Offseason rumors

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Cellar-Door

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But can't you look at it as they think they might be getting both Imanaga and Yamamoto? That they are confident in their position to sign both and therefore didn't want to commit early to ERod?
Probably not, the way it is worded makes it sound less like they think they can get both, and much more like they only wanted ERod as a fallback if they got neither, and decided they'd rather chance getting none of the 3 than pay Erod now. If anything it makes it sound more like money might be a concern. They'll splash for Yamamoto maybe, but if they do they want to go cheap with the back of the rest of the rotation.
 

Mike473

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Jul 31, 2006
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Probably not, the way it is worded makes it sound less like they think they can get both, and much more like they only wanted ERod as a fallback if they got neither, and decided they'd rather chance getting none of the 3 than pay Erod now. If anything it makes it sound more like money might be a concern. They'll splash for Yamamoto maybe, but if they do they want to go cheap with the back of the rest of the rotation.
I hope so. It is hard to believe that after the past couple of seasons and Bloom's ultimate termination, they will continue along the same path. This team will get smoked in the division next year without some major changes. I feel the franchise has been rudderless for a while. But, this offseason is not over yet by any means. A big move could happen at anytime.
 

ElcaballitoMVP

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I agree with your general premise that the Yankees offer is much better than the Red Sox hypothetical one, but Grisham didn't have a negative value. If they thought that, they wouldn't have tendered him. He is expected to earn $5m this upcoming year & in his 4 years since joining the Padres he has been between 1.7 & 2.3 fWAR each season & according to Fangraphs has been worth between $13.3m & $18.3m each season. He's a very good defensive player & should have positive value on a $5m contract.
It's not that Grisham had negative value but getting his $5M off the books had value to SD. They were able to move $37M or so off their books and got a lot of cheap MLB ready starting pitching in return. I don't think the Sox would've been interested in adding Grisham and his LH bat to the lineup and he's probably slightly overpaid as a 4th OF, making the NY offer more enticing. He's also a good fit for NY where they can use him in CF to rotate Judge/Soto through DH and days off and be a late inning defensive replacement. The slight overpay for a 4th OF makes more sense for NY than it does BOS when you look at roster construction.

There has been a lot of talk here in SD this offseason that they would look to move Grisham because his offense has been so bad, slide Tatis to CF and sign a corner OF (Lee from Korea is mentioned quite a bit). This deal allows them to do that. If the Sox didn't want to take Grisham, it's just another reason why SD would prefer NY's offer to a Houck/Whitlock led package.
 

JM3

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It's not that Grisham had negative value but getting his $5M off the books had value to SD. They were able to move $37M or so off their books and got a lot of cheap MLB ready starting pitching in return. I don't think the Sox would've been interested in adding Grisham and his LH bat to the lineup and he's probably slightly overpaid as a 4th OF, making the NY offer more enticing. He's also a good fit for NY where they can use him in CF to rotate Judge/Soto through DH and days off and be a late inning defensive replacement. The slight overpay for a 4th OF makes more sense for NY than it does BOS when you look at roster construction.

There has been a lot of talk here in SD this offseason that they would look to move Grisham because his offense has been so bad, slide Tatis to CF and sign a corner OF (Lee from Korea is mentioned quite a bit). This deal allows them to do that. If the Sox didn't want to take Grisham, it's just another reason why SD would prefer NY's offer to a Houck/Whitlock led package.
Right, but they didn't have to trade Grisham in a Soto deal. They could have traded him to some random team for a flyer prospect, or traded him to the Yankees in a separate deal which didn't include Soto. The reason they tendered him is that they thought he would have positive value to another team. The Yankees didn't have to pay less in prospect capital because they put Grisham in the deal. They might have, hypothetically speaking, only agreed to put Brito instead of a lesser pitching prospect in because Grisham was in the deal.
 

nighthob

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Why fire Bloom if you are not planning to compete for another couple of years?
Bloom's trade record was spotty. While he made some good deals (the Vasquez trade, the trade for Schwarber) there were an equal number of real head scratchers (the awful Renfroe trade where Boston paid $14 million for a couple of prospects deep on Milwaukee's top prospect lists). While he occasionally made good calls on pitching, it wasn't a particular strength. So the time had come to move on.
 

beautokyo

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I think Yamamoto is going to have a handful of contract offers around 300 million and the deciding factor between them won't be about money.
If Boston gets to that table......showing the Video of Yoshida scootering his way to the park could make someone just scratch their head in a positive way.....safety in a big city. No one chasing ya......privacy. Just a thought.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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One of the flaws with BTV is that it's pretty goofy at tracking the valuations of young players who've lost a year to or are returning from injury.

I have no idea why Whitlock's value totally plummeted after his average-ish/hurt 2023 while Houck's apparently rose after his own.
BTV’s whole thing is about “surplus value.” They’re looking at what a player costs for the duration of whatever contract he’s playing under versus the anticipated on-field value of that player (some version of WAR multiplied by some dollar per WAR valuation).
So if Whitlock goes from being a potential 3 WAR per year starting g pitcher to a 1 WAR per year reliever, he loses a lot of value relative to his contract.
The theory behind the formula is sound. But the devil is in the details of the anticipated future value.
 

grepal

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Because they weren't able to match the raft of pitchers the Yankees gave up for one year of a guy who they could sign next winter simply with a boatload of money?
They could sign him for a boatload of money, but come on it has been years since we jumped into the deep end of FA pool. Our bo
Ig expenditures was the last supposedly good shortstop left. Overpaying by every report I read for a flawed Yoshida and dumpster diving for pitchers in the coming off an injury queue or the released by other teams bargain bin. I think Sale was the last big name we got here.
 

chawson

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Hernandez has never logged a positive dWAR. For his career, across the outfield, he's logged -24 Defensive Runs Saved and -24 Outs Above Average.
Statcast has him at +2 in Fielding Run Value over 1160 innings in RF last year. 0 (average) for range and +2 for his arm.
 

nvalvo

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Teo is top quartile in xSLG, exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit percentage, speed, and throwing arm. He's more than playable against righties (.256/.312/.460) and very good against lefties (.275/.329/.557).

I think he would be really solid choice to take on some DH/corner outfield PA.
 

kazuneko

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Teo is top quartile in xSLG, exit velocity, barrel rate, hard hit percentage, speed, and throwing arm. He's more than playable against righties (.256/.312/.460) and very good against lefties (.275/.329/.557).
I think he would be really solid choice to take on some DH/corner outfield PA.
How many of those is one team allowed to have?
To be clear, those are his career numbers and he hasn’t hit like that since the 21’ season. Last season his OPS was .741.
Defensively he had his best season last year, though his OAA was still only 0. He did have +2 run value due to his strong throwing arm, but that’s the only time in his career he’s had positive defensive value. For his career he has a -24 OAA. Considering how huge Fenway’s RF is he seems like a better candidate for LF then RF, but unfortunately the Sox have a lot of outfielders who fit that description and only one left field…
 

chawson

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I like Teoscar and that kind of power profile from the right side has been sorely needed the last few years. He was not helped by playing in Seattle (81 wRC+ at home vs. 126 away), which makes sense as it's the second-most offense-suppressing ballpark for RHB the last three years. He also finished really strong, with a 130 wRC+ over the last 2+ months.

He's 31, not old. The bat speed seems intact, but I'd would worry how that BB/K rate holds up. He's got a .21 BB/K rate over the last three seasons.

I'd love to believe he's a 130 wRC+/.350 wOBA guy for the next few years as he has been for most of the last three, but the problem is that there really aren't a lot of guys this century with that combination of low BB/K% and high ISO who've played at that level over their 28-30 seasons, let alone their 31-33 seasons. The closest comp may actually be Duvall, whose career has been nonlinear. But that profile is very similar to Nick Castellanos (the bad version, 2020 and 2022-23) and Khris Davis (a steady DH bat until he was suddenly done by age 31), and we're pretty close to Mark Trumbo, Michael Morse and Hunter Renfroe territory. You don't wanna give guys like that $45-50 million into their thirties.

I think I'd prefer Lourdes Gurriel on a multi-year deal.
 

bsj

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1,167 posts a few we still haven't made a significant move to improve our 2024 product. Hard to see a clear path out of another wasted season right now.
 

Yaz4Ever

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1,167 posts a few we still haven't made a significant move to improve our 2024 product. Hard to see a clear path out of another wasted season right now.
I keep seeing this ancillary moves discussed and think once Yamamoto is one of us, no one will complain about the Teoscar type non-needle movers. I look forward to that day.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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1,167 posts a few we still haven't made a significant move to improve our 2024 product. Hard to see a clear path out of another wasted season right now.
What's the magic number of posts that we have to stay under to improve the product?

I mean, you might not think it's going to happen, but it's incredibly easy to see a clear path. Sign Yamamoto, sign Imanaga, trade for Burnes, trade for Drury, sign Teo....the offseason is young and there are plenty of potential moves available. Should be fun to see how it plays out.
 

simplicio

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If only Breslow had signed Yamamoto before the offseason rumors SOSH thread reached 1100 posts we'd be contenders, but alas.
 

YTF

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1,167 posts a few we still haven't made a significant move to improve our 2024 product. Hard to see a clear path out of another wasted season right now.
Evidenty you missed the posts citing the date and the overall lack of movement thusfar. One major signing who didn't seem a good fit trade wise (2 if you count Nola who wasn't leaving Philly) and a few lessers.
 

sezwho

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1,167 posts a few we still haven't made a significant move to improve our 2024 product. Hard to see a clear path out of another wasted season right now.
I'm guessing this may be a bit tongue in cheek, but it always was (and is) going to be a rocky path to a good rotation, but there's already substantial difference in the field. At least on paper (no jinx!) there will be a bunch of Abreu and Rafaela, rested and ready Masataka and Story settled into DH & SS, another Devers peak year with the contract behind him, whatever Duran magic is able to hold onto from last year, and not to mention the fullness of Casas.

Without another move, though with admittedly some projection on our young OFs, this should be a really solid hitting team and potentially even + on defense. Maybe Duran added a sweet slider during his great year of development.
 

Mr. Stinky Esq.

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What are we even talking about? Everyone knows it takes at least 1,500 SoSH posts to earn the Significant Move reward.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/shohei-ohtani-rumors-imminent-blue-jays-dodgers.html

Apparently an Ohtani decision is coming soon (and Red Sox aren't mentioned, fwiw). Hopefully that will start to shake things loose in the market a little. Though Yamamoto might be the bigger domino, at least as far as the Red Sox and the starting pitching market are concerned.

My hope is that he ends up with LAD, SF or NYM just to keep him out of the AL. With only 5 playoff spots up for grabs (for the Red Sox) and them already being significantly behind Texas, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa Bay and the Yankees at the MLB level and (at least in pitching) a good bit behind Texas, Seattle, Toronto, Tampa and possibly NY (not sure after they moved Thorpe and Fitts) on the minor league pitching side, adding a talent like Ohtani would just widen that gap so significantly.

Should be interesting.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/12/shohei-ohtani-rumors-imminent-blue-jays-dodgers.html

Apparently an Ohtani decision is coming soon (and Red Sox aren't mentioned, fwiw). Hopefully that will start to shake things loose in the market a little. Though Yamamoto might be the bigger domino, at least as far as the Red Sox and the starting pitching market are concerned.

My hope is that he ends up with LAD, SF or NYM just to keep him out of the AL. With only 5 playoff spots up for grabs (for the Red Sox) and them already being significantly behind Texas, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore, Toronto, Tampa Bay and the Yankees at the MLB level and (at least in pitching) a good bit behind Texas, Seattle, Toronto, Tampa and possibly NY (not sure after they moved Thorpe and Fitts) on the minor league pitching side, adding a talent like Ohtani would just widen that gap so significantly.

Should be interesting.
Think you mean 4 playoff spots. The Sox can only win the AL East or one of the three wildcard spots, at least last I checked.
 

Big Papi's Mango Salsa

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Think you mean 4 playoff spots. The Sox can only win the AL East or one of the three wildcard spots, at least last I checked.
Fair point. I meant more in the line of Texas, Houston, Seattle, Baltimore, Tampa, NYY, Toronto and Boston are all competing for 5 spots and the Red Sox are a heck of a long way behind all of them so lets not make it even further.

The Red Sox are probably better than anyone in the AL Central, but who gives a crap about the AL Central, aside from the fact that someone has to make the playoffs.
 

soxhop411

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View: https://twitter.com/jaketodonnell/status/1733162921004282032

Jake brings up a good point here especially wrt to the Devers stuff.. the Sox FO rarely leaks its moves.... you could also use Yoshida as another example. I also believe that it was a DR based reporter who first reported about the sox contingent in the DR, and the local reporters here threw water on it at first before admitting they were wrong and that they were in fact in the DR

Lots of freaking out re: news of Cohen and a Mets contingent going to Japan to meet with Yamamoto. Sorry for being reasonable how do we know other teams including the Red Sox haven't done the same? So what if Mets people can't keep their mouths shut about this stuff?
Last December Red Sox ownership and all the important people in the front office flew to the DR to meet with Devers and present their contract offer to him. Zero details about that trip were reported until well after Devers signed.
 

Norm loves Vera

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I am seeing all over my x feed that Jays pitcher Kikuchi has reserved an entire upscale sushi restaurant for tonight near Rogers stadium. No one credible, just another rabbit hole fed by the flight rumor and the fact Kikuchi and Ohtani went to high school together.

Its been a few years, I forgot how fun/crazy/zany hot stove season can get.
 

BringBackMo

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1,167 posts a few we still haven't made a significant move to improve our 2024 product. Hard to see a clear path out of another wasted season right now.
Breslow is quite obviously not up to the job. Anything beyond 875 posts in a SOSH rumors thread without a major move is unacceptable and portends doom.
 

The Gray Eagle

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All the bandwidth trees that have been cleared over this story, and that's the first time I've heard this
Yusei, yes? I say no.
Yusei stop!
And I say go go go , Ohtani, to the west coast.
Don't know why Yusei, goodbye Ohtani go!
 

WayneHousieHOF

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1,167 posts a few we still haven't made a significant move to improve our 2024 product. Hard to see a clear path out of another wasted season right now.
Flex Pax still available! Some, they even waive the fees! Bricks not included though.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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I don't love the potential ripple effects of Ohtani to Toronto, if it happens. Makes YY to LA more likely, which in turn could shift the other big YY suitors to prioritize Imanaga, etc etc.
 
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