Offseason rumors
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Well I’m an idiot. Thanks for the correction.
I’d love to have one of their arms but it’s not going to be Miller or Gilbert. So do you give up a lot for Woo or Miller? It’s not immediately clear. They do need arms for beyond 2024 though. It’s bare.
According to what I have heard from Sumner, the board software is no longer able to do spelling filters.
So I guess if we're going to get rid of Kinley Jensan, Tristan Cassas, and Jerron Durran, it's on our inborn human processors....
I could benefit from this filter. I spelled it "Jensen" four times in one post.
I see what you did there.
I think it's likely the Jansen trade speculation and rumor is related to to the remaining starting pitching on the market. If there is an upgrade to SP at a price they like (ie Montgomery 4/110) then Jansen goes.
This would also be foolish in my opinion because if the Sox do sign a legitimate starter, keeping Jansen makes a lot more sense and should be what a team with money does.
Honestly, I think you're closer with the last line. I think if the Sox somehow do a complete 180 and acquire a legitimate starting pitcher to anchor the top half of the rotation, then it's much more likely Jansen and Martin are kept because lets just say something like:
Bello, Montgomery, Giolito, Pivetta and Crawford.
Jansen, Martin, Houck, Whiclock, the rest
All of a sudden you look at that and it's a pretty good rotation and a good bullpen.
If you don't acquire a legitimate SP, then Jansen and Martin are worthless to the Sox (beyond being trade assets) because the 2024 iteration of the team is going nowhere.
Snell to the Mariners has been lurking in the back of my mind for months, since hearing that he was interested in Seattle as his hometown team. Perhaps the Mariner's efforts to clear salary were in part to make room for a Snell signing. Although like others, they are probably waiting for Snell's price (or years) to come down.
The bigger question is how we match up with the Mariners if they do go this route? Would they be interested in Duran? Who else might they be interested in? They'd obviously be looking to compete this year, so I expect they're mostly looking for MLB-ready players, not prospects. Baltimore probably matches up much better than the Sox, if they're willing to move guys like Westburg or Kjerstad.
It could be interesting if the Mariners were looking to move Castillo so that they could better absorb Snell's salary. In that case, the Sox might be a better (or more willing) partner than Baltimore (although the O's certainly should be able to afford him).
The bigger question is how we match up with the Mariners if they do go this route? Would they be interested in Duran? Who else might they be interested in? They'd obviously be looking to compete this year, so I expect they're mostly looking for MLB-ready players, not prospects. Baltimore probably matches up much better than the Sox, if they're willing to move guys like Westburg or Kjerstad.
It could be interesting if the Mariners were looking to move Castillo so that they could better absorb Snell's salary. In that case, the Sox might be a better (or more willing) partner than Baltimore (although the O's certainly should be able to afford him).
Wasn't this the rumor way back in November? Snell wanted to go to Seattle and the Mariners were going to use their rotation depth to get some offensive help. Then they said they weren't going to trade any of their cheap younger starters, they didn't want to trade Castillo, and they were able to dump Robbie Ray. And they also needed to trim payroll because of issues with their TV deal. It's hard to see how they can improve the lineup, not hurt the rotation too much, and make it all cash-neutral.
Either Bowden is 3 months behind everyone else or he's heard something different.
I like Jansen a lot as a player but he's always seemed to me like a somewhat flippable asset since Bloom signed him, and especially now that Breslow has brought in a couple of MLB-ready hard throwing RHPs (Campbell, Slaten) to pair with our in-house closer options (Martin, Schreiber, Whitlock). Depends on the return of course but trading him doesn't seem to me like a punt as much as a good baseball move.
I think there is literally no chance they're dealing Castillo unless Baltimore offered up Holliday +, and even then, I don't think Seattle would do it.
Duran makes sense for them to patrol a big park next to Rodriguez. They could put him in LF and he'd probably be a pretty good defensive player there, especially with his arm mitigated in LF. They moved their closer (Seawald) to Arizona last year for their own version of Abreu (Dominic Canzone), but also of course moved Kelenic. They do have both Munoz and Brash in their bullpen, which is a nice place to start, though Munoz did have some struggles down the stretch last season when asked to close full time.
Something like Duran, Jansen and $16m to cover his salary for Woo might work for both teams (assuming Seattle is trying to sign Snell).
Kirby, Castillo, Snell, Giblert, Miller is still an absolutely filthy rotation. Duran helps their offense and defense in LF. Jansen closes for a year and allows Munoz and Brash more time to grow into the role.
Woo would be another version of Crawford, one that I'll call a little bit better since one posted his MLB numbers at age 23 (Woo) and the other at 27 (Crawford), but they're similar in terms of both look like really good bets to be SP4/5 types at worst, both could be more.
@Max Power it's Bowden, so nothing is out of the realm of possibility.
FWIW, BTV has Duran for Woo as a slight overpay (34 for Duran, 28.2 for Woo), so not sure whether or why we'd have to add Jansen and pay his full salary to get this done. It might be a question of whether Seattle likes Duran more than Westburg or Kjerstad.
To give up Duran, I'd also probably want to have a little more confidence than you seem to have that Woo is likely to at least be a mid-rotation guy rather than a back of the rotation guy or swingman. I'll trust the FO to make this determination.
As for the O's, there's no way they give up Holliday for Castillo, given Castillo's contract. While he may or may not be a better pitcher, that contract makes him less valuable than Kirby or Gilbert, especially to a team like the O's.
Young starting pitching is more value able than a question mark fringe center fielder. It’s just a supply demand thing.
It’s hard for me imagine Seattle couldn’t top a Durán offer from other clubs.
Right. Castillo is on a 4 year $24m per contract right now as a 31 year old. We'll see what Snell gets, but that will tell you about what his excess value is on the market.
We’ve spent a lot of time this offseason talking about Boston’s attractiveness to FAs. Meanwhile Jansen has spent the last year gushing like Chris Farley about how awesome it is to play here. And now he’s a flippable asset.
I’m not saying he shouldn’t be. Certainly near the deadline. Just funny that we have a free agent signing who LOVES playing here and we’re eager to ship him out of town.
I’m not saying he shouldn’t be. Certainly near the deadline. Just funny that we have a free agent signing who LOVES playing here and we’re eager to ship him out of town.
Well it started off as being a means to and end on signing free agents who better fit the current roster. But if they aren’t going to reallocate the funds then yea. Keep him. Love Kenley.
The literacy research suggests that we recognize words at normal reading speeds by looking at the top half of the word form, the first and last letters, and the length: So Marlins and Mariners are extremely likely to be confused, especially in presentations where an i looks like an l.
The fact that both are teams that we've scrutinized for the possibility of trading an outfielder for an SP only makes it tougher!
I definitely get it. Just kinda funny. There’s been a lot of “you can’t force people to sign here” and “Boston isn’t attractive to FAs” comments the past few months. And there’s ol’ KJ, just signing here of his own free will and slobbering over how much he loves playing at Fenway.
Now discussing a deal to bring back Jankowski... From what I have read they are going over CBT with Robertson signing. I get the impression that they couldn't come to terms so now the Rangers are pivoting.... but who knows with this off-season.
Depending on how the player feels (and I don't know, obviously) it could also be seen as doing right by him.
He was one of the more out-spoken players last year voicing disdain for the trade deadline (probably the clearly obvious understanding that the starting pitching wasn't good enough and that some should have been acquired at the trade deadline https://www.nbcsportsboston.com/mlb/boston-red-sox/red-sox-kenley-jansen-blasts-chaim-bloom-trade-deadline-inactivity/555348/).
If Breslow is considering dealing him, and approaches it with a discussion with the player of "Kenley, we love you here and Boston, and so does the city, but we're probably not going to be competing for much this year - would you be interested in playing for a winner this season with your track record in the playoffs?" I could certainly see that being a net positive for Boston, on top of the return.
Then it starts getting around the game that the team is at least trying to "do right" by it's veterans that they sign by sending them to play for something as opposed to wasting a year in last place.
Then you can go to "Relief Pitcher X" with the same mindset. "Here is more money than you're being offered elsewhere - AND if you pitch well and we still are outside of the playoffs, we'll try our best to trade you somewhere that you have a shot at a ring. Just like we did Jansen."
Just another way to look at it.
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Maybe Snell’s market bottoming out changes things but I’m still skeptical the Mariners trade any starters. They probably demand Anthony or Mayer even for a less proven guy like Woo, no?
View: https://twitter.com/circlingsports/status/1743418181056942284?s=46
That seems crazy to me. There’s a significant difference between Gilbert/Kirby and Miller/Woo in terms of prospect status. I mean no one would have suggested to ask for a top twenty prospect in return for Houck after his first partial season where he posted a 3:50 era in seventy innings, and Houck was a first round pick. Woo was a sixth round pick who greatly struggled in college, jumped strait from aa and had a low four era in similar innings. I understand we’re desperate for pitching but Im not sure how some of the M’s prospects got so hyped, you don’t hear that with Crawford who had a even better season.
With that all said, it'd be really dumb for Seattle to sign Snell and THEN look to trade if they're in a "we must trade" situation looking to get less than what they already have determined wouldn't be enough. This isn't happening.
It's still IMO two remaining teams with the means (despite what the Sox have said to the media) are just SF and Boston. I still think both players have said they have preferences and probably would go to either of their preferred teams at a lower cost but there's lines and from my reading, those teams are on the other side of those lines and aren't crossing.
I'm guessing something like: Montgomery wants to play for TX and would be fine for a 4 year $100M deal but TX is saying, no. They can do 4/$90M or something while Boston is saying..... hey.... we'll offer 5/$125!!! Boras is still trying to get TX to bump it's offer up but after the Robertson deal it's quite clear that they've moved on. Maybe San Diego or another team is there that I'm not seeing but all the big spenders have spent. Just two haven't.
It's still IMO two remaining teams with the means (despite what the Sox have said to the media) are just SF and Boston. I still think both players have said they have preferences and probably would go to either of their preferred teams at a lower cost but there's lines and from my reading, those teams are on the other side of those lines and aren't crossing.
I'm guessing something like: Montgomery wants to play for TX and would be fine for a 4 year $100M deal but TX is saying, no. They can do 4/$90M or something while Boston is saying..... hey.... we'll offer 5/$125!!! Boras is still trying to get TX to bump it's offer up but after the Robertson deal it's quite clear that they've moved on. Maybe San Diego or another team is there that I'm not seeing but all the big spenders have spent. Just two haven't.
A certain segment of this board that is disenchanted with the Red Sox ownership and front office has spent a lot of time this off-season talking about Boston's attractiveness to free agents. Another segment has continued to believe that the Sox have no trouble attracting free agents when they want to, so long as said free agents are not also coveted by the Dodgers and the Yankees.
Kenley Jansen is far from the only recent Red Sox signee who has raved about playing here and expressed a willingness to come back. Justin Turner and James Paxton are just two such examples. The Red Sox should make decisions about Jansen based solely upon how he fits with their overall strategy and team building plan.
Good luck with that. If that’s what Nick Pivetta is fetching on the open market, I hope Boston’s selling.
I can't imagine they'd demand someone in the ATM Machine range for Woo or BMiller.
ATM means (or should mean) you're talking Gilbert. I adore Gilbert, and even I am not 100% sure I'd want the Sox to offer Anthony there. I'd probably ultimately do it, but I don't know that I'd feel good about it.
To be fair, Nick Pivetta with 6 years of control and several of them pre-arb would be incredibly valuable (and there is no way the Sox would be selling him). Maybe not top 15 prospect valuable, but certainly a heck of a lot more valuable than Nick Yorke, MIguel Bleis and the like.
Have you seen Woo pitch? He’s REALLY good. IMO he’s already better than Bello. (BTW, Woo is 23; Crawford 28 by Opening Day).
His new sinker is great (see vid below). Ls were hitting him during the season so he added another pitch and was much better vs. them 2nd half. PitcherList has Woo as the 30th best SP for ‘24. Bello is 45th. Duran for Woo is never going to happen.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iH-0I02z694
Look at his Statcast page - Lots of RED. Avg. exit velo + hard-hit rates 82nd & 81st percentiles. xERA of 3.48.
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Honestly, Emerson Hancock might be worth looking into, and may be the most "gettable" of their pitchers. He's so blocked and his prospect status dropped a bit last year, but you may be able to get him without dipping into the ATM, and he'd have full pre-arb control. He's still a really good pitcher (and his mom and dad are fun to sit with during the game).
I must say that while I don't always agree with what you post, I have a great deal of appreciation for the time and work that you put into what you offer. My question here is isn't our need much greater than a # 4-5 starter. We've got those in spades. OK, perhaps a slight exaggeration, but isn't that part of the problem with the makeup of this team?
Thanks! (and same). If we all agreed all the time, the board would be very boring. Haha.
As to the needs of the Sox (two top half of the rotation starters to go along with Bello), I agree that neither Woo nor BMiller fit that need, certainly not right now.
I suppose the bigger question is if one thinks the Sox truly have an abundance of 4/5 starters. I don’t think they do (at least for the long term). Bello is a top half starter in my book and Crawford a bottom half. After that, everyone is an expiring contract (Giolito, Pivetta) or there are serious questions on if the players are actually capable starters or better suited as relief pitchers (and I personally think W, W and H are relievers being forced to start bc there aren’t better options, not bc they’re good).
I personally have Woo a bit ahead of Crawford (and Miller a bit behind him) with Houck after those three. Though I think there is then a huge gap down to Winckowski, Whitlock, and whatever else assorted dreck (aside from Fitts) that will be in Worcester’s rotation (and whatever dreck will be in Portland’s aside from Gonzalez).
The bigger thing though is that I think the Sox are in a pretty good spot for decent OFs under long term control. Yoshida is overpaid, but a good hitter and certainly a capable MLB starting bat. Then there are a lot of “maybes” in MLB and the high minors (Duran, Rafaela, Abreu, Anthony), but I feel MUCH better about those 4 as capable starting OFs than let’s say Houck, Winckowski, Whitlock and Fitts as capable SPs.
If B&B had long term control of Bello, Crawford, Woo, Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski and Fitts, I think the odds of them building a rotation go up dramatically. Plus, I’d bet they get two top half of a rotation starters from them (I’d bet on Bello and Woo) and two bottom half (Crawford and Fitts).
Moving Jansen makes sense because both Whitlock and Houck seem much better suited as bullpen aces than starters, in my opinion.
But Bello, Woo, Crawford is a nice long term start to the rotation.
Houck, Whitlock, Winckowski is a nice start to the bullpen.
My $.02 -- kind of responding to @YTF -- is that these starter slots are a bit too cute sometimes? The Red Sox have a somewhat unique need for consistent eating of innings and for starter health, which will have perhaps a fairly large beneficial impact to the staff that we needn't worry how to order our starters. Or put another way, I take a holistic view of what they need and where they can go, rather than viewing the players separately on their merits. The way roles have changed is the reason, guys going max effort for shorter stints, followed by an army of relievers also doing the same, adding up to a lot of good innings. But that still only works if your starters can go 5+ consistently.
No rumor at all, but I’ve been wondering why there isn’t more interest in Ryu. He pitched well for Toronto, and he’ll be further removed from the TJS next year. I think he’s a decent bet for innings, at the very least, and probably won’t require a multi-year commitment, and, while I know I’ll never win this battle, I’d frankly rather have him than a certain left-handed Canadian.
Ah, shit. I missed that he went down with another shoulder injury this fall. Carry on.
I mean, Ryu has a total of 79 innings the last two seasons. I wouldn't call that a good bet for innings.
It's certainly a bet, and given the Sox commitment to... whatever this off-season is, he may end up being the one they find most palatable financially.
He's also going to be 37 before the season starts and many of his stats (k/9 and FIP notably) very much appear to be declining if not nosediving.
There was a TJS in there, he came back in acceptable shape from that. The season before his surgery he was at nearly 170.
100% agree. Ryu came back last August from Tommy John surgery and allowed two or fewer runs in eight of his 11 starts. Notably, he was back pitching 13+ months after his surgery, with the general belief that full recovery takes closer to 18 months. In 52 innings, Ryu had a 3.46 ERA (123 ERA+)with a 3.85 expected ERA. He'll be 37 and his fastball velocity was down, but, he's never had an overpowering fastball and he knows how to pitch. Ranks eighth among active pitchers with a 3.27 career ERA (1,000 innings minimum).
I know, but then look at 2016 and 2018 where he made a total 17 starts. I'm just saying he's certainly not a good bet for innings in my book, but definitions may differ, and that's ok. He's a coin flip.
He may very well be this year's Wacha. And I'd be thrilled to be wrong.
Ryu is likely sign a 1 yr deal, has good numbers when healthy, is AL East tested, seems to know how to pitch without overpowering stuff, and is a lefty, which this staff lacks. I’d much rather see him as a 4/5 starter which would push the Houck-Whitlock-Winckowski crew to make up a pretty darn bullpen. Much better than the openers we sent out there twice a week for about two months last year, IMO
One of the reasons pitchers don't love signing here is because it's an extreme hitters' park in an elite offensive division. Their numbers don't look quite as good for future contracts (or possibly for career/legacy reasons). Not especially something Kenley's got to worry about at this point in his career.
That said, he's still very good and quite a likable character, and I'm happy to keep him around. Just speculating, because it seems pretty normal for a new CBO/GM to trade guys on one-year contracts for long-term players (which Breslow did twice in his first six weeks on the job. That seemed like an accepted strategy around here before people were scandalized by a report that we weren’t going to trade one of our Top 50 prospects for one year of Corbin Burnes.
I agree with you which is why I wrote that last line. I don't believe the FO is thinking that way however. I'd love to be wrong.
Evan Grant, Rangers beat writer for the Dallas Morning News, doesn’t think Montgomery is going back to Texas, FWIW.
“Listen, there’s reason to think that Jordan is waiting for the situation to be sorted through and that he’d like to come back to the Rangers — and I think they’d like him to come back. But I think in terms of talking about a 25 million dollar contract for a four- or five-year, probably maybe even a six-year commitment with him, I think this team would have acted already on that.
I don’t think it’s ultimately gonna happen, and I think that the Rangers’ perspective here is they’ve got a really good group of starters that will be ready, they believe, in the second half, in deGrom, Scherzer and Tyler Mahle. They feel like they’ve got a rotation going into the season and that it is time — it’s past time, actually — for their minor league system to start producing some contributors.”
“Listen, there’s reason to think that Jordan is waiting for the situation to be sorted through and that he’d like to come back to the Rangers — and I think they’d like him to come back. But I think in terms of talking about a 25 million dollar contract for a four- or five-year, probably maybe even a six-year commitment with him, I think this team would have acted already on that.
I don’t think it’s ultimately gonna happen, and I think that the Rangers’ perspective here is they’ve got a really good group of starters that will be ready, they believe, in the second half, in deGrom, Scherzer and Tyler Mahle. They feel like they’ve got a rotation going into the season and that it is time — it’s past time, actually — for their minor league system to start producing some contributors.”
View: https://twitter.com/bossportsgordo/status/1751282591322247419?s=46
Dumping would be malpractice. The upside is so much greater than what he’s currently valued at.
Keep him. Let him thrive.
Dumping would be malpractice. The upside is so much greater than what he’s currently valued at.
Keep him. Let him thrive.
Especially when we had a terrific player with that name for a few years. First time I saw Jensen, fleetingly, I thought why are they talking about Jackie.
I posted this in another thread but probably suited for this one as well.
Who is drafting the SoSH apology letter to Masslive?
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