Offseason rumors

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Petagine in a Bottle

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Do the Red Sox really have a glut of OF?

Yoshida
Duran
O’Neill
Abreu
Refsnyder
Rafaela

Rafaela and Abreu could easily start the year in AAA. Refsnyder is fungible. Yoshida should be DH.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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I don't understand that argument. We have two holes currently: DH and corner IF backup. Turner can fill both as a good everyday hitter. Dalbec can fill both as a bad everyday hitter. "rotating through" just means Masa DHing most of the time (cause let's be real, Casas and Devers are our guys on the corners) and then you need another LF to cover his spot unless you're banking on all of O'Neill, Abreu and Duran being adequate everyday guys, but you still have to keep Dalbec around cause you haven't plugged the corner backup hole. That sounds like a mess to me.
Because Turner is 39, my guess is that he wants a two-year deal, his defensive skills have diminished and is probably unable to match the same production numbers that he reached last year.

Justin Turner is the opposite of players that this team should sign.
 

simplicio

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But again, Yoshida DH means you either need another OF to replace him or you're betting on all those guys to be not terrible hitters, and there's nowhere close to enough evidence to support that.

Abreu has a small sample and looked good but only against RHP.
Duran looked good but only when his BABIP was around .400.
O'Neill has been battling injuries for medium performance two years running.
Rafaela's bat is somewhere between total unknown and wishful thinking.
Refsnyder is a known quantity and that quantity is good vs LHP and awful otherwise.

Yoshida DH gives you this bench:
McGuire
Refsnyder
Reyes
Dalbec

With Rafaela in AAA. That lineup feels like about 3.5 guys I'd trust to hit major league pitching and a whole lot of thoughts and prayers.
 

SouthernBoSox

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But again, Yoshida DH means you either need another OF to replace him or you're betting on all those guys to be not terrible hitters, and there's nowhere close to enough evidence to support that.

Abreu has a small sample and looked good but only against RHP.
Duran looked good but only when his BABIP was around .400.
O'Neill has been battling injuries for medium performance two years running.
Rafaela's bat is somewhere between total unknown and wishful thinking.
Refsnyder is a known quantity and that quantity is good vs LHP and awful otherwise.

Yoshida DH gives you this bench:
McGuire
Refsnyder
Reyes
Dalbec

With Rafaela in AAA. That lineup feels like about 3.5 guys I'd trust to hit major league pitching and a whole lot of thoughts and prayers.
I just don't think people understand that as of right now Bobby Dalbec is getting 250 at bats. People get hurt. Back ups play.

Someone on this roster is going to back up first base and hit right handed. I'd rather it be someone good rather than someone horrible.

Yoshida and Turner make a ton of sense due to both most likely needing more time off. Rotating them at DH/LF/1B would be a good idea in general.
 

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Who do you think they should sign to fill the role needed?
I'm not sure who I'd sign, TBH probably no one at this point. The market has shrunk and they probably should have signed/traded for someone to take Turner's spot weeks ago.

My take is that the FO doesn't think that this team is worth investing in. So either leave that spot open for someone to impress in Spring Training and if it comes up empty, comb through the waiver wire at the end of ST and hope you can catch lightning in a bottle with a recently released player. I think that if the Sox were one or two players away, bring Turner back and see if he has something makes sense. But they're not and if you want to save money (which is something that the FO is keen on doing) you don't need to pay Turner what he wants for diminishing skills at a spot that's ultimately not that important.

And I'd be surprised if he takes a one-year deal again. My guess is that he felt that he "proved" in 2023 that he still has it and wants a two-year deal, or at least a one-year deal with a player option. Turner had a boffo year last year, but I don't think he proved anything other than that he staved off the inevitable for another season. Do you want to take the gamble that he can do that again? You hit 38, 39, 40 and your skills drop quickly.
 

RS2004foreever

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But again, Yoshida DH means you either need another OF to replace him or you're betting on all those guys to be not terrible hitters, and there's nowhere close to enough evidence to support that.

Abreu has a small sample and looked good but only against RHP.
Duran looked good but only when his BABIP was around .400.
O'Neill has been battling injuries for medium performance two years running.
Rafaela's bat is somewhere between total unknown and wishful thinking.
Refsnyder is a known quantity and that quantity is good vs LHP and awful otherwise.

Yoshida DH gives you this bench:
McGuire
Refsnyder
Reyes
Dalbec

With Rafaela in AAA. That lineup feels like about 3.5 guys I'd trust to hit major league pitching and a whole lot of thoughts and prayers.
I like Turner - easy guy to root for. Whether he makes sense I don't know. Duvall has battled injuries as well. Part of me wants to go with Duran/Abreau and see what we have. But that lineup is not as good enough. Maybe they score as many runs as last year (Grissom+Story) but it doesn't feel like they will be better.
 

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I'm not sure who I'd sign, TBH probably no one at this point. The market has shrunk and they probably should have signed/traded for someone to take Turner's spot weeks ago.

My take is that the FO doesn't think that this team is worth investing in. So either leave that spot open for someone to impress in Spring Training and if it comes up empty, comb through the waiver wire at the end of ST and hope you can catch lightning in a bottle with a recently released player. I think that if the Sox were one or two players away, bring Turner back and see if he has something makes sense. But they're not and if you want to save money (which is something that the FO is keen on doing) you don't need to pay Turner what he wants for diminishing skills at a spot that's ultimately not that important.

And I'd be surprised if he takes a one-year deal again. My guess is that he felt that he "proved" in 2023 that he still has it and wants a two-year deal, or at least a one-year deal with a player option. Turner had a boffo year last year, but I don't think he proved anything other than that he staved off the inevitable for another season. Do you want to take the gamble that he can do that again? You hit 38, 39, 40 and your skills drop quickly.
His 2021, 2022, and 2023 seasons were basically identical. I don't see how he would think he's in a better bargaining position now than he was last year.
 

moondog80

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Well, strictly speaking Turner did sign a two year deal last time around. I'm sure he'll ask for a similar deal again, but we'll see what he actually gets.
 

YTF

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Do the Red Sox really have a glut of OF?

Yoshida
Duran
O’Neill
Abreu
Refsnyder
Rafaela

Rafaela and Abreu could easily start the year in AAA. Refsnyder is fungible. Yoshida should be DH.
Yoshida's a DH, but if you need to play him in the field it's going to be in the outfield. Other than Rafaela, every other OF on the roster is strictly an OF (RFsnyder in a pinch I guess) so it is getting a bit crowded out there. As mentioned, there are options with some of these guys and always the possibility of a trade. I think the only givens at this point are Yoshida and O'Neill both for reasons that you mentioned and I still think Breslow deals one of the others to augment a trade.
 

jbupstate

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I understand what you are saying here but at the same time. What right handed hitter on this team do you feeling comfortable projecting to put up a 114 OPS+ ?
I would not tie myself to an aging and more expensive Turner when I have a guy in house with these stats -

vs LHP
352 career plate appearances
.855 OPS
129 OPS+
inexpensive
some power
Positional versatility
 

nvalvo

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With the present personnel, here's how I would aim to parcel things out among the non-catchers, rounded to a 160-game season for simplicity, and with the understanding that injuries inevitably blow these things up:

By Position

DH
: 70 games from Yoshida, 20 games from Devers, 20 games from Abreu/Dalbec, 10 games from Casas, 20 games from Story, 5 games from O'Neill, 5 games from Duran, 10 games from Grissom.
LF: 70 games from Yoshida, 70 games from Duran, 20 games from Refsnyder.
CF: 65 games from O'Neill, 65 games from Duran, 30 games from Rafaela.
RF: 70 games from O'Neill, 50 games from Rafaela, 30 games from Abreu, 10 games from Refsnyder.
3B: 140 games from Devers, 10 from games from Dalbec, 10 games from Reyes.
1B: 140 games from Casas, 20 from games from Dalbec.
SS: 120 games from Story, 30 games from Rafaela, 10 games from Reyes.
2B: 140 games from Grissom, 20 games from Rafaela.

By Player

Devers
: 160 games, 140 at 3B, 20 at DH.
Casas: 150 games, 140 at 1B, 10 at DH.
Grissom: 140 games, 130 at 2B, 10 at DH.
Yoshida: 140 games, 80 at DH, 60 in LF. Set things up so that he DHs ~2/3 of his games on on the road, and plays LF ~2/3 of his games at Fenway.
Story: 140 games, 120 at SS, 20 at DH.
O'Neill: 140 games, 70 in RF, 65 in CF, 5 at DH.
Duran: 140 games, 70 in LF, 65 in CF, 5 at DH.
Rafaela: 130 games, 50 in RF, 30 in CF, 30 at SS, 20 at 2B.
Reyes: 50 games, 20 at 2B, 20 at 1B, 10 at 3B, 10 at SS.
Refsnyder: 30 games, 20 in LF, 10 in RF.
The Abreu/Dalbec Roster Spot: 70 games, 30 in RF, 20 at DH, 10 at 3B, 10 at 1B. If everyone's healthy, one of these guys is in Worcester at any given time.

The disposition of the Abreu/Dalbec roster spot may occasionally press Refsnyder into a few 1B/DH innings or Grissom or Rafaela into a few frames at 3B. The goal here is to give everyone ample time off except Devers and Casas, which will hopefully keep some of our durability question marks (e.g. Yoshida, Story, and O'Neill) at peak performance.

We could add another RH bat if a good one fit the budget, but it would come at the cost of playing time for Rafaela, principally. So I would decide on that on the basis of what we think about his development. If we want him to get another few months in AAA, then sure: ink Tommy Pham or Adam Duvall. If we want to reap the rewards of Rafaela's defensive play from April on, on the reasoning that he doesn't have a ton to prove in AAA (after all, he hit .302/.349/.520 with a 21% K rate in 485 PA in AAA last year), then we're probably set, at least pending a trade.
 

Rice4HOF

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I would not tie myself to an aging and more expensive Turner when I have a guy in house with these stats -

vs LHP
352 career plate appearances
.855 OPS
129 OPS+
inexpensive
some power
Positional versatility
1. You are misundersstanding the tOPS+ column on baseball ref. His 129 OPS+ is relative to his left/right side, not to the league. In other words, an .855 OPS ≠ 129 OPS+ (although back of envelope calculations tell me it might not be far off, maybe closer to 120-125).
2. More importantly, here are Bobby's numbers since the end of the 2021 season vs LHP:
134 PA
.772 OPS
So most of his damage was done in his early seasons, as can be seen more clearly by looking at his season by season OPS vs lefties:
2020 - 1.062
2021 - .877
2022 - .755
2023 - .855 in *checks notes* 20 at bats

There's a very clear pattern here. And he is completely unusable against RHP.
 

twibnotes

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I’d give his spot (and Duvall’s) to someone younger. Leadership on last place teams is overrated. Yoshida and Abreu could replace and O’Neil might surprise.

Forgot about Grissom and Story also…
i want his leadership for the young guys to learn from
 

chrisfont9

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With the present personnel, here's how I would aim to parcel things out among the non-catchers, rounded to a 160-game season for simplicity, and with the understanding that injuries inevitably blow these things up:

By Position

DH
: 70 games from Yoshida, 20 games from Devers, 20 games from Abreu/Dalbec, 10 games from Casas, 20 games from Story, 5 games from O'Neill, 5 games from Duran, 10 games from Grissom.
LF: 70 games from Yoshida, 70 games from Duran, 20 games from Refsnyder.
CF: 65 games from O'Neill, 65 games from Duran, 30 games from Rafaela.
RF: 70 games from O'Neill, 50 games from Rafaela, 30 games from Abreu, 10 games from Refsnyder.
3B: 140 games from Devers, 10 from games from Dalbec, 10 games from Reyes.
1B: 140 games from Casas, 20 from games from Dalbec.
SS: 120 games from Story, 30 games from Rafaela, 10 games from Reyes.
2B: 140 games from Grissom, 20 games from Rafaela.

By Player

Devers
: 160 games, 140 at 3B, 20 at DH.
Casas: 150 games, 140 at 1B, 10 at DH.
Grissom: 140 games, 130 at 2B, 10 at DH.
Yoshida: 140 games, 80 at DH, 60 in LF. Set things up so that he DHs ~2/3 of his games on on the road, and plays LF ~2/3 of his games at Fenway.
Story: 140 games, 120 at SS, 20 at DH.
O'Neill: 140 games, 70 in RF, 65 in CF, 5 at DH.
Duran: 140 games, 70 in LF, 65 in CF, 5 at DH.
Rafaela: 130 games, 50 in RF, 30 in CF, 30 at SS, 20 at 2B.
Reyes: 50 games, 20 at 2B, 20 at 1B, 10 at 3B, 10 at SS.
Refsnyder: 30 games, 20 in LF, 10 in RF.
The Abreu/Dalbec Roster Spot: 70 games, 30 in RF, 20 at DH, 10 at 3B, 10 at 1B. If everyone's healthy, one of these guys is in Worcester at any given time.

The disposition of the Abreu/Dalbec roster spot may occasionally press Refsnyder into a few 1B/DH innings or Grissom or Rafaela into a few frames at 3B. The goal here is to give everyone ample time off except Devers and Casas, which will hopefully keep some of our durability question marks (e.g. Yoshida, Story, and O'Neill) at peak performance.

We could add another RH bat if a good one fit the budget, but it would come at the cost of playing time for Rafaela, principally. So I would decide on that on the basis of what we think about his development. If we want him to get another few months in AAA, then sure: ink Tommy Pham or Adam Duvall. If we want to reap the rewards of Rafaela's defensive play from April on, on the reasoning that he doesn't have a ton to prove in AAA (after all, he hit .302/.349/.520 with a 21% K rate in 485 PA in AAA last year), then we're probably set, at least pending a trade.
I still don't dislike the Dalbec usage. We know what he is, but he has a career 129 OPS+ (even with his bad K rate) vs LHPs, so for that minimal role, the fact that he hits for power makes him useful at a low cost.
 

simplicio

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It's not as easy to hide someone from RHP as you'd like to believe. Refsnyder had a 133 wrc+ vs LHP and 31 vs RHP last year. He still had 40% of his PA against them.

The cost is the roster slot.
 

nvalvo

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I still don't dislike the Dalbec usage. We know what he is, but he has a career 129 OPS+ (even with his bad K rate) vs LHPs, so for that minimal role, the fact that he hits for power makes him useful at a low cost.
It's not as easy to hide someone from RHP as you'd like to believe. Refsnyder had a 133 wrc+ vs LHP and 31 vs RHP last year. He still had 40% of his PA against them.

The cost is the roster slot.
Dalbec may not be good, but he has options and is an actual major league player. As long as he has options, he's valuable as 40-man depth. As soon as he is out of options — likely at the end of this season — the sand is almost out of that particular hour glass.

Simplicio is right that the cost is the roster spot, but if we replace him with an FA, we lose some of the roster flexibility that comes from his option.
 

RS2004foreever

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Hicks to the Angels.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Per a prior rumor Duvall was down to the Red Sox and the Angels. I wonder this the Angels are still interested. May mean a reunion with Duvall is more likely. Sign Duvall for what he made last year and the Red Sox would be at 197 (191 currently at COTS).
Still room for Montgomery I would think (but not Snell).
 

A Bad Man

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Hicks to the Angels.
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/

Per a prior rumor Duvall was down to the Red Sox and the Angels. I wonder this the Angels are still interested. May mean a reunion with Duvall is more likely. Sign Duvall for what he made last year and the Red Sox would be at 197 (191 currently at COTS).
Still room for Montgomery I would think (but not Snell).
Payroll currently estimated at $201.88 m
 

chrisfont9

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It's not as easy to hide someone from RHP as you'd like to believe. Refsnyder had a 133 wrc+ vs LHP and 31 vs RHP last year. He still had 40% of his PA against them.

The cost is the roster slot.
Sure, but we are talking about a platoon player, someone you can sit 4-5 days a week without a second thought. He can field a few spots in a pinch. Totally disposable if a better player comes along, but I'm not against it.

Turner as another assistant hitting coach is definitely A Thing, though, not unlike JD Martinez.
I guess. I'm never totally sure what to make of this stuff. They know the fans love to hear this about older players. Can't hurt though.
 

twibnotes

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We also missed the leadership of Xander last year. I’m sure the Padres were glad it pulled them through.
I’m not advocating that they bring on turner so his leadership helps them win next year. This team is rebuilding - I think he’s a guy you want young guys to learn from for the long-term benefit of the team
 

chrisfont9

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Trade per Mark Feinsand

The Twins will receive RHP Anthony DeSclafani and RHP Justin Topa along with prospects OF Gabriel Gonzalez (M’s No. 3 and MLB No. 66 per
@MLBPipeline ) and RHP Darren Bowen from the Mariners in the deal for Jorge Polanco, per source. Twins also getting cash in the trade.


View: https://twitter.com/Feinsand/status/1752139692974186709
This sounds like a lot but the folks at Lookout Landing have a good case for why it's a great deal for the Mariners.
https://www.lookoutlanding.com/2024/1/29/24055190/seattle-mariners-acquire-2b-jorge-polanco-from-minnesota-twins
 

simplicio

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Sure, but we are talking about a platoon player, someone you can sit 4-5 days a week without a second thought. He can field a few spots in a pinch. Totally disposable if a better player comes along, but I'm not against it.
The thing is the OF needs a platoon player (Verdugo through last year, Abreu this year if he's starting). Casas and Devers both hit LHP just fine so Dalbec is really just limiting when it's best to rest them.
 

chawson

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I don’t see a role for Dalbec on the ‘24 team. His pinch-hitting utility vs. LHP is diminished because we’ve got two of the game’s better options for at that in Refsnyder and O’Neill. And he’s a bad option for a platoon DH because the guy he’d ostensibly be platooning with for defensive reasons — Yoshida — handles LHP fine.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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At this point, we are looking at stuff that will be worked out in spring training. However, if Rafaela makes the team, I don't see a need for Refsnyder to be hanging around for very limited duty. I'd rather see what Abreu could do with another 100 PAs. Yes, Ref is RH, but I can't see too many times when you would have all three RH outfielders starting.
 

RS2004foreever

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Payroll currently estimated at $201.88 m
If Redsox Payrolls is right (201) instead of Cots 191 then the Sox have $24 million left to spend as much as they did in 2023. That means if $225 is a hard cap (no reason it should be) there isn't room for Duvall + Montgomery. Probably means Lorenzen or Ryu (I don't want Clevinger).
 

ookami7m

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Turner to the Jays for those who don’t want to click that link to the artist formerly known as twitter
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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And a follow up to that Tweet

Source: Justin Turner's 1-year deal with Toronto has a $13 million base salary with $1.5 million in roster and performance bonuses.
 

SouthernBoSox

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Boy, I wish the Sox had matched that. I mean it's not perfect but its impossible to say he doesn't improve the roster on a 1 year deal

Right now Bobby Dalbec is getting 250 at bats and you are a squeaky Casas shoulder away from 400.
 

cantor44

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If they sign Duvall (or, Soler, who somehow got lost in the shuffle) there is an absolute glut in the outfield. And at present Refsynder is the only person who might back up first, unless Dalbec makes the team, so maybe you gotta keep him around. I mean Duvall/Yoshida/Duran/Abreu/O'Neill/Refsynder/Rafaela ....Seems to me one dude has to start in AAA and one has to get traded. Obviously Abreu or Rafaela for the former and Yoshida or Duran for the latter ...Or, both Abreu and Rafaela start in AAA.
 

RS2004foreever

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I liked Turner. No reason to keep him in the end if money can be more efficiently spent elsewhere. But the Jays did not have to offer him a second year.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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Still plenty of guys left, and it’s not even Valentine’s Day yet. Or something.

Disappointing to see guys they were supposedly talking to sign reasonable deals elsewhere. Then again, is there a compelling reason to want to play for the Boston Red Sox right now?
 

SouthernBoSox

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I just don't see any free agent that makes at this point. Soler can't play first. You don't need an outfielder.

Maybe the make a move for Harold Ramirez? I don't know. There isn't much to be inspired from right now with this group.
 

soxin6

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I liked Turner. No reason to keep him in the end if money can be more efficiently spent elsewhere. But the Jays did not have to offer him a second year.
And by elsewhere you mean not on the Red Sox? There is no indications that anyone significant is going to be added to this roster before spring training begins.
 

chawson

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I like Turner quite a bit, but he made more sense last year when Casas wasn't established. Devers is rather quietly an ironman (9th most games played since 2019), so we don't need him much at 3B either.

There's always an injury threat anywhere but Casas has arrived. We don't especially need the 3B/1B/DH type like we did last year, and we don't need to spend a bunch on a backup 1B. We need a big right-handed bat to DH. Soler is the obvious one now, but J.D. Martinez still needs a home. There are still some potential trade candidates too, like Josh Bell, Jonathan India, or Brandon Drury.
 

SouthernBoSox

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If the Sox don't think its worth matching that salary for Turner, what the hell is going on?
Something has happened. We don't know what but there is no question something has changed. When you see good players, who fill roster needs, signing 1 year deals its fair to wonder what's going on.
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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I like Turner quite a bit, but he made more sense last year when Casas wasn't established. Devers is rather quietly an ironman (9th most games played since 2019), so we don't need him much at 3B either.

There's always an injury threat anywhere but Casas has arrived. We don't especially need the 3B/1B/DH type like we did last year, and we don't need to spend a bunch on a backup 1B. We need a big right-handed bat to DH. Soler is the obvious one now, but J.D. Martinez still needs a home. There are still some potential trade candidates too, like Josh Bell, Jonathan India, or Brandon Drury.
They were very explicit about wanting to add a versatile RH bat who could play multiple positions. Any sense of who that could be?
 
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