft are probably not good plug and play (maybe Alt) at tackle, so few guys are, usually takes a year. Line is going to be somewhat shaky next year. I would guess the hope is another year for the young guys (Sow particularly) Strange getting healthy, and just a bit better injury/illness luck, plus some mild upgrades makes it better (plus a new line coach) then 2025 is when you expect it to step forward in a larger way.
I think I'd like them to go QB, OT for the top two picks; aim for an upper-tier WR during free agency; then take another swing at WR in the middle rounds.
I'm coming around on this approach also. In particular, I'm looking at Johnny Wilson (FSU) &/or Malachi Corley (WKU) in this range, assuming either don't rocket up the board in the next couple months.
I'd hate for the book to be closed on Calvin Anderson. He's a young (27), athletic guy with some (limited) experience at both LT and RT. Yeah, he's probably at best a swing tackle, but here's hoping he actually suits up this coming season. He might still have some development in him.
Corley might take off after the combine if he runs well. He’s the type of YAC/playmaker guy teams love. Not sure he’ll be explosive enough to be a top 50 pick but I think he ends up day 2 somewhere
So I've been watching some games of Drake Maye and checking out what various draft guys say.... I'm higher on him than I was, I hope he falls to 3, I think he'll end up my QB2 in this draft.
One thing I noticed from watching more full games (ACC has some of their full games on youtube), is something that was mentioned (I think by Trevor Sikkema) which is.... he makes some INSANE bad decisions, but he actually doesn't make that many, like he's not that turnover prone, it's just when he makes them they are often just like over the top bad choices. So you get the feel of "this dude is making crazy decisions" when the overall ratio of good to bad decisions is actually pretty strong.
One thing I noticed from watching more full games (ACC has some of their full games on youtube), is something that was mentioned (I think by Trevor Sikkema) which is.... he makes some INSANE bad decisions, but he actually doesn't make that many, like he's not that turnover prone, it's just when he makes them they are often just like over the top bad choices. So you get the feel of "this dude is making crazy decisions" when the overall ratio of good to bad decisions is actually pretty strong.
Haven't watched many of his games. What are his bad decisions? Trying to do too much/throwing across his body, bad reads, Mac-ish panic throws or something else?
trying to do too much, some Wentz-like "WHAT?" decisions. Even when they work out, like he got a bunch of positive attention for a left handed throw for a TD... that kind of absolute crazy stuff is usually not a good idea.
Also stuff like this:
View: https://twitter.com/cjzero/status/1703148049235673314
That second one is particularly ugly. I'd be hoping some of the hero stuff would dissipate or be coached out at the higher level of competition, but what I worry about with any of the QB prospects is that our line and WRs will not put them in a position to succeed, they'll get rushed, they'll make dumb plays. If they draft one of these guys, there will be lumps.
Daniel Jeremiah suggests a trade up to No. 1
BEARS RECEIVE:
2024 1st-round pick (No. 3 overall) | 2,200 points
2024 2nd-round pick (No. 34) | 560 points
2025 1st-round pick | 900 points
2026 3rd-round pick | 116 points
PATRIOTS RECEIVE:
2024 1st-round pick (No. 1) | 3,000 points
COST: New England pays a 26% premium (3,776 total points) to move up two spots.
If the Patriots' new leadership decides to make a splash for the top pick, the Bears would be wise to listen. In this scenario, Chicago would likely still be able to land consensus WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 3 overall, pairing the dynamic pass catcher with DJ Moore to form one of the league's most dangerous receiving combos. The Bears could then stick and pick at No. 9 or package that selection, with the newly acquired second-rounder, to move up for the No. 1 tackle on the team's board. The opportunity to address two massive offensive needs with top-tier talent on team-friendly deals, while still holding multiple first-rounders in the 2025 draft, improves this squad immediately and for the future.
https://www.nfl.com/news/could-bears-keep-justin-fields-trade-no-1-overall-pick-in-2024-nfl-draft-four-hypothetical-deals
BEARS RECEIVE:
2024 1st-round pick (No. 3 overall) | 2,200 points
2024 2nd-round pick (No. 34) | 560 points
2025 1st-round pick | 900 points
2026 3rd-round pick | 116 points
PATRIOTS RECEIVE:
2024 1st-round pick (No. 1) | 3,000 points
COST: New England pays a 26% premium (3,776 total points) to move up two spots.
If the Patriots' new leadership decides to make a splash for the top pick, the Bears would be wise to listen. In this scenario, Chicago would likely still be able to land consensus WR1 Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 3 overall, pairing the dynamic pass catcher with DJ Moore to form one of the league's most dangerous receiving combos. The Bears could then stick and pick at No. 9 or package that selection, with the newly acquired second-rounder, to move up for the No. 1 tackle on the team's board. The opportunity to address two massive offensive needs with top-tier talent on team-friendly deals, while still holding multiple first-rounders in the 2025 draft, improves this squad immediately and for the future.
https://www.nfl.com/news/could-bears-keep-justin-fields-trade-no-1-overall-pick-in-2024-nfl-draft-four-hypothetical-deals
This is what worries me about Maye, and I'm not sure his penchant for recklessness can be reduced. My guess is either you're relatively disciplined and composed -- even at a young age -- or you're able to be confused, sped up, and forced into mistakes.
He had 9 INT + 3 Fum (2 lost) in 12 games in 2023 and 7 + 9 (5 lost) in 14 games in 2022. That's a lot of turnovers in the ACC, and it's not like he was facing a murder's row of defenses.
Here's where the defenses he faced this year ranked in the FBS in yards allowed per game (as of 1/8/24):
For sure he's talented ... but seeing a better than average NFL QB here requires a fair amount of projection.
He had 9 INT + 3 Fum (2 lost) in 12 games in 2023 and 7 + 9 (5 lost) in 14 games in 2022. That's a lot of turnovers in the ACC, and it's not like he was facing a murder's row of defenses.
Here's where the defenses he faced this year ranked in the FBS in yards allowed per game (as of 1/8/24):
- S. Carolina, 87th
- App State, 63rd
- Minnesota, 54th
- Pitt, 49th
- Syracuse, 65th
- Miami, 24th
- Virginia, 101st
- GA Tech, 120th (lower than UMass, 114th)
- Campbell, ???
- Duke, 41st
- Clemson, 8th (Maye went 16/36, 209 yards, 1 TD/1 INT, 4 sacks)
- NC State, 29th
For sure he's talented ... but seeing a better than average NFL QB here requires a fair amount of projection.
Counterpoint: Matt Ryan
Had 19 INTs in his senior season and forced quite a few throws to a subpar supporting cast. Also made some great throws and showed the potential that he would later demonstrate in the NFL.
There is definitely some projection here but Maye feels like a guy to me who has good enough upside to make it worth selecting him.
I'd do that, Caleb Williams to me is a clear tier above any other QB in this draft and the best QB prospect since Lawrence (if he were 2 inches taller maybe better), he's just a special thrower, and while he held the ball too long at USC, the in the pocket time to throw was decent, so it was mostly him trying to make things happen.... which he needed to because that team around him, particularly the defense was terrible.
One thing about him beyond lack of talent (and it is bad) is that I'm not sure a lot of his turnovers were all his fault (PFF showed him with pretty low turnover worthy plays). Some like the ones above in this thread are pretty bad. On the other hand I watched the NC state game (he struggled, lot of pressure, kept slipping on the turf, airmailed some throws, really only positives were his running), he had a pick where Tez Walker just kinda gave up on a route and the ball hit him right in the breadbasket only to pop up and get picked, then a second pick on a throw that was a bit high, but also still hit his TE in both hands. That's 22% of his INTs in that game and they were both balls that should have been completions. He had one of his fumbles in that game, and it was his fault, 3rd and long scramble tried to run through 2 guys like Josh Allen and lost the handle.
Seems like a no brainer if Chicago were stupid enough to do it. But the options at tackle would be thin.
I think that 34th pick almost has to be a tackle barring an unexpected veteran development. Maybe they can patch it together for a year and hit tackle in the first next year but the proposed deal takes both those options off the table obviously.
That said, if there’s a reasonable deal to be made to get Caleb Williams, you have to pull the trigger.
Well yeah, there will be lumps. Lots of them.
I'll just point out the rookie seasons for these guys:
Peyton Manning: 326-575 (56.7%), 3,739 yds, 26 td, 28 int, 71.2 rating
Brett Favre: 318-522 (60.9%), 3,303 yds, 19 td, 24 int, 72.2 rating (this was actually his 2nd year as a starter)
John Elway: 123-259 (47.5%), 1,663 yds, 7 td, 14 int, 54.9 rating
Drew Brees: 320-526 (60.8%), 3,284 yds, 17 td, 16 int, 76.9 rating (even worse his second season)
Trevor Lawrence: 359-602 (59.6%), 3,641 yds, 12 td, 17 int, 71.9 rating
Josh Allen: 169-320 (52.8%), 2,074 yds, 10 td, 12 int, 67.9 rating
And on and on. Rookie QBs have a ton of lumps. Even some of the greatest to ever play the position. And for many of them, those lumps last a few years.
I think Maye, Daniels, and Williams all have really good NFL talent. But it's almost a certainty that it'll be a rough ride the first year or two (or three) before it all starts to click for them. And there's also a reasonable chance that for one or two of them (maybe even all three) it will never click.
So we need to buckle up as fans if they draft one of these guys. It's going to be a wild ride with lots of "WTF was that?" moments.
I hope the Pats don't trade all those draft picks to move up 2 spots when nobody knows which (if any) of the 3 QBs will end up being the real deal. Just pick whoever falls to 3, or trade back for a haul and start loading up the rest of the roster. It's going to be a few years before they are competitive again anyway.
If NE goes OT in 2nd, which they probably need to do, I hope they double dip in the mid rounds at WR and get two out of rounds 3-5. Get a couple WRs out of the Tez Walker/Roman Wilson/Xavier Legette/McMillan/Polk/Javon Baker/Malik Washington/ grouping. The depth of this years WR class really can't be overstated especially compared to last years class.
I mean, I don't really get this. Sure every player has risk, but you want to do what you can to minimize that, and not all 3 QBs are generally considered the same level of risk both by the general community and almost certainly among the Patriots' scouting staff. Moving to #1 means you can get the guy with the lowest risk.
Williams has been the consensus #1 for like 2 years now, and consensus #1 picks like that actually have a pretty strong track record of success.
The thing is, I kind of doubt that the Patriots have all 3 of those guys with the same or similar grades. Now maybe they do have them close enough, or maybe the guy they have #2 is close enough to Caeb and isn't the same guy WAS has a #2 so they get their guy, maybe they trade back..... but I do think people are undervaluing that Caleb is generally seen as the clear #1. Oh some people here and there have him not #1, but he has been consensus since before last year's draft and never fallen from that.
It's just a lot of picks to give up in my mind for a slightly improved chance that Caleb is the guy. (Perhaps I'm wrong but he doesn't seem like one of the clear "can't miss" guys to me. And those guys still miss frequently anyway.) It seems to me like the community consensus of say the best 3-5 QBs is generally pretty good, in the sense that the best 1 or 2 generally come out of the consensus top 5. But which 1 or 2 actually end up being solid NFL QBs seems like random luck to me.
I'm okay with the idea of not trading up because you don't like value, but I was just pushing back at the idea that there isn't a meaningful risk difference. I will say I think consensus number 1s, especially ones who were consensus #1s before the previous season even started are a rarer commodity and hit at a much higher rate.
To me, I would put my preferences like this:
1. Trade up for Caleb at the floated price (but not a ton more)
2. Draft your #2 QB at #3.
3. Draft the #3 QB if you have a high enough grade on him.
4. Trade back at least once and focus on OT, get extra 2nds, don't draft a QB in round 1 or 2 (maybe someone like a Rattler in round 4, otherwise roll vet).
I totally understand where you are coming from, and you know a lot more about evaluating prospects than I do. It's just hard for me to square that the increased probability of Caleb hitting over the other two is worth the value of all those picks.
It’s not just the increased probability of a “hit” it’s the quality of that hit (i.e. the perceived ceiling of those 3 prospects)
The other factor is obviously drafting 3rd removes any ability to actually choose which of those 3 guys you select, even in the very unlikely world where they have all 3 graded similarly. You’re hoping that the guy deemed by two other teams to be not the best bet/highest ceiling guy turns out to actually be the best.
Probably a fair trade but no way do I do that if I'm New England. They have a ton of needs, with QB being one of them. Maye and Daniels may not be the #1 QB prospect, but they are both legit, really good NFL prospects. To give up three other important draft picks to go from Maye to Williams is a major risk, and it's entirely possible that Maye ends up being better than Williams anyway.
I do understand the thinking though, and if the Pats are completely, 100% sold that Williams is the #1 player with by far the highest ceiling, then I guess maybe it's worth doing. Obviously nailing the QB pick in April is crucial to their future.
I would agree with this. When Lawrence came out, he was way ahead of Wilson and Lance. You did not see similar talk then as you do now with the top 3. Or at least I don't recall it being similar. It very well could be that I am paying much more close attention this time for obvious reasons.
Giving up next years #1 on a team that needs a ton is not a smart move, IMO. That's another high value pick that more than likely will be top ten at minimum.
Lawrence had less obvious avenues to criticism (he was on a better team, he had prototype size) and the other QBs that year were lesser prospects in some ways (not entirely, but none had the combination of production/traits that Daniels or Maye have. LAnce had barely played, Wilson was at BYU, Fields was pretty inconsistent, etc.)
I do think these 3 probably go 2,3,4 if they were in that draft.
BUT... I think with QBs it comes down to your evals, because elite QBs are very rare, and the difference it makes in your team if you get an extra 2-4 spots above average at QB can be huge. Would basically come down to... do you think Caleb can be a top 5-7 QB in the NFL more likely than the others, and at a high enough level you feel it's reasonably achievable? If so you don't care about losing a future 1st round WR or even tackle.
Yes the Patriots have a lot of needs, but... if they hit on an elite QB it changes things in a way hitting on anything else doesn't. KC is the obvious example to point to, they missed all over the place, they have/had all kinds of holes. They have the best QB in the league so it doesn't matter. If Caleb plays anywhere close to his ceiling, you can have a lot less at WR and be fine, you can regress some on defense and be fine, he can even cover for your line being a bit dodgy.
I doubt NE does it, I think a trade down is more likely, in part because I don't think CHI would do the outlined trade, they're really well positioned to take the shot at the best QB and still fill around him (2nd 1st, will likely get a day 2 pick for Fields, etc.).
Yep, I get all that and don't believe Caleb evals that much higher to give up next year's #1. I guess we'll see.
It should be noted that while DJ suggested that trade as one of several for the Williams, in his latest mock he suggests the Patriots will go the veteran stop-gap route and select MHJ with the third pick
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2024-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-four-quarterbacks-selected-in-first-eight-picks
https://www.nfl.com/news/daniel-jeremiah-2024-nfl-mock-draft-2-0-four-quarterbacks-selected-in-first-eight-picks
yeah, he notes in his intro, he doesn't do trades in his mocks until right before the draft. So what I would take out of that mock is that he doesn't think NE would take Daniels. When Daniels goes he again notes that he's probably only there because he doesn't do trades.
Doug Farrar loves Jaylen Daniels.
View: https://twitter.com/NFL_DougFarrar/status/1759924613088448858
View: https://twitter.com/NFL_DougFarrar/status/1760080409847869633
View: https://twitter.com/NFL_DougFarrar/status/1759924613088448858
View: https://twitter.com/NFL_DougFarrar/status/1760080409847869633
We need the Daniels hype train to slow down ASAP, I want him to be there when the Pats pick at #3 if nothing else lol.
I'm opposite. Keep pumping him so Pats get Maye.
That Wile E Coyote thing is hilarious, though.
Maye isn't a bad consolation prize IMO, I just hope they avoid Williams who strikes me as a headcase with questionable footwork and processing but all the natural talent in the world.
I think Williams has the biggest upside.
I think Daniels will likely make the biggest immediate impact.
I think Maye may end up being the best QB of the group when all is said and done.
But then again, I'm a guy who was high on Mac Jones when they drafted him. So................yeah.
I think Daniels will likely make the biggest immediate impact.
I think Maye may end up being the best QB of the group when all is said and done.
But then again, I'm a guy who was high on Mac Jones when they drafted him. So................yeah.
Projecting, like Josh Allen?
In his final 2 seasons at WYOMING, he had a comp% of 56% and had 44tds to 21ints. The best defense he played in 2016 was Nebraska, and he had 1tds and 5ints in that game (along with 2 fumbles and 1 lost). In 2017, he played Iowa (174 yards, no tds, 2 picks), Oregon (9-24, 64 yards, 0tds, 1 pick, 2 fumbles, 1 lost) and Boise St (12-27, 131 yards, 1td and 2 picks).
Allen in college, when he wasn't fumbling, he ran for 767 yards, 12tds and a ypc of 3.2. Maye is at 1,209 yards, 16tds and a 4.0ypc.
There really is no better comp to Maye than Allen, and Maye was better than he was at just about everything in college, against better competition. I'm not saying Maye will be better than Josh Allen, or even as good as he is in the pros, because at the end of the day, you have no idea until a guy actually shows up and plays in the NFL how they will respond, but everything the detractors say about Maye could have been said twice about Allen.