Tomorrow? Probably not. But if you never do (especially when your staff's words and actions are all over the place), there you go. Kraft was given as a great example and is also in this market.
Offseason rumors
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Sure, but if Snell gets $300M, would you really want him at that cost? I know it’s not our money, but he has issues and is he really “worth” that type of contract to the Sox? IE are they really a Blake Snell signing away from being WS contenders? Sure it would help, and maybe I’m just not that high on Snell, but if those $300M rumors are remotely accurate I’d pass.
What $300m rumors? He was rumored to be "asking for $270m" — I mean, so am I — and the only offer we heard about was for $150m, from NYY, and we've heard conflicting reports on whether it still stands. Journalists have speculated that SF and Anaheim are interested, but I haven't seen anything sourced with any specificity.
I certainly agree that giving Blake Snell $300m would be GM malpractice: the ceiling is sky high, but the floor is quite low. If that were a profile we wanted, we had it in Chris Sale.
Here is a combined ranking, by rWAR, of all of Blake Snell and Kutter Crawford's seasons.
2018 Snell 7.1
2023 Snell 6.0
2020 Snell 1.0 (60 games amortizes out to 2.7)
2023 Crawford 2.5
2022 Snell 2.1
2021 Snell 1.4
2019 Snell 1.4
2017 Snell 1.3
2016 Snell 0.8
It's not hard to imagine a Snell signing making the team worse by displacing a better pitcher; he could also be a legitimate ace. I can see why a huge deal hasn't materialized for him yet.
Also you probably aren't swinging a Cease trade or some other "ace" from a team in sell mode. If you spend the money on Snell, you aren't paying the prospect cost for an expiring contract that you can no longer afford to extend. So choose your quick fixes carefully.
I guess one option could be to audition our various youngish guys in the rotation in the first half, and then acquire a SP at the deadline (such as one of the much-discussed trade targets from the White Sox, Mariners, or Marlins) if it makes sense with where the team sits.
Not my first, second, or third choice, but it could be a path that balances giving chances to the young guys with actually trying to win. It also gives a chance for guys like Yorke, Bleis and Mayer to at least provisionally answer some questions about their value. The obvious downside is that we could get buried in the first half.
You didn’t mention one very important thing….its just money when you sign Snell. With Cease you trade good young players
Also, the Sox should have the money to sign two big starting pitchers so your point should be moot. Its unfortunate that it’s not
Just have to put in my 2 cents-
It seems that most of us really like the moves that have been made so far. They've been exciting and bold, if nothing else. If (I know it's a big if) the sox were to sign Monty, most would agree that this was a very good off season. Like, at least a B (floor) and maybe an A- (ceiling!). So maybe, just maybe, the folks in charge guessed back in october that the market on him would fall by march. Maybe this is just wishful thinking (that the sox intend to sign Monty) but, as some of you have suggested, maybe we (and included in "we" is Raffy, Pedey, Kenley, and everyone else) should hold off on our judgement until the off season in done. There is still an inning or so left.
It seems that most of us really like the moves that have been made so far. They've been exciting and bold, if nothing else. If (I know it's a big if) the sox were to sign Monty, most would agree that this was a very good off season. Like, at least a B (floor) and maybe an A- (ceiling!). So maybe, just maybe, the folks in charge guessed back in october that the market on him would fall by march. Maybe this is just wishful thinking (that the sox intend to sign Monty) but, as some of you have suggested, maybe we (and included in "we" is Raffy, Pedey, Kenley, and everyone else) should hold off on our judgement until the off season in done. There is still an inning or so left.
As someone said above, this is what happens when you constantly bullshit your customers. We’re all adults here so we know we’re never going to get the unvarnished truth but I mean when someone like Werner goes on about how “Actually, Fenway IS affordable! We have plenty of reduced prices for students!”
The only reaction is fuck and off. There’s a lot of people who can’t go to a game with their family anymore, it’s too expensive so don’t give us that shit about how Fenway is accessible.
People aren’t idiots and they shouldn’t be treated as such. By sending Kennedy or Werner out to do his work, Henry is treating us like idiots. He’s the boss. He’s the one that signs the checks. What’s his vision for this team? How does he see them shaking out? Why has he changed his philosophy?
He’s not a sitting President being asked for this country’s secrets. He owns a fucking baseball team and his customers have questions for him
It’s not about soothing my psyche. It’s more about accountability.
When the players make a mistake in the field, they’re held accountable.
When the manager has a brain fart, he’s held accountable.
When the General Manager makes a poor trade or signing, he’s held accountable.
When Kennedy or Werner sticks their feet in their mouths, they’re held accountable.
Why isn't John Henry held to same standard?
An owner can speak two ways: with his mouth or his wallet and Henry has shut both. Even someone like Jeremy Jacobs would talk more than once a year.
Do people want Henry to talk? Are the my hanging on his every word? Of course not but there’s something seriously broken with this club and has been broken for years. It would be nice if the guy in charge would say something other than “we’re raising ticket prices but Fenway Park tours are nice too.”
Weren’t you arguing that you thought that ownership avoided the winter “Fireside Chat” because they were legitimately afraid of getting physically assaulted and beaten up?
I am 99% sure that was you and, if it was, I am not sure that your opinion on ownership/fan relations should be taken with anything more than a massive grain of salt
"Soothe" came off unintendedly dick-ish. My bad. I only used you as an example because you at least indicated what you'd want to hear from him. So, using that as a marker, I just don't think -- even if he said all that -- the perception would change. Is that Henry's fault? Possibly. Probably. But here we are. I don't think it "helps" anything for him to go out there and say stuff that's just going to piss off the vast majority of customers because they'll hear what they want to hear (or what they're told to hear by their favorite talking head) . . . regardless of why that is and even if its 100% his fault.
Jeremy Jacobs did talk annually. And 79.3% of Bruins fans thought he was a raging cock anyway. If he hadn't given his annual address, it might have jumped to 84.8.
I believe since BOS did not pay the CBT last year, it would be their second highest pick (so a 2nd rounder) and the accompanying loss in overall draft allocation, plus $500K lost in IFA money. If I'm reading this correctly anyway...
https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-qualifying-offer-how-the-one-year-20-million-deal-works-plus-candidates-likely-to-receive-qo/
There is an enormous amount of chatter going on Twitter about Snell going to the Yankees.
Makes a lot of sense for a team going for it right now with an aging core.
Makes a lot of sense for a team going for it right now with an aging core.
The issue isn’t volume or cost, it’s value. If there are two good values, sure. But imo Cease is a better value than Monty and defo Snell, both of whom have concerns we’ve talked about a lot. Cease has a really high ceiling.
What? You have to account for the value lost for selling off those players. Are you realy arguing that trading Mayer+ for Cease is a better play than Snell or Montgomery? Are you in John Henry’s will or something?
I sincerely think that being exposed to Belichick for 20+ years has totally warped the expectations that some people have for communication from New England sports management.
“In Bill We Trust” became a sort of shorthand for “never question what is being done”.
Because you’re right. It’s a freaking baseball team. It’s entertainment. John Henry and his management team owes us answers because we’re his customers.
I realy am. Cease is three years younger. His FIP is comparable and his k/9 absolutely blow away Monty's numbers, all while playing with a horrible team. You are giving up six years of Mayer -- which would hurt -- for two years of Cease and the chance to sign him long term. You have a couple years before you need a SS and several in the system, including Rafaela and Yorke in AAA and two really high teenage prospects. And if you can extend Cease, you would have an ACE. Like, RIGHT NOW. Locking up Cease from age 28 is way less risky than Monty from Age 31. A rotation headed by Bello and Cease is a long term foundation. I'm not aware that Henry wants to bequeath me anything in his will but his people are welcome to reach out.
I see takes such as the bolded all the time, and I cannot emphasize enough how strongly I disagree. The team is not the same as it was last year. It just isn't. To start, they were horrific defensively and more or less went wire to wire without entrenched starters in the middle infield. Barring injury, that is a major difference compared to last year. More competent infield play, particularly with guys that produce a ton of ground balls like Bello, is legitimately a game changer in my eyes. Second, I am also generally a believer in the upside of the Pivetta/Crawford/Giolito/Bello group, which is part of my overall view that their pitching isn't nearly as bad as people make it out to be. A season of handling a real starter's workload under the belt for Crawford and Bello is worth something, and I think they are both better positioned to impact the team positively than they were last year. That's not to mention the fact that Giolito gives them something they didn't really have last year, which is an established innings eater that's going to take the ball every fifth day and provide some stability. If you buy into the overhaul of their pitching development and the Andrew Bailey effect, that's another positive. My point, in short, is that the two major glaring holes from last year (pitching and defense) are not "at best the same as last year." I would actually argue that they are at worst the same as last year, with real upside to be better.That's all I want said:
Everyone is dug in to either assuming that last year is their permanent ceiling, or seeing it the way you do. Nothing will change until we see them on the field. I am leaning your way but it’s not worth getting into any more.
They are not Blake Snell away from being WS contenders. But they have to build this back piece by piece, and it can't happen all at once. Blake Snell (or Montgomery) this year. Another FA next year. Emergence of some of the guys on the farm in 2025 and 26. Further development of some of the youngsters this year. A crafty trade in there. And a Bellhornian/Bill Muellerian value signing thrown in, and then yes, they are. Why not add a valuable piece this year. They have some good raw material so let's start it already.
ALSO - signing a top of the rotation guy now sets the organization in that direction, and then becomes incentive for another guys to join in (see: Seager and Texas).
I'm not remotely sold on Cease as an ace. He definitely was in 2022, yeah, but he hasn't been consistent about it. Sale was an ace when we traded for him. Price was an ace when we signed him. Cease isn't close to either but the WS are reportedly pricing him like he is. He just lost over an MPH off his fastball last year and the output clearly suffered as a result, that's concerning and not someone I want to give up a top 3 + a top 10 + a couple more top 20 guys for.
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Am I the only one who thinks the whole everyone declined to be interviewed is a non-story? There are plenty of reasons to not come to the pressure cooker that is the Boston media market before "oh no I'm going to get fired someday" - almost every manager & general manager term in sports ends in a firing, that's just the way it works.
Also, "voodoo"? Really? It's called expert player evaluation. Just so happens it doesn't correlate at all to ownership budget. I'd love to not have to pay the Hanleys and Sandovals and Prices of the world big bucks for middling production - probably what Henry never wants to risk doing again.
No - Henry knows it's impossible to avoid large and risky expenditures in this business.
I think Henry understands that the recipients of long-term FA deals are likely to be "worth it" for only 2/3 of the length of the contract, give or take. I think he is trying to avoid the ones that are statistically likely to only be good for 1/3.
If this is it the Sale deal does not as good.
If another arm is not added there is no defense for a Red Sox offseason that has arguably made the biggest weakness in 2023 worse.
The last rumor I saw about ANY of the Boras four was an exchange between the Cubs owner and Boras. Since then there really has been nothing of substance - just speculation. We really don't know what is going on.
Tim Anderson, 5 million for 1 year.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39575829/tim-anderson-marlins-agree-1-year-5m-deal-sources-say
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/39575829/tim-anderson-marlins-agree-1-year-5m-deal-sources-say
Wonder if he's got a triggered opt out in there. If not, this is a fantastic signing. His health was a mess last year and he was clearly not right in May, but when he came back in July:
7 IP 6 H 0 BB 9 K 0 ERA 0.68 FIP 1.39 xFIP
Small sample of course but he's clearly got some ability when his body's not falling apart.
Taken from Ken Rosenthal's notes:
Through Aug. 9, the night Lorenzen pitched a no-hitter for the Phillies, he had a 3.23 ERA in 122 2/3 innings. Lorenzen threw 124 pitches in that game, 17 more than his previous career-high, and the effect on his subsequent performance — an 8.01 ERA in 30 1/3 innings — was noticeable. Still, Lorenzen finished with 153 innings, 55 1/3 more than his total in 2022, his first as a full-time starter.
Michael Lorenzen is 32, made $9.25 million last year. 2023 was the first year Lorenzen pitched more than 100 innings since 2015.
In Detroit he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings. While his groundball rate dropped to 42.2% and his strikeout rate declined slightly to 19.9%, the right-hander made up for those declining peripherals by cutting his walk rate by nearly half to a 6.5% figure that was better than league average. He had an impressive pair of starts for Philly that included a 124-pitch no-hitter and lowered his ERA on the season to just 3.23, his season took a tumble from there as he got shelled for 30 runs (27 earned) in 30 1/3 innings of work with a whopping 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts.
Through Aug. 9, the night Lorenzen pitched a no-hitter for the Phillies, he had a 3.23 ERA in 122 2/3 innings. Lorenzen threw 124 pitches in that game, 17 more than his previous career-high, and the effect on his subsequent performance — an 8.01 ERA in 30 1/3 innings — was noticeable. Still, Lorenzen finished with 153 innings, 55 1/3 more than his total in 2022, his first as a full-time starter.
Michael Lorenzen is 32, made $9.25 million last year. 2023 was the first year Lorenzen pitched more than 100 innings since 2015.
In Detroit he posted a 3.58 ERA with a 3.86 FIP in 105 2/3 innings. While his groundball rate dropped to 42.2% and his strikeout rate declined slightly to 19.9%, the right-hander made up for those declining peripherals by cutting his walk rate by nearly half to a 6.5% figure that was better than league average. He had an impressive pair of starts for Philly that included a 124-pitch no-hitter and lowered his ERA on the season to just 3.23, his season took a tumble from there as he got shelled for 30 runs (27 earned) in 30 1/3 innings of work with a whopping 15 walks against just 18 strikeouts.
Goodness. For that price, I would have loved Anderson being brought into the fold. I'm betting on a strong rebound.
Boston could have cross-trained Story at 3B (he's played there before) and shared the DH spot, with plenty of ABs to go around and much-needed depth gained at SS (and Story insurance)
I'd think part of the appeal for Anderson was getting a full season of PAs before hitting the market again next year. We wouldn't have been able to offer that after the Sale trade.
Now that is a deal we could have signed. I am not the biggest Urshela fan, but he fit the needs of our team and clearly wasn't expensive. To me this means that the Front Office must be confident in what they have even if what they have includes Dalbec...
Yea I mean I cannot believe that’s the cost.
If he’s healthy that seems like a legitimate misstep in not bettering that offer.
If he’s healthy that seems like a legitimate misstep in not bettering that offer.
And maybe he isn't healthy. We certainly don't know, but it does really seem like a missed opportunity to have a competent back up for 1B/3B. I mean Casas will need days off as will Devers... We don't have a lot of options to fill in on those days.
This tweet from Cotillo yesterday appears of note: "McAdam said on our pod last night that they've stayed engaged with [Montgomery], so nothing really new there. Unless Henry opens up the wallet/raises his self-imposed budget (yes there's a hard cap) then no progress will be made." In particular, the reporting is that there is a "hard cap" on payroll standing firmly in the way of any Montgomery. Perhaps we do need to give away Jansen and his 2024 salary before Montgomery becomes a real option. If so, I would prefer they announce they are out on JM barring any unforeseen developments and we going to battle with the guys we got. At least we could then turn the page on the off season and stop being disappointed about the continued absence of any last minute pleasant surprises .
Or at least let's see what we have before blocking guys. If it ends up they need a RHH bench bat they can find one later. Same with Anderson. What's the point of blocking Grissom?
I have to think that's it. I have to think for a guy at his age, a back-up role could be the end of his career if he struggles in 200 PA.
Oh, come on.. It could be many things... Given he broke his pelvis last June, perhaps they may have had health concerns.. Or maybe Urshela wanted to be somewhere that would give him more playing time than BOS would.
https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/37895403/angels-gio-urshela-likely-season-broken-pelvis
there's your lefty. Sox could not get interested in Snell at his price, so they went for the path of least resistence. Next.
Yes, I think it's the playing time - Gio has a pretty clear path to being the regular 3b in Detroit, and go back on the market next winter. He would not have had the same opportunity for regular ABs here.
I guess my read on the Cotillo comment is they aren't saying no at a time when a lot of teams ARE saying no.
The situation is really strange because none of the Boras four have signed and more teams are saying they are NOT interested than are.
It makes me think maybe Philly swoops in on Montgomery.
The situation is really strange because none of the Boras four have signed and more teams are saying they are NOT interested than are.
It makes me think maybe Philly swoops in on Montgomery.
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